2008 CPF Ranking Thread

[Guest AG/DC]

I kind of grow tired of the Guys having bad years hurt the team and don't deserve anything argument every year. Guys having bad years is a reality and if anybody better was so damn available, they'd have tried them. They tried everybody.

I'm happy with the way I have it. Stokes helped the team with his bat somewhat. Heilman, like most pitchers is a negative there. He also helped more defensively. The big difference is Heilman's strikeout rate. He relied less on his fielders for his modest achievements.

[nymr83]

="AG/DC"]I kind of grow tired of the Guys having bad years hurt the team and don't deserve anything argument every year. Guys having bad years is a reality and if anybody better was so damn available, they'd have tried them. They tried everybody. I'm happy with the way I have it. Stokes helped the team with his bat somewhat. Heilman, like most pitchers is a negative there. He also helped more defensively. The big difference is Heilman's strikeout rate. He relied less on his fielders for his modest achievements.

And I grow equally tired of the "lets give guys lots of credit just for showing up" argument every year.

Why don't you address my argument that Stokes + replacement innings is still better than Heilman?

[Guest AG/DC]

I didn't make that first argument. Did you not see me state exactly how much better than a replacement pitcher I measured him to be?

I did address your argument. I was very clear.

[nymr83]

you want to talk about "relying on the defense"? Stokes only allowed 8 walks in 33 innings while Heilman allowed 46 AND beaned 9 batters for a total of 55 in 76 innings. So while Heilman may have struck people out at a higher rate he was also busy creating his own problems while Smith was doing what pitcher needs to do, not walk people and give the defense the opportunity to do their jobs.

]Did you not see me state exactly how much better than a replacement pitcher I measured him to be?

no i didn't. because if you're citing solely to ERA+ then Stokes is better, and if you're saying "well heilman pitched more" you havent explained how you measured those innings against the variation in ERA+, i've given you one way (adding the necessary number of replacement innings to the other guy with less innings) and you havent responded to that

[Guest AG/DC]

No, I'm not merely "citing solely to ERA+." No, I'm not saying "well heilman pitched more." Stop it.

Your first paragraph indicates you've read my arguments. Your third indicates you haven't.

if you want the actual formula I'm working with for pitching, it's

=(ERA+ - 60)*(IP * (2 + ((SO/9) / (LgSO/9) -1))).

And Stokes (not Smith!) wasn't doing anything of the sort. He was in the minors.

I don't want to explain it any more, because it's complex and it made more sense to me yesterday. I'm tired and you're being weird.

[nymr83]

]=(ERA+ - 60)*(IP * (2 + ((SO/9) / (LgSO/9) -1))).

i don't know whats going to make this formula better or worse than any other, but heres a suggestion: if you are including strikeouts (because the pitcher has more control over them) then you should try to include walks and homers, the other outcomes over which the pitcher has control without input from the fielders.

[Guest AG/DC]

Sure. Stokes over Heilman.

The Studly

30 Santana
29 Wright
28 Beltran
27 JReyes
26 Delgado

The Useful and the Partial

25 Wagner
24 Pelfrey
23 Perez
22 Tatis
21 Schneider
20 Maine
19 Church
18 Castillo
17 Smith
16 Easley
15 Schoeneweis
14 Castro
13 Chavez
12 Murphy
11 Feliciano
10 Sanchez
9 Stokes
8 Heilman


The Helpful

7 Evans
6 Pagan
5 Figueroa
4 Casanova
3 Alou
2 PMartinez
1 Ayala

The Benchwarmers

0 Muniz
-1 Vargas
-2 RMartinez
-3 Nixon
-4 Clark
-5 Rincon
-6 Parnell
-7 Cancel
-8 Wise
-9 Knight

The Hurtful

-10 AReyes
-11 Sosa
-12 Phillips
-13 Molina
-14 Kunz
-15 Nu�ez
-16 Aguila
-17 Niese
-18 Armas
-19 Anderson

[Frayed Knot]

revamping the bottom of my list ...

13 - Sanchez
12 - P. Martinez
11 - Chavez
10 - Schoeneweis
9 - Heilman
8 - Stokes
7 - Feliciano
6 - Pagan
5 - Evans
4 - Figueroa
3 - Ayala
2 - Vargas
1 - Alou

[nymr83]

12 points for pedro's terrible showing? i don't even know which guy to pick out because there a bunch i'd pick above him,but lets start with Schoenweis, why is he below Pedro?

[Frayed Knot]

Because bad relievers rank lower in my eyes than bad starters.

[nymr83]

But was Schoenweis really "bad"? I know he had a (well deserved) bad reputation going into the year, but the results were probably 3rd best on the team. And Pedro wasn't just bad, he was awful.

[Guest AG/DC]

I think Pedro's awfulness is over-rated. That is, I suspect it was an illusion in part.

A typical Pedro start was giving up two runs in the first, shutting the team down through the fifth, exitiing with two runners on base in the sixth, and taking a hit when those runners regularly scored.

[nymr83]

do you have numbers showing that? i'm not sure where to look to see how many he stranded and what % of them scored

[Guest AG/DC]

I don't.

[nymr83]

I'd be willing to go through his starts and figure it out, but whats the baseline? (the league-wide strand percentage)

[Guest AG/DC]

It's my thesis. I'll figure it out when I have time.

[Gwreck]

30 Beltran
29 Santana
28 Wright
27 Reyes
26 Delgado
25 Pelfrey
24 Perez
23 Tatis
22 Maine
21 Wagner
20 Church
19 Schneider
18 Easley
17 Murphy
16 Smith
15 Schoeneweis
14 Castillo
13 Feliciano
12 Castro
11 Sanchez
10 Heilman
9 Stokes
8 Chavez
7 Pagan
6 Alou
5 Figueroa
4 Evans
3 Cancel
2 Martinez
1 Vargas

[metsmarathon]

my goal in the very near term is to wind up m.e.t.b.o.t. so he can finish his retroactive schaeffer voting, and then work with him to figure out an equitable way to apply win percentages towards seasonal rankings. he's tried it in the past, and collectively, we've never been happy with the results.

he needs to figure out what to set as 'zero'

to wit, brian schneider contributed -0.65 WPA (meaning he basically took away a win and a third) in his 377 or so plate appearances. ramon castro contributed -0.57 WPA (meaning he took away a win and a sixth), but did it in only 156 or so plate appearances. not to speak for the little guy, but i think m.e.t.b.o.t. would end up considering brian schneider to be more highly ranked than castro.

but by how much?

and how do they compare to brady clark's negligible 0.04 WPA in 9 plate appearances, or ramon martinez' 0.44 WPA in 18 plate appearances?

m.e.t.bo.t.'s job isn't easy, i'll tell ya. especially when i don't give him enough of an opportunity to whir his gears.

[Guest Edgy DC]

m.e.t.b.o.t. needs to deal with defense.

[metsmarathon]

m.e.t.b.o.t. would require defensive data to use as an input, preferably data that could be compatible with WPA.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Anybody else?

[G-Fafif]

En route...

[Guest Kong76]

EDC: Anybody else? <<<

I got a list sometime this month ... it's the 3rd of November, Hoss.

[Guest Edgy DC]

A day I'll always remember.
'Cuz that was the day
That Armando was born.

Anyhow, I want to talk to TransMonk about putting Pelfrey above Reyes. I don't like it.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

="KC"]EDC: Anybody else? <<< I got a list sometime this month ... it's the 3rd of November, Hoss.

Yeah I wanna participate too. But my home computer's all broken and shit and I wasn't going to postmortem the Mets until after the WS anywhoo

[TransMonk]

="Edgy DC":2tycfqw3]Anyhow, I want to talk to TransMonk about putting Pelfrey above Reyes. I don't like it.[/quote:2tycfqw3] You wouldn't. 200 IP vs. 200 hits for guys under 25 is a good problem to have. I have no problem flipping them, although in my mind it's still pretty close.

Nymr83 Nov 05 2008 05:07 PM

Anyone want to do some arguing? name a guy i shouldnt have above another guy (that we havent already talked about much) and maybe you'll bring me around or vice versa. this thing would be alot more fun if more people would challenge others' rankings instead of posting their own and waiting for an average.

Edgy DC Nov 06 2008 07:31 AM

OK. You accuse a lot of fellas of being counterproductive who I think were pretty unproductive, but not a net negative. Argenis Reyes, though, really did subvert the system with his bat. His glove was pretty OK, but not enough to get him on or near my chart. I realize it's only one point, but I'd give it to any number of CameoMets before him. And you need to Schoeneweis another e.

Nymr83 Nov 06 2008 11:16 AM

Who should I add to take the place of A.Reyes?

Edgy DC Nov 06 2008 11:35 AM

Alou and Ayala seem notably absent.

Frayed Knot Nov 06 2008 12:04 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 06 2008 01:23 PM

If you want some argument starter-offers then these could serve as a jumping off point. As compared to the emerging (but as yet incomplete) consensus: - Transmonk is noticably high on Pedro & Marlon Anderson low on Castro - Vic Sage is high on (possibly various things) but also Ayala low on Feliciano - Vince Firecracker is high on Murphy, Stokes, Figueroa & Vargas low on Santana, Heilman, Feliciano & Easley - FMan is high on Evans low on Sanchez - AG/DC is high on Wagner & Casanova low on Murphy & Pedro - Smg58 is high on Wagner, Murphy, Heilman & Ayala low on Perez, Sanchez, Feliciano, - NYmr is high on Stokes & Casanova low on Castillo & Heilman - Grimm is high on (pop tarts) plus Feliciano, Stokes & Ayala low on Castro & Heilman - GWreck is high on Alou low on Pedro _ Frayed Knot is high on Pedro low on Schoeneweis ... so you can take those variances to either review your vote to see if it needs adjusting or to make a case as to why others should be seeing things your way.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 06 2008 12:17 PM

Well, let me just say that Pop-Tarts are yummy.

Gwreck Nov 06 2008 12:28 PM

smg is also low on Beltran. Not everybody will agree with me and put him at 30 but I can't see how he could fall to 26.

Frayed Knot Nov 06 2008 12:43 PM

Yeah, that was the only one where Beltran was at least top 3 as VCFC's was the lone one where Santana wasn't either 1st or 2nd. Other than those, the ones I listed were those which varied from the current consensus by at least 4 slots one way or the other. Perhaps not surprisingly, the relievers are more over the map than most others. Wagner: as high as 25, as low as 13 Murphy: 21 - 11 (PotG) Feliciano: 14 - 4 Heilman: 19 (PotG) - 1 Pedro: 18 (PotG) - 2 Stokes: 13 - 4 Figueroa: 11 - off list Ayala: 10 - off

John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 06 2008 01:21 PM

edit -- forgot 3rd offensive tier, massive restructuring tk

John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 06 2008 01:29 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 06 2008 01:51 PM

brb

Edgy DC Nov 06 2008 01:41 PM

Too very much love for Argenis. His was misbegotten into this season. Four walks and one extra-base hit in 121 plate appearances. I mean, yeah, he hit .218, but it was a particularly empty .218. Bring back Jeff Duncan.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 06 2008 01:46 PM

Hey, nobody hated A reyes any more than me. I suppose I could tuck him beneath Casanova, but then again 3 pts for marlon Anderson also seems kinda high.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 06 2008 01:49 PM

fixed: 30 Santana 29 Wright * 28 Beltran 27 Delgado 26 Reyes 25 Pelfrey 24 Perez 23 Maine * 22 Tatis 21 Murphy 20 Wagner 19 Smith 18 Feliciano 17 Church 16 Schneider 15 Easley 14 Schoeneweis 13 Heilman 12 Castillo 11 P. Martinez 10 Castro 9 Sanchez 8 Chavez * 7 Stokes 6 Evans 5 Figueroa 4 Vargas 3 Pagan 2 Anderson 1 Ayala ______________ -1 Alou -2 Casanova -3 Cancel -4 A Reyes -5 Muniz -6 R. Martinez -7 Knight -8 Parnell -9 Armas -10 Niese -11 Rincon -12 Nixon -13 Kunz -14 Clark -15 Molina -16 Aguila -17 Phillips -18 Nunez

Nymr83 Nov 06 2008 01:57 PM

My new list. I've dropped Argenis for Ayala. Thank you FK for that list of who was away from the consensus on certain players. "too low" - My opinion on Heilman and his horrific ERA hasn't changed. I suppose I could bounce Castillo higher than the 3 relievers I have directly above him if someone wanted to try and convince me, I'm not too set on that. "too high"- Maybe Casanova deserves to be lower but who do i raise above him? As for Stokes I'm not going to budge on saying that he is the 4th best reliever we had this year. the 3rd best reliever i have at (17) i have him at (13) and then two relievers immediately following him. if i was going to move him down i'd move those two relievers down with him, and the only candidates to move up would be Castillo and Chavez, anyone want to argue for that? 30. Santana 29. Wright 28. Beltran 27. Reyes 26. Delgado 25. Pelfrey 24. Tatis 23. Maine 22. Church 21. Perez 20. Wagner 19. Murphy 18. Smith 17. Schoenweis 16. Schneider 15. Easley 14. Castro 13. Stokes 12. Feliciano 11. Sanchez 10. Castillo 9. Chavez 8. Pagan 7. Evans 6. Martinez 5. Heilman 4. Casanova 3. Cancel 2. Figueroa 1. Ayala

Vince Coleman Firecracker Nov 06 2008 02:57 PM

="Frayed Knot":3vu69kog]Yeah, that was the only one where Beltran was at least top 3 as VCFC's was the lone one where Santana wasn't either 1st or 2nd.[/quote:3vu69kog] I understand why people would put Santana higher than Wright, Beltran or Reyes, and I know if you count batter vs pitcher match-ups Santana would be right with (if not a little past) the other three; but I think that contributions made over the course of multiple games help the team more than contributions made in a single game. I'm not adamant about it though- I can see why Santana would be put that high, I just feel differently. Frayed Knot Nov 06 2008 09:31 PM Lunchbucket goes high (higher than anyone) on Feliciano after trashing him all year as Mr. Put-the-Leadoff-Batter-On. High also on Heilman; low (lowest actually) on Church G-Fafif Nov 07 2008 05:30 AM 30 Johan Santana 29 Carlos Delgado 28 David Wright 27 Carlos Beltran 26 Jose Reyes 25 Mike Pelfrey 24 Oliver Perez 23 Fernando Tatis 22 Ryan Church 21 John Maine 20 Billy Wagner 19 Daniel Murphy 18 Brian Schneider 17 Joe Smith 16 Damion Easley 15 Scott Schoeneweis 14 Pedro Feliciano 13 Nick Evans 12 Luis Ayala 11 Brian Stokes 10 Aaron Heilman 9 Ramon Castro 8 Duaner Sanchez 7 Endy Chavez 6 Pedro Martinez 5 Luis Castillo 4 Robinson Cancel 3 Argenis Reyes 2 Angel Pagan 1 Nelson Figueroa John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 07 2008 07:18 AM ="Frayed Knot":mioxkc9p]Lunchbucket goes high (higher than anyone) on Feliciano after trashing him all year as Mr. Put-the-Leadoff-Batter-On. High also on Heilman; low (lowest actually) on Church[/quote:mioxkc9p] Yeah, I don't like that. But there were just so many guys in that middle tier group. And Church and Feliciano appeared in a roughly equal amount of games, both sucked half the time and were effective the other half. Eh, But, OK 30 Santana 29 Wright * 28 Beltran 27 Delgado 26 Reyes 25 Pelfrey 24 Perez 23 Maine * 22 Tatis 21 Murphy 20 Wagner 19 Smith 18 Church 17 Schneider 16 Feliciano 15 Easley 14 Schoeneweis 13 Heilman 12 Castillo 11 P. Martinez 10 Castro 9 Sanchez 8 Chavez * 7 Stokes 6 Evans 5 Figueroa 4 Vargas 3 Pagan 2 Anderson 1 Ayala ______________ -1 Alou -2 Casanova -3 Cancel -4 A Reyes -5 Muniz -6 R. Martinez -7 Knight -8 Parnell -9 Armas -10 Niese -11 Rincon -12 Nixon -13 Kunz -14 Clark -15 Molina -16 Aguila -17 Phillips -18 Nunez Edgy DC Nov 07 2008 08:26 AM ="G-Fafif":se3wr9nl]30 Johan Santana 29 Carlos Delgado 28 David Wright 27 Carlos Beltran 26 Jose Reyes 25 Mike Pelfrey 24 Oliver Perez 23 Fernando Tatis 22 Ryan Church 21 John Maine 20 Billy Wagner 19 Daniel Murphy 18 Brian Schneider 17 Joe Smith 16 Damion Easley 15 Scott Schoeneweis 14 Pedro Feliciano 13 Nick Evans 12 Luis Ayala 11 Brian Stokes 10 Aaron Heilman 9 Ramon Castro 8 Duaner Sanchez 7 Endy Chavez 6 Pedro Martinez 5 Luis Castillo 4 Robinson Cancel 3 Argenis Reyes 2 Angel Pagan 1 Nelson Figueroa[/quote:se3wr9nl] How many of you folks do I have to chase away from Argenis Reyes 2008? He's bad for you. He won't look out for you. And Lusi Ayal is in another stratosphere that he shouldn't be sniffing. G-Fafif Nov 07 2008 08:58 AM ="Edgy DC":2g5hatbg]How many of you folks do I have to chase away from Argenis Reyes 2008? He's bad for you. He won't look out for you. And Lusi Ayal is in another stratosphere that he shouldn't be sniffing.[/quote:2g5hatbg] Must...not...compile...own...rankings. Must...copy...Edgy's...paper. Nymr83 Nov 07 2008 12:07 PM ="G-Fafif":2xmtej86] Must...not...compile...own...rankings. Must...copy...Edgy's...paper.[/quote:2xmtej86] I think he's grading them, so you'll probably get a better grade that way. Kong76 Nov 09 2008 01:07 PM Here's my first quick swing, I'm sure it'll be changed (by me or someone) ... Santana Wright Beltran J Reyes Delgado Pelfrey Perez Tatis Church Maine Easley Murphy Smith Schneider Feliciano Wagner Schoeneweis Castro Castillo Sanchez Heilman Evans Stokes Chavez P Martinez Pagan Figueroa Vargas Ayala Cancel Frayed Knot Nov 09 2008 07:32 PM ]I'm sure it'll be changed (by me or someone) ... We may cajole, browbeat or humiliate you into changing your vote but no one will change it for you. And besides, your list is closer to the overall consensus than anyone's. That said, you may want to explain how you have Feliciano with his 24 ER, 57 Hits & 26 BBs ranked ahead of Wagner and his 12, 32 & 10 in almost the same amount of IPs (53 v 47) Kong76 Nov 10 2008 04:18 AM I saw a couple of things I'd change after posting it, I'll humiliate myself thank you. Feel free to browbeat. As for Wagner, why is everyone ignoring his IDL factor? Edgy DC Nov 10 2008 07:43 AM Italian Drama League? Internet Dating Lapse? Inconceivieably Dead Leftarm? Gwreck Nov 10 2008 08:06 AM Inconvenient (trip to the) Disabled List? Kong76 Nov 10 2008 03:47 PM Gwreck's is better, mine was I Don't Like'im. Frayed Knot Nov 10 2008 05:09 PM Well here's where our consensus sits at the moment after 13 lists plus our PotG results: 30 - Santana 29 - Wright 28 - Beltran 27 - Reyes 26 - Delgado 25 - Pelfrey 24 - Perez 23 - Tatis 22 - Maine 21 - Church 20 - Wagner 19 - Schneider 18 - Murphy 17 - Easley 16 - Smith 15 - Schoeneweis 14 - Castillo 13 - Castro 12 - Feliciano 11 - Sanchez 10 - Chavez 9 - Heilman 8 - Stokes 7 - Martinez 6 - Evans 5 - Pagan 4 - Figueroa 3 - Ayala 2 - Vargas 1 - Alou Received votes but fell short: Cancel Casanova Anderson A Reyes Sosa Shut out: Aguila Armas Clark Knight Kunz R. Martinez Molina Muniz Niese Nixon Parnell Phillips Rincon Wise A couple of places on the big board are close and could change a bit on account of revisisions while others are pretty much set in stone at this point. Elster88 Nov 10 2008 06:29 PM What's the deadline for submission? Frayed Knot Nov 10 2008 08:26 PM Nothing specific. We tend to not wrap things up until conversation starts to peter out and the list is as set as its going to be - although we are kind of reaching that point. Edgy DC Nov 11 2008 07:27 AM I'm Raul Casanova. Reconsider me. John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 11 2008 07:41 AM ="Edgy DC":36ifpmno]I'm Raul Casanova. Reconsider me.[/quote:36ifpmno] One of the great mysteries of the year was his non-reappearance. We saw an awful lot of Cancel, and enough of Molina to assume neither one was going to out-hit Casanova. That said, the very fact that he was not given another chance sorta makes whatever small case Cancel has to be his superior. m.e.t.b.o.t. Nov 18 2008 12:50 PM after an extended period of inactivity, m.e.t.b.o.t. has been dusted, appropriately lubricated, and finally activated. m.e.t.b.o.t. has manipulated the win percentage data from the 2008 baseball season and, implementing a fancy new bit of mechanical programming and intricately crafted, steampunked sprocketry, has calculated the rankings for the 2008 new york metropolitan baseball players. the list is as follows. 30 Carlos Beltran 29 David Wright 28 Johan Santana 27 Carlos Delgado 26 Jose Reyes 25 Mike Pelfrey 24 Oliver Perez 23 Fernando Tatis 22 John Maine 21 Damion Easley 20 Ryan Church 19 Brian Schneider 18 Joe Smith 17 Daniel Murphy 16 Duaner Sanchez 15 Pedro Martinez 14 Billy Wagner 13 Luis Castillo 12 Claudio Vargas 11 Angel Pagan 10 Moises Alou 9 Endy Chavez 8 Jorge Sosa 7 Ramon Castro 6 Robinson Cancel 5 Pedro Feliciano 4 Brian Stokes 3 Nicholas Evans 2 Scott Schoeneweis 1 Marlon Anderson 0 Ramon Martinez -1 Aaron Heilman -2 Argenis Reyes -3 Carlos Muniz -4 Raul Casanova -5 Nelson Figueroa -6 Trot Nixon -7 Brandon Knight -8 Luis Ayala -9 Brady Clark -10 Robert Parnell -11 Tony Armas Jr. -12 Gustavo Molina -13 Ricardo Rincon -14 Abraham Nunez -15 Andy Phillips -16 Edward Kunz -17 Jonathon Niese -18 Chris Aguila -19 Matt Wise this is performed via a modification of an earlier graphical methodology attempted by human poster metsmarathon. m.e.t.b.o.t. has streamlined and vastly improved the implementation of this methodology. the graphical results are depicted below. a description of the methodology will be forthcoming. m.e.t.b.o.t. requires significant rewinding after posting images, as it requires significant mechanical effort to appropriately arrange pixels into something which humans might have a chance of comprehending visually. John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 18 2008 12:59 PM Heilman doesn't rate? Wow! Look at Tatis! Look at Show! Look at Alou! Dig Joe Smith-over-Wagner! I love m.e.t.b.o.t. metirish Nov 18 2008 01:04 PM I can see now why Schoeneweis and Feliciano are still in Minaya's plans , excellent work metbot. Nymr83 Nov 18 2008 02:33 PM I highly approve of MetBot's placement of Heilman. Edgy DC Nov 18 2008 02:42 PM And I of his placement of Argenis Reyes. Gwreck Nov 18 2008 03:26 PM The shocker to me is Jorge Sosa. Was it the 4-1 W-L record for Sosa that put him so high? m.e.t.b.o.t. Nov 18 2008 03:36 PM m.e.t.b.o.t. wonders if the graphic shows up. can any human poster verify this? essentially, what m.e.t.b.o.t. has done is determined a likely maximum value of win percentage added would be for both hitters and pitchers, based upon data reaching back into the 1970's. the yearly leaders in win percentage added ranged from about 6 up to a maximum of 12 for performance enhanced human barry bonds. the typical second place win percentage leader ranged from 5.5 to about 8. m.e.t.b.o.t. determined, using convenience and simplicity as a primary factor, that 7.5 win percentage added would make for a reasonable expected maximum, which works well with an expected maximum plate appearances of 750. and so, a rate was determined that for every 100 plate appearances, 1.0 WPA would be expected of the best batter. for pitchers, m.e.t.b.o.t applied the same methodology. the yearly leaders in pitching ranged between 5.5 and 6.5, for the most part. the sole outlier was dwight gooden in 1984, with a remarkable 9.0 wpa. interestingly, despite the total innings pitched of top pitchers decreasing during the previous 30-40 years, the maximum wpa has remained fairly static. m.e.t.b.o.t. selected 6.5 as the reasonable expected maximum win percentage added for pitchers, which works very well with an expected maximum innings pitched of 250. therefore, for every 33.1 innings pitched, 1.0 WPA would be expected of the best pitcher. with 250 innings pitched, a pitcher in the national league would expect nearly 100 plate appearances, as evidenced by johan santana's 81 plate appearances in 234.1 innings pitched. if the best pitcher were capable of being the best hitter, he would be expected to have 7.5 wpa in 250 ip + 100 pa. m.e.t.b.o.t hopes that this all makes sense to human crane pool forum participants. the terminal m.e.t.b.o.t. is utilizing to communicate these 2008 rankings and associated methodology is undergoing a forced reboot. as such, m.e.t.b.o.t. will resume discussion later this evening. G-Fafif Nov 18 2008 05:53 PM Robinson Cancel sends m.e.t.b.o.t. a glass of 3-in-One. Edgy DC Nov 18 2008 07:10 PM I got the graphic. Reconsider Raul, m.e.t.b.o.t. m.e.t.b.o.t. Nov 18 2008 09:11 PM unfortunately, m.e.t.b.o.t. is not programmed to reconsider single players; m.e.t.b.o.t. can only reevaluate methodologies and perform recalculations. m.e.t.b.o.t. has performed a cursory review of the methodology used to arrive at the above listed rankings for 2008 and m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined that raul casanova is appropriately ranked relative to his teammates. in approximately 61 plate appearances, raul casanova contributed -0.35 wpa. based upon the current methodology whereby 1 inning pitched is considered equivalent to 3 plate appearances, there are 32 players who played more than raul casanova. to outrank a player with more playing time, raul casanova would have to significantly outperform that player. based on these calculations as performed by m.e.t.b.o.t., raul casanova has outperformed only one player - nelson figueroa, with -1.25 WPA in 1.50 time units (3*IP + PA) the series of diagonal lines in the picture show, essentially equivalent win percentages for the purpose of ranking. as can be seen in the lower left corner, brian stokes, nick evans, and scott schoeneweis all have approximately the same equivalency (0.80, 0.74, and 0.73, respectively) the updated picture below shows raul casanova, and those teammates immediately above and below him in equivalency. equivalency is defined by where that diagonal line intersects the y-axis, and is determined by the formula: WPA + [ ( 3*IP + PA ) / 100 ] = equivalency. this is m.e.t.b.o.t.'s attempt at mimicking wins above replacement, or win shares, or the like. modifying the relationship between playing time and win percentages is the most straightforward means of altering the ranking methodology. this can be approximated by varying the slope of the diagonal lines. as can be imagined, the proximity of those players directly behind raul casanova in equivalency implies that as you alter the relationship, you either lift nelson figueroa or trot nixon above raul casanova. nelson figueroa had a lower wpa in more playing time, while nixon had a higher wpa in less playing time, yet raul casanova was slightly ahead of each of them in equivalency. in fact, there is no way to draw a line on this graph which would have raul casanova and 29 other players on its positive side. even drawing an imaginary line up and to the right from casanova so as to exclude the cluster of billy wagner, moises alou and robinson cancel yields 31 better metropolitans. based on the rule of 3 ip = 1 plate appearance, raul casanova does not merit placement in the top 30 metropolitans of 2008. in fact, modifying this relationship such that 2.5 ip = 1 pa, raul casanova only improves to 33rd, and causing 2 ip = 1 pa brings him up to 32nd. m.e.t.b.o.t. does not consider it fruitful to reevaluate the placement of robinson cancel further. were m.e.t.b.o.t. capable of the emotion, m.e.t.b.o.t. would, however, consider this above exercise very welcome given the recent extended period of inactivity. regarding the rankings of robinson cancel and jorge sosa, despite the apparent statistical inadequacies of their respective performances in 2008, these two players each had positive win percentages added in very little playing time. jorge sosa had 0.48 wpa in 21.7 innings and 2 plate appearances, while robinson cancel had 0.46 wpa in 52 plate appearances. jorge sosa[/url:sg2qqlax] had more good outings than bad outings, and most of his bad outings came in blowouts. his four worst outings had wpa of -0.128, -0.117, -0.108, and -0.078, while his four best outings had wpa of 0.275, 0.172, 0.138, and 0.110. robinson cancel[/url:sg2qqlax] had more bad outings than good outings, as can be expected of any hitter. but when he contributed, his contributions were fairly positive. his four worst games had wpa of -0.214, -0.117, -0.076, and -0.070, while his four best outings had wpa of 0.334, 0.240, 0.170, and 0.84. one further point that m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined may be of potential interest to human cranepoolers. the colored tails leading diagonally down to the positions of the 5 primary starting pitchers in 2008 reflect the impact to their position that their offiensive contributions has had. at the upper right, the tail end of the line, is where the pitcher would place based only on his pitching performance. for instance, johan santana had a wpa of 4.08 in 234.1 innings pitched, but had a wpa of -1.27 in 81 plate appearances. also, if a human poster using mozilla firefox were to right click on an image and select the "view image" option, a much larger, more viewable image is available to be seen. this image can then potentially be zoomed into even further, to better aid comprehension. m.e.t.b.o.t. is unable to confirm whether this is applicable using internet explorer. Edgy DC Nov 18 2008 09:24 PM Two methodology issues to consider: 1) One inning isn't equal to three plate appearances, but rather to three outs. In fact, it should be equal to about two thirds of three outs --- two outs. 2) The third out is a question of defense, which puts Casanova in positive terriotry. Positive territory, m.e.t.b.o.t.! m.e.t.b.o.t. Nov 18 2008 10:07 PM m.e.t.b.o.t. has no source for defensive input. for all of m.e.t.b.o.t.'s intents and purposes, defense is entirely the result of the pitches thrown, not the fielders to which the pitches are hit. m.e.t.b.o.t. recognizes the inherent flaw in this, but there is no data source avaiable which can provide a remedy within the win percentage framework. m.e.t.b.o.t. would be a very happy emotionless springwound contraption indeed if one day someone were capable of producing such a data source. ... how would human poster edgy dc compare the relative playing time of johan santana and jose reyes, defense aside? a strict perspective would be to consider plate appearances for and against, in which case johan santana would have an edge of approximately 1053 to jose reyes' 754. IP X 3 + H + BB should approximate total plate appearances against, give or take gidps, errors, and csa's. that gives santana 972, plus his 82 plate appearances for 1053. scaling those plate appearances against by 2/3, santana has 648, plus 82 plate appearances for, for 702. applying this playing time adjustment to all pitchers actually causes raul casanova to drop from 35th to 36th, as nelson figueroa's increased number of batters faced per inning pitched gives him a boost. if m.e.t.b.o.t. were to go to the extreme step of granting this increased 1/3 playing time to the batters, then raul casanova improves all the way up to 34th place. raul casanova amassed neither sufficient playing time nor positive contribution of win percentage to warrant inclusion in the top 30 players as determined by m.e.t.b.o.t. raul casanova participated in 13 games as a catcher. while his defense, according to baseballperspective.com was exemplary in those 13 games, rating 7% better than average, that, too, does not appear to be sufficient to escalate him into the top 30 players. worth noting, too, is the 11% better than average defensive rate posted by argenis reyes in 27 games at second base, and marlon anderson's 34% better than average defense at first base in 6 games, and 11% better than average defense in 25 games in left field. raul casanova would have to pass these two position players, along with averagely defensive ramon martinez to make it into the top 30, unless the 5 pitchers ahead of him were to fall by the wayside. Gwreck Nov 18 2008 11:38 PM So Beltran came in first under the Metbot system, without even factoring in defense? Wow.

[nymr83]

Anyone want to do some arguing? name a guy i shouldnt have above another guy (that we havent already talked about much) and maybe you'll bring me around or vice versa.
this thing would be alot more fun if more people would challenge others' rankings instead of posting their own and waiting for an average.

[Guest Edgy DC]

OK.

You accuse a lot of fellas of being counterproductive who I think were pretty unproductive, but not a net negative. Argenis Reyes, though, really did subvert the system with his bat. His glove was pretty OK, but not enough to get him on or near my chart. I realize it's only one point, but I'd give it to any number of CameoMets before him.

And you need to Schoeneweis another e.

[nymr83]

Who should I add to take the place of A.Reyes?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Alou and Ayala seem notably absent.