Happy Bobby Bonilla Day!

[Centerfield]

Bobby Bonilla Day gets the fivethirtyeight treatment - with a video! Here's something to consider -- the Mets deferred the money owed Bonilla after the 1999 season to hold onto the $5.9M at stake and re-invest it in the team. The Mets then signed one of MLB's best and most sought after pitchers, Mike Hampton, who led the Mets to the 2000 World Series. When Hampton left via free agency, the Mets used their compensation draft pick for Hampton's deparure to select David Wright. So how bad did the Mets really do here? The Bobby Bonilla Retirement Plan: Quit Baseball In 2001, Get Paid Until 2035 Bobby Bonilla hasn't played in a professional baseball game since 2001, yet on July 1 of this year, the New York Mets paid him $1.19 million. And they will every July 1 until 2035, as part of a deferred contract that the Mets negotiated with Bonilla after the 1999 season. Instead of paying him $5.9 million that year, the Mets would owe Bonilla almost $30 million over the course of the deferred contract. How'd that happen? Watch the video [linked below] to find out. https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/the-bobby-bonilla-retirement-plan-quit-baseball-in-2001-get-paid-until-2035/https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/the-bobby-bonilla-retirement-plan-quit-baseball-in-2001-get-paid-until-2035/

This Hampton/Wright justification has been making its rounds the last few years. Unfortunately it can't be true. The deferred money was invested in the Madoff fund. Investing the money is the only way to justify the terms of the payout. If the money was invested, it couldn't have been used to pay Hampton.



Hampton (and Wright) is a wholly unrelated transaction. “Down the line” justifications are usually a stretch to begin with. This one is unique in that it starts with a premise that is impossible.

[Centerfield]

Also. I've written this before, but the Bonilla deal deserves all its criticism. Here's why.



1. It starts with trading for an expensive middle reliever. Mel Rojas. Relief pitchers are notoriously unreliable. And Rojas was terrible.



2. In 1999, Rojas had one year, $4.5M left on his contract. Seeking to salary dump, the Mets traded for an even worse contract. Washed up Bonilla and his 2 year contract, $5.9M each year.



3. Bonilla was terrible. And so after paying him $5.9 in 1999, he was owed $5.9 in 2000. Enter the payout. The Wilpons thought this deal made sense because they would save money in the long run because of Madoff. This separates the Bonilla deferrals from, say Max Scherzer. With Scherzer, you agree to pay the piper later in order to sign an elite player now. Bonilla wasn't about that. He wasn't a star. He wasn't going to bring short term gain. In fact, he was released. The whole payout was “this deal may look bad on its face, but silly you, I know a guy”.



4. That guy was Madoff. And the present value calculations used to measure whether it was a good deal or not all go out the window when you lose all your money in a Ponzi scheme.



And so that's why it deserves ridicule. Trading for an expensive middle reliever, then turning a $4.5M debt into $5.9M in 1999, and 30M over 25 years. Genius.

[Ceetar]

but that's all wrong, and they DID invest with Madoff, and DID get 10+% returns for another decade.



But this has all been rehashed and debunked and it's nothing, and also it's literally what like every team does. The story here is that media and bloggers and forumites drag it up every year like it's a #LOLMets gotcha when it's not, it's just MLB teams business as usual, and the Mets are 1 of many and not special, in either direction.

[Centerfield]

I'll ignore your silly statement that my post is all wrong and just focus on the returns.



If I invest $6M for a decade and make 10% returns each year, but then lose my principal because it's a Ponzi scheme, then I haven't made 10% returns. I've given the fund an interest free loan for 10 years.



If I lose my returns (or any portion thereof) in a clawback lawsuit, I've now lost even more money.



Please stop trying to tell me it's regular practice for teams to follow the path of incompetence that I just laid out.

[Ceetar]

it is and you're wrong and I don't care to argue points with you that were resolved and over-analyzed decades ago. you're wrong, it's been beat to death and a teensy little line item on a budget somewhere, maybe not even the Mets budget is not even worth mentioning once never mind regularly, all day, every year and the only reason I haven't muted this thread is because i'm depressed and board and mindlessly distracting my brain.



If I borrow $5 from you to play poker, promising you $10 in the future, and then win $20 it's not particularly interesting that I lost it all in the slot machine, except maybe I didn't lose after all, I just said the slot machine took my money because the poker game was rigged and someone thinks I should repay the money I won there to the players that lost.

[whippoorwill]

I'm finding the Bobby Valentine story more interesting than Bobby Bonilla

[whippoorwill]

I can take it darker if you like. what do you think the odds are that the Wilpons/media count Bonilla's contract as part of the "bleeding money!" cries about how much they're losing a year?

They should.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Neither here not there but Bonilla could have been a very valuable piece to that '99 team, a veteran switch-hitter with power who could fake it at third, first or the corners, all good teams want one of those. It's just that Bonilla wasn't ready for that role.



If he only was as good as he was the following year with Atlanta, which wasn't great but okay, it might have worked out well.



The LOLMETS thing is more Bonilla-related than wasted-money related than anything: He was a guy they overpaid not once but twice and now in perpetuity; missed expectations to a large degree both times; as sure as hell wasn't Darryl Strawberry; and closely involved in the narrative of a near-great team that fell just short of its goals.

[Frayed Knot]

=Ceetar post_id=39809 time=1593778462 user_id=102]
but that's all wrong, and they DID invest with Madoff, and DID get 10+% returns for another decade.

[ashie62]

Bobby Bonilla/agent made a great deal. God bless him