Tracking the ERA

[Frayed Knot]

So the one thing we knew going into this season — Hell, the one thing everyone in baseball knew going into the season — was that the Mets were going to have one of the top pitching staffs this year.

So naturally, three weeks into the year, they sit DFL in all the NL (includes games thru Saturday 4/20). They are, however, ahead of both Boston & Baltimore … so, y'know, there's that.



And not only is it the worst in the NL in 2019 but it's worse than any full season in NYM history … by a lot! Their 5.61 is more than a half run in back of the 1962 team's 5.04

That year, along with 2017, were the only seasons in team history where they posted an ERA north of 5.00

And to top it off, the defense hasn't given the staff much help as the RA/9 mark of 6.35 is also currently the worst in the league and the franchise's worst ever (1962 = 5.89)



Now you figure it can't possibly continue to be THIS bad (it can't, can it?!?), so what I'm going to attempt to do here is measure the staff's progress (or lack thereof) in roughly

20 game intervals throughout the season and see where that takes us. Hopefully I'll remember to keep up with it as the season goes on. Feel free to remind me if I don't.

So here's the opening installment (again, this does not include Sunday's game where additional ERs and UERs were allowed).

	ERA		Lg Avg		Diff		ERA+		RA/9		NL Rank		Starter ERA		Rel-ERA
	5.61		4.28		-1.33		72		6.35		15th		5.56		5.91

Edited April 21, 2019 by Guest

[MFS62]

Frayed Knot wrote: And not only is it the worst in the NL in 2019, but it's worse than any full season in NYM history … by a lot! Their 5.61 is more than half a run in back of the 1962 team's 5.04

There are some records I hoped would never be broken.

That was one of them.

I fear this thread is going to be a chilling read all year.



Later

[Edgy MD]

Nah. These things change regularly. Gravitation to the mean, if nothing else.

[Frayed Knot]

=MFS62 post_id=7867 time=1555939624 user_id=60]
I fear this thread is going to be a chilling read all year.

[MFS62]

I was hoping for the reverse jinx. Look at what they've done since I posted that.

Its working.

Later

[Chad ochoseis]

Two days later, down to 5.12.

[Edgy MD]

And they move up to 14th in the National League, ahead of Milwaukee's 5.37.

[MFS62]

See. I told ya'.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, I'm, like, no.

[nymr83]

=MFS62 post_id=8045 time=1556071843 user_id=60]
I was hoping for the reverse jinx. Look at what they've done since I posted that.

Its working.

Later

[smg58]

I always try to wait until Memorial Day to assess how a player or the team is doing. I never succeed, but I always try.



I have confidence in our starters righting the ship. The pen is more dicey, but even they have been pitching better.

[Frayed Knot]

So THIS is a bit more like it.







As promised (or at least as hinted at), here is the pitching staff breakdown after 40 games and compared to how it was 20 games ago.

			ERA		Lg AVG		Diff		ERA+		RA/G		NL Rank		Starter ERA		Rel ERA		BAA-A
	Thru 20 Games		5.61		4.28		-1.33		72		6.35		15th		5.56		5.91		.280
	Games 21-40		3.27		——		——		——		3.50		——		——		——		.215
	Thru 40 Games		4.42		4.56		+0.14		88		4.93		10th		4.29		4.75		.248

As you can see, the staff is no longer DFL in the NL in ERA but rather has rocketed up to 10th in the league and is actually above average by a shade, although the home park factor

and the distribution of runs allowed across the league means that their ERA+ figure is still below par.

But check out both the ERA and BA-against numbers particularly for the games since game #20

The only thing I'm missing here is how the starters and relievers ERA breaks out but that's because the BB-Ref page isn't working right now and I'm tired of waiting for it, so I'll fill

it in at some later date.



=#4040FF]on edit: starter/reliever stats now filled in, both are much improved

2019 season ERA of 4.42 now projects to the 5th worst season ever: behind 1962; 2017; 2003; 2009

[Frayed Knot]

So the trend continues to climb following the only sustained "good" period of games 21 thru 40

Not surprisingly, most of the recent carnage is on the pen while the starters continue their (meh) pace.

			ERA		Lg AVG		Diff		ERA+		RA/G		NL Rank		Starter ERA		Rel ERA		BAA-A
	Thru 20 Games		5.61		4.28		-1.33		72		6.35		15th		5.56		5.91		.280
	Games 21-40		3.27		——		——		——		3.50		——		——		——		.215
	Thru 40 Games		4.42		4.31		-0.11		88		4.93		10th		4.29		4.75		.248
	Games 41-60		5.17		——		——		——		5.15		——		——		——		.283
	Thru 60 Games		4.66		4.34		-0.32		86		5.00		12th		4.40		5.19		.260
	Games 61-80		5.04		——		——		——		5.25		——		——		——		.255
	Thru 80 Games		4.75		4.38		-0.37		86		5.13		13th		4.40		5.44		.259

oe: it seems that I accidentally put today's post over the top of the one from June 5th so, despite the date shown, this post was made on June 26th and the original 6/5/19 one erased.

[Frayed Knot]

A quick look at the pitching staff now that we're 100 games into the season.



The bad news is that the staff everyone knew was going to be among the league's best this year currently sits at 12th best in the NL for RA/G

The good news is that they kept their ERA well under 5.00 during this recent set of 20 games which made it the best stretch since games 21-40

All of which makes that whopping total of Four Runs scored during those three games/34 innings of the San Fran series all the more frustrating.

Win just two of those extra inning games where the RA were 3, 1, & 3 and we'd be looking at a 10-5 July w/seven games to go rather than 8-7

This team has only had one winning month and that was a 2-1 March, or 15-14 in March/April if you want to combine the two.

			ERA		Lg AVG		Diff		ERA+		RA/G		NL Rank		Starter ERA		Rel ERA		BAA-A
	Thru 20 Games		5.61		4.28		-1.33		72		6.35		15th		5.56		5.91		.280
	Games 21-40		3.27		——		——		——		3.50		——		——		——		.215
	Thru 40 Games		4.42		4.31		-0.11		88		4.93		10th		4.29		4.75		.248
	Games 41-60		5.17		——		——		——		5.15		——		——		——		.283
	Thru 60 Games		4.66		4.34		-0.32		86		5.00		12th		4.40		5.19		.260
	Games 61-80		5.04		——		——		——		5.25		——		——		——		.255
	Thru 80 Games		4.75		4.38		-0.37		86		5.13		13th		4.40		5.44		.259
	Games 81-100		4.30		——		——		——		4.50		——		——		——		.247
	Thru 100 Games		4.66		4.40		-0.26		89		4.97		12th		4.28		5.28		.256

[Frayed Knot]

For the first time all year, and right in the midst of our best stretch of the season, I missed one of my multiples of 20-game cutoffs for the tracking of these stats.

Oh well, only four games late so you're just going to have to pretend that this past segment is the same length as the others. Not perfect, but still reasonable.



And look how much the staff as a whole has jumped recently! Now actually slightly better than a league average ERA (and considering where they started ...)

and up to 7th best in the NL instead of the bottom few as they've been all year. Only the second set of 20 games was comparable to the recent stretch while the

others weren't even in the same area code. The pen is still lagging behind but at least some of that was runs allowed in blowouts which, while making things

uncomfortable, didn't outright blow games.

			ERA		Lg AVG		Diff		ERA+		RA/G		NL Rank		Starter ERA		Rel ERA		BAA-A
	Thru 20 Games		5.61		4.28		-1.33		72		6.35		15th		5.56		5.91		.280
	Games 21-40		3.27		——		——		——		3.50		——		——		——		.215
	Thru 40 Games		4.42		4.31		-0.11		88		4.93		10th		4.29		4.75		.248
	Games 41-60		5.17		——		——		——		5.15		——		——		——		.283
	Thru 60 Games		4.66		4.34		-0.32		86		5.00		12th		4.40		5.19		.260
	Games 61-80		5.04		——		——		——		5.25		——		——		——		.255
	Thru 80 Games		4.75		4.38		-0.37		86		5.13		13th		4.40		5.44		.259
	Games 81-100		4.30		——		——		——		4.50		——		——		——		.247
	Thru 100 Games		4.66		4.40		-0.26		89		4.97		12th		4.28		5.28		.256
	Games 101-124		3.47		——		——		——		3.79		——		——		——		.244
	Thru 124 Games		4.40		4.45		+0.05		95		4.73		7th		3.98		5.21		.254

[Chad ochoseis]

Frayed Knot wrote: The pen is still lagging behind but at least some of that was runs allowed in blowouts which, while making things uncomfortable, didn't outright blow games.

True for all teams, I think.



How bad is the Mets bullpen, really? I'm too lazy to do the research, but bad bullpens seem to be all the rage in 2019. The Nats have one. The Phillies have one. All the cool kids this year have middle relievers with 5ish ERAs and closers who do little. Is the Mets bullpen that much worse than the league's?

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, as of now I'm just comparing them to league averages. Too much work to have to look up the Starter/bullpen splits for all 15 NL teams.

Maybe I'll look at that once the season is over, although, even then, ERA isn't the greatest way to judge a pen.

[Frayed Knot]

With 20 games remaining, the stats have pretty much stabilized themselves at right around the league average.

			ERA		Lg AVG		Diff		ERA+		RA/G		NL Rank		Starter ERA		Rel ERA		BAA-A
	Thru 20 Games		5.61		4.28		-1.33		72		6.35		15th		5.56		5.91		.280
	Games 21-40		3.27		——		——		——		3.50		——		——		——		.215
	Thru 40 Games		4.42		4.31		-0.11		88		4.93		10th		4.29		4.75		.248
	Games 41-60		5.17		——		——		——		5.15		——		——		——		.283
	Thru 60 Games		4.66		4.34		-0.32		86		5.00		12th		4.40		5.19		.260
	Games 61-80		5.04		——		——		——		5.25		——		——		——		.255
	Thru 80 Games		4.75		4.38		-0.37		86		5.13		13th		4.40		5.44		.259
	Games 81-100		4.30		——		——		——		4.50		——		——		——		.247
	Thru 100 Games		4.66		4.40		-0.26		89		4.97		12th		4.28		5.28		.256
	Games 101-124		3.47		——		——		——		3.79		——		——		——		.244
	Thru 124 Games		4.40		4.45		+0.05		95		4.73		7th		3.98		5.21		.254
	Games 125-142		4.41		——		——		——		4.35		——		——		——		.244
	Thru 142 Games		4.42		4.43		+0.01		93		4.73		8th		3.99		5.22		.254

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Just looking this over reminds me how the Mickey Era Mets are seemingly the most unprepared team in the league, simply not ready to compete till its too late

[seawolf17]

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Just looking this over reminds me how the Mickey Era Mets are seemingly the most unprepared team in the league, simply not ready to compete till its too late

Which is endlessly weird to me, because the guy was an allegedly brilliantly successful pitching coach. I thought this staff would be world-beaters.

[Frayed Knot]

Of course you can coach 'em all you want, but they still have to play.



I'm not sure if 'unprepared' is the right conclusion from this particular project - unless it's just a way of saying that they started their run basically after it was TLTL.

The whole point here was that the staff, which everyone in creation KNEW was going to be top-notch, started out so poorly that I thought it would be worth tracking

just to see how quickly it would start moving up the ladder. Which it did, just not as quickly or as thoroughly as I ultimately thought or hoped.

Obviously the final autopsy of this year's club is going to point much of the blame on the pen, and specifically on the two guys they expected to anchor it. Familia

and Diaz haven't merely been worse than expected, they've been a giant leap below wherever anyone's 'worst case scenario' would have placed them. And then

the bigger problem still is that neither one has gotten any better as the year has gone on, not consistently so anyway.