The Pete Alonso Conundrum

[ashie62]

You would trade everybody??

[Edgy MD]

If I ran the team, they'd be 185-0, have dozens of hit records from this year alone, and be dressed like The Baseball Furies. The pitchers would bat, the uniform elements would be sewn on, and the manager would be a mute German guy named Ernst.

Also, no "Piano Man." I figure fans would be OK with me banning that, because we'd be 185-0, and they'd also be crazy about Ernst.

[ashie62]

You mean Klaus Nomi?

[Cowtipper]

Players since 1980, 240+ lb., 150+ HR, .260 or worse BA (not exhaustive):

G. Stanton: Declined markedly at 32.

A Dunn: At 31.

R Howard: At 32.

C. Davis: At 30.

G. Sanchez: At 27.

M. Sano: At 27.

P. Alvarez: At 30.

J. Bell: At 30.

L. Duda: At 32.

C. Carter: At 30.

J. Gallo: Outside of power, never really got good enough offensively to have been capable of declining markedly.

To answer your question about trading people, yes, I'm all for it if that means building a core that will actually win in the future, more than one year in a row at a time. But they've been chasing that ghost since I've been following the Mets so maybe that will never happen.

Edited June 5, 2024 by Cowtipper

[ashie62]

The only thing that bedaffles me is why Alonso is still with this team. He's just taking up space. Time to start auditioning for the future now, not August 1. He's nearing his total collapse and the Mets might as well ditch him while he still has value.

 

More hyperbole

[ashie62]

Players since 1980, 240+ lb., 150+ HR, .260 or worse BA (not exhaustive):

G. Stanton: Declined markedly at 32.

A Dunn: At 31.

R Howard: At 32.

C. Davis: At 30.

G. Sanchez: At 27.

M. Sano: At 27.

P. Alvarez: At 30.

J. Bell: At 30.

L. Duda: At 32.

C. Carter: At 30.

J. Gallo: Outside of power, never really got good enough offensively to have been capable of declining markedly.

To answer your question about trading people, yes, I'm all for it if that means building a core that will actually win in the future.

 

You are cherry picking your responses

[Cowtipper]

The only thing that bedaffles me is why Alonso is still with this team. He's just taking up space. Time to start auditioning for the future now, not August 1. He's nearing his total collapse and the Mets might as well ditch him while he still has value.

 

More hyperbole

 

No.

[Cowtipper]

Players since 1980, 240+ lb., 150+ HR, .260 or worse BA (not exhaustive):

G. Stanton: Declined markedly at 32.

A Dunn: At 31.

R Howard: At 32.

C. Davis: At 30.

G. Sanchez: At 27.

M. Sano: At 27.

P. Alvarez: At 30.

J. Bell: At 30.

L. Duda: At 32.

C. Carter: At 30.

J. Gallo: Outside of power, never really got good enough offensively to have been capable of declining markedly.

To answer your question about trading people, yes, I'm all for it if that means building a core that will actually win in the future.

 

You are cherry picking your responses

I'm showing there is considerable precedent for what I've said about Alonso and that it doesn't just happen now and then.

Feel free to come up with your own evidence-based rebuttals instead of just issuing five-word critiques of mine.

[Cowtipper]

What constitutes an audition

An audition is when you give someone a tryout at something.

Edited June 5, 2024 by Cowtipper

[kcmets]

I'm not convinced the Mets want the Mets to succeed.

 

Oh well.

[Frayed Knot]

A bit premature, and still a small sample size, but perhaps a candidate for the 2025 (and beyond) NYM 1st baseman:

2024 June + July stats (not including tonight):

Pete Alonso: .242/.320/.445 in 128/147 ABs/PAs

Mark Vientos: .270/.320/.513 in 115/125 ABs

oe: Age difference = 5 years [25 & 30 this December]. Payroll difference = ?????, but a whole lot!!

At the very least it's something to keep an eye on for the remainder of the season.

Edited July 11, 2024 by Frayed Knot

[batmagadanleadoff]

Mark Vientios is now a beast and the Mets scariest hitter. Hope his awesomeness lasts and it's not a fluke.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Mark Vientios is now a beast and the Mets scariest hitter. Hope his awesomeness lasts and it's not a fluke.

 

Also, small sample size, like you said, but Alonso was never as good as Vientos is this year, not even in 2019. And 2019 was the year of the juiciest juice ball in the history of mankind while this year is closer to 1968, the year of the pitcher. Vientos is absolutely killing it this year.

[Lefty Specialist]

A bit premature, and still a small sample size, but perhaps a candidate for the 2025 (and beyond) NYM 1st baseman:

2024 June + July stats (not including tonight):

Pete Alonso: .242/.320/.445 in 128/147 ABs/PAs

Mark Vientos: .270/.320/.513 in 115/125 ABs

oe: Age difference = 5 years [25 & 30 this December]. Payroll difference = ?????, but a whole lot!!

At the very least it's something to keep an eye on for the remainder of the season.

 

I've thought about that too. Pete's going to want an awfully long contract, and Stearns may not want to give it to him.

[batmagadanleadoff]

A bit premature, and still a small sample size, but perhaps a candidate for the 2025 (and beyond) NYM 1st baseman:

2024 June + July stats (not including tonight):

Pete Alonso: .242/.320/.445 in 128/147 ABs/PAs

Mark Vientos: .270/.320/.513 in 115/125 ABs

oe: Age difference = 5 years [25 & 30 this December]. Payroll difference = ?????, but a whole lot!!

At the very least it's something to keep an eye on for the remainder of the season.

 

I've thought about that too. Pete's going to want an awfully long contract, and Stearns may not want to give it to him.

 

I've been thinking about that for weeks now.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets and Alonso’s agent, Scott Boras, have not yet been able to agree on Alonso’s value. Boras has said he’s open to listening to what the Mets have to offer, but he likes to take his clients to free agency to gauge their markets. Spotrac estimates his market value to be worth $32.9 per year, putting him in the realm of an eight-year, $263 million contract.

 

I think Spotrac, whoever that is, is way off, unless perhaps those numbers were calculated prior to the 2024 season. I would be very surprised if he got anything close to that.

[MFS62]

I don't even know who Abbey Mastracco is. I don't get the NY papers any more because we get the early editions up here. The sports news they have is usually two days old. My local paper at least has most of last night's box scores.

Later

[Centerfield]

If Mark can play 3B he should stay there. Moving him to 1B takes away from his value.

I’m not saying we have to resign Pete. Just that there’s no reason to leave defensive talent on the shelf.

[CitiFieldPornRoom]

I don't even know who Abbey Mastracco is. I don't get the NY papers any more because we get the early editions up here. The sports news they have is usually two days old. My local paper at least has most of last night's box scores.

Later

 

I didn't even know they made papers anymore.

Lot of baseball left. How you finish colors perceptions a lot. There's always the pillow contract.

[Frayed Knot]

The Mets and Alonso’s agent, Scott Boras, have not yet been able to agree on Alonso’s value. Boras has said he’s open to listening to what the Mets have to offer, but he likes to take his clients to free agency to gauge their markets. Spotrac estimates his market value to be worth $32.9 per year, putting him in the realm of an eight-year, $263 million contract.

 

I think Spotrac, whoever that is, is way off, unless perhaps those numbers were calculated prior to the 2024 season. I would be very surprised if he got anything close to that.

 

And even if that $32.9 number is in the ballpark of where his Current value is, that doesn't mean it's a smart idea to simply take that and multiply it by eight for Pete to sign on the bottom line.

My guess is that the Mets will look to go much shorter term. That starts with the one-year Qualifying Offer and from there discuss three to four years.

Boras isn't going to like that but if I'm Stearns/Cohen I'm daring some team to offer Pete five-plus and would be willing to wave bye-bye if one did.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think that's how you have to play it.

[CitiFieldPornRoom]

The Mets are better with Pete than without.

It's almost impossible to replace that type of power.

The ball is pretty dead this year.

Steve Cohen is 10 billion dollars richer since he bought the Mets.

If winning is a serious goal, there seems to be zero reason to let Alonso get away.

[Frayed Knot]

"The Mets are better with Pete than without" -- Sure. But it's not as simple as merely saying: 'Mets w/Pete in 2025 > Mets w/o Pete in 2025'. It's about how long you have to commit to Pete in order to keep him a NYM in 2025. There is a point -- there's ALWAYS is a point -- at which it's smart to say 'No', either because of dollars or length or both, and walk away.

"It's almost impossible to replace that type of power." -- Until you look across the diamond where we find a guy who's five years younger, under team control thru 2029, is probably 1/20th of the price right now, and has 75% as many HRs this season compared to Pete in 60% of the plate appearances. I'm not saying it's a case of either/or but replacing P.A. with M.V. is an option that wasn't even on the radar when I started this thread some 20 months ago, and it's one that's worth considering.

"The ball is pretty dead this year." -- I have no idea if that's true but, even if so, it's true across the board.

"Steve Cohen is 10 billion dollars richer since he bought the Mets." -- Again, no idea if that's accurate but it's largely irrelevant as far as I'm concerned as to what they do with Pete. I'm not trying to save Uncle Steve money here, I'd just like to see them make the best baseball decision for the team in both short and long term.

"If winning is a serious goal, there seems to be zero reason to let Alonso get away." -- Nobody is irreplaceable. The Braves thrive without both Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson. San Diego is near the top without Soto or Blake Snell. The Cards allowed Albert Pujols to walk and went to the playoffs eight times in eleven years (much better than the team who signed him) despite his departure. The Nats won a WS the year after Harper left.

anyway, it's a topic to be revisited in the winter of '24-'25

[Gwreck]

"It's almost impossible to replace that type of power." -- Until you look across the diamond where we find a guy who's five years younger, under team control thru 2029, is probably 1/20th of the price right now, and has 75% as many HRs this season compared to Pete in 60% of the plate appearances. I'm not saying it's a case of either/or but replacing P.A. with M.V. is an option that wasn't even on the radar when I started this thread some 20 months ago, and it's one that's worth considering.

 

There’s one huge problem with this analysis: the Mets need both players (and have needed both) to be successful this year. If you “replace” Alonso with Vientos, then there’s still a hole in the lineup to be “replaced.”

[Frayed Knot]

There are Always holes in the lineup/rotation/pen that need to be replaced. Every season, every team.

But the biggest mistake GMs make (both actual GMs and us amateur ones) is in thinking that someone is irreplaceable and therefore needs to be kept at all costs.

Stearns et al have a decision to make with Pete at the end of the year and Pete has a say in how that all goes. But if the choice comes down to signing a 30 y/o 1B/DH, whose best statistical season is still his first and the current one arguably his worst, to an expensive and long term deal it then makes sense to consider options that move forward without him. Vientos's emergence and the possibility of moving him across the diamond while replacing him with someone else (Baty?, Acuna?, trade/FA?) provides them with one additional such option that few if any even considered just four months ago.

[TheNextMetsManager]

Letting Alonso go is actually an easy decision

if.

they invest and have a good plan for the future. They have good player dev and fix Alvarez, etc. His power is pretty nearly irreplaceable, and it plays in a pitcher's park. Pete's been doing this for a long time, Vientos doesn't even have a full season, you simply can't just say "oh go play first and do what you're doing." and think that's enough. You need that home run power.

Alonso plays poor defense. He's at 1B. Sure, you could DH him but why lock yourself down there? Plus he doesn't want to.

Mets are 6th in run creation this year, 8th in the second half. Not terrible, but not comfortable in the "we hit well enough so we can focus on other holes" game.

Alonso's 133 wRC+ in the second half is on par with his career norm. That's 48th of 131 qualified hitters even. He's a good hitter.

He's just SO one-dimensional that it does present all sorts of opportunities to replace him.

On the other hand, the solution to replace him offensively is simply a money one. You couple simply refuse to be outbid for Soto.

[smg58]

On the other hand, the solution to replace him offensively is simply a money one. You couple simply refuse to be outbid for Soto.

 

This. Or, at the very least, disregard the idea that the league's biggest payroll would have difficulty replacing a 1B/DH type north of 30 who can no longer guarantee you an .800 OPS.

[MFS62]

They would have to replace him with someone who could consistently drive in runs.

Later

[ashie62]

You don't want to sign aging borderline fat first Basemen to long term contracts

When Pete's belly goes look out

[metirish]

You don't want to sign aging borderline fat first Basemen to long term contracts

When Pete's belly goes look out

 

Starts with the hairline