IGT - 5/16 - Mets vs. Cards - NLCS Preview

[Zvon]

Julio gets it done.
Mets win 8-3 and thats the way to start this series in St Loo.

[Willets Point]

Game over ... would you like your spanking with habanero sauce?

[TransMonk]

Good game. Nice to beat the Cards and have Albert go 0-4.

Let's do it again tomorrow...without the rain.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Paul Simon references are a nice capper to this IGT. Thank you to the holdouts.

[Elster88]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: Usually, don't you expect some glove from batters in the 7 and 8 (w)holes? If you're not putting Nady and Matsui for their offense, why are they in the lineup?

Matsui has played a very good second base this year.

[Elster88]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: Garcia has walked 12 times and gotten 25 hits in 101 ABs so far. No note of HBPs but you got to think he has a few by now, so his OBP is around .333 or higher.

In AAA. The fact that you're making a case for Garcia is fairly pathetic. JMO, of course.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Not quite so pathetic as you might think. There is usually a fairly close and predictable relationship between AAA performance and MLB performance, and depending on the league, it may actually be harder to put up certain stats in AAA than it is in MLB.

I don't know about the MLEs (Major League Equivalents) between Columbus and Norfolk and MLB these days, but I wouldn't be surprised if it were pretty close. My larger point is that--over the course of several hundred MLB games, not just a handful of recent performances--Matsui has performed under the average MLB second baseman, particularly defensively, and the harm done by replacing him with a replacement level AAA secondbaseman would be marginal. The gain financially, of course, would be enormous.

In fact, can we look up the Mets' W-L with Hernandez in the lineup and wiht Matsui? I wonder what that would show, as long as you're so interested in short-term performance levels.

(She's my daughter. Are you suggesting that hits are not hits, and errors are not errors, at any level of play?)

OE: Garcia's lifetime OBP in MLB, going into this season, is .345, slightly above league average, Matsui's is .320, slightly below..

[Elster88]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: In fact, can we look up the Mets' W-L with Hernandez in the lineup and wiht Matsui? I wonder what that would show, as long as you're so interested in short-term performance levels.

True enough...it is a short term fielding performance that I am speaking of. But I don't think W-L with Andy and W-L with Kaz is the way to judge things, even in the short term. I'd still go with things like fielding percentage and OBP in those cases. In which case Kaz is probably still outperforming Andy.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Elster88 wrote: ="Bret Sabermetric"] In fact, can we look up the Mets' W-L with Hernandez in the lineup and wiht Matsui? I wonder what that would show, as long as you're so interested in short-term performance levels. True enough...it is a short term fielding performance that I am speaking of. But I don't think W-L with Andy and W-L with Kaz is the way to judge things, even in the short term. I'd still go with things like fielding percentage and OBP in those cases. In which case Kaz is probably still outperforming Andy.

I'm just shocked that you like certain short-term performances while dismissing others.

[Elster88]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: ="Elster88"] Bret Sabermetric wrote: In fact, can we look up the Mets' W-L with Hernandez in the lineup and wiht Matsui? I wonder what that would show, as long as you're so interested in short-term performance levels. True enough...it is a short term fielding performance that I am speaking of. But I don't think W-L with Andy and W-L with Kaz is the way to judge things, even in the short term. I'd still go with things like fielding percentage and OBP in those cases. In which case Kaz is probably still outperforming Andy. I'm just shocked that you like certain short-term performances while dismissing others.

Which others am I dismissing again?

W-L record? Do you really think that is a good indicator of Kaz's playing ability over Andy's? There are no other factors which could skew the results? Did Andy ever have to play in a game that Jose Lima pitched in?

[soupcan]

Willets Point wrote: Wasn't it an official game already before the rain delay?

This confused me as well. In Philly it was official after 4 & 1/2 innings with the home team ahead. Fine I get that, I understand it. If the home team had not been winning it would have been official after the home team and finished out the bottom of the 5th if one team had a lead.

Last night after the Mets took a 4-3 lead in the top of the 7th, it started raining hard with 2 outs and Rolen up in the bottom of the 7th. I assumed that as long as at least 5 full innings had been played that it was an official game and could be called at any time.

Cohen however said that since the visiting team took a lead in the top of an inning that was not completed after the 5th that if the game had to be called it would not be an official game but rather a 'suspended' game.

I was confused but after thinking about it, it makes sense. The home team would have to have the same amount of opportunities to score I guess. So since the Mets went ahead in the top of the 7th, the Cards would have to be given a chance to bat in their half of that inning.

I assume that once Rolen had made the third out then it would have been official. Is that right?

[Methead]

A nice win. I waited out the rain, but as soon as they put a quick 3 runs on the board, I called it a night. Nice to see they got another one after I left.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yes, the bottom of the seventh broought the gmae to regulation.

[soupcan]

Edgy DC wrote: Yes, the bottom of the seventh broought the gmae to regulation.

Thanks, I never knew this. Always thought 5 innings made a game no matter what.

While I'm on the subject here's another rules question -

Men on first and second less than two out - batter hits a ground ball that hits the runner going from first to second. Runner's out of course, but is the ball dead and the batter awarded first? If so does the runner who was at second automatically advance to third?

This came up at a little league game and I was arguing just this. Runner is out, ball is dead, batter awarded first, runner on second advances.

No one seemed to be as convinced of their opinions as I so we went with my call. Was I right?

[Frayed Knot]

]Cohen however said that since the visiting team took a lead in the top of an inning that was not completed after the 5th that if the game had to be called it would not be an official game but rather a 'suspended' game. I was confused but after thinking about it, it makes sense. The home team would have to have the same amount of opportunities to score I guess. So since the Mets went ahead in the top of the 7th, the Cards would have to be given a chance to bat in their half of that inning.

Right. When a team takes a lead in an otherwise-official game during the middle of an inning but rain prevents the inning from being complete, the result has to revert back to the last whole inning - as if the 7th (in this case) had never happened.

Had that actually happened (game not being resumed) I think we would have set some kind of record for the two worst-timed rain-shortened games in a one-week span.

[metirish]

] Mets could clear way for Glavine's exit Never mind that $12 million club option for 2007 that the Mets included in left-hander Tom Glavine's restructured contract: There is little chance the team will exercise it. The Mets have agreed informally to decline the option if Glavine wants to return to the Braves next season, according to a source with knowledge of his contract. The restructured deal also includes a "poison pill," FOXSports.com has learned � a $3 million bonus if Glavine makes the All-Star team in '06 and '07 and a $2 million bonus if he makes it only in '07. By defeating the Cardinals on Tuesday night, Glavine, 40, improved to 6-2 with a 2.43 ERA � All-Star caliber numbers. Both the Mets and Braves figure to want him next season; he is now just 19 victories short of 300. Thanks to the All-Star bonuses, Glavine's club option with the Mets could be worth $14 million or $15 million � both prohibitive numbers. If the Mets want to keep Glavine, they almost certainly would negotiate a new deal at a lower salary. Glavine restructured his contract with the Mets to reduce his '06 salary from $10.5 million to $7.5 million. In return, he received the $12 million club option and a $5.5 million player option for '07, both with a $3 million buyout. The new deal protects Glavine if he suffers a serious injury later this season; his player option amounts to disability insurance. The value of that option will increase by $1 million each if he pitches 180, 190 and 200 innings, maxing out at $8.5 million.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5612148

[Elster88]

Frayed Knot wrote: ]Cohen however said that since the visiting team took a lead in the top of an inning that was not completed after the 5th that if the game had to be called it would not be an official game but rather a 'suspended' game. I was confused but after thinking about it, it makes sense. The home team would have to have the same amount of opportunities to score I guess. So since the Mets went ahead in the top of the 7th, the Cards would have to be given a chance to bat in their half of that inning. Right. When a team takes a lead in an otherwise-official game during the middle of an inning but rain prevents the inning from being complete, the result has to revert back to the last whole inning - as if the 7th (in this case) had never happened.

I don't think this is true. If the game gets called off all together they just start a new game from scratch.

[Guest ScarletKnight41]

No Elster - it would be a suspended game and it would be resumed from the point of the last complete inning.

[Gwreck]

="Elster88"] ="Frayed Knot"]Right. When a team takes a lead in an otherwise-official game during the middle of an inning but rain prevents the inning from being complete, the result has to revert back to the last whole inning - as if the 7th (in this case) had never happened. I don't think this is true. If the game gets called off all together they just start a new game from scratch.

No, Frayed Knot has it right.
You start a new game from scratch if it isn't an official game.

If it is an official game, then you can end it if one team is ahead.

If no team is ahead, you have to keep going. No team was "ahead" because the Cardinals hadn't had the chance to bat in the 7th.

If the Cardinals were ahead (instead of the Mets) when the tarp went on the field, they could've called the game and the Cardinals would have won.

[Elster88]

Elster88 wrote: ="Bret Sabermetric"] Elster88 wrote: ="Bret Sabermetric"] In fact, can we look up the Mets' W-L with Hernandez in the lineup and wiht Matsui? I wonder what that would show, as long as you're so interested in short-term performance levels. True enough...it is a short term fielding performance that I am speaking of. But I don't think W-L with Andy and W-L with Kaz is the way to judge things, even in the short term. I'd still go with things like fielding percentage and OBP in those cases. In which case Kaz is probably still outperforming Andy. I'm just shocked that you like certain short-term performances while dismissing others. Which others am I dismissing again? W-L record? Do you really think that is a good indicator of Kaz's playing ability over Andy's? There are no other factors which could skew the results? Did Andy ever have to play in a game that Jose Lima pitched in?

Don't forget to respond to this one, Bret.

[Elster88]

="Gwreck"] ="Elster88"] ="Frayed Knot"]Right. When a team takes a lead in an otherwise-official game during the middle of an inning but rain prevents the inning from being complete, the result has to revert back to the last whole inning - as if the 7th (in this case) had never happened. I don't think this is true. If the game gets called off all together they just start a new game from scratch. No, Frayed Knot has it right. You start a new game from scratch if it isn't an official game. If it is an official game, then you can end it if one team is ahead. If no team is ahead, you have to keep going. No team was "ahead" because the Cardinals hadn't had the chance to bat in the 7th. If the Cardinals were ahead (instead of the Mets) when the tarp went on the field, they could've called the game and the Cardinals would have won.

Well that just doesn't seem fair.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Elster88 wrote: Elster88 wrote: ="Bret Sabermetric"] Elster88 wrote: ="Bret Sabermetric"] In fact, can we look up the Mets' W-L with Hernandez in the lineup and wiht Matsui? I wonder what that would show, as long as you're so interested in short-term performance levels. True enough...it is a short term fielding performance that I am speaking of. But I don't think W-L with Andy and W-L with Kaz is the way to judge things, even in the short term. I'd still go with things like fielding percentage and OBP in those cases. In which case Kaz is probably still outperforming Andy. I'm just shocked that you like certain short-term performances while dismissing others. Which others am I dismissing again? W-L record? Do you really think that is a good indicator of Kaz's playing ability over Andy's? There are no other factors which could skew the results? Did Andy ever have to play in a game that Jose Lima pitched in? Don't forget to respond to this one, Bret.

Turn both of Lima's losses into wins. Now do the math.

[Elster88]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: ="Elster88"] ="Elster88"] Bret Sabermetric wrote: ="Elster88"] Bret Sabermetric wrote: In fact, can we look up the Mets' W-L with Hernandez in the lineup and wiht Matsui? I wonder what that would show, as long as you're so interested in short-term performance levels. True enough...it is a short term fielding performance that I am speaking of. But I don't think W-L with Andy and W-L with Kaz is the way to judge things, even in the short term. I'd still go with things like fielding percentage and OBP in those cases. In which case Kaz is probably still outperforming Andy. I'm just shocked that you like certain short-term performances while dismissing others. Which others am I dismissing again? W-L record? Do you really think that is a good indicator of Kaz's playing ability over Andy's? There are no other factors which could skew the results? Did Andy ever have to play in a game that Jose Lima pitched in? Don't forget to respond to this one, Bret. Turn both of Lima's losses into wins. Now do the math.

Forget Lima's starts for a second then. My point is that a team's W-L record is not a good indicator of individual performace. Don't you agree?

2nd question---which measurement was I willifully ignoring?

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Elster88 wrote: ="Bret Sabermetric"] Elster88 wrote: Elster88 wrote: ="Bret Sabermetric"] Elster88 wrote: ="Bret Sabermetric"] In fact, can we look up the Mets' W-L with Hernandez in the lineup and wiht Matsui? I wonder what that would show, as long as you're so interested in short-term performance levels. True enough...it is a short term fielding performance that I am speaking of. But I don't think W-L with Andy and W-L with Kaz is the way to judge things, even in the short term. I'd still go with things like fielding percentage and OBP in those cases. In which case Kaz is probably still outperforming Andy. I'm just shocked that you like certain short-term performances while dismissing others. Which others am I dismissing again? W-L record? Do you really think that is a good indicator of Kaz's playing ability over Andy's? There are no other factors which could skew the results? Did Andy ever have to play in a game that Jose Lima pitched in? Don't forget to respond to this one, Bret. Turn both of Lima's losses into wins. Now do the math. Forget Lima's starts for a second then. My point is that a team's W-L record is not a good indicator of individual performace. Don't you agree? 2nd question---which measurement was I willifully ignoring?

All we have with Hernandez is short -term performance. If you're going to deny me that measure, then I've got nothing.

2nd question--see above. You're basically ignoring any positives I can show you with Hernandez, of which the strongest is how well the Mets played when he was here.

I sorta like individual W/L records. I think they're underutilized, because while you get a lot of short-term freak results, over the long haul, Ws and Ls are what the game's about. I always wondered what Piazza's w/l record was compared to his substitutes. I'm sure it was good, but I'm pretty sure it wasn't nearly as good as people think it was, which is one reason why I'd wanted him dealt.

[Willets Point]

Maybe there should be a +/- rating for baseball like in hockey. How many runs your team scores when you bat in an inning vs. how many they score when you don't come to bat. Also defensive scores, how many runs allowed in innings on the field vs. innings on the bench/dl. Could be interesting to see the cumulative stats, although I'm not sure what useful info they'd provide.