2022 Wild Card Playoff Roster Thoughts

[Gwreck]

1. Playoff rosters can be tweaked round-by-round. Leaving Taijuan Walker off against the Padres is a practical choice, not a judgment on whether he pitches against the Dodgers.



2. Joely Rodriguez: In 4 appearances this year against SD, he has a 37.60 ERA. 9 runs, 7 earned. Retired only 5 of 17 batters he faced. 1 K, 5 walks, 7 hits (one was a homer). I'm not so sure he's on the roster this first round.



3. Tomas Nido is going to start at catcher. This appears to have been conceded when Nido actually hit for McCann on Sunday in Atlanta. But with Alvarez around, would McCann just be left off completely?



4. In a short series, offensive flexibility will be more important than the bullpen. Of course the Mets will take Diaz, Ottavino, Lugo, Smith, May, Peterson, and a “long reliever” (Williams or Carrasco). But Megill or Givens or anyone else is likely to be superfluous here, and allow some extra bench flexibility.

[Edgy MD]

As cold as he is, I don't think McCannister is going anywhere.

[Gwreck]

Ed Hearn never appeared in a postseason game in 1986. Ramon Castro, same in 2006. Kevin Plawecki, same in 2015. Of course having a backup catcher is essential, but would they ever actually play?



Put another way, in a key situation late, would Nido hit regardless of the pitcher? Or, if using Naquin/Guillorme to hit for him, could Alvarez then be counted on to catch the balance of the game?



I do suppose the alternative to McCann is…Darrin Ruf?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think McCann will be on the roster. Maybe Walker has a better chance than Carrasco... Buck removed him pretty much as soon as the Braves/Marlins game ended, presumably so he'd be available to pitch again sooner rather than later.



Rodriguez has pitched well lately. I think he'll be there.



I'm curious about what they'll decide about Alvarez and Vientos. I'd be surprised if we see Ruf on the Wild Card roster.

[Gwreck]

I think Walker has a better chance than Carrasco to pitch in the division series. But there doesn't seem to be a situation in which Taijuan would pitch in the upcoming 3 game wild card series.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Long relief, I would guess. Maybe not in Game 1, but he could probably be ready for Game 2 or 3.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Anthony DiComo wrote: What could the postseason roster look like? The Mets' initial playoff roster will probably include some quirks, since they're only prepping for a best-of-three Wild Card Series. Here's one stab at how it could look: C: James McCann, Tomás Nido 1B: Pete Alonso 2B: Jeff McNeil, Luis Guillorme 3B: Eduardo Escobar SS: Francisco Lindor OF: Brandon Nimmo, Mark Canha, Tyler Naquin, Terrance Gore DH: Daniel Vogelbach, Mark Vientos, Francisco Álvarez SP: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt RP: Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Joely Rodríguez, Drew Smith, Mychal Givens, David Peterson, Trevor Williams Because the Mets won't need more than three starting pitchers in the Wild Card Series, it's fair to assume they'll leave both Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco off the roster altogether. Those two will instead throw bullpen sessions to stay fresh in advance of a potential NL Division Series matchup against the Dodgers, clearing space for the Mets to carry nearly every member of their regular bullpen. Tylor Megill is also an option to make the roster over anyone currently projected to hold a spot in the back half of the bullpen.

[Edgy MD]

I feel good about Walker and Carrasco making the team, and I imagine they both feel good as well. OE: DiComo, above, bumps 'em both.



Hearn and Castro and Plawecki may have not appeared in the playoffs, but J.C. Martin and Duffy Dyer and Ron Hodges, and Todd Pratt sure did. He may be a rough sight at the plate right now, but he's been catching this staff for the last two years, and that matters to pitchers even if we may not think it should.

[Gwreck]

I could see Showalter asking, very discreetly, the three pitchers going this weekend who they'd prefer to throw to and then taking that into consideration.

[smg58]

Is Alvarez even eligible?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yes, he is. He just had to be in the organization on September 1.

[Gwreck]

Also, as technical requirements for Postseason eligiblilty, (1) Alvarez has to be a “replacement” for another otherwise-eligible position player who is now injured and (2) MLB has to sign off.



For (1), he could be the “replacement” for Brett Baty. (2) is understood to be a mere formality and there's no reason to expect such approval would be withheld.

[batmagadanleadoff]

If the Mets win the opener against the Padres and then gamble on game two without Scherzer and win that game as well, the Mets could then open against the Dodgers with Scherzer and deGrom both rested up and starting the first two ganes in that order.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=110135 time=1665020831 user_id=68]
If the Mets win the opener against the Padres and then gamble on game two without Scherzer and win that game as well, the Mets could then open against the Dodgers with Scherzer and deGrom both rested up and starting the first two ganes in that order.

[bmfc1]

DiComo might be incorrect about Trevor as he pitched 6 innings yesterday so he wouldn't be able to pitch tomorrow. Ronnie said that you "only" need 11 pitchers for a 3-game series so Ruf might make the team.



Odds from Fangraphs:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips?&series=NLWCS2https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips?&series=NLWCS2

[batmagadanleadoff]

If the Mets win the opener against the Padres and then gamble on game two without Scherzer and win that game as well, the Mets could then open against the Dodgers with Scherzer and deGrom both rested up and starting the first two ganes in that order. But nothing ever goes according to plan so the Mets wont gamble and if they do gamble, having won the opener, they wont pull off the sweep.

Mets announce their starter for Game #1 against the Padres -- Max Scherzer, but still haven't announced their Game #2 starter. The Blue Jays are the only other Wild Card round playoff team not to announce their Game 2 starter.



So what gives when the obvious no-brainer decision is to start deGrom for Game #2 if Scherzer's the opener starter? Are the Mets planning on holding back deGrom if they win the opener -- hoping for a sweep and then two deGrom starts against the Dodgers, including the opener? Or are the Mets giving deGrom more rest, perhaps because of his blood blister, or some other as yet undisclosed health issue? Also, deGrom's been pitching before Scherzer in the Mets end of season rotation. So why is Scherzer pitching the opener? Because deGrom suddenly needs more rest? Or because the Mets are leaving open the gamble play which, if succesful, allows deGrom to open against the Dodgers. That series is a best of five, so it's likely, but not certain, that only the opening game starter would be able to start a second game in that series.



Questions, question, questions.



Ken Rosenthal, writing for The Athletic, opines that the Mets are overthinking the issue if they're considering holding back deGrom if they win the opener. deGrom should start Game #2 unless there's a health issue, sez Rosenthal.



Me, I dunno. If there's no health issue, the Mets could still start deGrom in Game #3 if the gamble fails. Either way, it's not likely that the Game #2 starter will get to start more than one game against the Dodgers. But if the gamble pays off, deGrom could start games one and (if necessary, game five).



https://theathletic.com/3666498/2022/10/06/mets-degrom-showalter-starters-wild-card/https://theathletic.com/3666498/2022/10/06/mets-degrom-showalter-starters-wild-card/

[Edgy MD]

Keeping the Padres unsure is one advantage. Holding off to judge whether deGrom's alleged blister is healed enough is another. Seeing what they have expended in the bullpen before making a choice might be one. Or maybe seeing how the San Diego Padres deal with one power starting pitcher before deciding on another.



All these are (a) pure speculation, and ( likely worth little more than a hair of an edge. But keeping his cards close to his chest by revealing as little as possible in advance is the edge Showalter plays for. He'd rather talk about ice cream than his next starting pitcher.

[vtmet7]

I could see Showalter asking, very discreetly, the three pitchers going this weekend who they'd prefer to throw to and then taking that into consideration.

I think that if you left it up to the pitchers:

Mad Max would choose Nido;

Bassitt would choose McCann;

deGrom would choose whoever promises to actually contribute on offense (since he never seems to get much run support, and when he's on, the catcher is not as important as his lack of run support)



speaking of offensive production from the catcher...why is it that McCann couldn't hit his way out of a wet paper bag with a sharp machete when he catches for the Mets; yet hits pretty decent in his rare starts at first base?



As a first baseman, McCann has a "career" .370 batting average with a .741 Slugging Percentage and a 1.134 OPS (3 Homeruns, 1 double, 7 RBI and 5 runs scored in 9 games as a 1B)...yes, small sample size which is why I wrote "career" instead of career.

[Ceetar]

catching is physically demanding. We often underestimate the value of simply rest, good sleep, less fatigue, etc.



Anyway. I don't love the deGrom thing. It seems like over-thinking it, and this from a manager who famously didn't use his best reliever in an elimination game.

[vtmet7]

=Ceetar post_id=110217 time=1665148035 user_id=102]
catching is physically demanding. We often underestimate the value of simply rest, good sleep, less fatigue, etc.

[Gwreck]

Joel Sherman reporting that Marte is on and Naquin is NOT. Presumably that means Starling is ready to play…

[Ceetar]

=Gwreck post_id=110227 time=1665155676 user_id=56]
Joel Sherman reporting that Marte is on and Naquin is NOT. Presumably that means Starling is ready to play…

[Gwreck]

=Ceetar post_id=110228 time=1665156373 user_id=102]#pendingphysicals



let's wait for a real reporter.

[Ceetar]

The pending physicals is a joke about how hacks like Sherman frequently get information wrong via the rush to be first with leaks, harkening back to the 2015 trade deadline when he made Wilmer Flores cry.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

If Mitch Keller of the Pirates doesn't hit Marte in the hand, I suspect we win the division.

[Ceetar]

official via Mets[attachment=0]wildcardroster.jpg[/attachment]

[DocTee]

neither Carrasco or Walker.



Nyquin behind Gore and Ruf?

[Ceetar]

Ruf is garbage, but they clearly wanted another Righty bat instead of Naquin.

[Fman99]

Marte, and Gore, meaning Marte isn't just pinch runner/window dressing decoy. So that's a plus.

[vtmet7]

=Ceetar post_id=110235 time=1665158463 user_id=102]
Ruf is garbage, but they clearly wanted another Righty bat instead of Naquin.