Quiz: Impactful Mets Homers

[Gwreck]

Using the stat Win Probability Added, what are the 10 most impactful Mets postseason homers of all time?

Ok, that might be easy.  We’ll still take answers though.

If you want a real challenge: what are the 10 least impactful Mets postseason homers? 

[Frayed Knot]

Lenny's 1986 Game 3 NLCS 2R-HR off Dave Smith to flip the game

[Gwreck]

Lenny is #1.  73% WPA.  The only Mets postseason walk-off homer while trailing.

[Frayed Knot]

Woo-Hoo!

Nothing like going from behind to a 'W' on one pitch in the bottom of the 9th 

[Cowtipper]

This is tough, because who in the world thinks in terms of WPA? I'll say Robin Ventura's grand slam is up there. Oh wait, that didn't count as a home run. How about Benny Agbayani's home run in the 2000 NLDS.

[metirish]

Todd Pratt 1999 V Arizona 

[Gwreck]

Ventura’s grand slam (of course we all know it was a grand slam) in Game 5 of the 1999 NLCS ranks #35 at 16% WPA.  Some may have forgotten that the game was already tied at that point (Pratt worked out a bases-loaded walk, actually a higher-leverage play at +29% WPA).    With bases loaded and one out, it was already pretty likely the Mets would win.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think Todd, Lenny, and Benny are all of the walkoffs.

I'll guess Darryl Strawberry's three-run homer in Game 6 in Houston.

[Gwreck]

Highest-Leverage

1. Dykstra, 1986 NLCS Game 3 Walk-off

2.

3. 

4t. Todd Pratt, 1999 NLDS Game 4 Walk-off 

4t. Benny Agbayani, 2000 NLDS Game 3 Walk-off

6.

7.

8. Darryl Strawberry, 1986 NLCS Game 3, 3-run game-tying homer in B6

 

Lowest-Leverage

[Gwreck]

3 minutes ago, Benjamin Grimm said:

I'll guess Darryl Strawberry's three-run homer in Game 6 in Houston.

Darryl hit a game-tying 3-run homer in the bottom of the 6th in Game 3 at Shea that ranks #8.  I assume that’s what you wanted?

[Benjamin Grimm]

No, I was recalling a home run against Bob Knepper in the Astrodome in Game 6 of the NLCS.

Am I remembering incorrectly?

[Gwreck]

The Mets did not hit a homer in the Astrodome in the 1986 NLCS.  The game 3 homer was off Knepper though. 

[Frayed Knot]

I'll go with Lindor's GS vs Philly in '24

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Did anyone say Alonso off Williams

[Gwreck]

They did now

Highest-Leverage

1. Lenny Dykstra, 1986 NLCS Game 3 Walk-off, 73% WPA

2. Pete Alonso, 2024 NLWCS Game 3, T9/3-run homer while down 2 runs, 64% WPA

3. 

4t. Todd Pratt, 1999 NLDS Game 4 Walk-off, 42% WPA 

4t. Benny Agbayani, 2000 NLDS Game 3 Walk-off, 42% WPA

6. Francisco Lindor, 2024 NLDS Game 4, B6, grand slam in 0-0 game, 35% WPA

7.

8. Darryl Strawberry, 1986 NLCS Game 3, 3-run game-tying homer in B6, 31% WPA

 

Lowest-Leverage

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Ray Knight, Game 7?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I remember a homer by Edgardo Alfonzo in Phoenix in the 1999 NLDS. Don't remember the specifics, however. I think it was a grand slam.

[Edgy MD]

Al Weis, Game Five, 1969 World Series.

[Gwreck]

Highest-Leverage

1. Lenny Dykstra, 1986 NLCS Game 3 Walk-off, 73% WPA

2. Pete Alonso, 2024 NLWCS Game 3, T9/3-run homer while down 2 runs, 64% WPA

3. Edgardo Alfonzo, 1999 NLDS Game 1, T9/Grand Slam in tied game.  45% WPA

4t. Todd Pratt, 1999 NLDS Game 4 Walk-off, 42% WPA 

4t. Benny Agbayani, 2000 NLDS Game 3 Walk-off, 42% WPA

6. Francisco Lindor, 2024 NLDS Game 4, B6, grand slam while down 1-0, 35% WPA

7.

8. Darryl Strawberry, 1986 NLCS Game 3, 3-run game-tying homer in B6, 31% WPA

—-

Al Weis is 13 at 24% WPA.  Knight is tied for 16 at 22% WPA.

Lowest-Leverage

[Edgy MD]

Donn Clendennon, Game Five, 1969 World Serious.

[Gwreck]

Comes in tied for #22, at 19% WPA.  Clendenon’s homer cut the Orioles’ lead from 3-0 to 3-2 in the bottom of the 6th but wasn’t (by this measure) the highest leverage HR from the 1969 postseason.

Also in our top 10 is another from 2024 and the highest leverage homer from 2006.

[Edgy MD]

Well, I guess Strawberry off Tudor in the 1988 NLCS is right out.

[Gwreck]

That’s tied for #14, 23% WPA.   Tied the game but was only in the bottom of the 4th.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Asdrubal Cabrera was regular season, I think. Still a cool homer

[Edgy MD]

3 minutes ago, Johnny Lunchbucket said:

Asdrubal Cabrera was regular season, I think. Still a cool homer

Asdrubal, it turns out, doesn't always appreciate batflips.

 

[Gwreck]

Cabrera’s was a +81% WPA.  It’s among the very highest regular season Mets homers; I think we discussed that a couple years back when considering the Steve Henderson homer (+92% WPA and maybe the highest ever for a Mets homer).

But none of that was postseason of course…

[Edgy MD]

The extra fun part is when it's tabulated how a hit influences a game, compounded with how a game turns a season, and the season turns the likelihood of a championship.

Somebody calculated that some time ago, and it was concluded that the biggest fate turner in Mets regular season history was the Ron Hodges soft-liner walkoff in 1973 that (a) should have been caught, and (b) is far less remembered than the tag out at home he made earlier in the game.

I don't know if that is still true, or if the Lindor home has displaced it.

 

[Gwreck]

Bumping this up if there’s still interest/if anyone is as interested in the least impactful playoff homers as I am.  Answers to come before tomorrow’s game otherwise.

[Edgy MD]

That homer Jay Payton hit in the ninth inning of the Clemens/Piazza game.  It would have been huge if another guy was on, but it turned out to not be so much.

Offa Mariano Rivera, too.

[seawolf17]

Lenny in Game 3 in Boston on the low end? Leadoff homer in the top of the first can't move the needle that much.