Sandy Extendo

[Edgy MD]

The Mets have announced Sandy Alderson has gotten an extension.

It's curious that this has been finalized this deep into the winter, and I'm curious to see if this changes the course at all.

[Edgy MD]

Officially, terms have not been announced.

That's not particularly surprising, as far as salary goes, but they also haven't released, even by leak, any indication of the duration, leading to speculation that Alderson is going year-to-year, perhaps by choice, perhaps not.

"Unfinished business" is the term he used. Maybe he hoped to walk away after this season, but just couldn't after the outcome.

[ashie62]

At this point I am Verkempt. The Mets are wearing me out.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Daily News reporting that it's two years.

[metirish]

Unfinished business , christ , 2015 seems like the aberration

I am not at all bent out of shape by this, #metstwitter is in a frenzy , it's natural state really .

[MFS62]

Ashie62 wrote: At this point I am Verkempt. The Mets are wearing me out.

(Violating my rule for myself)
Verklempt?
If you're thinking of fah'klempt (there are alternate spellings) it means choked up with tears of joy.
That seems to contradict the rest of your post.
Later.

[Lefty Specialist]

I'd like to give Sandy an extension, but it probably wouldn't be as pleasant. Is this to buy his silence on all matters Wilpon for the next two years? Because I can't think of another reason; they have a bare farm system and a team that finished 22 games under .500. Those are not generally conditions that engender job security.

[Edgy MD]

It's not like 2017 was the sum total of his tenure.

And the system isn't bare so much as it was in a growing cycle his first few years, and has been pruned the last three.

[dgwphotography]

It's a reward for salary growth below MLB average, and for being a good soldier. He has basically been their shield since he arrived.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: It's not like 2017 was the sum total of his tenure. And the system isn't bare so much as it was in a growing cycle his first few years, and has been pruned the last three.

We are hitting a dead spot, though perhaps it's injury related, but even so, it's on him. Of course, we could be talking about the Mets rich farm system next year. It's hard to take some of these things too seriously, when there's so much variation and randomness.

I'm fine with an Alderson extension though, though I guess 2018 will tell us a lot.

[Edgy MD]

I don't know if they're hitting a dead spot or not. It's December. But four of their top five prospects* all "graduated" in the second half of last year, and are neither being counted as among their minor league assets nor particularly among their major league assets this season. It's unclear which of them will perform going forward, but they are certainly still assets.

I tend to think teams shouldn't be ranked on their minor league systems so much as their talent under X age. Why should one team get points for having a 22-year-old shortstop in AA, while another team comes up short despite having a 21-year-old shortstop starting in the majors?

Beyond that, a bunch of talent got traded off in 2015 and 2016 that would have otherwise been blossoming now, but has yielded a meaningful return in big league wins.

According to the MLB.com list, anyhow (#'s 26, 28, and 29, too).

[Centerfield]

Sandy has done a terrible job with the farm system. I don't see how anyone can really refute this. In this recent ranking, it was ranked 27th out of 30.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2731819-re-ranking-all-30-mlb-farm-systems-at-the-end-of-2017s-milb-season

Now, of course this is subjective, but the low rating is pretty well accepted across the board. And sure, it's easier to have a better farm system when rebuilding, but that hasn't stopped the Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals and Cardinals from being much stronger than us. And that's not just this year. The Dodgers just graduated Bellinger, and that hasn't slowed them down at all. Simply stated, these clubs are just better at developing players.

It's not hard to see why. Look at the number of impact players Alderson has drafted and developed. It's Michael Conforto. That's it. The jury is still out on Rosario and Smith, but that's a terrible track record for someone who went through a rebuild and is now in his 7th year. Of the players he traded away, only Michael Fulmer has found success elsewhere.

By contrast, the Minaya years produced Harvey, deGrom, Matz, Murphy, Duda, Dickey, Familia, Mejia, Parnell and Flores.

Also, Sandy only gets production from the 1st Round (or supplemental first round). Conforto and Fullmer were both first round. So was Smith. Nimmo and Cecchini are role players, but they were also first rounders. He gets nothing after that. No gems like deGrom or Murphy.

And yes, 2015 was nice, but that team won only 90 games. The only reason we won the division that year is because the Nationals happened to stumble in 2015. If they had reached the mid-90's win total they typically reach, we would have been WC winners. And that post-season might have been very different.

Seven years, two winning seasons. Highest win total is 90. Terrible farm system.

The only good thing you can say about Sandy is that he fosters more faith than the Wilpons.

[Edgy MD]

Centerfield wrote: Sandy has done a terrible job with the farm system. I don't see how anyone can really refute this.

Easy. It was typically ranked around #2 or #3 just a few years earlier, and then in recent years it has both graduated many players, including 4 of their top 5 prospects from the previous season, and been gutted by trades as the 2015 and 2016 team muscled up. Heck, Law ranked it #7 even as recently as last January.

It's been a terrible year, but it's like judging an orchard after a pruning.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Centerfield wrote: Sandy has done a terrible job with the farm system. I don't see how anyone can really refute this. In this recent ranking, it was ranked 27th out of 30. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2731819-re-ranking-all-30-mlb-farm-systems-at-the-end-of-2017s-milb-season A team's ranking at any one moment in the system is pretty irrelevant, as noted they graduated their best prospects and traded some others to support their pennant run. I wouldn;t say that's a terrible job. Now, of course this is subjective, but the low rating is pretty well accepted across the board. And sure, it's easier to have a better farm system when rebuilding, but that hasn't stopped the Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals and Cardinals from being much stronger than us. And that's not just this year. The Dodgers just graduated Bellinger, and that hasn't slowed them down at all. Simply stated, these clubs are just better at developing players. So are you saying that had Bellinger been with the Mets he wouldn't be as good? Or are you saying that that because the Dodgers picked Bellinger they are better at "developing" them? Which is it? It's not hard to see why. Look at the number of impact players Alderson has drafted and developed. It's Michael Conforto. That's it. Could they do the 2014 draft all over again Conforto would probably be the first pick. The jury is still out on Rosario and Smith because they are 21 and 22 years old. How many guys that age in the big leagues are the juries not out on? Show your work! Of the players he traded away, only Michael Fulmer has found success elsewhere. but that's a terrible track record for someone who went through a rebuild and is now in his 7th year. That would indicate he traded away the right ones, wouldn't it? By contrast, the Minaya years produced Harvey, deGrom, Matz, Murphy, Duda, Dickey, Familia, Mejia, Parnell and Flores. In other words, 1 superstar. Also, Sandy only gets production from the 1st Round (or supplemental first round). Conforto and Fullmer were both first round. So was Smith. Nimmo and Cecchini are role players, but they were also first rounders. He gets nothing after that. No gems like deGrom or Murphy. You're welcome to have Minaya back as GM. Of course he pissed away more useful players for less return in a single trade than Alderson has in seven years. Also, the farm system was generally ranked very poorly in his tenure, with his "top" guys generally big disappointments. I'm not ready to toss aside Zimmo as a guy who won't be a good player. Cecchini looks like a miss, but so have been most of the 1st round guys from that draft. Plenty of non-1st round guys in the system could still make a difference. And you're giving Omar credit for Dickey but not Alderson for Syndergaard? Would that happen to be because it's too far off the agenda? And yes, 2015 was nice, but that team won only 90 games. The only reason we won the division that year is because the Nationals happened to stumble in 2015. If they had reached the mid-90's win total they typically reach, we would have been WC winners. And that post-season might have been very different. Right, the Nationals "happened" to "stumble" into a team with vastly better pitching that beat them 11 of 19 times. What an unfortunate "stumble" for them. The only good thing you can say about Sandy is that he fosters more faith than the Wilpons.

I don't believe that either. The Mets had a huge boner for hiring Minaya to make a show of their progressiveism, whereas Sandy was foisted upon the club by MLB in the manner of an activist shareholder proxy because it knew the owners were so fucking stupid they couldn't be trusted to make a decent hire on their own while they were $25M in debt to them. Even when it was clear Omar was the least competent signer and trader in the league, ruining a great 2006 team he built in a rare period of free spending allowed by the club with dumb wasteful signings and terrible personnel decisions wrt managers, they still re-hired him.

[Centerfield]

Certainly not advocating the return of Minaya. He wasn't a very good GM, and I have more faith in Sandy than Omar, but he seems to have had talent as a scout. He found a good deal of hidden gems during his time here.

Addressing your points:

*Bellinger: I'm saying that the Dodgers graduated Bellinger last year but are deep enough to still rank pretty high. Losing your top guys doesn't mean you have to drop if your system is deep enough.

*I disagree that Minaya developed one superstar. deGrom is an elite pitcher. Murphy was a strong hitter for us and has turned into an MVP candidate. Harvey was, for a time, the best pitcher in baseball. Dickey won the Cy Young. That's four that could legitimately be called a superstar (even if some of those stars have faded). Familia is one of the best closers in the game, Duda his 30 HR's and is a useful player. Flores is a good sub, and Parnell and Mejia had brief periods of success. This is far better than Alderson's production.

*I gave Omar credit for finding Dickey. I'm sure there's some luck involved but the degree of difficulty on finding a journeyman and turning him into a Cy Young winner is much harder than trading a Cy Young winner for a nice prospect haul. Sandy did a great job on that trade, but the topic here was player development.

*The Nats didn't stumble that year just because the Mets beat them. If you reverse the head-to-head, and give the Nats 3 more wins, they still don't win the division. The Nats stumbled because they were a flawed team. We were lucky. 90 wins is usually not enough to win a division. Only Texas with 88 wins had fewer wins among the division winners that year. A team truly wanting to win a division should aim for a win total in the mid 90's.

Again, I'm certainly not advocating for the return of Omar Minaya. I'm saying that if you look at Sandy's work, objectively, it's hard to argue that he has been successful.

Put it another way. If we showed you these seven years of results when Alderson was hired, would you have been happy? No. You would have said I can live with a few years of down years to build a consistent winner. You would not accept years of rebuild, followed by a 90 win season, an 87 win season, then back to losing.

The book is still open on Alderson, and he has time to change his legacy, but I just don't see the success to match the high expectations we had in the beginning.

On Edit: All I meant by my comment about Rosario and Smith is that we don't know what they will be yet. They are highly regarded, but have just not performed at the ML level yet. Not a knock on either of them or Sandy, just explaining my reasoning for excluding them from the "it's only Michael Conforto" comment.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yeah, well. I wanted to be sure you weren't saying Minaya was a better leader for this franchise because he sure as shit was not and it sounded like it. And when the money went away he was terrible. Sandy has basically never had money, except last year, and that was a mistake. The Dodgers and Yankees and your other favorite teams do.

I haven't agreed with everything Sandy has done but that would be the case for any GM. I'm more concerned than anything that there was brain drain in the org that hasn't been addressed since DePodesta left (money) and I was unhappy how last year went because what $$ Sandy had he was sorta foisted with (Bruce, Walker) and that probably, they payroll was drawn up cheaper. That's making this year look worse by comparison. Of course the Wilpons should consider devoting more but we are in agreement they are idiots. As long as we're a cheap-ass team I think Sandy has been pretty good. Good trades for the most part, mixed results in the draft for sure and last year everything went wrong but I wouldn;t say that as a club with the resources here he's bad.

I give Omar huge credit for finding Dickey. But Sandy can't get enough for flipping him for Syndergaard and darnaud AND throwing in Omar's prize prospect, Josh Thole! Come on!

[Centerfield]

Sorry. Should have been more clear. Sandy's a much better overall GM. But I wouldn't mind having Omar involved some way in scouting. Or really, anyone with more of a baseball background? Again, not sure that is Sandy's strong suit. I don't think he's done a good job with the farm system. Maybe the Wilpons aren't investing enough in some ways? Not sure.

I thought Sandy made great trades for Noah and Zack. The results for Zack notwithstanding.

I wonder how much of Sandy's subpar win record is a result of not getting clarity on the budget from the Wilpons. For instance, if when he was hired, he was told, hey this is the budget and it's never going above that. I think he would have done a Houston style rebuild. No Granderson, no DJ Carrasco. Etc.

But I get the feeling he was told to build a core and that he'd be allowed to spend around it. I think he was told that as recently as October/November. But then they pulled the rug out from under him.

[Ceetar]

Maybe the Wilpons knew it was coming and told him, but I believe the Madoff lawsuit hit merely a few months after Sandy was hired. I suspect they were going to try to pare down anyway, given the losing records and the bleeding money bits, but I don't think they realized HOW bad it was going to get (add the economy tanking stuff on top of that)

As i said though, lot rides on 2018. If they're a winning team again, then 2017 was a weird injury-laden blip in a series of success. And one that they'd have successfully righted before it got disastrous. If everyone's hurt again and sucks, then it's probably the brief success that was fluky, gambling on the right players at the time, etc.

[nymr83]

Ceetar wrote: Maybe the Wilpons knew it was coming and told him, but I believe the Madoff lawsuit hit merely a few months after Sandy was hired. I suspect they were going to try to pare down anyway, given the losing records and the bleeding money bits, but I don't think they realized HOW bad it was going to get (add the economy tanking stuff on top of that)

well, it depends if Wilpon was another innocent Madoff victim or if he should have known what was coming

oe - but we dont really need to re-litigate that issue here

i think Sandy has done a good overall job under the circumstances.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think so too. While some may get exasperated by his patience and restraint, at least he didn't trade Jacob deGrom for Victor Zambrano. That's the kind of thing that a more impulsive GM might have done.

I've gotten the impression that JP Riccardi would have a quicker trigger (he's said so) and that John Ricco is the more patient one. When Sandy goes, if one of those two is the heir, I'd prefer Ricco for that reason.

[Ceetar]

Nymr83 wrote: Ceetar wrote: Maybe the Wilpons knew it was coming and told him, but I believe the Madoff lawsuit hit merely a few months after Sandy was hired. I suspect they were going to try to pare down anyway, given the losing records and the bleeding money bits, but I don't think they realized HOW bad it was going to get (add the economy tanking stuff on top of that) well, it depends if Wilpon was another innocent Madoff victim or if he should have known what was coming

Not really. I mean, they probably should've known the lawsuit was coming, but maybe not just how much of their money it would tie up, how much they might seek in damages (originally like a billion if I recall?) They ultimately only paid(are paying) like $60. They paid $16 million in 2016, and in 2017-2020 they're due to pay about $12 million each year.

Theoretically that's a drop in the bucket and something Sterling can easily handle and shouldn't have any effect on the Mets, but in the times while the lawsuit was still going on and they were at risk of much more, they probably couldn't even touch a large portion of their own money that Picard could've determined was not actually theirs, but Madoff victims. Thinking themselves victims, or even just thinking that they'd be viewed is victims, I'm not sure they expected or told Sandy that hundreds of millions of dollars would be inaccessible.

[Edgy MD]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I give Omar huge credit for finding Dickey. But Sandy can't get enough for flipping him for Syndergaard and darnaud AND throwing in Omar's prize prospect, Josh Thole! Come on!

Dickey signed eight years ago today, to much would-be comic derision. Twenty-three-point-two WARs later and counting, I think it's worked out!

[Frayed Knot]

Centerfield wrote: Sandy has done a terrible job with the farm system. I don't see how anyone can really refute this. In this recent ranking, it was ranked 27th out of 30.

Sure, but that's just a snapshot in time. Several (hopefully) good players were promoted and no one in the next level has stepped up, at least not dramatically.
Now if that next crop never improves then it's going to be a dry couple of years, but we'll have to see how that goes.

In short, it's not like a farm system can be managed so as to grow incrementally year by year; good systems lead to promotions which inevitably lead to thinner systems.

[Centerfield]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Sandy has basically never had money, except last year, and that was a mistake.

Sandy has never had money. Last year the Mets splurged and went all the way to 12th in payroll. I hardly call that having money.

And I get that you never liked Bruce or Walker, and how you felt that was "extra" salary. But I would love to hear how those two guys, who combined for 3.7 WAR despite being traded away mid-season, constituted a "mistake".

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: The Dodgers and Yankees and your other favorite teams do.

Don't really understand this dig at all. The Dodgers and Yankees fund the highest payroll they can to maximize their chances of winning. And they win more often than not. Wanting the Mets to do this makes me a Dodger and Yankee fan?

The Dodgers and Yankees have strong farm systems. As far as I can tell, this strength seems to be independent of money. If I want the Mets to do this also, does that make me a Dodger and Yankee fan?

The Houston Astros just won the World Series. I want the Mets to do this too. Does that make me an Astro fan?

[nymr83]

NY fans would not accept the path the Astros took to win that WS. the Wilpons would never be allowed to bottom out like that.

[Edgy MD]

I think they did in their own fashion, and the Mets beat the Astros to the World Series by two years.

The real question is whether to do that again or believe despite the evidence of last season that what they built can continue.

[Centerfield]

Nymr83 wrote: NY fans would not accept the path the Astros took to win that WS. the Wilpons would never be allowed to bottom out like that.

I can't speak for other fans, but if the max budget we are ever going to have is middle of the pack, this is our only chance. We have to own up to being a small market team and strategize like one. Tear it down. Rebuild. Stock that farm system, hope they pan out, then take advantage of the small window you have to compete. Lose those players as they get expensive, then tear it down again.

Honestly, I much prefer that over mediocrity over and over again.

[Centerfield]

The Astros committed to a rebuild and built a 100 win team.

The Mets never committed to rebuilding and built a 90 win team.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The Dodgers and Yankees have strong farm systems. As far as I can tell, this strength seems to be independent of money.

Not so. They splash the pot for the cherries in 1-2 year bursts (see: Dodgers spending over $30M in 2015-16, well beyond their $3M international-money allotment; MFYs doing much the same in 2014-15), take the penalties associated therewith, then do the same thing once the penalties are completed. In the meantime, they have traded away major league assets aggressively during the penalty periods when they have been unable to sign players for more than $300K. They do what they've been doing in the domestic FA market, basically-- overspend, but do so smartly, as an investment. They continue to do so.

[Centerfield]

I don’t understand all the specifics of what you just wrote but yeah we should do that.

What he said.