This Year's Jacob deGrom Deserves His Own Thread Thread

[A Boy Named Seo]

Seemed like deGrom and Bauer pulled ahead slightly, but there's Yu Darvish with 2.5 fWAR to Jake's 2.3 and Bauer's 2.1. This is gonna be close, huh.

[Edgy MD]

Yes, and in my experience, a close race is bad for the defending champ.

[smg58]

Tweet from Anthony DiComo:

[bLOCKQUOTE]Jacob deGrom says tonight's hamstring issue actually affected him in his last start in Buffalo as well, but he kept it quiet. And it was worse tonight.

When deGrom said something, the Mets took him out.

"I'm not too worried it's going to be a long-term thing," he said.[/bLOCKQUOTE]

I can't fault his desire to get out there and help the team, but sometimes you have to make discretion the better part of valor.

[batmagadanleadoff]

So I went through my bummed out moment last night, as the dream of deGrom winning his third straight Cy seemed to die after the Rays game. Sigh. I thought he was still in the race going into last night's game, but no longer among the real frontrunners after his next to last disastrous outing where he gave up three runs and had to leave after two innings because of a hamstring issue.



deGrom was excellent last night. I'll take two runs allowed over seven innings with 14 K's and consistently hitting 100MPH on the gun every time out. But I thought deGrom needed to be even better than that to make a move on the Cy, plus needing for some of the frontrunners to get roughed up some in their final starts for deGrom to make up lost ground.



But this morning, I checked fangraphs and deGrom's leading the NL in xFIP, and he's second in fWAR to Darvish, 2.7 to 2.6 -- and that one tenth that separates Jake from the top fWAR spot is statistically insignificant, especially where fWAR is a theoretical statistic anyways. So who the hell knows? It looks like deGrom's chances are better than I thought last night, right after the end of the Mets game.



https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=nl&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=20,dhttps://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit≶=nl&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=20,d

[bmfc1]

From Jeff Passan today

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29940841/passan-final-week-mlb-never-seen-beforehttps://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29940841/passan-final-week-mlb-never-seen-before



Who should win the NL Cy Young?



Player A: 69 IP, 7-3, 2.22 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 11.48 K/9, 1.70 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9, 2.7 fWAR, 2.3 rWAR



Player B: 65 IP, 4-4, 1.80 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 12.18 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9, 2.2 fWAR, 2.5 rWAR



Player C: 55 IP, 7-0, 1.96 ERA , 2.62 FIP, 8.18 K/9, 3.11 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, 1.9 fWAR, 3.1 rWAR



Player D: 63 IP, 4-2, 2.14 ERA, 1.99 FIP, 13.43 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, 2.7 fWAR, 2.4 rWAR



Player E: 56 IP, 4-0, 1.77 ERA, 1.79 FIP, 13.34 K/9, 3.54 BB/9, 0.16 HR/9, 2.6 fWAR, 2.1 rWAR



Player F: 65.1, 3-1, 2.07 ERA, 2.51 FIP, 12.26 K/9, 2.62 BB/9, 0.69 HR/9, 2.3 fWAR, 2.3 rWAR



This is a lot to digest. Player A is Chicago's Yu Darvish, Player B Trevor Bauer, Player C Max Fried, Player D New York's Jacob deGrom, Player E Corbin Burnes and Player F San Diego's Dinelson Lamet.

[Frayed Knot]

Just as most CY / MVP / ROY contests boil down to September, this final week is essentially the September of this year so the final one or two starts for those guys will likely play a big part in deciding things.

[bmfc1]

Marc Carig adds in the East v Central v West factor. Turns out that the East has the toughest hitters (so that's good for Jake):

https://twitter.com/MarcCarig/status/1308412194942586880https://twitter.com/MarcCarig/status/1308412194942586880

Bauer has 2 more starts (the only "candidate" that does) so he has an extra chance to impress the voters.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I really think they should have decided to award three MVP, CY, and ROY awards this year, one for East, one for Central, and one for West. Everything else is off-kilter this season. This would be the least crazy thing on the list.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Frayed Knot wrote: Just as most CY / MVP / ROY contests boil down to September, this final week is essentially the September of this year so the final one or two starts for those guys will likely play a big part in deciding things.

Sure. But in a 162 game season, there'd be more separation between the pitchers. This year, there's at least a half dozen pitchers that have a realistic shot at the NL Cy Young. Some of those have better chances than others, but they all have a plausible shot.

[bmfc1]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I really think they should have decided to award three MVP, CY, and ROY awards this year, one for East, one for Central, and one for West. Everything else is off-kilter this season. This would be the least crazy thing on the list.

This is a good idea as it's like there were 3 separate leagues this year.

[Frayed Knot]

Frayed Knot wrote: Just as most CY / MVP / ROY contests boil down to September, this final week is essentially the September of this year so the final one or two starts for those guys will likely play a big part in deciding things. Sure. But in a 162 game season, there'd be more separation between the pitchers. This year, there's at least a half dozen pitchers that have a realistic shot at the NL Cy Young. Some of those have better chances than others, but they all have a plausible shot.

Well that's pretty much my point, that this upcoming/on-going week and the final one or two starts from each will have an over-sized influence on these awards.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Trevor Bauer making it hard on Jake's Cy#3 campaign: 4IP -- O runs on one hit allowed, no walks, 5 K's so far tonight.

[nymr83]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=47294 time=1600904996 user_id=68]
Trevor Bauer making it hard on Jake's Cy#3 campaign: 4IP -- O runs on one hit allowed, no walks, 5 K's so far tonight.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=nymr83 post_id=47306 time=1600907596 user_id=54]
=batmagadanleadoff post_id=47294 time=1600904996 user_id=68]
Trevor Bauer making it hard on Jake's Cy#3 campaign: 4IP -- O runs on one hit allowed, no walks, 5 K's so far tonight.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=47310 time=1600910904 user_id=68]
=nymr83 post_id=47306 time=1600907596 user_id=54]
=batmagadanleadoff post_id=47294 time=1600904996 user_id=68]
Trevor Bauer making it hard on Jake's Cy#3 campaign: 4IP -- O runs on one hit allowed, no walks, 5 K's so far tonight.

[nymr83]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=47311 time=1600911263 user_id=68]
=batmagadanleadoff post_id=47310 time=1600910904 user_id=68]
=nymr83 post_id=47306 time=1600907596 user_id=54]
=batmagadanleadoff post_id=47294 time=1600904996 user_id=68]
Trevor Bauer making it hard on Jake's Cy#3 campaign: 4IP -- O runs on one hit allowed, no walks, 5 K's so far tonight.

[batmagadanleadoff]

fWAR

1. Darvish 2.7

2. deGrom 2.6

3. Burnes 2.6

4. Bauer 2.5

5. Lamet 2.3

6. Castillo 2.2





xFIP (FAngraphs)

1. deGrom 2.43

2. Darvish 2.68

3. Nola 2.75

4. Castillo 2.83

5. Burnes 2.90

6. Bauer 3.22



FIP (bRef)

1. Burnes 1.79

2. deGrom 1.99

3. Darvish 2.23

4. Lamet 2.51

5. Castillo 2.73

6. Bauer 2.87



bWAR

1. Fried 2.9

2. Wheeler 2.9

3. Bauer 2.8

4. Senzatela 2.7

5. Freeland 2.6

6. deGrom 2.5



ERA

1. Bauer 1.73

2. Burnes 1.77

3. Lamet 2.07

4. deGrom 2.14

5. Darvish 2.22

6. Fried 2.25



WHIP

1. Bauer 0.795

2. Lamet 0.872

3. deGrom 0.921

4. Burnes 0.946

5. Hendricks 0.996

6. Darvish 1.000



K/9

1. deGrom 13.429

2. Burnes 13.339

3. Scherzer 12.473

4. Bauer 12.329

5. Lamet 12.260

6. Nola 11.970



K's

1. Bauer 100

2. deGrom 94

3. Nola 90

4. Lamet 89

5. Darvish 88

6. Scherzer 85

6. Castillo 85



ADJUSTED ERA+

1. Bauer 277

2. Burnes 258

3. Fried 213

4. Lamet 207

5. Darvish 201

6. deGrom 198

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

deGrom's not gonna win another close race with this club behind him. I know some of you like this race but I hate following the individual awards because you gotta hope the other guys screw up

[Edgy MD]

Well, if nothing else, the Mets should get a taste of all the major awards voting — in some cases more than one player. Conforto and Smitty should see some MVP love, and Peterson and Gimenez should drink from the Rookie of the Year well. Some rebel might throw some points to Guillorme too, but unfortunately, they historically only give RoY voters three votes.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: deGrom's not gonna win another close race with this club behind him. I know some of you like this race but I hate following the individual awards because you gotta hope the other guys screw up

I'm no longer sure what the club has to do with this. Pitcher Wins, thankfully, are pretty much meaningless by now, in Cy voting Otherwise, there's no way deGrom would've won any of his other Cys. Unless you mean defense?



Though, granted, deGrom's no longer in the driver's seat. I'm guessing that ERA is the most weighted stat and deGrom probably has to pitch something like 11 innings of no-hit ball in his final start to win the 2020 Cy.



But we'll see.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Jayson Stark, who will be voting on the end of the season NL awards, reveals his ballots for The Athletic.



https://theathletic.com/2090616/2020/09/25/stark-handing-out-my-2020-awards-from-cy-young-to-cy-yuk-mvp-to-lvp/https://theathletic.com/2090616/2020/09/25/stark-handing-out-my-2020-awards-from-cy-young-to-cy-yuk-mvp-to-lvp/



Stark would give Trevor Bauer his first place vote for this year's Cy Young award but concedes that the category is somewhat muddled and that deGrom could still overtake Bauer on his ballot -- but that deGrom would have to have a spectacular final outing.



In the made-up category of LVP or Least Valuable Player, Stark gives the NL award to Yoenis Cespedes. And in the other category Stark makes up, --The Cy Yuk award,-- Steven Matz gets Stark's third place vote.

[G-Fafif]

Jacob named a finalist for NL Cy Young, much as Meryl Streep inevitably gains an Oscar nomination.