Roster problems/resolutions

[roger_that]

I brought this up elsewhere, but it will probably die there unaddressed, so I'll paraphrase what I asked there:



Assuming Manaea, Alvarex and McNeil return to the roster soon, Manaea can fill a slot in the rotation easy, of course, and some reliever goes down (but who?) and you just put Alvarez behind the plate and send Senger to AAA, but what do you do with McNeil? Specifically, what do you do with Acuna and Baty? The conventional thinking is that one of them, most likely Baty, goes to AAA, but I don't know. I'd try to find a way to keep all three at the MLB level, and go one pitcher short or maybe use Taylor as your day-in/day-out CFer and send Siri (or Azocar if Siri's not back) down to AAA. They've got two OFers now playing DH, each capable of playing in either corner OF position, and McNeil can spell Taylor in center if need be.



Of course, someone will most likely get hurt between now and McNeil's return, but that's my thinking. This business of having only one available backup infielder seems a dangerous long-term strategy--when Vientos went out suddenly today, we really had to hope we wouldn't need to put Torrens or whoever in if one other infielder got hurt, ejected from the game, whatever. Eventually having only one backup infielder is going to cost the Mets a game, in my opinion.



In my view, there's little need for so many relievers on the roster, given the closeness of Syracuse. Why not keep a group of pitchers on the 40-man roster with options (Kranick, Butto, Hagenman, Nunez, Warren, etc.) shuttling between NYC and Syracuse a little more often, and go with one more position player?

[Bob Alpacadaca]

I don't know if going down a reliever is optimal when so many starters go just five or six innings. Having two DHs on the roster who don't field at all could be a problem. I would guess Baty is the one most likely to go down, but its a good discussion.

[Cowtipper]

=roger_that post_id=190130 time=1745151369 user_id=128]
I brought this up elsewhere, but it will probably die there unaddressed, so I'll paraphrase what I asked there:



Assuming Manaea, Alvarex and McNeil return to the roster soon, Manaea can fill a slot in the rotation easy, of course, and some reliever goes down (but who?) and you just put Alvarez behind the plate and send Senger to AAA, but what do you do with McNeil? Specifically, what do you do with Acuna and Baty? The conventional thinking is that one of them, most likely Baty, goes to AAA, but I don't know. I'd try to find a way to keep all three at the MLB level, and go one pitcher short or maybe use Taylor as your day-in/day-out CFer and send Siri (or Azocar if Siri's not back) down to AAA. They've got two OFers now playing DH, each capable of playing in either corner OF position, and McNeil can spell Taylor in center if need be.



Of course, someone will most likely get hurt between now and McNeil's return, but that's my thinking. This business of having only one available backup infielder seems a dangerous long-term strategy--when Vientos went out suddenly today, we really had to hope we wouldn't need to put Torrens or whoever in if one other infielder got hurt, ejected from the game, whatever. Eventually having only one backup infielder is going to cost the Mets a game, in my opinion.



In my view, there's little need for so many relievers on the roster, given the closeness of Syracuse. Why not keep a group of pitchers on the 40-man roster with options (Kranick, Butto, Hagenman, Nunez, Warren, etc.) shuttling between NYC and Syracuse a little more often, and go with one more position player?

[roger_that]

=Cowtipper post_id=190138 time=1745154781 user_id=166]
=roger_that post_id=190130 time=1745151369 user_id=128]
I brought this up elsewhere, but it will probably die there unaddressed, so I'll paraphrase what I asked there:



Assuming Manaea, Alvarex and McNeil return to the roster soon, Manaea can fill a slot in the rotation easy, of course, and some reliever goes down (but who?) and you just put Alvarez behind the plate and send Senger to AAA, but what do you do with McNeil? Specifically, what do you do with Acuna and Baty? The conventional thinking is that one of them, most likely Baty, goes to AAA, but I don't know. I'd try to find a way to keep all three at the MLB level, and go one pitcher short or maybe use Taylor as your day-in/day-out CFer and send Siri (or Azocar if Siri's not back) down to AAA. They've got two OFers now playing DH, each capable of playing in either corner OF position, and McNeil can spell Taylor in center if need be.



Of course, someone will most likely get hurt between now and McNeil's return, but that's my thinking. This business of having only one available backup infielder seems a dangerous long-term strategy--when Vientos went out suddenly today, we really had to hope we wouldn't need to put Torrens or whoever in if one other infielder got hurt, ejected from the game, whatever. Eventually having only one backup infielder is going to cost the Mets a game, in my opinion.



In my view, there's little need for so many relievers on the roster, given the closeness of Syracuse. Why not keep a group of pitchers on the 40-man roster with options (Kranick, Butto, Hagenman, Nunez, Warren, etc.) shuttling between NYC and Syracuse a little more often, and go with one more position player?

[Bob Alpacadaca]

=roger_that post_id=190140 time=1745156809 user_id=128]




Saying Winker and Marte can't field is a bit harsh, don't you think?

[roger_that]

Agreed. I'm really talking about emergency fielders here, guys who can do a competent job for a few innings in a pinch. I'd be concerned if one day Lindor shows up with a 102 fever, so they have to start Acuna at short but he twists an ankle in the second inning. What then? Play a feverish Lindor for seven innings? Play Baty at short, and Vientos at second (or vice-versa) and Torrens at third? Ugh. I'd feel better with either Marte or Winker in center, or better yet, move Nimmo back to CF and play one of those guys in left (if Taylor were your only CFer and he went down in the middle of a game.) A middle infielder is harder to replace, in my view, than a CFer, who could go a whole game without a demanding play.

[Cowtipper]

"what do you do with Acuna and Baty"



Time to stop wasting time on Baty. He's not 22 anymore. Either use him or trade him.



He was twice a top-40 Baseball America prospect, so unless his fortunes change, he's already a bust.

[roger_that]

You could be sorry. He went 6-for-15 between April 13th and 18th, with 2 doubles and 2 RBIs.



Still, that's one vote for "shitcanning Baty." Anyone else? McNeil is close to being back, I understand.

[Cowtipper]

Bo Hart started his career hitting .489 through his first 45 at-bats.

[roger_that]

And Al Kaline began his career 2-for-13, both singles. Mays started out 1-for-26. Your point?



I'd say it's that small sample sizes mean very little. Which is an argument for Baty, rather than against him.

[Lefty Specialist]

Sending Baty to AAA is an easy decision. Same with Senger, the real life Crash Davis. Hope you enjoyed your time in the bigs.



When Manaea gets back I'd think they'd go to a 6-man rotation, so you send a reliever down. Young would be most likely, even though he's a lefty.

[Cowtipper]

And Al Kaline began his career 2-for-13, both singles. Mays started out 1-for-26. Your point?

Baty started his career with a .215 average through 591 at-bats.



Small samples are cute novelties but are largely meaningless; Baty's career is beyond "small sample" territory and is now in "established pattern" territory.

[The Hot Corner]

I don't believe the Mets will opt to send a pitcher down when McNeil is ready to join the team. Personally, I would go with Acuna over Baty to make room for McNeil. Acuna is better defensively, has elite speed which can be a valuable asset, and he can play shortstop (if needed) in addition to second or third.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=roger_that post_id=190246 time=1745188914 user_id=128]
And Al Kaline began his career 2-for-13, both singles. Mays started out 1-for-26. Your point?

[roger_that]

The Hot Corner wrote: I don't believe the Mets will opt to send a pitcher down when McNeil is ready to join the team.

You're probably right, but I'd rather they keep him and send a pitcher to AAA.

The Hot Corner wrote: Personally, I would go with Acuna over Baty to make room for McNeil. Acuna is better defensively, has elite speed which can be a valuable asset, and he can play shortstop (if needed) in addition to second or third.

Acuna is clearly more valuable than Baty for the reasons you cite. He stays, for sure.

[batmagadanleadoff]

And Al Kaline began his career 2-for-13, both singles. Mays started out 1-for-26. Your point? Baty started his career with a .215 average through 591 at-bats. Small samples are cute novelties but are largely meaningless; Baty's career is beyond "small sample" territory and is now in "established pattern" territory.

It's not just Baty's 591 AB's. Based on historical data from hundreds, if not thousands of previous prospects, the odds are now stacked heavily against Baty ever becoming a star. This is now his 4th season in the bigs. I'm not ruling anything out but prospects that continue to struggle like Baty has after this many years in the majors hardly ever reach their ceilings.

[roger_that]

And Al Kaline began his career 2-for-13, both singles. Mays started out 1-for-26. Your point? Baty started his career with a .215 average through 591 at-bats. Small samples are cute novelties but are largely meaningless; Baty's career is beyond "small sample" territory and is now in "established pattern" territory.

There are a lot of great hitters who had extended slow starts, which we attribute to bad luck, mostly. Clemente began 128-for-502 (.255) with an OBP under .300, and very little power. We don't need Baty to turn into Roberto Clemente to give him a few more big league ABs.



We're discussing a choice here between Baty and some 8th-line reliever, a guy who is virtually guaranteed to have a marginal big-league career. Baty's record in AAA suggests that he could be at least a regular player in MLB, and possibly a star.

[Lefty Specialist]

Sometimes you have to move on from a highly-touted guy that doesn't perform. Fernando Martinez and Lastings Milledge come to mind. Baty's had chances, but never seems to get over the hump. Mark Vientos passed him by. It happens.

[roger_that]

What exactly is the downside of giving Baty a few hundred more ABs? Possibly stunting Danny Young's career?

[Fman99]

It's pretty clear that Baty comes back to the 'Cuse to find his swing when McNeil's ready. He waits in the wings for an injury at one of the positions he's shown he can field, at least.

[roger_that]

=Fman99 post_id=190259 time=1745194847 user_id=86]
Baty comes back to the 'Cuse

[batmagadanleadoff]

To take Lefty's comparison of him and Vientos, let's look at their minor league records:

Also, Baty outhomered Vientos by six in T-Ball. You left that out.



Why don't you compare their Major League stats? Vientos - 1.9 bWAR; Baty - (-0.9) bWAR You left that out, too. But you didn't ask anybody whether or not they think that Baty will turn out to be the next Roberto Clemente or the next Al Kaline or the next (Gasp!) Willie Mays. Was that your point? You asked whether or not Baty should be demoted to AAA.



Ever hear of Tucker Ashford? Lou Klimchock? You should. They were one-time Mets. And some of the best similarity score comps for Baty.



Brent Morel? He's the highest similarity score comp for Baty. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morelbr01.shtmlhttps://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morelbr01.shtml



Wanna know who Vientos's top two similarity score comps are through his age 24 season? Frank Thomas and Jose Cruz.



Minor Leagues. Most major leaguers excel in the minors. And most of them have careers closer to Ashford than to Thomas and Cruz.



Ever heard of The Peter Principle*? It applies to just about every single baseball player who reached AAA. Brett Baty is on a major league roster right now because he had a good run in AAA and then in Spring Training. He was never any good in the majors. To put it frankly, he's been horseshit and a total drag on the team for his entire Major League career. And I'm acknowledging his fabulous debut at-bat where he hit a HR.



What's the harm in keeping Baty on the MLB roster? Because he's a liability. The more he plays, the more he hurts the Mets. Already this season, his bWAR is in negative territory (-0.2). We're still in April. He's never had a positive bWAR in the four years he's been in the majors. That's the harm. He's killing the Mets. The Mets are winning in spite of Brett Baty.



_____________



* The Peter Principle is the concept that in hierarchical organizations, employees are often promoted to positions beyond their capabilities, eventually reaching a level where they are no longer competent. This happens because people are often promoted for their performance in their current role, rather than their suitability for a higher role.

[Lefty Specialist]

It's pretty simple. When McNeil gets back, there won't be any at-bats for Baty. Won't be many for Acuna either, but he's more positionally flexible, a better defender and much faster. The only reason Baty's been getting the at-bats he's getting is because of Jeff's injury.

[roger_that]

Like I said, Lefty, you're probably right, in that the Mets will probably send Baty down to AAA (or up to Syracuse) when McNeil returns--I just don't think that's their best move, and not only because I have more faith than others in Baty's innate ability but also because I think the roster's skewed with only one backup infielder.



As to the long run, we must consider the possibility that McNeil's on the downside of his career, maybe closer to the end of the road than we like to think. Personally, I think he's still a decent player--maybe not a contender for the BA championship any more, but a versatile role-player and a hustler that every championship club needs. But he's 33, and a .257 batter the last two seasons, and the odds favor his batting ability going down rather than up from here on in.

[Cowtipper]

I don't think McNeil or Baty are worth having around anymore.



Baty is the type of guy who could get a decent reliever—though coincidentally for the first time in a million years they don't really need one at this exact moment. Many Mets prospects haven't flourished until after they left NY and I have a hunch he'll be one of them.



McNeil is 33, on a quick descent downwards, post-prime, with time left on his contract, so he's more of a dog than Baty is all things considered. What can they get for him? What can the Mets snooker another team into giving up?



What to do?



The Mets have a carousel of top prospects. If they're willing to gamble with a .215 Baty or a likely .230-.240 McNeil, why not ditch both and keep trying new prospects until one actually fits? Inevitably at least one will.

[roger_that]

I'm sure there's considerable pressure on both Baty and McNeil to prove their productiveness immediately if not sooner for the reasons you cite.



As far as trade value goes, do you think McNeil would fetch more than Baty? I don't. A team might be willing to surrender a lefty-swinging CFer to platoon with Taylor (assuming they were otherwise set in CF) to get a shot at Baty's upside, but McNeil would only suit a team with immediate needs at one of his positions, probably 2B or 3B, and they'd have to be pretty desperate not to know that he's probably not going to be very effective. For an out-of-contention club towards the trade deadline, Baty might be a better long-term solution and would certainly bring back a better player. What does that tell you?



I think the Mets would do well to put Acuna in CF, alternating with Taylor some days, rather than trying to retrofit McNeil as a CFer (they've been playing him in CF in his rehab stint) and drop Azocar to AAA. That would fix the imbalance between infielders and outfielders and free up a spot for Baty when McNeil comes back. Two lefty 2bmen isn't ideal of course but it's workable.

[Cowtipper]

McNeil would get a token minor leaguer I imagine, but considering his cost and age, he's not worth much to another team. He'd be a salary dump at this point, I imagine.

[Lefty Specialist]

Only having one backup infielder necessitates Acuna. Baty can't play shortstop.



McNeil has an albatross contract; he's not movable unless you pay off a lot of it. Baty going back down to AAA and tearing it up will raise his value when he's moved in the offseason. Keeping him up and giving him limited at-bats is a waste all around.

[roger_that]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Only having one backup infielder necessitates Acuna. Baty can't play shortstop.

Agreed. Keep Acuna up.

Lefty Specialist wrote: McNeil has an albatross contract; he's not movable unless you pay off a lot of it.

Unless you get lucky and find a trading partner with a sudden need for a second baseman. Happens sometimes--second basemen tend to get injured more than other players.

Lefty Specialist wrote: Baty going back down to AAA and tearing it up will raise his value when he's moved in the offseason. Keeping him up and giving him limited at-bats is a waste all around.

Now this is interesting. You're so sure that Baty will tear up AAA pitching if we send him down? Because AAA pitching is all he can handle, and MLB pitching overwhelms him? I don't buy that. Who was he facing when he was tearing up spring training? Mostly MLB pitchers who were getting the rest of the Mets lineup out fairly well. I think there's a direct correlation between hitting at AAA and hitting at the MLB level, and that 99% of the difference, when there's one, is sample size, luck, streakiness, and luck. Also luck.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=Like I said, Lefty post_id=190293 time=1745250216 user_id=128]
I think there's a direct correlation between hitting at AAA and hitting at the MLB level, and that 99% of the difference, when there's one, is sample size, luck, streakiness, and luck. Also luck.