Final Week TWiB Notes of 2025

[Frayed Knot]

With the NL being essentially a scramble for the final WC slot, there will certainly be plenty of discussion in other threads for that subject.

So it's all eyes towards the AL as we navigate through the final week.



East: Yanx are streaking while the Blue Jays tread water.

So the Yanx could not only win the division but whoever wins will have the all-important first round Bye and probably the best AL record overall (though

neither will be as good as MIL or PHI (barring something really unusual) so the NL gets the home field in the WS.

Jays have the tie-breaker if there's a tie but the sked advantage looks to be with NY

Jays: BOS x3, TBR x3, all in Toronto

Yanx: CHW x3, BAL x3, all in da Bronx



Central: The Tigers are cratering while Guardians are going nuts so a lead that was once 15-1/2 games and was 9-1/2 as recently as 12 days ago, is now

just one skinny game. And Cleveland holds the head-to-head edge at the moment (6-4) although that could change because ...

BECAUSE THEY PLAY EACH OTHER STARTING TOMORROW!!, that's why.

In 21 September games (16-5) the Guardians have allowed 51 runs scored, 2.43/G!! (aka: the Mets staff just in 3rd innings)

Tigers: CLE x3, BOS x3 - both on the road!!

Guardians: DET x3, TEX x3 - both series at home



West: the Mariners just laid a three-game ass-whoopin' on the Astros [4-0, 6-4, 7-3 - in that last one the M's scored all 7 in the 2nd so it wasn't even that close].

So the 'stros, who had led the division almost exclusively since early June are now not only 3G out but are in the same position as us ... out of the playoffs

entirely! by virtue of a tie-breaker.

SEA: COL x3, LAD x3, both in Seattle

HOU: ATH x3, LAA x3, both on the road (so 4 of the 6 games to save their season are late night (9:30 or 10:00) start times for the home viewers)



Wild Card: Right now it's NYY #1, BOS #2 (3G back), CLE #3 (1G behind Sox)

But the big story is that Houston and Detroit, seemingly both in cruise control for most of the second half, are both in danger of no playoffs at all.

Astros are currently tied with Guardians for slot #3 but it's essentially five teams for four slots -- two division winners plus the 2nd & 3rd WC -- so one

of DET, SEA, HOU, BOS, CLE is playing golf starting Monday





All these series start on Tuesday so six straight in each case.

Only Toronto has a playoff slot (though not the division) clinched although the Yanx would have to run off the road into a ditch to not advance.

In the NL: PHI, MIL (divisions) CHC & LAD (at least a WC) have clinched.

[Gwreck]

Frayed Knot wrote: but whoever wins will have the all-important first round Bye and probably the best AL record overall (though neither will be as good as MIL or PHI (barring something really unusual) so the NL gets the home field in the WS.

Not sure I'd be so quick to assume that MIL or PHI will necessarily represent the NL in the World Series.



Seattle is 3 back of Toronto for the top record in the AL, so they're still in contention for that slot.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, I should have said 'if form holds' the NL would hold the home field advantage.

But, as of now, the top NL teams hold a clear advantage over the top AL teams as the last lap comes around.

[Gwreck]

The point was that home field advantage for the WS is determined by the records of the two teams actually participating. Forget the Reds/Mets/Padres/etc. — the Dodgers (not exactly a dark horse) would not have home field over multiple AL teams.

[Frayed Knot]

So the Braves, with a ten game winning streak to their credit even though it won't be enough to save them from being a sub-.500 team for the first time since 2017, had a day game at home vs the Nats to finish off the penultimate series for both. The Braves led off bottom 9 with a HR to close to 4-3 but two quick Ks and its bases empty/two outs.

- Up comes Ronald Acuna who grounds out to end the game. Or did he? Nope, video review overturns C.B. Bucknor's call and the game continues.

- RoY candidate Drake Baldwin is next and he also beats out an infield single so it's tying on 2nd, winning on 1st, and the home fans are getting excited.

** BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE! **

The Nats challenge the play this time and, yes, C.B. Bucknor gets overturned for a second consecutive batter and the game is NOW over for real.



The box score should list Bucknor as being 0h/two w/two GOs

[Frayed Knot]

Meanwhile in the AL last night (whilst we were all busy fretting)



- the Mariners won and in doing so clinched a playoff spot (3rd time this century: 2001 & '17) and all but clinched the AL West (4 G lead over HOU w/5 to play)



- the Yanx also clinched a WC spot AND closed to within one game of Toronto for the ALE lead (Jays hold tie-breaker)

Those two teams also currently hold the #1 & 2 best records in the AL, ahead of both Seattle and Cleveland/Detroit so winning the division holds big benefits



- and speaking of Detroit, they're now on the outside looking in after losing in Cleveland despite throwing Tarik Skubal. The two teams are tied but CLE holds the tie-breaker.

The Guardians are 17-5 in September. The Tigers are 5-14 (an unusual three games played discrepancy)



- and so the WC teams are almost certain to be the non-winner of NYY/TOR plus a four-for-two spots between the BoSox (+1), the non-winner of CLE/DET, and HOU (-1)

[Edgy MD]

It is too scary to embed a video of, but David Fry got hit in the face with a 99-mph fastball by Tarik Skubal.



It was doubly scary because he was squared to bunt, so it hit him head on, and it looked to me like he might have caught it straight in the eye, but after a night in the hospital he was sent home to rest with his family.

[Frayed Knot]

"facial and nasal fractures" ... 6-8 weeks.

iow, next season

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, I suppose it would be possible that he could return if the Indians made a deep playoff run, but as the 2025 version of Fry is a .171-hitting backup DH, that doesn't seem particularly likely.

[Centerfield]

Dodgers fail to score the Manfred man in the top of the 10th.



Ohtani Betts and Freeman fail to get it done.



Betts hit a single but the runner is thrown out at home. Brutal.

[Centerfield]

Our buddy James McCann leaves them loaded. On to the 11th.

[Centerfield]

Tommy Edman two out drives home the go ahead run. Arizona fails to score bottom 11. Push day all around.

[Fman99]

=Centerfield post_id=205518 time=1758776679 user_id=65]
Tommy Edman two out drives home the go ahead run. Arizona fails to score bottom 11. Push day all around.

[Frayed Knot]

The Dodgers used both Kershaw and Roki Sasaki in relief during Wednesday's game.

Probably part out of necessity (they still have to stay ahead of SDP) and part potential playoff prep.







Mariners clinched the AL West, first time since 2001, behind HRs #59 & #60 from Cal Raleigh



Yanx won again, Blue Jays lost again. Tied for 1st AL East w/4 to go. Jays hold tie-breaker.



Tigers, losers to Cleveland again, currently one up on Astros for final AL WC

[Frayed Knot]

Tigers are up 4-2 with the bottom fo the 9th coming up in Cleveland, desperately trying for their first win since July.

OK, not July, but their 6th in September against 15 losses.

[Frayed Knot]

At the moment (subject to change, obviously) the AL 1st round match-ups are: Yanx v BoSox; Tigers v Guardians

[Frayed Knot]

So how are the AL teams of interest spending their final weekend? Glad you asked.



Yanx host Baltimore



Jays host Rays



Guardians host Rangers



Tigers @ BoSox



Mariners host Dodgers



Astros @ Angels

[Gwreck]

Milwaukee clinched best record in MLB when the Phillies lost. Cubs won and clinched the #4 seed with SD #5. NL seedings are set 1-5, and we all know what's at stake for the last spot.



Detroit and Cleveland both won, clinching playoff spots. Houston was eliminated, and the 6 AL teams are set, but aside from Seattle at #2, the other seedings are up in the air.



Sunday's AL games that matter:

-Toronto and Yankees are tied, Blue Jays have tiebreaker. One gets the AL East title and #1 seed, the other gets the #4 seed.



-Detroit and Cleveland are tied for the AL Central, Cleveland has the tiebreaker. One will be the #3 seed, and the other will play on the road in the WC series. (Cleveland cannot get the #5 seed if they don't win the division)



-Detroit is also one game back of Boston for the #5 seed, and has the tiebreaker over Boston.



Scoreboard watching could be quite interesting. If, say, Cleveland was out to a big lead (and thus the division was out of the question), Detroit might have an incentive to lose and get the #6 seed instead of #5, and avoid the Blue Jays/Yankees in the wild card round.

[MFS62]

Houston was eliminated from the playoffs.

Bang the can, slowly.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

Yanx up 1-0, but Blue Jays up 5-1 still batting in bottom 2

[Frayed Knot]

End of 4: Yanx 2 - Orioles 2

End of 3: Blue Jays 5 - Rays 4

[Frayed Knot]

Yanx/BAL still 2-2

But Jays now up 8-4





CLE down 4-3

DET down 4-3

[Frayed Knot]

Tigers lose. Guardians win AL Central

[Frayed Knot]

Yanx win on a run in the 9th ... but Toronto up 13-4 in the 8th

So no division title up in the Bronx

[Frayed Knot]

The Blue Jays have now officially won so that is all over.

[Chad ochoseis]

Frayed Knot wrote: Tigers lose. Guardians win AL Central

The biggest comeback in the history of baseball. No team had ever come in first in its division or its league after being 15 1/2 games out. But since the wild cards have rendered division championships almost meaningless, the upshot is that the Guardians get to play three games at home instead of two. And the comeback is met with a collective shrug.

[metirish]

Giants fire Bob Melvin