Beltran for Cano and Kennedy? I hope not!

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

On Metsblog:

"On Wednesday�s episode of NY Baseball Digest with Mike Silva, Frank Russo of The Deadball Era suggested a possible deal between the Mets and Yankees involving Carlos Beltran, Robinson Cano and Ian Kennedy."

This is a joke, right? I can see considering moving Beltran for another stud -- but not sorry-assed Robinson Cano.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Smells wacky to me.

I don't see it happening. It's just idle hot stove chatter from people who want something attention-grabbing to talk about.

[willpie]

Yikes.
No thank you.

[metirish]

Cano seems like a total jerk , and in his own words he plays hard "99 percent of the time" ...



more importantly I would like to keep Beltran.

[Guest sharpie]

Rob Neyer wrote about it today. I don't get ESPN Insider so I don't know what he said about it, however.

[Guest AG/DC]

It's counter-intelligence leaked by the Mets to (a) make their fans suddenly appreciate Beltran and ( remind them that they're still in a better position right now than Yankee fans.

[metirish]

sharpie wrote: Rob Neyer wrote about it today. I don't get ESPN Insider so I don't know what he said about it, however.

] OK, just for fun � There's one simple reason why the Mets won't (or rather, shouldn't) make a deal like this: If you trade a great player and don't get a great player back, you lose the deal. Carlos Beltran is a great player. Year in and year out, he's one of the best players in the National League. Jose Veras (or Brian Bruney) is not a great player. Ian Kennedy is not a great player, nor likely to become great. "Another prospect" might be decent someday, but also is not likely to be great. Which leaves Robinson Cano, who's not as bad as you think. You probably know that Cano was a huge disappointment this season. But that's almost completely because of the season's first five weeks. From May 4 through the end of the season, Cano batted .300/.327/.452 � right in line with his .303/.335/.468 career numbers. Cano turns 26 in a couple of weeks, and we expect him to improve some as hitter over the next two or three years. His defensive numbers have been all over the map, but I think it's safe to assume he'll never be a great fielder. Beltran is six years older than Cano. Two or three years from now, Cano might actually be better than Beltran. But if you're the Mets, having just come off two terribly crushing seasons, are you going to wait two or three years for a trade to pay off?

[Fman99]

NO NO NO NO NO NO NONONONONONONONO. Cano-Beltran? No.

Thank goodness this is just bored media speculation not grounded in fact.

[Gwreck]

Not mentioned there is that Beltran is also the best defensive player in the league at his position and impossible to replace at the level he brings.

[Guest Kong76]

Mblog: Frank Russo of The Deadball Era suggested a possible deal<<<

The Deadball Era is a neat little site, but Mr. Russo suggesting a trade is
hardly newsworthy or an indication that the Mets and Yanks are considering
trading with each other. They rarely have, and certainly not for marquee
players like a Carlos Beltran.

Nonsense. Never gonna happen.

[metsmarathon]

the sole benefit of this trade is that it would clear a ton of salary.

if that salary can afford you a cc sabathia, and a thick bullpen, then it might be worth considering.

but generally, no, i do not support this deal.

[metsmarathon]

cano is better than we're giving him credit for, but beltran is better than he's generally given credit for, so i think it evens out. on that end. the problem with cano is that i don't like what appears to be his mindset. he needs to be better motivated, at least thats what the sports talk radio tells me. beltran, while very laid back, never makes me question whether he's motivated to play.

if what this team really needs is grit, then this trade is a step in the wrong direction.

from a cost vs. production standpoint, though, its tough to beat. especially if the yanks were to really eat all of cano's money. the one problem, natch, is what do we do with the rest of our gaggle of 2bmen, and what do we fill centerfield with? mike cameron?

what is cano signed for anyways?

[metsmarathon]

="cot's baseball contracts"]Robinson Cano 2b 4 years/$30M (2008-11), plus 2012-13 club options * signed extension 2/08 (avoided arbitration, $4.55M-$3.2M) * 08:$3M, 09:$6M, 10:$9M, 11:$10M, 12:$14M club option ($2M buyout), 13:$15M club option ($2M buyout) * 1 year/$490,800 (2007), re-signed 3/07 * 1 year/$0.381M (2006) * signed 1/01 as amateur free agent from the Dominican Republic * ML service: 2.153

for comparison...

="cot's baseball contracts"] Carlos Beltran of 7 years/$119M (2005-11) * signed as a free agent 1/05 * $11M signing bonus o $5M at signing 1/05, $2M 6/15/05, $2M 1/15/06, $2M 1/15/07 * 05:$10M, 06:$12M, 07:$12M, 08:$18.5M, 09:$18.5M, 10:$18.5M, 11:$18.5M * full no-trade clause * $22M ($5.5M annually from 2008-11 salaries) deferred at 1.72% compounded interest * club agreed to not offer arbitration after 2011 season * award bonuses: $0.1M each for Silver Slugger, Aaron Award, Gold Glove, most All Star votes in league, BA/TSN/AP MVP or Player of Year; $0.15M each for LDS MVP, LCS MVP; $0.2M each for 2nd-5th in MVP vote; $0.25M for WS MVP; $0.5M for first MVP; $1M for second MVP; $1.5M for third and subsequent MVPs * perks: hotel suite on road, 15-person suite at home games, player to purchase post-season tickets, club agreed to lease ocular enhancer machine (device that throws numbered & multi-colored tennis balls at 150 mph) * Beltran to donate $0.3M annually to charity (half to club charity, half to charity of player's choice) * 1 year/$9M (2004), avoided arbitration 1 /04 * 1 year/$6M (2003), lost arbitration 2/03 ($6.95M-$6M) * 1 year/$3.5M (2002), avoided arbitration 1 /02 o award bonuses: $0.1M for MVP, $25,000 for ALCS MVP, $50,000 each for All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, WS MVP * 1 year/$0.425M (2001) * 1 year/$0.35M (2000) * 1 year/$0.2M (1999) * drafted 1995 (2-49) * agent: Scott Boras * ML service: 9.014

so that's $12.5M in '09, $9.5M in '10, and $8.5M in '11 that we'd save, even if the yankees don't pick up a nickel, plus a minimum of $2M if the team doesn't pick up the $14M option in '12...

hmm...

for further comparison, beltran vs. cano:

win shares 2008:
33 vs 12
win shares 2007:
27 vs 21
WARP 2008:
9.3 vs 6.0
WARP 2007:
8.8 vs 9.5

[Guest Kong76]

But how did this rumor get any legs worthy of the numbers to chew on?

Does Mr. Russo play cards every other Wednesday with Hank's doorman?

Metsblog is one thing, was this really a talk radio topic today? Founded in what?

[metirish]

Beltran this past season may well have played the best CF of his career when you consider who was out there with him , he covered everything. I don't care if they pick up all his remaining salary and Cano's I still do not want to make this deal.

[Valadius]

Three words:

Very. Fucking. Funny.

[Frayed Knot]

Leaving aside for a second that this is almost certainly nothing more than idle hot stove chatter,
and that Beltran has full no-trade protection,
and that filling a hole at 2nd would leave a bigger one in CF ...

there are some young, under-control players you might want to bet on. But Cano isn't under control for any longer than Beltran is (unless expensive options are invoked) and I'm not sure he's the best risk to be that guy anyway.

Last 3 seasons:
BA: .342, .306, .271
OBA: .365, .353, .305
SLG: .525, .488, .410

None of which proves those trends are irreversible, but it's not a good sign when your prime numbers are headed south during the age 23-25 years (turns 26 next week). That's exactly when they should be climbing.

[smg58]

If Cano is that good, then why do Yankee fans always bring him up in trade rumors?

Kennedy interests me as a buy-low candidate. Offering Beltran would not be buying low, however.

Bruney's a tough read. Anybody can look good over 34 innings, and he did get hurt. He might be another one of those guys that winds up in every Yankee trade rumor.

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

I think Beltran's awesome, but I don't think he's untouchable the way Reyes and Wright are. I'd consider accepting a decent package for him. Cano/Kennedy/Veras is not enough, though. Cano/Hughes/Edwar Ramirez would be warmer. The Mets could sign Mike Cameron (if the Brewers turn down his option) or take a chance on Rocco Baldelli until Fartinez is ready.

That said, I'm in no rush to trade an excellent center fielder that OPS+es 130.

[Frayed Knot]

smg58 wrote: If Cano is that good, then why do Yankee fans always bring him up in trade rumors?

Because he's the one guy still young enough and good enough to fetch something in a trade and they figure that buying O. Hudson on the open market will make him unmissed.

All the other major players on their roster are pretty much untradeable due to a combination of emotional, contractual, or tough-to-replace reasons: Jeter, ARod, Posada, Mariano;
or for age/contract reasons: Damon, Matsui;
or for unproven-yet-potential reasons: Hughes
or because they're free agents: Abreu, Giambi, Pettitte, Mussina

So that leaves Cano & Joba and they don't want to deal Joba.

[Guest AG/DC]

Because the thinking is that you're always one trade away from a championship. And the Yankee fan can fall prey to the thinking that their not-yet All-Stars will fetch other teams' All Stars because (a) the Yankees can/will pay what other teams won't, ( other teams are drooling for young Yankees (who some consider, by definition, future All-Stars), and © true stars want to win, which somehow means being on the Yankees, even though they're still oh-for-the century.

[Gwreck]

Vince Coleman Firecracker wrote: I think Beltran's awesome, but I don't think he's untouchable the way Reyes and Wright are. I'd consider accepting a decent package for him. Cano/Kennedy/Veras is not enough, though. Cano/Hughes/Edwar Ramirez would be warmer. The Mets could sign Mike Cameron (if the Brewers turn down his option) or take a chance on Rocco Baldelli until Fartinez is ready. That said, I'm in no rush to trade an excellent center fielder that OPS+es 130.

A "decent" package for Beltran would be a horrible trade. If somebody wants to trade two young top-of-the-line starting pitchers in exchange for Beltran...I'd consider it. Shane Victorino and Chase Utley for Beltran? Ok, sure.

Any combination of players on the Yankees? Not a chance. I can't believe people would seriously consider this.