Carlos Delgado

[Frayed Knot]

Dunn's HRs would leave any park ... including Yellowstone.
I doubt GAB is affecting his totals all that much.

He wouldn't be my favorite player to get; kind of one-dimensional, slow of foot and an absolute butcher with a glove. But .400 OBPs and prodigious power can't be easily dismissed.

That said, it's too early for me to worry about '09 1Bmen at this point.



Welcome aboard DDD

[metirish]

Frayed Knot wrote: . I'd be very surprised if a deal with him for beyond this year even gets discussed prior to the season ending.

I can't find it but I read recently that Boras has told or will tell the Mets that no such talk will take place during the season.I'm not crazy about Boras but he positions his players to maximize their potential earning power and if he has a good season and that means getting a five year deal from a Kansas or Seattle or whoever then that's where he'll go.

[metsmarathon]

for his career, dunn has an ops of 0.939 at home, and 0.881 on the road.

year	park	multi-yr BPF	single yr BPF	hOPS	rOPS
2001	CF	105	98	0.850	1.027
2002	CF	104	110	0.896	0.814
2003	GABP	95	97	0.888	0.740
2004	GABP	98	93	0.990	0.925
2005	GABP	100	103	1.057	0.805
2006	GABP	104	105	0.864	0.847
2007	GABP	104	103	0.965	0.915

his home/road splits don't always track the park factor. in 03 and 04, when GABP played as more of a pitchers park, he still hit better there than on the road. and the huge difference between his 05 splits seem to be more an exception than the rule. but i could be wrong. or maybe he just doesn't hit better when he wakes up in a hotel...?

[seawolf17]

AG/DC wrote: Well, I don't care about injury prone-ness, so much as I care about how he comes back from that last injury. A year and a month is a long time to be out.

That's what I'm saying.

I'd take Dunn at first base in a second. Dude can MASH.

[smg58]

My guess is Johnson gets traded before the spring is out if he's ready to play, because the Nats gave Dmitri Young a hefty extension and have too many outfielders to justify rolling the dice with his glove in left. I bet Johnson winds up back in pinstripes.

I think an .880 OPS (i.e., his road splits) is a realistic expectation for Dunn if he came here. That's certainly not bad, but for somebody who's a defensive liability in left and presumably would be at first (the Reds have had the opportunities to move him to first if they wanted to), it's not overwhelming. Teixeira's played in a friendly park too, but his road OPS is .915 over the last three years, he handled Atlanta just fine, and he's a big asset with the glove.

[Guest AG/DC]

I took a long look at it, and right now our best bets at first base in 2009 are

1) Marlon Anderson
2) Ben Johnson
3) Michel Abreu

So, yeah, they'll be doing something, but we have a long hard season before finding out what. And that's good.

[nymr83]

Dunn's OPS+ the last 3 years 141, 114, 136. he's 27.
Teixeira's are 144, 126, 150, he's also 27.

It looks like you'd rather have Teixeira especially with defense counted in, but theres nothing wrong with Adam Dunn, he'd certainly be an upgrade over the spriraling Delgado (161, 131, 103 and 35 years old)

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

AG/DC wrote: I took a long look at it, and right now our best bets at first base in 2009 are 1) Marlon Anderson 2) Ben Johnson 3) Michel Abreu So, yeah, they'll be doing something, but we have a long hard season before finding out what. And that's good.

Is Delgado going to retire? I know they won't sign him to the deal he has now or anything remotely close. But if he has a decent season and will come respectably cheap, he's be a better option than any of those three.

[nymr83]

i think his having a decent season and coming cheap are mutually exclusive. either he sucks and we don't want him back or he plays well in his contract year and prices himself out of what the Metsshould pay (paying for an aging 1stbaseman is not generally a wise investment)

[metirish]

Dunn plays in a great hitters park but who knows what Citi Field will play like, not that it would matter to him. Reds are coming to Shea in May and I'd like to go see them.

[Guest Triple Dee]

smg58 wrote: My guess is Johnson gets traded before the spring is out if he's ready to play, because the Nats gave Dmitri Young a hefty extension and have too many outfielders to justify rolling the dice with his glove in left. I bet Johnson winds up back in pinstripes. I think an .880 OPS (i.e., his road splits) is a realistic expectation for Dunn if he came here. That's certainly not bad, but for somebody who's a defensive liability in left and presumably would be at first (the Reds have had the opportunities to move him to first if they wanted to), it's not overwhelming.

If Dunn wants to maximize his FA value, he'll be smart to package himself as a 1B. However, the Reds have an excellent 1B prospect who will take over from Scott Hatteberg very soon. Dunn may prefer a move to an AL team because of the opportunities to DH -- and in a few years his physique will be crying out "DH!"