Ceetar

=kcmets post_id=68150 time=1623869538 user_id=53] I guess it's the alcohol then. I had an 8% or so a couple of weekends ago. Truth Serum I believe it was called from a brewery not far from me. Too much.

ABV has nothing to do with hoppiness and it's more likely to be the opposite anyway. but JCL is dead to me now. Higher Burnin' is pretty good, and when the alternative is Miller High Life..bleh. But I get you, there's almost only NE IPA at Citi Field if you want craft, so it makes it tough if you're not a huge fan of that very fruit-forward almost syrupy smooth pillow mouthfeel style of IPA. I'm seeing rumors of a Mermaid Pilsner or a Beach Beer by Coney Island (Bushwick PIls?) so that might be where you want to go.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: It seems weird that they would base this on anything to do with the 2019 Mets, or even the 2020 Mets. The Mets playoff odds are being hurt because of guys like Steven Matz, Michael Wacha, and Rick Porcello? That's the first thing I thought of as soon as I read DJ's post. I can't come up with a single reason for using that methodology. ..playoff odds are a lot more meaningful and interesting with 60 games to go in the season, and using the first part of the season as a proxy for how good they've been, and adjusting based on that is certainly..something. It's not really a projections system, and isn't, for example, factoring in expected IP From Noah Syndergaard. While some teams experience significant turnover from year to year, a roster is going to still be somewhat consistent. This certainly means early early numbers are worse for this particular system, but that's fine, after game 10 you're better off just looking at projections.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hitters-shouldnt-swing-against-jacob-degrom/Hitters Shouldn't Swing Against Jacob deGrom

another spray chart from baseball savant. There's no legend, but I think darker is frequency, blue is out red is hit? [attachment=0]spray.png[/attachment]

it's absolutely a cat and mouse game, shifting, and on so many levels. guys try to make adjustments, swing later, etc. Or the league selects for power, which I guess ties into some of the arguments. I know some are always like "hit/bunt it the other way! Or have more players that use the whole field!" instead baseball selected for guys that hit it OVER the shift, because that value is much greater, and if converting more soft hits to outs than before, it makes the difference between putting the ball in play and striking out even smaller. Arguably some of the solution is to have 4 outfielders. Austin Meadows hits it in the air 56.5% of the time. I bet you could cover most of the spots on the infield he's gonna hit it with 3 guys. As for deGrom. The Mets are clearly shifting more in general. They've shifted on 82/111 lefty PA and 37/112 righty ones. They're looking at _something_. [attachment=0]chart (1).png[/attachment] This is 2019-2021. There's no reason to ever play deGrom up the middle.

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=67447 time=1623294291 user_id=68] Jacob deGrom should be starting every 5th day, and every other Mets pitcher should be moved around as necessary to accommodate this policy. That should be the Mets default position, with adjustments to be made if the 5th day is an off day, or, as Edgy wrote, to have deGrom miss the ASG. The Mets could back off of this policy after they either clinch a post-season berth or are eliminated from the post-season before it begins.

=kcmets post_id=67552 time=1623431631 user_id=53] Anyone know what the crowd capacity % is up to this weekend? I may try a solo run on Sunday.

I mean, I dumped 40 years of retrosheet data into sql server a few months ago, but that's mostly the trivial part (the Mets already have WAAAAAY more than that in their db) I'm working in garbage .net and like, old .net, not even modern responsive design .net. I just hope the VC thats owns my companies flips it for billions and I can retire and buy the Mets out from under Cohen or something.

It's a little modern for my experience (in terms of being 'qualified') but it'd certainly be nice to be working on something I actually like and am interested in. The commute would suck though. reading between the lines, sounds like they're building a GUI to put on Tablets and the web to allow the players/staff to quickly view/query stats and such.

we've sorta selected out control pitchers too, in a league where the hitters are so good they lay off the corner nibbling, and also one where everyone's throwing 99, pitchers that throw 92 and hit corners don't really thrive unless they're absolutely ELITE level control. Otherwise they get bombed a few times when they're off. Plus the current 'Avengers over Spider-Man' type rotation construction means teams would rather have a guy that's throwing straight 99mph fastballs and just not let him throw as many innings or times through the order.

My guess is McKinney is a Kirk Nieuwenhuis type, a sorta league averagish hitter, better at times, that will completely vanish once there's a larger sample of pitchfX for pitchers to exploit his flaws. Though he's been pretty good, overall. His only bad times were with Toronto in 2019 (though he did well in AAA that year) and there was perhaps some batted ball bad luck mixed in. We don't have the data on 2020, and he stumbled out the gate with Milwaukee this season, but it was only 100 AB and that's 100 AB after not seeing MLB pitching sine 2019

https://twitter.com/Bbl_Astrophyscs/status/1402763806296707072

Whether or not it's true is mostly irrelevant. MLB doesn't seem capable of executing to be honest, based on the data we have. Though it's possible they intended subtler tweaks and overcorrected and exposed themselves. It's also, hopefully, not lost on guys like Alonso. (Who's the Mets player rep this year? is it Alonso?) He pretty much telegraphed that Lindor agrees with him, Lindor is an Alternate Association Player Rep on the MLBPA executive subcommittee. (and a pending superstar free agent when they would've made any ball tweaks) MLB has complete authority to do whatever they want with the ball, based on the rules. Whether or not they did, is again, irrelevant. They HAVE been trying to tinker with the offensive environment, whatever their motives, without the players input. By design or not, it HAS had a pretty sizable impact, and that's certainly something the players are going to care about. I'd hope guys like Alonso are aware that the Mets are currently scheduled to play a few games worth of fewer innings than everyone else. That Mets season total when put up against someone else might look slightly less as a result.

=Fman99 post_id=67433 time=1623289577 user_id=86] Why drink a beer when you can suck down some shitty flavored seltzer?

Totally don't believe Billy McKinney is a real person.

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=67270 time=1623179401 user_id=68] Meanwhile, deGrom's curveball -now his 4th pitch- is widely considered to be the best curveball in baseball.

3. he threw 30 last year (only 4 to righties) 87 in 2019, and 252 in 2018

yeah, considering that matches his velocity increase and there's no big jump, seems 'clean' MLB just needs to decide what they want and go with it. (Well, they should decided what the sport should be, what they want is everyone to just not talk about it so they don't have to do anything) Either let them use 'stuff', or don't. make a rule and enforce it, or don't. Same with sign stealing, PEDs. If you continue to just draw fuzzy gray lines, players are absolutely going to push that as far as they're able. Or whatever, just fire whoever the Mets hire as their next manager and consider the case closed.

just some idiot on twitter noted that he occasionally touches his belt. shocking.

I read this great anecdote about Steven Cohen recently. I don't remember where I read it but I'm certain that I read it in the last two or three months. It goes something like this (I'm probably improvising a little): Cohen was in a bidding war with another potential buyer for a piece of property -- some expensive luxury home. And the other buyer was outgunned -- Cohen would just constantly raise his bid for the property. Finally, the other buyer ended up practically begging Cohen to back off. In the end the other buyer offered Cohen one million dollars to walk away from the property. One million dollars just to not bid on the property. And Cohen's response was: "What the hell am I gonna do with a million dollars?" Maybe the Dodgers, Phillies and Blue Jays should've tried buying Cohen off to not lose bidding wars. oh wait..

hopefully it becomes permanent.

Edgy MD wrote: A beer? What do I look like? A little girl? my little girls loved my Unicorn Farts beer. Confused? clearly you're not up to date on your https://www.barleyprose.com/beer/mets-on-tap-episode-10/https://www.barleyprose.com/beer/mets-on-tap-episode-10/

NLCS preview?

i mean, SNYs pre/post is mindnumbling awful too.