Bonds or Jones

[Elster88]

Andruw Jones became the youngest player to reach 300 homers yesterday. That's a testament to the age at which he joined the league as much as his home run hitting prowess. Then again, 50 home runs is a pretty incredible season, it just seems like a lot less than it used to thanks to steroids, juiced balls, blah blah blah.
_____________________________
This post had the designation 155) David Segui

[smg58]

There's something about his output this season that seems a little too good to be true. Or maybe I'm just automatically suspicious of anybody who hits more than 30 these days.

[Edgy MD]

Bonds, of course. There's just too much that can go wrong between 300 and 756.

[Guest cooby]

I voted other, as in BOTH

[Elster88]

They can't both be MORE likely. ;-)

[Guest sharpie]

Bonds. Andruw is having a helluva year but I don't see him duplicating it.

[metirish]

Bonds in a romp, he could end up with over 800

[seawolf17]

I'm tempted to vote Jones. He's still a kid! Keep in mind, Hank Aaron never hit 50 in a season, and he got to 755 just fine. I think he'll keep getting better, which is scary.

[Frayed Knot]

Andruw Jones became the youngest player to reach 300 homers yesterday.

Jimmie Foxx ended the 1935 season with 302 HRs, then turned 28 several weeks later.
Andruw hit #300 last night but turned 28 in April.



At this point I suspect neither will reach 756.
I thought Bonds would until he missed most of this year, although I'd still consider him more likely to reach it than Andruw. Too many things can go wrong between #300 & even #500/600 (see Griffey, Ken Jr.) not to mnetion 756. I also think Andruw might not be the type to "age well" although I've been wrong on that several times already with him.

[Elster88]

Frayed Knot wrote: Andruw Jones became the youngest player to reach 300 homers yesterday. Jimmie Foxx ended the 1935 season with 302 HRs, then turned 28 several weeks later. Andruw hit #300 last night but turned 28 in April.

Huh. I didn't know this. I heard the soundbite from my TV while brushing my teeth this morning that Andruw was the youngest.
_____________________________
This post had the designation 154) Tommy Davis

[Edgy MD]

Jimmy Foxx is one of the most under-appreciated great players. He shares George Brett's curse of being alnost an exact contemporary of perhaps the greatest player to ever play his position.

[seawolf17]

Edgy DC wrote: George Brett's curse of being alnost an exact contemporary of perhaps the greatest player to ever play his position.

That, of course, is Phil Garner.

[Edgy MD]

Player	Years	Days
Alex Rodriguez	27	249
Jimmie Foxx	27	328
Ken Griffey Jr.	28	143
Andruw Jones	28	145
Mel Ott	28	171
Eddie Mathews	28	186
Mickey Mantle	28	257

What you probably heard was that he was the youngest Brave to accomplish the feat.

[Frayed Knot]

ARod was also the youngest to 400 - and by a bigger margin IIRC.
He has a better chance at 756 than either Jones or Bonds IMO.

[metirish]

Listen to an Irish sports radio station in Dublin talking about Bonds,I think they are talking to a journo from the Chronicle.

http://www.newstalk106.ie/

He was talking to a guy from KMB sports radion in san fran

[metsmarathon]

i think what he meant was, of all the players to reach 300 home runs yesterday, andruw jones was the youngest.

but i could be wrong...

[nymr83]

gotta put Arod ahead of them both here.

[MFS62]

I voted "other" for A-Rod.

I'm still not convinced about Andruw's staying power in this race to #1.
Bill James has written that ballplayers reach their power peak around the age of 27, stay at that platteau for a while, then start to decline. For a NL player who will have to play the field, thsi may limit Jones' chances for longevity.
But if he moves to the AL and only has to bat, he might stay in the race longer.

Later

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Bill James has written that ballplayers reach their power peak around the age of 27, stay at that platteau for a while, then start to decline. For a NL player who will have to play the field, thsi may limit Jones' chances for longevity. But if he moves to the AL and only has to bat, he might stay in the race longer.

As I related in another thread a presenter at SABR this summer showed data indicating those numbers have changed considerably since James did his calculation in the 1980s and peaks are starting later and lasting longer than they used to (due to training & other factors). Bill James sat there and watched!

On the presenter's site are some funky charts showing some of the data he used.

http://www.visual-baseball.com/index.html

[MFS62]

Thanks for the update.
Do you recall at what age the new late-bloomers being their statistical decline?
Was this the SABR meeting in Toronto?
I have several friends who attended and sent you a message (I forget whether a post or PM) about them.
One was a contributing writer to "Tales From the Mets Dugout"

Later

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Oh, I had to have missed your message before I went and forgot to responede. I don;t know if I met your guy but I did run into some geeked-out Metfans.

Here's the SABR thread -- all I noted was that peaks begin closer to 30 than to 27 today.

http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=792&highlight=sabr