The Pete Alonso Conundrum

[ashie62]

But I like Pete

[Edgy MD]

I disagree that the Mets have no firstbasemen; I disagree that all of the Mets' potential firstbasemen suck; and it is worthwhile to note that these two statements, though I disagree with both, are inherently contradictory.

Juan Soto is a potential firstbaseman, and he may be the best player on the planet.

[roger_that]

But I like Pete

 

Me, too. But he might like money more than he likes us.

[roger_that]

Just to stipulate, the 'Pete Alonso Conundrum' is neither a lost Robert Ludlum book, nor is it the band that opened for BTO on their

western Canada tour back in the '80s

The question, of course, is when/whether the team should stop paying him year by year and plunge into a long term contract.

The comp that keeps popping into my head, maybe because it serves as the cautionary tale, is Ryan Howard. Both are large,

slugging 1st baseman who reached the majors in their mid-20s

Pete did get a slight jump on Howard by playing a full season at age 24 where RH was just getting his feet wet (39 ML ABs)

but Howard quickly jumped to higher peak seasons.

 

[td]AGE[/td]	[td]Ryan Howard[/td]	[td]OPS+[/td]	[td]Pete Alsonso[/td]	[td]OPS+[/td]
[td]24[/td]	[td]39 ABs[/td]	[td]122[/td]	[td]ROY-1, MVP-7[/td]	[td]147[/td]
[td]25[/td]	[td]88 G, ROY-1[/td]	[td]133[/td]	[td]Covid Season[/td]	[td]122[/td]
[td]26[/td]	[td]MVP-1[/td]	[td]167[/td]	[td][/td]	[td]133[/td]
[td]27[/td]	[td]MVP-5[/td]	[td]145[/td]	[td]MVP-8[/td]	[td]146[/td]
[td]28[/td]	[td]MVP-2[/td]	[td]125[/td]	[td]MVP-17[/td]	[td]124[/td]
[td]29[/td]	[td]MVP-3[/td]	[td]141[/td]	[td]-----[/td]	[td]---[/td]
[td]30[/td]	[td]MVP-10[/td]	[td]127[/td]	[td]-----[/td]	[td]---[/td]
[td]31[/td]	[td]MVP-10[/td]	[td]126[/td]	[td]-----[/td]	[td]---[/td]
[td]32[/td]	[td]71 G[/td]	[td]91[/td]	[td]-----[/td]	[td]---[/td]
[td]33[/td]	[td]80 G[/td]	[td]115[/td]	[td]-----[/td]	[td]---[/td]
[td]34[/td]	[td]153 G[/td]	[td]92[/td]	[td]-----[/td]	[td]---[/td]
[td]35[/td]	[td]129 G[/td]	[td]96[/td]	[td]-----[/td]	[td]---[/td]
[td]36[/td]	[td]112 G[/td]	[td]85[/td]	[td]-----[/td]	[td]---[/td]

 

The mistake the Phillies made, and I remember thinking this at the time, is that by the time they signed Howard to a multi-year

deal he was already into his early 30s and in what turned out to be the start to a significant decline in both output and availability.

Had he been with the Braves (then or now) they would have wished him well and immediately set off looking for a replacement.

Of course had Pete come up with the Braves they probably would have signed him long-term coming off his rookie season (or

maybe while still in the middle of it) but the Mets haven't shown that they buy into that philosophy and certainly weren't going

to do it in the midst of the Wilpon/Cohen transitional mess.

Alonso becomes a FA the winter he'll turn 30 following the '24 season. Given the length of contracts now in vogue it'll be tough

NOT to sign him into his late '30s and we know that the track record of aging sluggers in the steroid testing era, even among

the elites (Pujols, Cabrera) isn't a pretty one. If you want to pick another slugging comp, Judge, with an MVP plus two other

top fives under his belt, just signed for 9 years starting at age 31. Be interesting to see how that one turns out.

So I guess what I'm asking here is, what's your plan Stan?

 

Interesting to go back to the initial post in this long thread.

If the Mets would have signed him to a five-year deal on the day of Post #1, then they'd be looking at having him signed up through 2027, which would be their ideal contract at this point in time.

[Edgy MD]

I do not know what the ideal contract for the Mets would be (ten years for one dollar, I guess), but I am not sure we have any reason to believe that Alonso would have signed for five years at the time.

[roger_that]

I do not know what the ideal contract for the Mets would be (ten years for one dollar, I guess), but I am not sure we have any reason to believe that Alonso would have signed for five years at the time.

 

I'm far from sure as well, but it was definitely a possibility.

[Frayed Knot]

A five year deal signed in the winter of '22-'23 might have been an ideal length of contract for the Mets as it would have paid for Pete's final two arbitration seasons plus the first three years of his FA-gency before ending just as he was turning 33 years y/o. All of which also stand as reasons why Scott Boras would have talked Pete out of signing it even on the off chance that he was inclined to do so in the first place.

oe: and now he ties the NYM record as I'm typing.

[roger_that]

A five year deal signed in the winter of '22-'23 might have been an ideal length of contract for the Mets as it would have paid for Pete's final two arbitration seasons plus the first three years of his FA-gency before ending just as he was turning 33 years y/o. All of which also stand as reasons why Scott Boras would have talked Pete out of signing it even on the off chance that he was inclined to do so in the first place.

oe: and now he ties the NYM record as I'm typing.

 

We'll never know

[Frayed Knot]

Yes, we don't KNOW ... but

'Hey Pete, Scott here. The Mets want to sign you to a contract that will postpone your FA status by three years and give you your first chance at the open market as a 1B/DH at age 33'.

Pete: **** yeah, jump on it!!"

I'm betting 'No' on that scenario.

[roger_that]

Yes, we don't KNOW ... but

'Hey Pete, Scott here. The Mets want to sign you to a contract that will postpone your FA status by three years and give you your first chance at the open market as a 1B/DH at age 33'.

Pete: **** yeah, jump on it!!"

I'm betting 'No' on that scenario.

"Hey, Pete, Scott here. The Mets want to sign to a contract that beats the hell out of what arbitration will give you by a few million for the next two years and then guarantees you three years of what you're worth on the open market right now."

Pete: "That sounds like a terrible deal. I'll take my chances on getting a career-ending injury. You're fired, Scott."

[roger_that]

We may as well get started here. It just happens that I’ve devoted three separate blogs to this subject, two during the 2024 season (before he re-signed for 2025) and one in the middle of the 2025 season, all recommending strongly that the Mets not sign Pete to a long-term contract, which is also my current recommendation, based on the 10 players listed as his most comparable players in his baseball-reference.com. notation, which list changes from time to time slightly so I might as well review the current Top 10 comparables now, though I doubt it will have changed much, nor will my mind.

This is a link to the third installment of my blog

https://authory.com/StevenGoldleaf/Alonso-threedux-a013703a83f7445918bb9a217c21ba566?c=c2b732fa64aa54b95a93fc3752ffaf7b6

Which I’d recommend you read third—it begins with links to installments #1 and #2, so you can read them, if you like, in order and see my reasoning and evidence in some detail. If you’d rather not, I’ll sum up my position for you here:

The vast majority of the 10 are all oversized slugging first basemen like Pete who went on in their early 30s to crash and burn. I took this as a strong warning sign to the Mets that that’s the fate they’re exposing themselves to if they were to sign Pete through his late 30s. I recommend they let him go, and use the bazillions they would have spent on him instead on signing the best free-agent centerfielder available, or failing that, trading for a decent centerfielder and bolstering their team elsewhere.

Of course, you may not buy the concept that the comparables list has any predictive elements at all. When it speaks as strongly as Pete’s comparables do, however, I think it holds some weight and I’d as soon not take the gamble that he’ll continue to slug for years and years.

[kcmets]

This is a link to the third installment of my blog

https://authory.com/StevenGoldleaf/Alonso-threedux-a013703a83f7445918bb9a217c21ba566?c=c2b732fa64aa54b95a93fc3752ffaf7b6

 

Wai' wai' WUH?

I need to stop sniffing glue...

[YOUTUBE]RfDogCLoXA8[/YOUTUBE]

[whippoorwill]

I need to stop sniffing glue...

You and me both!

[Benjamin Grimm]

This is a very surprising revelation. But it doesn't really ring true. I'm... confused.

[kcmets]

After 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 will never be topped... Ever.

[kcmets]

This is a very surprising revelation. But it doesn't really ring true. I'm... confused.

 

Had me fooled. Perhaps still...

Not that it matters at all.

[whippoorwill]

Best hoax ever!

[Centerfield]

I'm not sure I quite understand what's going on.

Anyway. Back to Alonso.

Alonso is entering his age 31 season. A dangerous time for aging sluggers. Can we summarize what history has shown us?

The Early guys.

*Chris Davis. Decline started age 31. Fell off a cliff at 32.

*Ryan Howard. Fell off a cliff at age 32. I think there was an Achilles injury

*Justin Upton. Fell off a cliff after age 30.

The Late Guys

*David Ortiz. MVP Numbers at age 40.

*Jim Thome. 34 HR at age 36

*Adrian Beltre. Productive through age 37.

*Nelson Cruz. Prime lasted to age 40.

*Joey Votto. Productive through age 37

Everyone Else

*Albert Pujols. Stopped being dominant at age 32, but was productive through age 36

*Paul Goldshmidt. Dominant through age 34. Productive at 35. Bad after.

*Nolan Arenado. Dropped off sharply after age 32.

*Miguel Cabrera. Fell off a cliff after age 33.

*Jose Bautista. Good through age 35

*JD Martinez. Good through age 35. Bad after.

*Giancarlo Stanton. Crushed with injuries, but is still mashing at age 35 when healthy

*Carlos Santana. Fell off sharply after age 33.

So in other words, Alonso could be shot already. Or he could have 2-4 years left in his prime (this is probably what we're looking at). Or he has a decade of mashing left in his career.

So if I were David Stearns, I'd see what the market is. If it's a 6-7 year deal, you can't bring him back. Especially with several long term contracts already on the books. If it's a 3 year deal, I think you make that move. 4-5 year deal, seems risky too. But then again, you only have a short window left for this core of players.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'd be really surprised if he got six or seven years. Four or five is most likely. For that, I'd bring him back. He won't be easily replaced.

[The Hot Corner]

I would lean toward 3 years (preferably) or 4 years (less desirable). Beyond that length, he likely becomes an albatross in the later years of the contract. I'm thinking 3 years/$115-120 mil. or 4 years/$145-150 mil. I would be agreeable to a player opt out after the second year (of either deal). Of course, it isn't my money, so it is easy to throw out dollar figures. More than that, he can walk and watch Soto break his beloved franchise HR record in 5-6 years.

[Frayed Knot]

I'm not sure that the market for Pete will be a whole lot different than it was last off-season.

To his advantage, he's coming off a better year than he had in '24. On the down side, he's a year older.

Not sure if those two exactly cancel each other out, but it's hard to see the landscape looking drastically different for the same player just a year apart.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Another factor is that there's no QO this time. But the general consensus seems to be that his defense has declined noticeably. That will work against him.

[Centerfield]

It will be interesting to see what type of market develops for Pete. Jon Heyman (Scott Boras) recently opined that the top landing spots for Alonso could include the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners, Astros and Rangers. His list did not include the Padres, a team that I figured might be in the mix. My thoughts on them:

1. Yankees. I think nothing would make Boras happier than starting another Yankees/Mets bidding war. But it's tough to see the Yankees being heavily in the mix. Bellinger is a free agent, and they'll be motivated to bring him back. Stanton is clogging up DH. And they have Ben Rice who played 50 games or so at 1B. And put up nice numbers. It's hard to see them committing big money and big years to a 1B/DH.

2. Red Sox. Tristan Casas will be back at some point in 2026. There were rumblings that the front office wasn't ready to ink him in as the first baseman in 2026, but that appears to be injury related. The kid is very promising, and has a career OPS of .800 over his first 900 PAs. I think it would be foolish to block him with a long term deal for Alonso. Plus, their priority is re-signing Bregman.

3. Mariners. Maybe. But it's been surmised that the Mariners wouldn't spend to bring back Josh Naylor. If they're not able to afford Naylor, how would they afford Alonso? Naylor is a few years younger, a better defender, but lacks the power of Alonso.

4. Rangers. Texas is kind of a wild card. There is a definite opening at 1B. Texas needs offense badly, and they have some money to spend. They may be a team to watch.

5. Astros. I don't see how this one makes any sense. Houston has Christian Walker signed for two more years, at $20M per year.

One team not included in Heyman's list is the Padres. Luis Arraez played 1B for them this year, and he's a free agent. It's unclear how much they will spend now that Peter Seidler has died, but I guess that's a team to watch.

Outside of these 6 teams, I don't really see another landing spot. Half the teams in MLB don't spend enough to realistically compete for Alonso. Of the top spenders, the Dodgers, Phillies, Toronto, Atlanta, Cubs all have incumbents. The Giants just called up Bryce Eldridge, their big 1B prospect. Maybe Arizona or the Angels surprise everyone? I dunno. Hopefully this thing doesn't drag until February.

[roger_that]

The Yankees are heavily involved, if only to raise the stakes. But I think they'll get a big kick out of signing Pete as well.

Do you see anything of merit in my argument that Pete's comparables have, almost to a man, declined sharply in their mid-30s? Do you discredit "comparables"? I put a lot of weight on them.

Yes, a three-year contract would be ideal. From the Mets' perspective. From Pete's, a seven- or eight-year deal would be perfect. And I think he'll get a few offers of at least five years.

[Centerfield]

What is the argument about the comparables?

My post was meant to suggest that most players decline during that 32-35 window. Most of the time sharply. There are outliers that age earlier, some that age later.

[roger_that]

What is the argument about the comparables?

My post was meant to suggest that most players decline during that 32-35 window. Most of the time sharply. There are outliers that age earlier, some that age later.

 

Well, yes, it's obviously the case that the vast majority of players decline after age 32. (Obvious to some, anyway.) My point about Pete's comparables in particular (see link on previous page) is that they decline very sharply (to the point of being out of baseball entirely) in almost all cases, and are horrible choices to expend a long-term contract on for big money.

I looked up the current 10 most comparable players. They all stunk the joint out after age 32, except those who are still playing at around Pete's age. (Olson)

Similar Batters

Khris Davis (937.3)

Jim Gentile (919.3)

Glenn Davis (905.0)

Rhys Hoskins (901.3)

Nate Colbert (900.6)

C.J. Cron (898.0)

Christian Walker (897.4)

Dick Stuart (897.4)

Matt Olson (892.6)

Paul Sorrento (890.9)

[rchurch314]

The Mets need him so bad.

This should've been, roughly, what you expected from him, but I suspect if other teams believed that they would've maybe found a better offer for him than the Mets.

Now they saw it and recency bias will make him more attractive. He's not going to get a huge deal, and now a lot of teams will figure he'll still be a good bopper for a few years. His defense and baserunning have always been terrible. 1B defense is underrated though, so that probably doesn't turn anyone off, especially depending on DH openings.

The Mets though, the Mets need him. The same way they needed him last year. You can't replace that thump with one player and they need that. You can't trust anybody in-house to be good enough to stick at first right now. Unless you want to teach Soto that, which is outside the box thinking that might be worth exploring. There's the assumption that Soto will spend most of his 30s at DH though, but which is actually far enough off that Alonso probably bridge that.

The one benefit of retaining Mendoza is having the foreknowledge/plan on that sort of roster deployment. How much does he want to put Alvarez at DH? Vientos? These questions aren't new--The Mets have had a disjointed overlap of positions for a few years.

They've got a lot of decisions to make, bets to place, on some of the younger guys. All the more reason to keep someone like Alonso.

[MFS62]

Similar Batters

Khris Davis (937.3)

Jim Gentile (919.3)

Glenn Davis (905.0)

Rhys Hoskins (901.3)

Nate Colbert (900.6)

C.J. Cron (898.0)

Christian Walker (897.4)

Dick Stuart (897.4)

Matt Olson (892.6)

Paul Sorrento (890.9)

 

What are those numbers? Because if that's the average OPS after they turned 32 , that ain't bad.

Later

Edited October 8, 2025 by MFS62

[kcmets]

They're Sim Scores from baseballreferencedotcom.

Explained here:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/similarity.shtml

Edited October 8, 2025 by kcmets

[MFS62]

Thanks, Kase. I should have recognized that.

Funny that he used 32, because at ages 32 -34, Ted Williams was in military service.

But when he returned:

age 35 .345/.513/.635

age 36 .356/.496/.703

age 37 .345/.479/.605

and at ages 39 AND 39 he led the league in batting.

I'm not saying Alonso will do the same. But every player is different. And CF gave examples of other older players who were productive in his post.

Later