2007 Crane Pool Forum Rankings Thread

[Zvon]

That does make me understand a lot better MM.And it makes sense.
Thanks for your explanation.

[G-Fafif]

Frayed Knot wrote: GFaFiF: This way it's presented without prejudice or agenda. Yeah but is it accurate? Do you really want to make the case for Easley being more important to this season than Wagner; or Chavez more than Heilman; or Newhan more than, well ... anyone?

I'm going by their performances as they happened, so yes, it's accurate enough for my taste.

[Edgy MD]

Sure, but in the heat of the moment, the closer tends to get screwed in PotG voting. It's something we've observed every year.

[G-Fafif]

Closer-screwing observed, including my own closer-screwing. Except that I never really felt I was gypping Wagner when I'd issue (mostly) half-point after half-point. I think living with it 162 times clued me in to how truly overrated closers are in the scheme of things. Wagner's greatest skill in 2007 was not being Looper, Benitez and Franco. That was a pretty valuable skill in and of itself, but there were relatively few games where I felt Billy Wagner's hand made the big difference. I didn't do POTG voting in past years but even in '06 I sensed Wagner was a larger game-to-game presence. It was probably the nature of the wins the Mets were collecting early on in '07. When they really and desperately needed an All-Star closer later (though, yes, wins in April count the same as wins in September), Billy had back spasms.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I agree, G. I'm not sure that Schaefer is gypping the closer as much as it's exposing that it's not such a role that gets credited with more importance than it deserves.

Their only job, really, is to not screw up.

It was different when they'd truly be "firemen," coming in to a game to get their team out of a jam. How many times this year did Billy Wagner enter a game with runners on base? If it was more than twice I'd be surprised.

If it was zero I wouldn't be surprised at all.

[Edgy MD]

I can't understand how cloers are bemoaned for decades (at least in Sisk's case, and Franco and Benitez are working on it) when they screw up, and dismissed when they succeed.

If their failures are so costly, how are their successes so negligible?

I want to hear from m.e.t.b.o.t.

[Frayed Knot]

Zvon wrote: How do older non active players get to move up this list?

Un-retire and play again!!
Think about it; a retired player has already been judged to be below the also-retired guys ahead of him on the list so it's not like that's going to change short of us reviewing and changing past scores. So all he can do is hold his place or drop as he gets passed by active and future players.

If you want to argue specifically about Trachsel you can fish up the lists where he played and make a case why he shouldn't as high as he was. The 2003 list would be a good one to start since that's where he racked up much of his ponts.

More discussion of this topic took place HERE if you want read a similar exchange between myself and 'Slugger' which has a few more details on the same subject.
Funny how it's usually Trachsel that stirs folks into action.

On the other hand if it makes you feel any better, he'll certainly drop at least 3 spots this winter as Wright, Reyes and Beltran pass him by -- which reminds me that we'll soon need icons for both Reyes & Beltran and I believe you're the guy in charge of those.

Edited October 12, 2007 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

Because all they're contributing is a lack of failure.

They're asked to get three outs without giving up two runs.

[Edgy MD]

Which (1) in fairness, isn't always as simple as that*, (2) isn't easy to do perfectly fifty times a year, (3) is generally against better competition than any other pitcher is asked to face, (4) is a rhetorial trick, as virtually all success can be termed a "lack of failure," certainly all success by pitchers

If it was so easy, why is it so perceived that all these Mets have failed at it?

---

*Of Wagner's 77 career saves with the Mets (playoffs included), I count 30 (38.96%) that have been with him entering with merely a one-run lead, and one in which he entered the game with one out in the eighth and a two-run lead and Jimmy Rollins on first.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I know that some saves are more difficult than others, but many of them are not all that difficult.

And I don't believe that the ninth inning closer faces tougher hitters than any other pitchers. The opposing team can be at any point in their lineup when he comes into the game. They could be at 3-4-5 or at 7-8-9. And the available pinch hitters in the ninth inning may or may not be dangerous.

I don't like, and don't agree with, the whole role of the modern day closer. Does Wagner contribute to wins? Sure he does. But not nearly as much as the guys who score or drive in runs or the guys who pitch six, seven, or eight innings.

Bullpens are important. If you add up the Schaefer points of Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, Smith, Schoeneweis, Mota, Sele, and Sosa (excluding his starts) you'll get a total that shows how important the bullpen is. But the way things are today, I can't argue that any one individual should be that highly ranked.

[Edgy MD]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: I know that some saves are more difficult than others, but many of them are not all that difficult.

But, as you see, in general they've been more difficult than you categorize them.

Yancy Street Gang wrote: And I don't believe that the ninth inning closer faces tougher hitters than any other pitchers. The opposing team can be at any point in their lineup when he comes into the game. They could be at 3-4-5 or at 7-8-9. And the available pinch hitters in the ninth inning may or may not be dangerous.

This is stubborn. Of course, they're more dangerous. Ether a team trying to come back in a save situation in the ninth has their better hitters come up, or they empty their bench to get their worst hitters out. Some pinch-hitters are better than others. All pinch-hitters are up there because they're considered more of a threat than the guy they're replacing. When was the last time you saw a closer face a pitcher?

I don't like, and don't agree with, the whole role of the modern day closer.

I don't blame you. This is no reason to derogate the closer himself or his performance.

Does Wagner contribute to wins? Sure he does. But not nearly as much as the guys who score or drive in runs or the guys who pitch six, seven, or eight innings.

Or, in Damion Easley's case, the guy who was a dangerous pinch-hitter for a month.

How many Mets had an eight-inning start in 2007? Who would argue that a spotless save is more valuable than that. I wouldn't.

But a bunch of them might be. I certainly haven't placed any single performance by a closer above any quality start of even six innings. But a closer's performances come more frequently.

Bullpens are important. If you add up the Schaefer points of Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, Smith, Schoeneweis, Mota, Sele, and Sosa (excluding his starts) you'll get a total that shows how important the bullpen is. But the way things are today, I can't argue that any one individual should be that highly ranked.

I'd argue that the featured guy in the pen throwing the highest leverage innings all year, almost flawlessly the first half of the year, being worth more than a guy who was the best pinch-hitter for a month is pretty compelling.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, then maybe Easley has too many points. That doesn't mean that Wagner has too few.

I'm not putting Wagner down in any way. I just see him as a supporting player (because of his role) and can't see him as one of the top ten most important players on the team.

[seawolf17]

This is going make no sense out of context once JD/JCL jumps up a player designation, but if Valadius wants to bitch about a player ranking, how about we get Garry Templeton out of the Top 500? What a waste of a roster spot. Let's get these 2007 rankings up STAT and get him outta there.

[Frayed Knot]

Leaving aside the value of closers for a second, my main concern is one of producing a list through a particular method and sticking with that list even if it produced some illogical answers simply on the basis of, 'well, that's how things turned out'. The idea here is to produce a list where the order can be explained so even if no one else agrees with it, it should at least make sense to you.

For example:
* Blending pitchers & hitters is the toughest part of this project, but does Maine - who had an All-star half season anyway - really deserve to be behind Delgado?

* How do Endy's fewer ABs, lower OBA & lesser power land him 2 slots above Castillo and 6 above Gotay?

* Mota & Schoeneweis ahead of Smith?? In approx 1/3 more IPs they both gave up more than 2x as many runs

[Frayed Knot]

seawolf17 wrote: This is going make no sense out of context once JD/JCL jumps up a player designation, but if Valadius wants to bitch about a player ranking, how about we get Garry Templeton out of the Top 500? What a waste of a roster spot. Let's get these 2007 rankings up STAT and get him outta there.

Figuring that there'll be about 9 or 10 new names up once this year gets added, one could follow along with JCL's assigned players and get a good look at the ones who are destined to go bye-bye.

[Valadius]

Who said I was doing any bitching? All I've done is pointed out an oversight on Zvon's part in his rankings. I haven't said a thing about players from previous seasons.

[seawolf17]

Wait! Sorry Val. I get you and Zvon confused sometimes. My bad.

[Valadius]

LOL. No problem seawolf. I can see where you might get us confused, seeing as we both showed up here around the same time.

[Edgy MD]

Both of you are a pretty good score in Scrabble.

[dgwphotography]

30 - Wright
29 - Beltran
28 - Reyes
27 - Maine
26 - Perez
25 - Delgado
24 - Hernandez
23 - Wagner
22 - Glavine
21 - Alou
20 - Heilman
19 - LoDuca
18 - Milledge
17 - Feliciano
16 - Castillo
15 - Green
14 - Sosa
13 - Easley
12 - Castro
11 - Gotay
10 - Martinez
9 - Smith
8 - Anderson
7 - Pelfrey
6 - Chavez
5 - Gomez
4 - Schoeneweis
3 - Mota
2 - Valentin
1 - Burgos

[Zvon]

seawolf17 wrote: Wait! Sorry Val. I get you and Zvon confused sometimes. My bad.

You consider my observations, questions and opinions "bitching" ?
Cripes.
Tough crowd.

FK:
Reyes is a done deal. Edgy has it.
Ill make a Beltran during tonights games.

[nymr83]

Hitters: Wright, Beltran, Reyes, Delgado, Alou, Green, Easley, Gotay, Milledge, Castro, Castillo, LoDuca, Anderson, Chavez, Valentin, Gomez, Ledee, Difelice, Franco, Newhan, Conine, Ambres, Hernandez, Johnson, Alomar.

wright was easily first.
i had to put beltran second with an OPS+ 24 pts higher than jose's.
i put delgado next because he had over 200 more ABs than Alou and they were not bad at bats.
alou edged out green for the next spot based on the stronger OPS+ and only a 100 AB difference.
easley and gotay followed with milledge, all of whom MUST rank higher than castillo who put up worse numbers in roughly the same number of ABs.
castro followed and then castillo.
finally i got to loduca, sorry but with an 81 OPS+ you are HURTING at the plate big time, if not for the at-bats i'd have probably buried him entirely.
Anderson was great in ver limited ABs
everyone else is sorted roughly by a combination of ABs and OPS

[Edgy MD]

What's catching worth?

[nymr83]

nothing so far. i'll make position adjustments once i integrate the hitters and pitchers into 1 list

[Guest Kid Carsey]

[Vic Sage]

Edgy DC wrote: What's catching worth?

Well, LoDuca kept the ball from rolling to the backstop. So there was that.

[Edgy MD]

That implies it's not worth anything and I know you don't believe that.

Lo Duca was clearly the best catcher on the Mets this season by all defensive measures.

[Valadius]

Well, to give us an update on where we feel, on average, taking the 9 submissions made thus far:

30.00 - Wright (30)
28.89 - Beltran (29)
27.22 - Reyes (28)
26.89 - Perez (27)
26.56 - Maine (26)
24.78 - Delgado (25)
22.67 - Hernandez (24)
22.22 - Glavine (23)
22.11 - Alou (22)
22.00 - Wagner (21)
19.22 - Heilman (20)
19.00 - Lo Duca (19)
18.33 - Green (18)
16.33 - Feliciano (17)
15.11 - Castillo (16)
14.89 - Milledge (15)
14.22 - Sosa (14)
13.89 - Easley (13)
12.56 - Castro (12)
11.11 - Gotay (11)
9.22 - Martinez (10)
8.78 - Anderson (9)
8.22 - Chavez (8)
7.78 - Smith (7)
5.22 - Schoeneweis (6)
5.00 - Gomez (T-5)
5.00 - Pelfrey (T-5)
3.33 - Valentin (3)
3.22 - Mota (2)
0.44 - Sele (1)
0.33 - Burgos
0.33 - Newhan

32 players have received rankings points so far. Sele, Burgos, and Newhan are fighting it out for the final spot - they are the only three players not on all 9 lists submitted thus far. Endy Chavez's ranking may be affected by outliers - his points received thus far are 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 15, 16.

[nymr83]

Hitters: Wright, Beltran, Reyes, Delgado, Alou, Green, Easley, Gotay, Milledge, Castro, Castillo, LoDuca, Anderson, Chavez, Valentin, Gomez, Ledee, Difelice
(see my previous post)

Pitchers: Perez, Maine, Hernandez, Glavine, Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, Smith, Sosa, Martinez, Pelfrey, Schoenweis

Perez edged Maine out on superior ERA in 15 less innings and identical records, Hernandez edged Glavine out for 3rd because his ERA was 3/4 of a run better despite the missing innings.
the 4 relievers that follow glavine were the only 4 that were good, sosa had some nice stretches too and his final numbers are serviceable. martinez had a few good starts but didnt pitch enough to be higher. pelfrey and suckweis are only there to fill the 30 spaces i have to assign.

overall:
30 Wright
29 Beltran
28 Reyes
27 Perez
26 Maine
25 Hernandez
24 Delgado
23 Alou
22 Glavine
21 Green
20 Wagner
19 Heilman
18 Feliciano
17 Easley
16 Gotay
15 Castro
14 LoDuca
13 Milledge
12 Smith
11 Castillo
10 Anderson
9 Sosa
8 Martinez
7 Chavez
6 Valentin
5 Gomez
4 Ledee
3 Difelice
2 Pelfrey
1 Schoenweis

[nymr83]

ok so heres the questions i have to ask:

1. how is Castillo higher than Easley and/or Gotay on most lists?
Castillo was simply inferior to both of them playing the same position in roughly the same number of at-bats.

2. why the LoDuca-love? he had an 85 OPS+ and is not a good defensive catcher

3. why is joe smith so low? i know he pitched less innings than wagner/heilman/feliciano (who he should be below) but they were quality innings