Worries Here, 2007 Edition

[A Boy Named Seo]

-An outfield defense with Alou and Green at the corners has the potential to be quite bad. I think we'll see plenty of Endy again this year and hope Beltran wears his running shoes in center.

-Aaron Heilman's wonky elbow.

-Paul Lo Duca. Hit a career-high 39 doubles last year and was well over his career BA last year, maybe benefiting from seeing lots of fastballs with Reyes on in front of him? If he reverts to his career norms, he doesn't really bring much to the team except for his world-renowned heart and his CitySearch-like mastery of the Long Island club scene.

-I'm a little worried about second base. Valentin was only really crappy at hitting lefties last year (.599 OPS in 112 PA) and Easley was okay and should negate that (.764 OPS in 124 PA in '06). Both are 37, though, and each could reasonably drop off the face of the earth with who to fill in? Ruben Gotay? Is there someone I'm forgetting about? Hopefully it won't come to that.

-David Wright. Something's up with him. The Baseball Forecaster shows he had a 4% decline in fly ball% on balls in play in the second half last year. He also had a 1% decline in line drives, which made his ground ball percentage go up 5%. I thought that might be a clue, but I'm not so sure.

He put the ball in play 249 times in the second half (AB+ROE+Sac+SacFly) and the 4% FB decline from those 249 AB's amounts to only about 10 at bats. The Forecaster also makes reference to some Voros McCracken stuff that shows that the rate of HR to flyballs is about 10%, so even if all those fly balls that became grounders in the second half magically became flyballs again, we're still just talking about just one extra homer.

So I don't know what the hell happened, but his 1 HR this spring doesn't freak me out any less.

What else?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Glavine and Hernandez show their age, and Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez show their inexperience.

Perez may turn out to really suck this year. I know they think he's "figured it out" but in the past on any given day he was more likely to be bad than good.

[Guest Kid Carsey]

Vegas has the Mets and Yanks in a subway series from what I heard the
other day on espnradio.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Perez might turn out to suck, but to me he's one of the most exciting players on the team this year because of the unknown. He's dazzling when it all falls together.

Maine and the gopher balls is an issue.

[Edgy MD]

If David would get off the catwalk, I'd be a little less worried. Little is more depressing than a guy overexposed and regressing --- with tons of sad jerseys marked down at Modell's.

On the ohter hand, he went into a big second-half slump back in 2003 that left him with end-of-year numbers that were fine but hardly justified the scouts' drooling over him. The Mets diagnosis, and the consensus, was that he worked too hard and tired himself out. That may be too much buying into the all-American boy scout crap, but his vicious start the next year supported that.

So maybe Willie gives him a little more first-half rest this season.

[nymr83]

i dont want to play the 20/20 hindsight game and blame willie for not resting him, but i'd certainly try to rest him a little more this year.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, neither do I. Just a suggested adaptation.

My foresight was to keep him the hell away from the homer contest. I'd claim that I was right, but don't ask me to be able to demonstrate a cause-and-effect relationship.

[nymr83]

I can't demonstrate the relationship either, but theres enough anecdotal evidence to make me (if i were Mets ownership/management) want to politely ask Mets players not to participate, even if i had to give them something extra for that purpose ("hey Carlos, you don't really want to go to the HR Derby do you? wouldn't you much rather spend the All-star Break in cancun with your wife and kids on my dime?")

[Guest patona314]

could someone tell mr. franco to shorten his swing? he's 47 for gods sake! actually i take that back. the more he swings like that the sooner he's off the team. i love the guy, but.............

i'm worried about a righty outfielder off the bench.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Nymr83 wrote: I can't demonstrate the relationship either, but theres enough anecdotal evidence to make me (if i were Mets ownership/management) want to politely ask Mets players not to participate, even if i had to give them something extra for that purpose ("hey Carlos, you don't really want to go to the HR Derby do you? wouldn't you much rather spend the All-star Break in cancun with your wife and kids on my dime?")

I don't know, it didn't seem to slow down Ryan Howard any. I'd say rest is definitely something he could've used more of, so skipping the HR derby would absolutely fall under that umbrella, but aside from Bobby Abreu, is there anyone else who stopped hitting homers after a home run derby?

[Edgy MD]

I don't get what the hate is about with Franco. He is what he is, but the idea that he's been suckin' it up is just unfounded. He was better in the first half than in the second, but that job is hard.

I won't sit here and tell you he was good, but rooting for him to fail is right out.

[Guest holychicken]

This thread makes me worry. . .does that count?

[Edgy MD]

See, chicken loves Franco.

[Theoldmole]

[Edgy MD]

Wagner heat doesn't scare righthanded batters anymore, and Duaner and Bradford aren't around to help him out with them.

[metirish]

I don't know if Wagner even thinks much of his heat anymore....

[Guest iramets]

Edgy DC wrote: I don't get what the hate is about with Franco. He is what he is, but the idea that he's been suckin' it up is just unfounded. He was better in the first half than in the second, but that job is hard. I won't sit here and tell you he was good, but rooting for him to fail is right out.

It's not hate--it's worries, and well-founded ones. I worry about someone's future when he gets to an advanced age in general, because you're usually paying a big salary for someone who can no longer do the job, but it far more severe a problem when that elderly player is coming OFF a bad season, and doubly troubling when he's coming off a bad second half.

We all understand that players will, at some point, lose the ability to compete on a MLB level, and that sometimes the loss of ability is sudden. When it comes in-between seasons, maybe you can ask "Well, who knew?" (though you can generallly get a pretty good clue from looking at the player's birth certificate), but worry alarms go off when a very elderly player has a brutal August and September and you've still got him under contract. Not good.

Probably it's even worse when the player, like Franco, (actually either Franco) is regarded as a clubhouse leader, because that means the club will find all sorts of rationales for continuing to give him playing time. My main problem is the roster spot, and the key situations you're using him in, when he can't do the job anymore and everyone on earth recognizes that, but still he gets into games that you desperately need to win.

[metirish]

I have faith that if Willie thinks Franco can't help the team then he'll be gone,not sure about Omar though.

[Edgy MD]

I'm speaking to the notion of hoping he fails. It wasn't a comment of yours.

I don't think you'll find, "Well, who knew?" attached to any comment I made.

I don't think his salary is an issue. When his roster sport becomes an issue, I hope it's not a lingering one.

[Guest iramets]

Edgy DC wrote: I'm speaking to the notion of hoping he fails. It wasn't a comment of yours.

Understood.

Edgy DC wrote: I don't think you'll find, "Well, who knew?" attached to any comment I made.

No, it's not. But often when a disaster occurs, with plenty of signs well-advertised in advance, people do use this as an excuse for having let it happen. I'm extending my neck a bit, and saying, before the fact, that Franco fulfills all of the descriptors of a trainwreck about to happen (if you consider a wasted roster-spot a potential trainwreck) and that people who are worried about the wisdom of keeping him (as opposed to keeping as a coach) at this point have something going, and that if the disaster happens, some people felt comfortable in dealing with the problem pre-emtively. The "Who knew?" argument comes up when Franco's suipporters say, "Yeah, sure, you say nthat now--but where were you beforethe season started?" I'm just saying I'm right here, and willing to be called "wrong" if Franco has a great season. I don't think he will. That's what this thread is for.

Edgy DC wrote: I don't think his salary is an issue. When his roster sport becomes an issue, I hope it's not a lingering one.

Salary's much smaller than the roster spot, but now that the season's underway, it is an issue anytime you need a pinchhitter and Franco comes up short. Already, it's an issue because of the limited value you're getting in terms of defensive versatility and running speed. Unless he hits better than a much more versatile, much more speedy player, it's an issue the first time you want some sub to do something that Franco can no longer do.

[Edgy MD]

I don't think anyone will be surprised when Franco fails. Everybody else has by his age.

I think what happened to him the second half of last year was mostly about his strike zone judgment going to hell. Not him overswinging.

[metirish]

Franco's Mets legacy might well be encouraging Beltran to take that curtain call,personally I would like to see him have a few more good moments,he might not be done yet folks.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm hoping that if it becomes apparent that he really is wasting a roster spot (and I suspect that will happen unless the Mets jump to another 10 game lead) that the Mets will do whatever they need to do to replace him.

Making him a coach would be nice, but aren't they at their limit for coaches? I know the Red Sox just had an issue where they had to get Johnny Pesky out of uniform and off the bench during games because of that limit. I don't know what the number is. Maybe the Mets have room to expand the coaching staff, but maybe they don't.

Anyone know the answer?

[Centerfield]

He'd be allowed to sit on the bench if he grew a pony tail, pretended he was a girl and massaged the other players.

[Edgy MD]

The Pesky story stated that uniform personnel in dugouts during games was limited to players, managers, and six coaches.

Now, there's plenty of ambiguity there. (1) They don't mention trainers, and (2) they don't specify bullpen personnel.

The Mets currently have seven guys listed as coaches, with five stationed in the dugout during the games, and two --- plus the bullpen catcher --- stationed in the pen.

Dugout:
Jerry Manuel: Bench Coach
Sandy Alomar Sr.: Third Base Coach
Howard Johnson: First Base Coach
Rick Peterson: Pitching Coach
Rick Down: Hitting Coach

Bullpen:
Guy Conti: Bullpen Coach
Tom Nieto: Catching Instructor

That implies that there's room for one more, but, as I said, there's ambiguity. Plus, Franco wants to play, and if someone claimed him off of waivers, he might well continue --- not that fear of losing his coaching services should scare the Mets away from cutting him loose if otherwise necessary.

[Guest iramets]

I'm just saying you got a .700 OPS, a ton of Ks and GIDPs, no position, no pinchrunning ability, and very little chance that he's going to rebound, and a strong indicator (second half of last season) that's he's completely done--the time to address this is now, not 50 or 75 ABs from now. Some of those ABs will mean ballgames.

This is like a challenge trade. Willie is saying in effect, "He's not done. All of yuz think he is, but I know better, and I'm willing to risk some ballgames that I'm right."

We will see. If the Mets finish a few games out and Franco has an awful year, I like us to recognize that this was one place they could have picked up a few key ABs from the git-go.

[metirish]

I really have a hard time thinking that if the Mets finish a few games out it might be because of Franco,aren't we putting too much stock into a bench player?

[Edgy MD]

Sure. But they've won a few standing by while many wanted a player dispensed with --- Oliver, Valentin pop to mind. And lost a few --- Matsui, I guess, and Danny Graves.

They might again. Certainly players have performed after a team (or several teams) bet definitively on them being done. Every team goes through this.

It's tough. When Franco flails and some Greg Turtletaub starts burning it up in AAA, may he become our pinch hitting specialist. I still think Milledge was a better choice than Tucker for the playoff roster.

But Franco hasn't had his first at-bat this season.

[Edgy MD]

metirish wrote: I really have a hard time thinking that if the Mets finish a few games out it might be because of Franco,aren't we putting too much stock into a bench player?

Maybe.

[Guest iramets]

I'd say that your #1 bat off the bench (cuz what other function is Franco serving?) will get some disproportionately big ABs. If Franco bats 10 times this month, 8 of them might be in the ninth inning when a hit means a ballgame.So it's not just any 8 at bats, it's 8 ABs with a man in scoring position in a close game with two outs in the 9th.

It's a luxury to have a bat on the bench, a Rusty Staub, a Dick Stuart type who can't do much but hit., but it's a gross luxury if he can't even do that.