Zack’s Qualifying Answer

[G-Fafif]

“No.”



Wheeler rejects Mets' QO. Brodie says they'll keep talking to him in free agent mode.

[kcmets]

Our old friend and colleague on Rotoworld:

[bLOCKQUOTE]Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports that the Yankees have "checked in" on free agent hurler Zack Wheeler.

It's not a secret that the Yankees are in the market for major upgrades to their starting rotation this offseason, as they have already been linked to Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg among others. The most likely scenario, is that the Yankees wind up with a couple of starting pitchers.

SOURCE: Bryan Hoch on Twitter

Nov 13, 2019, 8:10 PM ET[/bLOCKQUOTE]

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Wheels is going to get dirty stinking rich this winter. I'd really like him back

[batmagadanleadoff]

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Wheels is going to get dirty stinking rich this winter. I'd really like him back

Incredible, but true. What's even more incredible is that Wheeler wasn't even one of the NL's top 20 pitchers this past season. Must be a dearth of FA pitchers. Jon Matlack is rolling over in his grave even though he's still alive.

[LWFS]

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Wheels is going to get dirty stinking rich this winter. I'd really like him back Incredible, but true. What's even more incredible is that Wheeler wasn't even one of the NL's top 20 pitchers this past season. Must be a dearth of FA pitchers. Jon Matlack is rolling over in his grave even though he's still alive.

Even more incredible: he actually WAS one of the Major Leagues' top 20 pitchers by ERA+, FIP, and fWAR (and top-20 in the NL by bWAR both years). By most measures, actually. Over the last two years, actually? He's pushing for https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=top 10. He's second to deGrom in the majors in suppressing HR rate over that time.



Zack Wheeler is, like, good. He's just been playing for a team that minimizes how good he looks to people who don't know what to look for.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Wheels is going to get dirty stinking rich this winter. I'd really like him back Incredible, but true. What's even more incredible is that Wheeler wasn't even one of the NL's top 20 pitchers this past season. Must be a dearth of FA pitchers. Jon Matlack is rolling over in his grave even though he's still alive. Even more incredible: he actually WAS one of the Major Leagues' top 20 pitchers by ERA+, FIP, and fWAR (and top-20 in the NL by bWAR both years). By most measures, actually. Over the last two years, actually? He's pushing for https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=top 10. He's second to deGrom in the majors in suppressing HR rate over that time. Zack Wheeler is, like, good. He's just been playing for a team that minimizes how good he looks to people who don't know what to look for.

Lazy me. Here's what I did. I linked to BBRef's 2019 NL pitching leaders page (https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2019-pitching-leaders.shtmlhttps://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2019-pitching-leaders.shtml) and expanded all the leaderboards, giving me a top 10 list of all the pitching categories. Then I pulled up Wheeler's 2019 stats on a separate tab and skimmed a couple of the key top 10 categories -- (ERA+, WHIP and WAR) Wheeler didn't make the top 10 in any of those, and eyeballing his season stats, I "figgered" that he wouldn't crack the top 20 either. Jeez, his 2019 ERA+ is 102. It's lazy because creating that Fangraphs list that you referenced is easier and way more accurate. I still stand on Jon Matlack rolling over in his grave, though. How much money would Matlack's third full season be worth today on the open FA market -- the sublime Cy Young caliber '74 campaign?

Zack Wheeler is, like, good. He's just been playing for a team that minimizes how good he looks to people who don't know what to look for.

Ouch.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

There's lots of guys who would compare unfavorably to peak Matlack. Most similar by age rating at 24 was Tommy John, bunch of other era contempoaries and one Dan Casey:



http://www.springer66.net/2018/07/22/the-mighty-casey/http://www.springer66.net/2018/07/22/the-mighty-casey/

[G-Fafif]

Last six starts this year produced a 1.80 ERA, 6.2 IP per start and about a strikeout per inning. Over the final three, picked up some of whatever it is that plagues deGrom when it comes to his teammates supporting him, each time producing an outing that was deep, sharp and a loss.



Watching Hot Stove on SNY last night the consensus was Zack is gone and the Mets will seek moderately priced dregs to take his place.

[smg58]

Wheeler was 28th in the NL in ERA+. The guy who was #1 is a free agent, too. And that's before we even get to Cole and Strasburg. Take the draft pick and upgrade.

[LWFS]

Zack Wheeler is, like, good. He's just been playing for a team that minimizes how good he looks to people who don't know what to look for. Ouch.

Didn't mean that to come off quite so bitchy.



Peak Matlack was damn fine pitcherin'.

Wheeler was 28th in the NL in ERA+. The guy who was #1 is a free agent, too. And that's before we even get to Cole and Strasburg. Take the draft pick and upgrade.

ERA+ ain't exactly defense-independent. And Wheeler is "tops" (actual #1) in how poorly he was served by the team's defense among 2019 NL starters (worse than Jake or any of the other Mets, too), as measured by RA9def.



It ain't as big an upgrade pool as you think.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, an upgrade won't be easy (or cheap) and compensation draft picks ain't what they used to be.

[Edgy MD]

Sometimes, when you looze a guy, the instinct is to replace him at the least, or you break your brain and your bank trying to upgrade. And that's one option. But if it's easier to plug the hole as best you can and try to improve somewheres else, that's a-valid too. Sometimes when you get into replacement mode, you go backing up the truck for Kevin Appier.

[LWFS]

Post-peak Kevin Appier warn't too piqued, either. Now, what we got for 'im... well, I'm glad our team helped in its own, indirect way in funding affordable housing.



If we're not signing Wheeler, and we're not in for-REAL-for-real on Cole/Strassy, the best way to improve that fifth starting slot this offseason might just be to trade Dom Smith for Manny Margot and sign Grandal.

[Ceetar]

Ryu's a guy to keep an eye on.

It's not a one-one replacement from 2018-2019 anyway. Thor could be better, or worse. Matz too. I mean, we do already have Stroman over Vargas.

[Edgy MD]

=LWFS post_id=26638 time=1573865397 user_id=84]
Post-peak Kevin Appier warn't too piqued, either. Now, what we got for 'im... well, I'm glad our team helped in its own, indirect way in funding affordable housing.



If we're not signing Wheeler, and we're not in for-REAL-for-real on Cole/Strassy, the best way to improve that fifth starting slot this offseason might just be to trade Dom Smith for Manny Margot and sign Grandal.

[Fman99]

Edgy MD wrote: Kevin Appier.

You watch your god damned mouth.

[Centerfield]

=G-Fafif post_id=26593 time=1573821863 user_id=55]
Last six starts this year produced a 1.80 ERA, 6.2 IP per start and about a strikeout per inning. Over the final three, picked up some of whatever it is that plagues deGrom when it comes to his teammates supporting him, each time producing an outing that was deep, sharp and a loss.



Watching Hot Stove on SNY last night the consensus was Zack is gone and the Mets will seek moderately priced dregs to take his place.

[G-Fafif]

Michael Baumann of the Ringer not high on Zack:

It might be a little harsh to compare Wheeler—like [Darren] Dreifort a former top-10 pick who was hurt or bad or both for much of his mid-20s—to the doomed Dodger right-hander. Since returning to the majors in 2017, Wheeler has posted good peripherals and been fairly reliable, making at least 29 starts in each of the past two seasons. But he's also posted a worse ERA+ in that time than any of the seven pitchers listed above him here. Wheeler also has a mild case of James Paxton's Disease, in which people confuse lack of a big league track record for youth, when Wheeler is less than a year younger than Odorizzi or Bumgarner, and doesn't have anything like Paxton's peak performance.

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/11/11/20958388/mlb-free-agency-rankings-tiers-primer-gerrit-cole-anthony-rendon-stephen-strasburghttps://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/11/11/20958388/mlb-free-agency-rankings-tiers-primer-gerrit-cole-anthony-rendon-stephen-strasburg

[smg58]

=Centerfield post_id=26669 time=1573927902 user_id=65]Disappointed how resigned everyone is to just accept this.



Another season of mediocrity. Yay.

[Edgy MD]

I think he's a worthy buy at about four years, $60 million, and he's about to get four years, $90 million.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

I've seen Wheeler pitch a lot and can confirm he's very good and will make the team he signs with better, including the 2020 Mets

[Centerfield]

I'm with Lunchie. I think Wheeler's pretty good. And still has a lot of upside.



The good thing about the starting pitching market is that there are plenty of options out there for anyone willing to spend. If any one pitcher gets "overpaid", there are plenty of other options. If all the options get "overpaid", then no one is overpaid.



But I don't see that happening. If last season is any indication, the big guys will probably sign late, and then there will be bargains available as we approach spring training. Strassburg and Cole probably sign in January. Then Wheeler and Bumgarner. Then guys like Ryu and Keuchel as we approach spring training.



I'm guessing the Mets won't make a serious run at any of these guys. But who knows. I honestly have no idea what they are going to do this offseason.

[LWFS]

Honestly, I would wager, like, a finger or two BVW spending most of his browsing time in the Wacha/Nova/Smyly aisle of the store.