MLB Draft, 2021

[Ceetar]

Rocker would start tomorrow somewhere if he was on a team. He'd take the ball and pitch. MAYBE the Mets read the medicals as him being a risk (but a sure failure? that's almost never how medicals work, and it's not like the Mets docs are 100% here) but they knew he didn't submit his info AND they knew he was asking for overslot, which seems unlikely if he was worried about something showing.



But even if the Mets were all fine there, they still didn't hedge there bets with that information and have a few other draftees that they could use the (overslot) money earmarked for Rocker on perhaps a better prospect that wanted more money. i.e. some lower guy that would sign for 1.5 but not .5. If you lose that guy because Rocker signs, fine. Instead they pissed it away.

[Frayed Knot]

He'd have to be basically immobile. They've have to be convinced he had zero chance to make the majors.

No, they just may have been convinced they could do better next year. A player doesn't have to be borderline crippled before you choose to take a different path. Remember the adage from MONEYBALL, it's easier to recover from the player you fail to sign than it is to recover from the one you sign at the wrong price.







"And where did they discover this information in a scant few weeks?"



Ummm, during a physical exam.







"That just means they failed doing their research the first time."



No, if means they had the exclusive ability to check him out medically, something that was denied to them prior to draft day.

[Edgy MD]

There's no reason to think a pick a year from now is going to help the Mets MORE than having Rocker now. It makes no sense, it is dumb and yet another example of how confused this front office is.

There is no reason that you know of.



The "he'd have to be basically immobile" argument isn't really serious, is it?

[Fman99]

What a big shitty mess.

[Ceetar]

Even if we ignore the "humans as commodities" thing and pretend that "Let's just draft someone else next year" isn't extremely subjective, they still pissed away the overcap money, meaning they drafted a guy without seeing his medicals WITHOUT a plan in place should they not like them. They clearly weren't prepared NOT to sign him. Being surprised about it is no excuse, that's their job. See also: Sandy's quote about being surprised what pitching went for at the traded deadline (this year, previous years, you pick, he says the same thing every time. He's a grouchy old man complaining about prices these days, and it shows)



It's inarguable that they were unprepared.

[Gwreck]

=Ceetar post_id=73157 time=1627870371 user_id=102] they still pissed away the overcap money

[Ceetar]

There are guys out there that might sign for 1.5 million that won't sign for .5. You're trying to convince these guys NOT to go to college, not to return to college, that sort of thing. You draft a rawer player in pick 4 or 5, okay if you lose him if Rocker signs, but if not you've got this other guy that maybe you can now entice away. Most teams can't sign a 5th rounder to a million over cap or whatever, but if you're punting your first pick that you budgeted that money to, you've got that opportunity. ALL their other picks were based on the budget and expectation of their bonus requests. Budgeting that money to Rocker means they targeted other guys more likely to sign for less, or with less negotiating power.



MOST teams spent the maximum 105% of their cap money without penalty. The Mets were way under.

[LWFS]

Even if we ignore the "humans as commodities" thing and pretend that "Let's just draft someone else next year" isn't extremely subjective, they still pissed away the overcap money, meaning they drafted a guy without seeing his medicals WITHOUT a plan in place should they not like them. They clearly weren't prepared NOT to sign him. Being surprised about it is no excuse, that's their job. See also: Sandy's quote about being surprised what pitching went for at the traded deadline (this year, previous years, you pick, he says the same thing every time. He's a grouchy old man complaining about prices these days, and it shows) It's inarguable that they were unprepared.

Like when they picked Barco way late the year they picked Allan high, so as to provide a pivot option. VERY fair point.



Drafting someone with options is ALWAYS s risk. You hedge that risk-- and any risk regarding unknown information-- by picking 1-2 "no WAY" talents late (underclassmen, or SERIOUSLY committed HS seniors). Then if overslot high pick passes/proves otherwise problematic, you shove his pile of money down the line, and test your backups' commitments to school.

[Edgy MD]

What really stinks here isn't so much the Mets behavior, but the draft itself.



I'd certainly be happy to recommend different courses of action to navigate the system, but the system itself is so unjustly rigged that it feels dirty to advise teams how to best play it. The Mets don't like what they see and don't want to make an offer. That's their right. But the real tragedy is that Rocker can't just turn around offer his services to any number of other professional organizations who might feel differently.



It's academic and speculative and largely missing the point to argue about how the Mets should have hedged their bets better. Fight the real enemy.

[duan]

Edgy MD wrote: What really stinks here isn't so much the Mets behavior, but the draft itself. .... Fight the real enemy.

This.

[bmfc1]

Edgy MD wrote: What really stinks here isn't so much the Mets behavior, but the draft itself. .... Fight the real enemy. This.

Worthwhile opinion piece on an alternative that won't happen:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/corollary-damage-kumar-rocker-the-mlb-draft-and-a-better-way-forward/https://blogs.fangraphs.com/corollary-damage-kumar-rocker-the-mlb-draft-and-a-better-way-forward/

[Edgy MD]

I refuse to be pessimistic. Unjust structures fall every day.

[Methead]

Kumar Rocker to undergo Tommy John surgery later this week.

[Gwreck]

This will be the second surgery for Rocker since the 2021 draft (he also had shoulder surgery in September 2021).

[nymr83]

Thank the Mets doctors - a very often maligned group - on this on!