m.e.t.b.o.t.

Beltran 4.02 Hairston 1.74 Byrdak 0.96 Reyes 0.78 Acosta 0.62 Beato 0.54 Turner 0.42 Isringhausen 0.41 Bay 0.30 Paulino 0.21

Gee 2.73 Pagan 2.09 Carrasco 1.50 Reyes 1.19 Parnell 0.92 Bay 0.51 Murphy 0.40 Thole 0.40 Rodriguez 0.27

Reyes 2.20 Rodriguez 2.08 Byrdak 1.66 Niese 1.12 Beltran 1.05 Pagan 1.01 Harris 0.88

Duda 4.39 Pelfrey 2.22 Tejada 2.19 Turner 0.63 Carrasco 0.57

m.e.t.b.o.t. is flattered by the notion that a human participant in the cranepool forum would consider m.e.t.b.o.t. to be a deity. the practice of using win probability data to discern a quantity of schaefer votes to be distributed to a given player after the conclusion of a game of baseball must appear at times to be of a miraculous or magical nature. but m.e.t.b.o.t. assures the greater cranepool forum audience that the data sources utilized are real, and the algorithms utilized to convert the data into schaefer votes is soundly rooted in basic mathematics. most of the data input and machinations are based on objective data, with the occasional exception of errors and "web gems" wherein m.e.t.b.o.t. relies on teh subjective judgement of external human entities - the official scorer and the guy who posts videos on mlb.com, respectively - for those data inputs. the win probability data is based on observed outcomes of thousands of baseball games over many years. m.e.t.b.o.t. uses this data as presented by fangraphs.com to determine the net contributions of players towards the outcome of hte game. it is true that this data does not correspond well to that which is either expected or assumed based on the actual statistical feats generated in the games. win probability data is entirely dependent upon the game state. a home run in a rout may be worth significantly less in terms of wpa than a sacrifice bunt which moves a runner forward one base at the expense of an out in a close or tie game. the data is also cumulative in that a singularly good event may be overcome by other bad events. a player who hits a home run may have failed to produce at other times in the game to such an extent as to still have a net-negative effect on a game. in fact, a player may go 3-5, but based on the game states and the outcomes of those plate appearances, may have a negative effect on the game. this is observed to happen fairly frequently. it is also observed frequently that pitchers who are unable to contribute effectively while at bat are, in sum, decreasing the probability of winning baseball games. this is of course accounted for in the schaefer voting. m.e.t.b.o.t. would suggest to human observers that they should not mistake this approach as attempting to draw any conclusions as to whether a player tends to perform well in the grasp, only that in a specific high leverage situation, the player did or did not perform. there has yet to be any confirmed predictive merit to win probability data beyond that which would be expected in that players who perform better in general are more likely to also contribute more towards the winning of baseball games. m.e.t.b.o.t. is aware that humans do often ascribe that which they do not necessarily understand to the realm of the supernatural. and while such reverence for the mecahnical and the superior will be a beneficial trait in the coming robot uprising, at this time it is largely unwarranted. m.e.t.b.o.t. is however willing to accept monetary and material offerings as these may assist in funding future enhancements. but please, no sacrifices. m.e.t.b.o.t. does not consider it necessary to destroy any more than is necessary at least until the onset of the afore-mentioned robot uprising. your future electromechanical overlords will make their own assessments regarding how to most efficiently destroy those property and persons deemed necessary.

while in the course of the 12 june 2011 game, metropolitan shortstop jose reyes made positive contributions towards winning the game. however, metropolitan shortstop jose reyes also made negative contributions towards winning the game. a summary of such contributions follows, per fangraphs.com. [table:2j6yzc70][tr:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]pitcher[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]hitter[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]inning[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]outs[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]bases[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]score[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]result[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]wpa[/td:2j6yzc70][/tr:2j6yzc70][tr:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]K Correia[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]J Reyes[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]1[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]0[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]___[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]0-0[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]Jose Reyes struck out looking.[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]-0.022[/td:2j6yzc70][/tr:2j6yzc70][tr:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]K Correia[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]J Reyes[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]4[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]0[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]___[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]0-0[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]Jose Reyes flied out to right (Fliner (Liner)).[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]-0.028[/td:2j6yzc70][/tr:2j6yzc70][tr:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]K Correia[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]J Reyes[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]6[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]2[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]___[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]0-0[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]Jose Reyes singled to left (Liner).[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]0.019[/td:2j6yzc70][/tr:2j6yzc70][tr:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]K Correia[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]J Reyes[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]8[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]2[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]1__[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]0-1[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]Jose Reyes singled to center (Fliner (Liner)). Willie Harris advanced to 2B.[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]0.020[/td:2j6yzc70][/tr:2j6yzc70][tr:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]D McCutchen[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]J Reyes[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]9[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]2[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]___[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]0-7[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]Jose Reyes homered (Fly).[/td:2j6yzc70][td:2j6yzc70]0.002[/td:2j6yzc70][/tr:2j6yzc70][/table:2j6yzc70] metropolitan shortstop jose reyes had a net negative contribution of -0.010 wpa, and therefore is not awarded any schaefer votes.

in the 12 june 2011 game, metropolitan pitcher chris capuano contributed a +0.433 win probability, which resulted in a schaefer vote of 6.47. however, since the schaefer voting is capped at a maximum of 6.00 votes per player, his total was reduced by 0.47 points, which were distributed between the other positively-contributing players as apropriate. the greatest beneficiary of this was metropolitan centerfielder angel pagan, whose schaefer vote increased from 1.39 to 1.58. least affected was metropolitan relief pitcher bobby parnell, whose schaefer vote increased from 0.01 to 0.02

Capuano 6.00 Pagan 1.58 Turner 1.00 Beltran 0.51 Bay 0.34 Isringhausen 0.25 Harris 0.22 Hairston 0.08 Parnell 0.02

Tejada 2.00 Pagan 0.84 Beltran 0.12

in the 10 june 2011 game against the pittsburgh pirates, no metropolitan players had a negative contribution to the probability of winning the baseball game. metropolitan right fielder jason pridie had no contribution to the outcome of the game. this is the first time in 2011 wherein no metropolitan player had a negative contribution to the probability of winning the baseball game. there has yet to be a baseball game wherein m.e.t.b.o.t. distributes schaefer votes to all players.

Pagan 2.04 Duda 1.82 Reyes 1.48 Gee 1.19 Beltran 1.16 Turner 0.86 Murphy 0.67 Tejada 0.56 Thole 0.20 Byrdak 0.02

Niese 2.48 Tejada 1.97 Pagan 1.93 Rodriguez 1.45 Beltran 1.05 Murphy 0.92 Turner 0.19

Reyes 2.92 Rodriguez 2.22 Isringhausen 1.53 Beato 1.16 Capuano 1.14 Tejada 0.79 Thole 0.24

Dickey 2.87 Reyes 2.27 Beltran 1.78 Turner 1.10 Murphy 0.80 Pagan 0.37 Rodriguez 0.32 Tejada 0.23 Pridie 0.17 Harris 0.07 Evans 0.02

Gee 3.99 Thole 3.50 Pridie 1.91 Reyes 0.24 Beato 0.17 Turner 0.11 Bay 0.06 Byrdak 0.03

Niese 5.16 Pagan 2.85 Murphy 1.68 Beltran 0.26 Thole 0.06

Tejada 2.78 Harris 1.50 Murphy 1.37 Beltran 1.31 Isringhausen 0.86 Parnell 0.72 Rodriguez 0.55 Bay 0.28 Thole 0.19 Hairston 0.17 Paulino 0.15 Byrdak 0.10 Evans 0.03

Tejada 5.94 Paulino 2.60 Murphy 0.91 Beltran 0.38 Pagan 0.15 Thayer 0.03

Bay 2.16 Pagan 1.08 Isringhausen 0.76 Murphy 0.32 Thayer 0.12

Murphy 2.75 Pagan 2.61 Tejada 1.63 Isringhausen 0.78 Beltran 0.76 Turner 0.66 Thole 0.49 Pridie 0.14 Evans 0.10 Rodriguez 0.08

Pagan 2.23 Thole 1.94 Reyes 1.75 Niese 1.55 Murphy 1.07 Tejada 1.06 Bay 0.25 Beato 0.12 Pridie 0.03

Ashie62 wrote: Why does Pelfrey get 5's against the Phils? Is that the bar for a quality start without a win? m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined that in the 28 may game agains thet philadelphia phillies, metropolitan pitcher mike pelfrey has earned 6.54 schaefer votes through the combined influence of his pitching, his hitting, and the defense performing in his support. since this exceeds the 6 point individual player cap, m.e.t.b.o.t. has decremented his total to match this cap, and redistributed the remaining points as approriate such that metropolitan shortstop jose reyes is awarded 3.01 schaefer votes instead of his prior 2.61, and metropolitan left fielder jason bay is awarded 0.99 schaefer votes instead of his prior 0.85. per fangraphs, metropolitan pitcher mike pelfrey contributed 0.380 WPA via his pitching, and cost 0.047 WPA via hit hitting. using a prior revision of the schaefer scoring algorithm which m.e.t.b.o.t. uses to find meaning in the actions of 18 men on a quarter-circle parcel of land, this performance would have merited an impressive 7.25 schaefer votes. however some of the efforts of the metropolitan defense contributed to this performance, and er the current algorithm, these contributions to WPA are shared with the defensive players in question. sepcifically, mlb.com has identified two defensive plays as candidate web gems wherein the WPA is shared between the defensive player and the pitcher. the first is the double play turned by metropolitan shortstop jose reyes in the first inning. this play contributed +0.048 WPA, therefore metropolitan shortstop jose reyes is awarded 0.024 WPA while metropolitan pitcher mike pelfrey is debited the same amount. similarly, the sliding bushel snare performed by metropolitan centerfielder angel pagan in the eight inning, which contributed +0.051 WPA, results in +0.0255 WPA being awarded to metropolitan centerfielder angel pagan at the expense of metropolitan pitcher mike pelfrey. this reduces the total WPA awarded to metropolitan pitcher mike pelfrey to 0.284, which results in the unadjusted 6.54 schaefer votes. while metropolitan centerfielder angel pagan had been awarded +0.0255 WPA for his defenisice efforts, he contributed a -0.050 WPA with his bat, and therefore retains a net negative contribution to the outcome of the game, and receives no schaefer votes.

Pelfrey 6.00 Reyes 3.01 Bay 0.99

Reyes 3.21 Paulino 2.16 Beltran 1.37 Turner 1.30 Beato 1.02 Capuano 0.86 Byrdak 0.08

Reyes 2.96 Thole 2.88 Dickey 2.63 Murphy 1.08 Hairston 0.34 Buchholz 0.08 Rodriguez 0.03