NLCS Rotation

[Guest Rotblatt]

So! What should we do? What do we think Willie will do?

Glavine's a lock to start Game 1, and he should. I don't think we should try and use Glavine on short rest, since it hasn't worked with him in the past.

If you accept that premise, then Glavine, Maine & Trachs will each get 2 starts if we go to 7 games, so in terms of Maine & Trachs, the order comes down to who would perform better where. Historically, Trachs has been better at Shea, and Maine's been better away from Shea, which makes me lean a little towards starting Trachs in Game 2. In that scenario, he'd start at Shea in Games 2 & 6. Maine would start away in Game 2 & at home in Game 7. Glavine would start at home in Game 1 & away in Game 5.

Game 4 is a little tricky, but if we're leading the series at that point, I'd go with Perez. He has the potential to toss off a gem, but if he doesn't, we turn to Oliver and our bullpen.

Any good arguments for using Glavine on short rest and trying to get him into 3 games? He'd be on short rest twice, and frankly, I'd rather have Glavine pitch twice on full rest . . .

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I just posted the following in the ongoing rotation thread:

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Okay, for the NLCS, I'd go Glavine in Game 1, Trachsel in Game 2 (he'd be on his usual four days rest, which he seems to need) and Maine in Game 3. Unless the Mets lose the first three, I'd let Perez pitch Game 4, gnashing my teeth the entire time. (I'd much rather they gave his roster spot to Bannister or Williams, but I don't see that happening.) The danger there is that if the Mets win in seven games, you're looking at Perez in World Series Game 1 and 5. A win in six games and you could at least open with Maine. Perez would be the Games 2 and 6 guy, but by Game 6 you could possibly pitch Glavine on three days rest in Game 6 and Maine on three in Game 7.

[Willets Point]

Rotblatt wrote: Any good arguments for using Glavine on short rest and trying to get him into 3 games? He'd be on short rest twice, and frankly, I'd rather have Glavine pitch twice on full rest . . .

Ditto.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I wouldn't consider Glavine on short rest until the World Series, depending on the situation. But not in the NLCS.

[Guest Rotblatt]

I just saw that, Yance!

I'm glad we're in agreement. ;-)

We don't really have many pieces to move around here. Bullpen management is going to be key in the 7-game series. Willie's probably going to have to give his starters a little more rope in the NLCS.

If we come up against St. Louis, I think we can count on our offense giving us some breathing room, but I'm not sure about San Diego. They have some nice pitchers there and a solid bullpen.

Thankfully, we've got 3 days to rest our pen a little.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Glavine, 1 and 5.

Maine, 2 and 6

Trachsel, 3 and 7.

Perez, 4.

[Guest cleonjones11]

Edgy DC wrote: Glavine, 1 and 5. Maine, 2 and 6 Trachsel, 3 and 7. Perez, 4.

I agree....Darren Oliver quick hook for Perez if needed?

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I think Oliver probably is the only long relief option. But with eight guys in the bullpen, you can pull your starter in the third inning and still get through the game without any long stinits by any of the relievers.

Having said that, I'd like to see some of the starters pitch into, and complete, the 7th or even the 8th inning in the NLCS. There's no reason to think that Glavine and Trachsel and Maine can't do that.

Even Perez can do that about one start out of ten.

[Theoldmole]

I'm with Rotblatt. Perez always has a chance to be brilliant, although the others probably have more of a chance to be capable.

I'm going with the idea that Willie and Peterson have seen something in Perez, and in spite of the general consensus here that Willie and Peterson are idiots, to quote the immortal words of Captain Louis Renault:

]We musn't underestimate American blundering. I was with them when they blundered into Berlin in 1918.

[Guest SwitchHitter]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Having said that, I'd like to see some of the starters pitch into, and complete, the 7th or even the 8th inning in the NLCS. There's no reason to think that Glavine and Trachsel and Maine can't do that.

I agree with both parts of this. I think that's part of what makes someone a good starter is their ability to go into the 7th or the 8th. And I think that these guys are good starters and can do that.

[Theoldmole]

I agree, sort of. Except that this particular team is built around a strategy that involves starters going six. It sort of offends my old-fashioned, Kinerian sense of the game, which says that there's no reason a started can't finish a game. Or it would, if the Mets weren't doing it and making it work. As it is -- GO BULLPEN!

[Willets Point]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Having said that, I'd like to see some of the starters pitch into, and complete, the 7th or even the 8th inning in the NLCS. There's no reason to think that Glavine and Trachsel and Maine can't do that.

I have reason to think that Glavine can't do that since he so often is pulled in the 5th or 6th inning, but maybe he can go the extra mile in the playoffs.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Glavine went 7 or more 10 times this season, about one third of his starts.

[Willets Point]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Glavine went 7 or more 10 times this season, about one third of his starts.

Ugh, I didn't think it was that bad.

[Guest vtmet]

one of the benefits of the Pads extending the series is that the Cards can't set up Carpenter for game 1, he's pitching tonight so best case for the Cards would be him pitching Thursday on 3 days rest...if there is a game 5 for them, that also moves their number 2 guy back as well...

[Elster88]

Bannister in game 4. Since that's not happening I agree with the general concensus.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

I do not want to see Oliver Perez start a game in this series. Yes, I know there's a chance he pitches brilliantly and yes, I love his stuff too.

HOW-EVAH, there's a way better chance that he gets wild early and throws a flat slider over the plate to Pujols with a man on base or something.

If I made the calls, I'd have Dave Williams pitching Game 4. The guy made 5 starts for us and was pretty much excellent 4 times, getting his ERA inflated by the one bad start. See here

He's also faced the Cardinals once this season and pitched extremely well.

6.1 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
The only guy who could hit him was backup catcher Gary Bennett.

That's way more than I would expect out of Perez.

[smg58]

I'm also concerned about the stamina of the pen. Willie played to win three straight (properly, I thought) by going to the pen early and often, and the Mets did win in three and everybody will be well-rested by Wednesday. Fantastic. But with two longer series coming up, the pen will wear down before the end of them if they're used the same way. So we're going to need to get six from somebody other than Glavine, and preferably more than six from him.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I agree about the heavy bullpen use in the NLDS.

I think Willie took a bit of a risk in Game 3 in LA with a lot of early pitching changes. (Obviously, it paid off.) Early in the game, he had already burned through Oliver, Feliciano, and Bradford in a close game. If the game had stayed close, he probably would have still used the pitchers that he did: Mota, Heilman, and Wagner. But if it had become an extra-inning game, he would have been left with Ring and Roberto Hernandez for what could have been a long haul. (Of course, if the game had gone deep into extra innings, Oliver Perez would also have been an option and Maine would have moved up to Game 4.)

I think I would have been less quick to go to the pen in that game. I might have tried to get a little more out of Trachsel. I also wouldn't have wanted to pull Bradford after two batters, but Chad didn't get either of the two out, so I can understand his quick exit.

I guess I'm saying I might have handled the pitching differently in that game if I was the manager. I also might not have ended up with as good an outcome.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

To me, sloppy D forced Willie's hand in yanking Trachs. An error by Wright and Reyes and the pop fly non-play got the carousel going at least an inning sooner than necessary.

If we make the plays in the game, Trax goes 5 or 6.

I don't think a heavy workload is something worth worrying about at this juncture. We're going to have it, no matter what. What we can do to mitigate that is hit like crazy, and that means, getting guys in from 3rd, which we haven't done a good job with, and making the plays in the field, which was the real cause of the only sweating we had to do in this series (think the Valentin play as a sweatmaker, and home plate DP as sweat releiver in Game 1).

I must be less a believer in Bannister than just about anyone else here. His walks & hits against are just as ugly as Perez, he's kust been luckier, with less (read: almost zero) ability to dominate. Perez will start Game 4 I'm almost certain.

The move I might like is Williams over Ring (maybe even Oliver, who hasn't been good for awhile now), just to provide xtra length if we need it.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

To me, sloppy D forced Willie's hand in yanking Trachs. An error by Wright and Reyes and the pop fly non-play got the carousel going at least an inning sooner than necessary.

If we make the plays in the game, Trax goes 5 or 6.

I don't think a heavy workload is something worth worrying about at this juncture. We're going to have it, no matter what. What we can do to mitigate that is hit like crazy, and that means, getting guys in from 3rd, which we haven't done a good job with, and making the plays in the field, which was the real cause of the only sweating we had to do in this series (think the Valentin play as a sweatmaker, and home plate DP as sweat releiver in Game 1).

I must be less a believer in Bannister than just about anyone else here. His walks & hits against are just as ugly as Perez, he's kust been luckier, with less (read: almost zero) ability to dominate. Perez will start Game 4 I'm almost certain.

The move I might like is Williams over Ring (maybe even Oliver, who hasn't been good for awhile now), just to provide xtra length if we need it.

Oliver, last 5 outings:

8 IP, 14 H, 11 ER (12.38 ERA), 1 BB, 8 K

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I like Bannister better than Perez, but Bannister wouldn't have been my choice either. I prefer Williams.

Johnny Dickshot wrote: If we make the plays in the game, Trax goes 5 or 6.

You may be right about that. Let's hope we make the plays next time around. Getting 5 or 6 from the starter would be a huge help. I'm less worried about stressing the bullpen through overwork than I am in depleting in during the course of a single game. When you've used five or six pitchers by the eighth inning, you have very few options remaining in a close game.

[Centerfield]

Williams is my first choice too, then Bannister, then maybe even Pelfrey. I would have gone with almost anyone, even taking a flyer on Humber, before I went with Oliver Perez. While the other guys may not be great, I feel like Perez is the most likely to give up 7 runs in the second and kill our chances at that game and eat up the pen.

[A Boy Named Seo]

="OlerudOwned"]I do not want to see Oliver Perez start a game in this series. Yes, I know there's a chance he pitches brilliantly and yes, I love his stuff too. HOW-EVAH, there's a way better chance that he gets wild early and throws a flat slider over the plate to Pujols with a man on base or something. If I made the calls, I'd have Dave Williams pitching Game 4. The guy made 5 starts for us and was pretty much excellent 4 times, getting his ERA inflated by the one bad start. See here He's also faced the Cardinals once this season and pitched extremely well. 6.1 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K The only guy who could hit him was backup catcher Gary Bennett. That's way more than I would expect out of Perez.

Dave Williams faced the Cards three times this year and was rocked harder than Perez was by them.

3 starts, 16 IP, 21 hits, 10 ER, 4 Homers, 6 BB, 8 K, 5.63 ERA, .308 BAA.

Oliver Perez is I guess just as likely to get torched as Williams, but at least has the potential to be lights out that Williams doesn't have.

I'd stick with Perez.

[RealityChuck]

I'd lean toward Perez. He's been pitching OK lately and definitely has more upside if he's on.

Williams would be my next choice after Perez. But he's just as likely to pitch poorly as Perez, and does not have the upside.

Bannister isn't an option. I like him, but he has not been pitching enough in the majors to be given a start in the playoffs.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

="A Boy Named Seo"] ="OlerudOwned"]I do not want to see Oliver Perez start a game in this series. Yes, I know there's a chance he pitches brilliantly and yes, I love his stuff too. HOW-EVAH, there's a way better chance that he gets wild early and throws a flat slider over the plate to Pujols with a man on base or something. If I made the calls, I'd have Dave Williams pitching Game 4. The guy made 5 starts for us and was pretty much excellent 4 times, getting his ERA inflated by the one bad start. See here He's also faced the Cardinals once this season and pitched extremely well. 6.1 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K The only guy who could hit him was backup catcher Gary Bennett. That's way more than I would expect out of Perez. Dave Williams faced the Cards three times this year and was rocked harder than Perez was by them. 3 starts, 16 IP, 21 hits, 10 ER, 4 Homers, 6 BB, 8 K, 5.63 ERA, .308 BAA. Oliver Perez is I guess just as likely to get torched as Williams, but at least has the potential to be lights out that Williams doesn't have. I'd stick with Perez.

A good point, and a stupid oversight on my part, but I'd still have more cahnfidence in Williams. Dave got torched nearly everytime he touched the ball for the Redlegs, but seemed like a new man in the blue and orange (except the 9-run Marlin drubbing).

Perez actually had a very good start where he got outdueled by Carpenter, had a decent one where he had plenty of run support and won despite putting 9 runners on in 6.2, and got smashed once. However, he just hasn't shown me enough as a Met for me to trust him. As much as I'd like to believe lightning will strike again and we'll get the the Oliver that dominated Atlanta, there's a way better chance we see the one that got flustered, lost his command, and got spanked 4-or-so times.

[nymr83]

i would do the following:

game 1 (wed): Glavine
game 2 (thu): Maine
game 3 (sat): Traschel
game 4 (sun): Perez
game 5 (mon): Glavine
game 6 (wed): Maine (though i'd go to Williams, Pelfrey, Bannister in that order if Maine were bombed in game 2)
game 7 (thu): Traschel (unless he was bombed in game 3 in which case i go to Williams, Pelfrey, Perez on 3 days rest, Bannister in that order)

i have NO confidence in Bannister, i'd prefer not to see pelfrey either even though i love the guy, he hasnt started enough in the majors down the stretch for me to want to use him in the playoffs.

when i say "bombed" in reference to maine/traschel pitching a 2nd time i mean essentially more runs allowed than innings pitched.
5 innings 4 runs while not nice isnt enough for me to not pitch them a 2nd time.

finally, i'd go to the bullpen early and often with anyone but glavine on the mound. if these guys give us 5 innings 3 runs i'd be happy enough. if the mets really want to carry 12 pitchers i'd drop ring for another guy who can be a long man (williams would be my choice.) i don't see the need for a 1-out lefty when we already have feliciano and pujols is right-handed anyway.

i would generally restrict wagner to 1 inning, the only exception i'd make is pujols up with the tying runs on base for the cardinals in the 8th inning, or if 2-3-4/ 3-4-5 were due up with a 1-run met lead entering the 8th it would be worth using wagner there.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

The thought of a rainout on Wednesday is worrisome.

The makeup game would probably be on Friday afternoon, with the series resuming as scheduled in St. Louis on Saturday.

That would leave the Mets (and Cards, of course) playing on five consecutive days. Which means they'd either need a fifth starter or they'd have to send Glavine on three days rest in Game 5.

I'd probably go with Glavine on three days. The alternative would be Darren Oliver making his first start of the year? Or do the Mets replace Ring on the roster with Williams tomorrow morning if the weather forecast looks like rain is likely?

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Forecast is looking a little more promising:

="National Weather Service"]Tonight: Occasional rain, mainly after midnight. Low around 60. East wind 7 to 15 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

And though it's early, here's the forecast for the weekend in St. Louis:

="National Weather Service"]Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.