Marcus Semien Sucks

[Centerfield]

Pretty much across the board offensively. I was hoping to see some good splits with the hope maybe he could platoon with McNeil. But no. He sucks almost equally against rightys and lefties.

.679 OPS vs. RHP. .642 OPS vs. LHP.

I was wondering maybe he got off to a slow start, and then picked it up in the second half. Nah. .593 OPS in the second half.

One stat that was somewhat encouraging was his home/away splits in 2025. .617 Home. .718 Away. Maybe he just hates hitting at Globe Life, which was ranked by Forbes as the second most pitcher-friendly park in 2025. But his 2024 splits take the air out of that. .703 Home. .694 Away.

Fangraphs projects him at .241/.314/.399. That's a .613 OPS. On the plus side. They think he'll hit 22 HR. So that's something. Also, 3.1 WAR.

[Benjamin Grimm]

If the Mets can build a lineup where Semien hits eighth or ninth, they should be okay. If he ends up close to the top of the lineup, I'm a lot less enthusiastic.

[Centerfield]

I think the best we can hope for is that Semien gets off to a hot start, then some contender loses their SS or 2B to injury (hopefully not the Mets) and the Mets are able to unload some portion of the contract.

It's not just locking in for 500 PAs of low .600s OPS. It's blocking Jett or Ronny, or even McNeil, who will easily give you 100 points of OPS.

[MFS62]

I was wondering maybe he got off to a slow start, and then picked it up in the second half.

 

Maybe that's because Semien only played 127 games in 2025 due to a fracture in his left foot and it took him time to recover.

Here's a deep dive into his offensive and defensive stats:

https://metsmerizedonline.com/deep-dive-into-newest-met-marcus-semien/

Later

[Gwreck]

The Mets aren’t going to magically unload Semien’s contract on someone else. Nor do they need to, given Cohen’s massive resources. If he’s spectacularly bad, they’ll cut him (see, e.g., Robinson Cano in April 2022 was released with a year and a half left on the contract).

I think it’s a fair concern that the Mets might be predisposed to play Semien since he’s got a big contract, but even if we assume that’s the case, he isn’t “blocking” anyone. If Mauricio somehow manages to show he can hit breaking balls and be a productive offensive player, he’ll play.

I guess Williams is “blocked” only in the sense that if you wanted him to be anointed an everyday player as of right NOW, that might be a conflict. I guess it’s possible he could prove to be the best option to start the season as an everyday regular in the majors…but I am highly dubious that will be the case.

Separately, if you want the optimist case re: Semien’s offense, Britton wrote an article today observing that much of the underlying data for Semien in 2025 (exit velo, barrels, hard hit rate, chase %, walk rate, etc.) was comparable to his MVP-caliber 2023 season, and thus there is some basis to expect that he could improve off last year’s crap numbers.

[Edgy MD]

I imagine they hope that they can rely on him producing defensive value, and aim to work hard to find whatever offensive upside he has left.

[Fman99]

I imagine they hope that they can rely on him producing defensive value, and aim to work hard to find whatever offensive upside he has left.

 

I think this is it, really. This current administration has always emphasized strong up the middle defense and this would fall into that general category. He'll hit ninth only because there aren't ten guys in the lineup (what I call the "Rey Ordonez rule").

[Cowtipper]

I think he'll be fine. Struggled last year, but in the preceding three years before then, he averaged 26 homers and 85 RBI per year ... for a second baseman ... while playing top notch defense.

[Centerfield]

The Mets aren’t going to magically unload Semien’s contract on someone else.

 

Well the Rangers just did. And got an extra $5M on top of that. And by your argument, they didn't even have to take on a bad contract.

But I'm not expecting that to happen. As I said. Best case scenario is they unload part of it.

 

Nor do they need to, given Cohen’s massive resources. If he’s spectacularly bad, they’ll cut him (see, e.g., Robinson Cano in April 2022 was released with a year and a half left on the contract).

 

I mean, they don't need to. But the budget at some point is finite. The Nimmo trade is proof of that.

 

I think it’s a fair concern that the Mets might be predisposed to play Semien since he’s got a big contract, but even if we assume that’s the case, he isn’t “blocking” anyone. If Mauricio somehow manages to show he can hit breaking balls and be a productive offensive player, he’ll play.

I guess Williams is “blocked” only in the sense that if you wanted him to be anointed an everyday player as of right NOW, that might be a conflict. I guess it’s possible he could prove to be the best option to start the season as an everyday regular in the majors…but I am highly dubious that will be the case.

Separately, if you want the optimist case re: Semien’s offense, Britton wrote an article today observing that much of the underlying data for Semien in 2025 (exit velo, barrels, hard hit rate, chase %, walk rate, etc.) was comparable to his MVP-caliber 2023 season, and thus there is some basis to expect that he could improve off last year’s crap numbers.

 

Of course he's going to play. And if he's playing, he's blocking another player. That's what blocking is. And his salary is dictating that. He's going to get at least half a season to see what he's got left in the tank. I'd much rather give that to a younger player with upside, or take the known thing that is McNeil.

To the extent McNeil is still on this team, he'll block him from day 1. And McNeil is a much better hitter.

He'll block Ronny Mauricio as well. If McNeil were traded, we'd likely get Ronny as our opening day second baseman. Ronny has shown he's outgrown AAA. And in 2025, flaws and all, had basically the same OPS as Semien.

I agree he'll block Jett the least. If Jett shows he's ready, it's likely sometime in the second half. And if Semien is struggling, I hope the Mets are ready to move on from him by then.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I hope for his sake, and the sake of the team as well, that Marcus Semien has tough skin. He's coming to New York in a very unpopular trade. He's Mickey Lolich. He's Juan Samuel. He's not in a good position. There are a lot of fans who are poised to hate and resent him.

[Gwreck]

I think we have very different assessments of the readiness of Ronny Mauricio.

[Centerfield]

I think so. Ronny may or may not ever be an effective big league player. But as far as being "ready", he's compiled over 2300 PAs in the minors, with 571 of them at the AAA level. His OPS in AAA is .887. He's 25 years old. He's as ready as he'll ever be.

Like Baty before him, he's not going to learn to hit big league breaking balls by playing in Syracuse. He needs big league ABs, so the Mets can decide if he's a flop, a stud or whatever else he might end up in between.

[Centerfield]

Separately, if you want the optimist case re: Semien’s offense, Britton wrote an article today observing that much of the underlying data for Semien in 2025 (exit velo, barrels, hard hit rate, chase %, walk rate, etc.) was comparable to his MVP-caliber 2023 season, and thus there is some basis to expect that he could improve off last year’s crap numbers.

 

I would love to see this. I don't have an Athletic subscription. Can you cut and paste a portion of it?

[Cowtipper]

His last name is funny when you take away the "i".

[MFS62]

Separately, if you want the optimist case re: Semien’s offense, Britton wrote an article today observing that much of the underlying data for Semien in 2025 (exit velo, barrels, hard hit rate, chase %, walk rate, etc.) was comparable to his MVP-caliber 2023 season, and thus there is some basis to expect that he could improve off last year’s crap numbers.

 

I would love to see this. I don't have an Athletic subscription. Can you cut and paste a portion of it?

 

There's a deep dive into his numbers in the link I posted above.

Later

[Gwreck]

I would love to see this. I don't have an Athletic subscription. Can you cut and paste a portion of it?

 

Sure, here’s the relevant part:

 

[bLOCKQUOTE]

Can Semien rebound offensively?

The stats on the back of the baseball card for Semien were rough in 2025: a .230/.305/.364 slash line for his worst OPS since he became an established big leaguer a decade ago with the Chicago White Sox. Only nine players qualified for the batting title last season with a worse OPS than Semien’s .669.

It’s been a major drop-off since 2023, when Semien finished third in the MVP balloting and helped lead the Rangers to their first championship.

But let’s take a look under the hood at those two years.

Marcus Semien, 2023 vs. 2025

Exit Velo

88.4

88.3

Barrel %

6.5%

6.7%

Hard-Hit %

37.0%

35.0%

xWOBA

0.333

0.318

xWOBA con

0.349

0.341

Chase%

21.4%

23.5%

Whiff%

18.0%

22.6%

K%

14.6%

17.4%

BB%

9.6%

9.4%

Yes, Semien was worse in 2025 than in 2023; those numbers are moving in the wrong direction. But he wasn’t so far gone in a lot of the important offensive metrics to think he deserved falling off a cliff the way he did. Is Semien likely to contend for an MVP again at age 35 next season? No. Is it reasonable to think he can be better at the plate than he was last season? Yes.[/bLOCKQUOTE]

[MFS62]

I'm attributing at least part of his last season's decline to the fact that he fractured his foot during the season. I think his numbers will improve and not continue the decline.

Later

[Bob Alpacadaca]

I don't think Semien has to hit much. If he can provide Gold Glove defense at second and bat eighth, I'm fine with that.

One of the podcasts today had someone saying the problem with Nimmo was that his defense was slipping to the point that he was going to be a DH sooner than later on a team where Pete and Sosa are going to be DHs sooner in Pete's case and later in Soto's. Moving that contract and freeing up leftfield means you can have a good centerfielder, but not a glove first guy who has to cover the vast ground between Soto and Nimmo and opens up room for Benge plus someone like Tucker or Bellinger.

I love Nimmo and I'm sad to see him go. But I can understand what Sterns is up to.

[Centerfield]

I'm attributing at least part of his last season's decline to the fact that he fractured his foot during the season. I think his numbers will improve and not continue the decline.

Later

 

He fractured his foot in August and didn’t return. His numbers are unaffected by the foot injury.

[Centerfield]

I would love to see this. I don't have an Athletic subscription. Can you cut and paste a portion of it?

 

Sure, here’s the relevant part:

 

[bLOCKQUOTE]

Can Semien rebound offensively?

The stats on the back of the baseball card for Semien were rough in 2025: a .230/.305/.364 slash line for his worst OPS since he became an established big leaguer a decade ago with the Chicago White Sox. Only nine players qualified for the batting title last season with a worse OPS than Semien’s .669.

It’s been a major drop-off since 2023, when Semien finished third in the MVP balloting and helped lead the Rangers to their first championship.

But let’s take a look under the hood at those two years.

Marcus Semien, 2023 vs. 2025

Exit Velo

88.4

88.3

Barrel %

6.5%

6.7%

Hard-Hit %

37.0%

35.0%

xWOBA

0.333

0.318

xWOBA con

0.349

0.341

Chase%

21.4%

23.5%

Whiff%

18.0%

22.6%

K%

14.6%

17.4%

BB%

9.6%

9.4%

Yes, Semien was worse in 2025 than in 2023; those numbers are moving in the wrong direction. But he wasn’t so far gone in a lot of the important offensive metrics to think he deserved falling off a cliff the way he did. Is Semien likely to contend for an MVP again at age 35 next season? No. Is it reasonable to think he can be better at the plate than he was last season? Yes.[/bLOCKQUOTE]

 

This is encouraging!