MLB Hot Stove 2025-2026 offseason

[smg58]

The big news today was Dylan Cease getting seven years and $210M (deferments making it more like $182M) from the Blue Jays. Cease has been durable, but I don't think I would have bet seven years on that continuing indefinitely.

The first major-league deal of the offseason went to former Met Phil Maton, who got two years and $14.5M with a club option for the third year from the Cubs. I expect Helsley and Rogers to get significantly more than that, so it looks like good value on paper.

The other big trade involved the Cardinals sending Sonny Gray and $20M of his $35M salary this year to the Red Sox for a fairly good prospect (Fangraphs put him in the top 100 overall). That might wind up looking good in February, but I don't think I'd have pulled the trigger on a deal like that without seeing how the market was going.

[metirish]

There is a lot of talk emanating out of San Diego about the Padres and Mets discussing a Lindor trade

[whippoorwill]

Oh no!

[smg58]

The Padres have every right to ask. But I can't imagine it would go farther than that.

[Edgy MD]

And Lindor has the five-and-10 rights.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The only thing I see is an article from something called TWSN sports that's suggesting it may be a good idea.

At this point it looks like a giant nothing burger.

[Gwreck]

Helsley signed with Baltimore, 2 years/$28 million, to be a closer. (Helsley had reportedly been interested in/explored the possibility of converting to a starter). If anyone wants to start a "Memories of" thread, go right ahead. I don't really have any good ones to share...

[smg58]

The GM of the Orioles did not spend the last two months of the season watching the Mets.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I wish I didn't.

[The Hot Corner]

I wish I didn't.

 

Ba Dum Bum

[Benjamin Grimm]

That same TWSN that was saying that the Mets were going to trade Lindor to the Padres now says he's been traded to Detroit.

I wish there was an effective way to block these stupid sites from my news feed.

[MFS62]

Will Sammon of the Athletic reports:

while Diaz is seeking a five-year contract the Mets prefer something closer to three years.

 

We could have guessed that.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

Toronto is taking the idea of building on their successful 2025 season seriously by aggressively -- and perhaps a bit recklessly? -- going after pitching.

A week after dropping a seven year/$210 contract on 30 y/o RHP Dylan Cease despite his spotty resume and 4.55 ERA in '25 for SDP, the Jays turn their

attention overseas and drop a 3-year/$30 deal on brief ML'er Cody Ponce.

Ponce, a 32 y/o (in April) RHP, had two brief and unremarkable season with Pittsburgh in 2020 & '21 [20 games, 5.86 ERA] but had been attracting attention

this off-season after a few mediocre years in Japan were followed by a stunning 2025 season with the Hanwha* Eagles of the KBO:

29 starts, 17-1, 1.89 ERA, 0.935 WHIP; 252 K/181 IP, league MVP!

So that gives the Jays a potential rotation of: Cease, late-/post-season star Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, former CY Shane Bieber, Jose Berrios, and now Ponce.

Match that, Yanx!

* Hanwha, located in Seoul, started as the Korea Explosives Co. in 1952 but is now a global conglomerate which includes Energy, Materials, Aerospace, Mechatronics, Finance, Retail, and Lifestyle services

[smg58]

Not sure what to make of Ponce, but that's not a terrible commitment on the Jays' part to find out.

[MFS62]

The White Sox have agreed to a two-year, $12 million deal with one-time Mets prospect left-hander Anthony Kay, a source told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand on Wednesday. The club hasn’t confirmed the deal, which includes a $10 million mutual option for 2028.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Kay was more than a Mets prospect. In 2023, for three and a third glorious innings, he was a flesh-and-blood Met.

He spent the last two years starting for The Yokohama Bay Stars, and to his credit, revitalized his career enough to secure that two-plus-year contract. Good for him.

[smg58]

On the mid-tier lefty reliever front, Steven Matz got two years and $15M from the Rays and Hoby Milner got one year and $3.75M from the Cubs. The Mets never seem to go after these types of relievers, and I'm really not sure why.

[metirish]

Free-agent reliever Tyler Rogers in agreement with Blue Jays on three-year, $37M contract with vesting option, source tells @TheAthletic. Value with option is $48M.

[The Hot Corner]

I would have liked to resign Rogers. He is a durable reliever that throws a lot of innings year after year. Pretty effective and he is rather unique. That is a pretty reasonable deal for the Blue Jays.

[Gwreck]

I also would have liked to retain Rogers.

I again wait for an indication of what Stearns has planned for making the team, you know, good.

[metirish]

Mets made a reasonable try to bring back Rogers but Jays’ winning $37M offer, which can go to $48M with 4th year vesting option and had no deferrals, was hard to pass up. @Ken_Rosenthal 1st

Heyman

[smg58]

I'm not sure I'd have been that generous with Rogers either, but relievers are being scooped up and it's not clear who Stearns is really looking at.

[Frayed Knot]

Willson Contreras (the extra L is for ______) to the BoSox for RH pitchers Hunter Dobbins plus two minor leaguers.

[smg58]

The Pirates get Ryan O'Hearn at two and 29. I like seeing the Pirates, White Sox, and Athletics going out and getting people.

On a related note, the CWS get Ryan Newcomb for one year at $4.5M. This one frustrates me a lot, because he was super once he joined the Athletics and moved to the pen in May. He was virtually unhittable from July until September (6 runs in 33.2 IP), but nobody traded for him at the deadline and nobody offered him much in the offseason. You could argue that 30 GMs dropped the ball on this guy, but I only care about one in particular.

[Frayed Knot]

In what well could be called the very definition of a 2020s version of a last ditch attempt at salvaging a ML career, Jarred Kelenic has signed a minor league deal with the Chicago White Sox.

The one-time 6th overall pick [2018] and later a consensus top 10 prospect in all of baseball [4th/BA, 4th/MLB, and 6th/BP pre-2021] is now 26 y/o (27 in July - or just nine months younger than Juan Soto*) but carries into the 2026 season a career .211/.282/.376 slash line [658/84 OPS/OPS+] over parts of five seasons and 1,488 PAs with SEA & ATL.

He also spent all but 24 games in the minors in 2025 and hit almost as poorly there [.213/.286/.309 in 95 games at AAA Gwinnett] as he did in Atlanta.

So now I guess he's a prayer plus a Luis Robert Jr. trade away from hopefully proving himself to Chicago's south-siders.

* I know, it's an unfair comparison, but I just wanted to add a bit of perspective

[smg58]

A team with nothing left to lose takes a flier on a player with nothing left to lose. It may (i.e., very probably will) be completely inconsequential, but the match makes sense.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I can't help but remember all the tooth gnashing that occurred when the Mets traded him.

[smg58]

I'd still argue that trading a prospect of that stature for a relief pitcher and a second baseman who they didn't need and was no longer worth his contract was nutty. Perhaps the Mets saw some red flags that other people at the time didn't, though.

[MFS62]

Imai reportedly has a three year deal with the Astros.

Later

[metsmarathon]

****ing hell, I’d’ve done that in a heartbeat!