2006: Free Agents, Options, Trades

[Guest Rotblatt]

Matthew Pouliot from RotoWorld breaks down the free agent hitting class for 2006 and makes some predictions.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.asp?sport=MLB&column=14&articleid=1077

It's pretty exhaustive. He predicts we'll end up with Ramon Hernandez (4 yrs, $26M) and that Piazza will sign a 1-year, $5M contract with the Orioles. He doesn't see us signing the one big FA 1B bat, Konerko, but thinks we'll "try to upgrade" at 1B and not pick up Dougie's option.

He lists Kaz as a trade candidate but doesn't try and predict where he'll go. Cam is also listed as a trade candidate but, interestingly enough (and probably accurately) not Floyd.

He thinks we'll probably try and keep Woody & Anderson unless they insist on abitration, in which case, he thinks we'll let them go. Cairo's a FA, but he doesn't say where he thinks he'll end up. Hopefully we're planning on ending up with only one of Cairo & Anderson.

He figures if Manny goes anywhere, it'll be to us. Here's what else he has to say about Manny:

]The Red Sox should continue to put up with the drama unless they can find someone willing to swallow the entire $57 million he�s owed over the next three years. �

I'm down with Manny if we do it without giving up a top prospect, which might be possible if we agree to take on his whole contract. The Sox were allegedly interested in Matsui this off-season; I wonder if there's any interest there. He'll probably end up on a small-market team if we trade him, though . . .

With this weak of a market, we're probably going to have to trade to get a decent 1B. I'm guessing any deal would involve Cameron & possibly a starting pitcher (he hasn't gotten to pitching yet--I think that's next week).

Personally, I wouldn't be adverse to going with Valent (whom Pouliot lists as a non-tender candidate, and probably pretty accurately, which pisses me off) at 1st, then picking up a defensive-minded righty with good lefty splits to platoon with. My first choice would be to trade for a young dude with upside, but we could do worse than a Valent platoon.

Our other holes will be 2B & C. If we land Hernandez with that deal, I'm happy, but I wouldn't mind running a Castro + Shoppach/Willingham/Closser/etc. platoon out there either. For 2B, I'd like to see us trade Matsui for whatever we can get and go with one of our youngsters (whomever looks good between this September and winter ball, I suppose).

[seawolf17]

I'll go on record now as saying I don't want Ramon Hernandez at that much money for that many years. He's lost big parts of the last two seasons to injuries (knee in '04, wrist in '05), and he'll be coming off surgery this winter. If he wants a one-year Nomaresque make-good deal, I'd be cool with that.

[metirish]

I'm with seawolf, he looked brutal in the Mets series at Shea, I know he got hurt but still, I'd keep Castro as our main. catcher with a decent backup

[MFS62]

Early edition of Monday's Daily News says that if Carlos has to go on the DL, Valent will be called up.

Later

[Guest Rotblatt]

Good point. It's also probably worth noting that even in his best year, Hernandez was barely as good offensively as Piazza in his worst year--so far, anyway.

We really could do worse than signing Piazza to a one-year contract and platooning him again. If we were to do that, I'd prefer it to be with an up-and-coming youngster rather than Castro, but even that's not a terrible option.

It really depends on what other changes we make around the C spot. Hernandez isn't going to be an impact player for us. At best, he'll be a marginal improvement offensively and a marked improvement defensively.

Replacing Ishii with Traschel should help next year, and if we can unload Glavine, Seo would probably be an upgrade. We can expect some regression from Pedro & serious regression from Hernandez, and possibly some from Benson as well.

On the other side, I'd think that Heilman, Bell & Padilla would improve . . . At any rate, having them all year instead of relying on Aybar & DeJean should represent an upgrade.

Offensively, we can probably expect some sort of improvement from Reyes, Wright, Beltran & Diaz and regression from Floyd. Cam, if he's still here, I'd expect to stay around the same. Ditto with Cairo and probably Mientkiewicz as well. That being said, Cairo & Mientkiewicz posting their 05 numbers over the full season would be distinct improvements over the net 2005 1B/2B offensive contribution, so we pretty much can't help but improve there.

I wouldn't expect Diaz to post much better than Cam's .816 OPS, so either way, I'd call that a push.

Breaking it down,

2006 Offensive Expectations, assuming no impact acquisitions

C: Castro/Backup Scrub Decline over 2005
1B: Valent/Daubach Almost definitely an improvement over 05
2B: Hernandez/Lambin ""
3B: Wright Slight improvement
SS: Reyes Improvement
LF: Cliffy Decline
CF: Beltran Almost definitely an improvement
RF: Diaz/Cameron No change.

Net expectation: We'll be better in 2005, if we stay healthy.

2006 Rotation Expectations

#1 Petey: Decline
# 2 Benson: No change/Slight decline
# 3 Seo: Improvement over 2005
# 4 Trachsel: Improvement over 2005
# 5 Zambrano: No change

Net expectation: We'll be better in 2005, if we stay healthy.

I guess this is my roundabout way of saying we're actually in pretty good shape next year. For 2005, we're on track to score 739 runs and allow 670, which translates to 89 Pythagorean wins over a season. Now, I'll grant you that we're underporming to the tune of only netting 81 wins, but history shows that we're unlikely to underperform that drastically two seasons in a row.

And if we can improve by, say, 10 runs on both sides of the ball (which seems reasonable to me, given the above suppositions), we're looking at a 91-win team, without making any impact signings.

Replacing a declining Floyd with Manny would probably net us an extra 30 offensive runs (or 3 wins) over the course of the season . . .

2006 could be a really competitive year for us depending on what we decide to do this off-season . . . I mean, adding just one impact bat and getting league average production from 1B & 2B should probably be enough to make us players next year.

[MFS62]

Once that option kicks in, I think unloading Glavine will be easier said than done.

Later

[seawolf17]

According to [url=http://www.hardballdollars.com/]Hardball Dollars[/url], a pretty good source for all things contract-related:

Mutual option for 2006; $3m buyout; guaranteed at $8mil with 164 IP; $11mil if 200 IP

Glavine has pitched 143 innings already.

[MFS62]

So that means he has to pitch 57 more innings in 10 more starts. Not out of the question.
But if they go to a six man rotation that gets a little tougher to attain.

Later

[nymr83]

which makes the 6 man more attractive!

[smg58]

This is what mlb4u.com had on Glavine:

Tom Glavine: 3-Year worth 35M- will make in 11M in 2003, 10.5M in 2004 and 2005- + the deal includes a Mutual Vesting Option for 2006 worth 6.5M or a 3M buyout- + 2006 option can vest at 10.5M if he has 600IP between 2003 and 2005 and with at least 200IP in 2005- + if he pitches between 580 and 600 innings between 2003 and 2005, with at least 200+IP in 2005 then the his contract for 2006 will vest at 9M with the oppurtunity to earn 1.5M in bonuses- + if he pitches between 560 and 600 innings between 2003 and 2005, with at least 200IP in 2005, then his 2006 salary would vest at 8M with the oppurtunity to earn 2.5M in bonuses- + if none of the above veting options are achieved the two sides can exercise the Mutual Option worth 6.5M by Nov. 1st, 2005- + if he exercises the Mutual Option, then the team must make its decision by Nov. 10th, 2005- + if the Mutual Option is exercised by both sides then he has the oppurtunity to earn 4M in bonuses in 2006- + BONUSES he has received: 50K bonus for 2004 All-Star selection- + he has a complete NO-TRADE clause Agent: Gregg Clifton Service Time: 17.052

So who's right?

[smg58]

The more I think about it, the more I think we were going about the Manny deal the wrong way. The only way to deal for Ramirez without turning the money issue into a logistical nightmare is to offer Beltran. After 06, the salaries are similar (Beltran's contract is backloaded), and the difference next year would be made up by throwing in Matsui. If the Sox were really eager to deal Ramirez, I'd bet that Beltran and Matsui for Manny and Shoppach would have done the trick. And may still, especially if Damon asks for too much.

The free agent who intrigues me the most is Brian Giles. Given how a couple of would-be homers by Floyd turned into flyouts last week, I'm inclined to agree with the statistics that suggest Petco is death on left-handed hitters. If most teams simply look at him as a 35-year-old with declining numbers, he could be a steal for somebody.

There are enough young catchers with their paths apparently blocked that I think youth is the way to go there, with Castro hanging around as a contingency plan. As much as I like Piazza, I think the team needs to move forward.

[Frayed Knot]

Nobody's dealing Beltran for Ramirez.

[Guest Rotblatt]

I don't think we'd need to give up Beltran. In terms of money, Piazza's coming off the books, and it looks like we've got some payroll flexibility. And really, trading Beltran now would be foolish. His trade value is probably about as low as it's ever been right now, since he's struggled so much this season and is being paid so much.

There aren't a lot of impact position players available in the free agent pool this year, which makes it more palatable to pay the kind of money Manny's getting, since, after all, the guy flat-out rakes. Now, we don't want him playing RF, which means we either have to move Floyd somewhere (1B, perhaps? RF would be dangerous, IMO) or trade him. Provided he ends the season healthy, Floyd's going to look mighty tasty to a whole lot of teams, particularly since his 2006 salary's pretty reasonable, IIRC. Floyd could potentially be the cornerstone of the Manny trade, as a matter of fact. Boston's going to need pitching as well, which we just so happen to have in spades between Petey (untouchable), Benson (nigh untouchable, I'd think), Zambrano (possible), Glavine (wouldn't want him), Trachsel (possible), Seo (desireable), Heilman (desireable) & Petit (untouchable, I'd hope). Looper, Hernandez or one of the younger guys like Padilla or Bell might be attractive as well.

Can we get a deal done without giving up Petey, Milledge, Petit, Reyes, Wright, Diaz or Beltran? Dunno, but I'd like to see us try.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I think, to trade Manny to the Mets, the Red Sox would push to get either Milledge or Petit, if not both.

If the Mets are taking on the full salary, though, they shouldn't have to do that. It's just a matter of who yields first.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Why do the Mets need Manny Ramirez so much?

Aren't the team's top priorities looking to be first base, second base, and first base?

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Their top priority should be more offense.

The most likely places to get it are at first and second base, because that's where they're weakest.

Adding Manny addresses the primary need (more offense) but not in the most efficient way.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: I think, to trade Manny to the Mets, the Red Sox would push to get either Milledge or Petit, if not both. If the Mets are taking on the full salary, though, they shouldn't have to do that. It's just a matter of who yields first.

Yup. I totally agree. There's a similar thread over at SoSH, and the consensus seem to be that Cameron + Milledge = Manny + $15M (5 per year over Manny's contract). If we take on Manny's whole contract, it could be Cameron for Manny straight up.

I'm sorry, but if we can do Cam for Manny, we do it. We should have a plan in place to figure out where to put our pieces (maybe we switch Floyd over to 1B or trade him to Milwaukee for Overbay or whatever) but if we can afford him, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

]Adding Manny addresses the primary need (more offense) but not in the most efficient way.

I agree with you here too, Yancy. Navigating second base is going to be tough, but seeing how Lambin or Hernandez does in September should help us decide what's right for 2006. The impact players we could reasonably trade for are Soriano (not worth it, IMO) and Kent (maybe, depending on what we give up, but he's bound to experience more decline--and injuries).

There are less expensive options who would still provide a nice boost for us, like Garrafino, who gets on base at a nice clip, but rather than sign a journeyman 2B, I'd prefer we just give one of the kids a shot and see what they can do. They're not likely to be worse than what we've had this year, and if we get a quality backup (ala Cairo) for the kid, then we'll have some decent insurance.

For first base, it's a thin FA class after Konerko. If there's any chance we can sign him, we should jump on it, but otherwise we should be looking at trades, and perusing Pouliot's list, here's who jumps out at me:

Overbay, Chad Tracy, Ryan Howard, Hee Sop Choi.

That's a pretty sweet group of young 1B, if you ask me. I'd take any one of 'em in a heartbeat, although Choi's awfully streaky. The question is what it would take to land them. If we can trade off some pitching and a prospect that's not Petit or Milledge, I'd be pretty happy.

Replacing Mientkiewicz/Woody/Cairo/Offerman with any one of those options would represent a big boost and ditto for Cairo/Matsui. Where we really get crazy, though, is replacing Cameron's prodcution with Manny's. That's like the buttercream icing on a rich coconut cake.

nagghhhh, cake . . .

Anyway, I DO think we should try and move Cameron--a lot of his value comes in from being a CF and Diaz looks to be a more than capable replacement.

[Willets Point]

Can Manny play first?

[Frayed Knot]

He can't even play left

[smg58]

The top priority should be offense, but dealing some quantity for quality on the pitching end of things wouldn't hurt. Fifth in ERA isn't bad, but it won't get you to the Series. I'd put a legit #2 starter on the wish list.

Yes, the Mets need a first baseman. Badly. That's why if they do deal for Manny, they have to be careful about how much money they take on and how many young guys they part with.

The Brewers might want major-league pitching for Overbay, which would be good news for the Mets. Chad Tracy wouldn't be a bad fit, either. There's a reason Choi keeps getting dealt. There'll be looting in Philly if Howard gets dealt, and the National Guard would be called in if he's traded to the Mets. I'd also ask the Astros about Lance Berkman. The contract extension he got is big enough that the Astros might be having second thoughts, but damn his OBP could help us out. A long shot, but you never know till you ask.

As for Konerko, I'm always leery of power hitters with relatively low batting averages coming from a hitter-friendly park to here. The Mets could certainly do a lot worse than him -- hell, they're doing a lot worse than him right now -- but I'm guessing they'd have to overpay to get him.

[DocTee]

"Overbay, Chad Tracy, Ryan Howard, Hee Sop Choi.

That's a pretty sweet group of young 1B, if you ask me. I'd take any one of 'em in a heartbeat..."


No way the Phils deal Howard to a division foe...Hee Sop? There are rumors he's pressing hard to impress the Koreatown crowd-- can you imagine how bad he'd be in Shea? Overbay is a nice player and he's blocking Prince Fielder-- problem is, with only Konerko on the FA market, he could command a steep price from suitors like, oh I dunno, the MFY...

That leaves Chad Tracy-- is he really that attractive a player that you'd deal a major-league ready pitcher (or Floyd)?

[Guest OlerudOwned]

]No way the Phils deal Howard to a division foe

The way Thome broke down this year, I don't think the Phils will deal Howard to anyone.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Konerko's H/A splits this year: .892 OPS H, .896 A. He was bad away last year and outstanding at home and the same in 2003, but in 2002, he was better away than home. As for his batting average, I've got no problem with a career .278 hitter. That's pretty solid, and given that he's reached base at almost a .350 clip, I'd have no qualms about signing him to a couple of years. I think he's definitely the best we could realistically hope for in terms of a first baseman.

]No way the Phils deal Howard to a division foe...

If they're looking to trade him and we offer the best package, I think they'd take it . . . That being said, I agree that it's a long shot.

]Hee Sop? There are rumors he's pressing hard to impress the Koreatown crowd-- can you imagine how bad he'd be in Shea?

IMO, he's worth taking a shot on. He's never really been given a starting job, but he's a guy who just raked in the minors. Willie seems to do pretty well with different personalities--maybe he can coax the best out of Choi. He'd probably be the cheapest of the lot to acquire, and he's got as much upside as any of em. Okay, so maybe not QUITE as much upside, but he could be pretty solid.

]Overbay is a nice player and he's blocking Prince Fielder-- problem is, with only Konerko on the FA market, he could command a steep price from suitors like, oh I dunno, the MFY...

Sure, but who do the MFY have to trade? No one. The Sox might be in the market for Overbay, and they DO have prospects to burn, but I'd take a shot on him, especially since we have our ace in the hole--pitching depth, which pretty much no one else but the Twins has.

]That leaves Chad Tracy-- is he really that attractive a player that you'd deal a major-league ready pitcher (or Floyd)?

In a heartbeat. 25-year old who hits for average & power, doesn't strike out much and who takes walks? As good as Clff's season's been, Tracy's been right up there (.878 OPS), and he's far more likely to improve.

None of them are perfect, but any of them would be better than what we got this year--and likely better than what we could acquire on the FA market.

[Theoldmole]

I dunno...I can't picture a guy named Chad Tracy playing in NY.

[smg58]

I don't see any reason not to trade a major league-ready pitcher for somebody like Overbay or Tracy -- we'd be trading our abundance for theirs, and it's not like these guys can't play and wouldn't be huge upgrades at first. Both teams might be in a position to demand more than that, though.

As for Floyd, I'm pretty sure the Brewers and D-Backs are covered in the outfield corners, plus replacing him would be dicey. I think Diaz could replace Cameron's bat but Floyd's would be another story. I'd consider moving Floyd and Zambrano for a really good pitcher, but only if I had some assurance that Brian Giles would sign here.

[MFS62]

Earlier in the thread, someone suggested that Cliff Floyd could be moved to first base,
Does he like playing there?
Is he any good at it?

Seems to me that if the team could make a Manny deal involving Cameron, and move Floyd to first, that would mean the search would be on for a left fielder (assuming Diaz in right). And one of those those might be easier to find than a first baseman.

Later

[Guest MrMet420]

To me, I just cant see Cliffy on the team next season. A Manny-Cammy trade would be great as long as it dosen't include Milledge or Bannister. With the quiteness on the Soler and Humber fronts. For some reason I cringe at the though of the Mets making another Kazmir mistake with Bannister.... Although Kazmir hasn't been what everyone's expected in TB, I think he would have thrived under Rick Peterson.

[Elster88]

Welcome Mr. Met. See you at the game tonight.

[Guest Edgy DC]

]To me, I just cant see Cliffy on the team next season.

Welcome. Why not?

[seawolf17]

Welcome indeed. I think this is the first real love we've seen for Brian Bannister this year, despite his solid start.