David Wright's Future

[Guest abogdan]

John Sickels runs a projection for the rest of David Wright's career and likes what he sees:

]The thing for Wright is, even if he doesn't improve from where he already is, he's so good right now that a long career at his current level of performance would make him one of the best third basemen in history

Wright is projected to finish his 16 year career with over 400 HR.

[smg58]

I like that site a lot (minorleagueball.com), but I'd be curious to know if there's anything more than guesswork that goes into those projections.

[metirish]

It's laughable to project a career, although I don't think Mr Sickles takes himself too seriously.

[nymr83]

its a mathematical process...its not nearly an exact science and i'm sure sickels doesnt think it means much, what it IS is a better guess than just a Met fan's speculation (maybe not by too much though) so its worth at least that.
that is a great site by the way, i was upset he left espn.com but was glad when he turned up here.

[Frayed Knot]

Sickels had a gushing piece on Milledge somewhere on the net in the last week or so, comparing him favorably to Delmon Young (#1 pick the same year LM was #12). It was as positive as anything I've ever read on him and between that and now this it gets me to wondering whether he's joining the 'hype patrol' when it comes to prospects.
I wouldn't think he is; he's been at this for a while and wouldn't normally throw himself in with the fly-by-night sites that want to hype a prospect simply so they can claim they said it first if/when he succeeds. The rotisserie craze has spawned a number of sites and "experts" on this subject.

I just don't see the point in projecting a career from a guy with less than 1-1/2 years of service.

[MFS62]

Frayed Knot wrote: I just don't see the point in projecting a career from a guy with less than 1-1/2 years of service.

Bill James wrote that you could get a pretty good projection of a player's career based on the player's first 500 at bats.
But I agree, what's the point, unless you're going to syndicate the player out for stud.

LAter

[Elster88]

Frayed Knot wrote: I just don't see the point in projecting a career from a guy with less than 1-1/2 years of service.

For fun.

And so Met fans can get all hot and bothered and risk being crushed for the remainder of their lives (see: Dwight Gooden, MD and Strawberry, DAH-ryl)

[Valadius]

Orioles??? Nationals??? What is this nonsense?

[Guest sharpie]

We let him go to the Orioles 'cause A-Rod was finally available again.

[Guest Edgy DC]

We got Melvin Mora back, though.

[Elster88]

]UPDATE: The thing with Wright going to Baltimore was meant as something of a joke, good-natured teasing of long-suffering Mets fans, but is apparently really pissing off a lot of Mets boosters. Feel free to ignore it, guys. The Crystal Ball feature is half-serious and half-tongue-in-cheek. In this case, I do expect that Wright will put up numbers similar to this if he remains healthy, but I am not seriously claiming that he will end up in Baltimore.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Well, that's a relief.

If he was serious about Baltimore, then it certainly would have happened that way.

Sickles, by the way, has a lot to learn about pissing off Mets fans. To really accomplish that goal, he'd have to put New York (AL) in those stats instead of Baltimore.

[nymr83]

i think he wanted to joke with Met fans without entirely turning them off to his column!

[duan]

i read that column too and had some of the same thoughts as frayed knot. I suppose what he is doing is contextualising where David Wright is after 1.5 seasons versus his peers and then imagining that he moves along a similar path to those peers.

[Centerfield]

Fuck. I already bought O's season tickets for 2011.

Now what am I supposed to do.

[Guest GYC]

I'm disappointed it was only 400 HRs.


Also, how does he drop off next year? Doesn't make sense.

Looks like Sickels didn't factor in the fact that Wright is God.

[Zvon]

I know its tongue in cheek, but him smackin 40 HRs and driving in over 140 for the Orioles is not funny at all.
No matter how you slice it.

And by 2018 the Nationals will be known as the Internationals.

[Elster88]

If you need to get your David Wright fix there's a long interview on the wfan.com with him. Click on the Mike and the Mad Dog link on the main page and it's about halfway down in the archived interviews. He was officially there to pimp his charity's event next week, but they just talked baseball and the Mets the whole time.

M&MD were sweating him after the interview as hard as anyone here does. "Great kid" "Always says the right thing." "[u:7bdd9edd54]Perfect[/u:7bdd9edd54]".

So when does baseball start?

[Zvon]

Elster88 wrote: So when does baseball start?

This seems like one year baseball never stopped.
Maybe this place has something to do with that.