Vic Sage

...and Cespedes' status still up in the air, and Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.

oh goody, the Wilpon bashing season has begun! It's my favorite time of year! Grab a stick and come on down! We're not re-signing Cespedes because Fred is a low-down, cheap-ass, corrupt snake-in-the-grass. Next!

Edgy MD wrote: Up until 2016, the Mets had drafted position players first five consecutive years. I don't think it's true that they've ignored building a core of talent there. It's just that the pitching established itself first, for multiple reasons, some tying back to the previous administration, and some reflecting benevolent fortune. point taken. I retract my unwarranted shot. And maybe Conforto, Nimmo, Smith, Cecchini and Rosario (along with Nido, Evans, Beccera and Lindsay)will be the building blocks for the Mets' future. But none of them are the sort of blue chip prospects that Bryant was, coming up, and i'm not confident in any of them.

the fact that the Yanks' run of titles was fueled by their "core four" didn't make them 1 drop more likeable. But i don't have a problem with the Cubs. Their success cements Theo's legacy, which i think is a good thing. He offers a blueprint (which the Mets have arduously ignored) of taking your lumps to build around a core of talented young position players (rather than pitchers, whose health and success are more unpredictable), where player evaluation is strongly driven by analytics, and then adding key pitchers and relievers via FA or via trade when the team is ready to win. Success is hard to achieve, and harder to maintain, but i like Theo's chances, given the youth of their roster and the resources of the organization. The Cubs may well be in the way of the Mets for the next decade, so there'll plenty of time to develop a hate for them. But i'm not there yet.

i have this dream where we don't have a closer... just good relievers who come in at various high-leverage situations throughout the game, at the most critical moments, giving the ball to the guy with the best matchup. but then i wake up.

but if Td'A hits .290 with 15 HRs and .825+ OPS (his minor league averages, and close to his numbers for 1/2 2015 season in NY), his defense will seem SO much better!

Which positions do you have the most amount of confidence in for 2017? Which do you have the least? Feel free to rank them. I guess my “confidence” has two perspectives: my confidence in knowing the identity of who is going to be our primary starter at each position, as well as my confidence about the amount of production we’ll get from each position. I think the situation is clearer about who is going to be playing, but my confidence in getting significant production from those players is fairly low. In fact, we do not have a known stud currently under contract at any position (assuming Cespedes is about to opt out). Catcher: d'Arnaud - We'll tender an offer, and I think he'll still be our starter. They've seen him produce when healthy and will probably roll the dice that he can at least return to that level next year. Anyway, there isn't an obvious FA upgrade. They do need a LH compliment for him, so they might sign a FA for that. And the only prospect we've got that produced last season is Nido, but he is still too far away to project. Plawecki? Pla-leez, stop. My confidence in production at Catcher: 30% First Base: Duda - They may non-tender him but that's unlikely, so he's our probable starter. However, his ongoing and mysterious back issues are an ongoing concern, even if Flores spells him over there against LHPs. Alternatives? In the minors, Dom Smith took a big step forward last year at AA, where he added power to his stroke. They'll need to see him do it again at AAA level, but if he has a hot start, and if Duda is unproductive and/or hurt, we may see Smith in Flushing at some point (at least after the deadline that stalls his arbitration clock). I don’t think they’re looking a FA 1Bmen, but it’s been suggested they could move either Conforto or Bruce to 1B. This depends, I think, on whether Cespedes re-signs, whether they keep Bruce, whether Conforto remembers how to hit ML pitching, whether they’re ok with Granderson in CF, and any number of other factors, including whether they want to take a chance teaching a new position to a player while playing games that matter. In any event, I’d hate to see them move Conforto, because I think he’s actually a decent OFer. Bruce would be the guy to move, if we keep him, and if Duda isn’t up to the job, because he’s not very good in the OF, and the move could improve our OF defense. His 1b defense? Unknowable, but there’s no reason it’d be any worse than Conforto’s (with neither of them having much experience there), so if we’re picking between those two, then Bruce. My confidence in production at 1b: 35% Second Base: Flores – I don’t think they’ll re-sign Walker. Hopefully they’ll tender him so we get a pick when he signs elsewhere, but I think the franchise is finally ready to see if Flores can handle full-time duty. With TJ Rivera, Reyes and Cabrera around, and Cecchini on the horizon, they have enough options here to stay with an in-house option and save their money for Cespedes. If Wright can’t handle 3b anymore, Flores, Rivera or Reyes will move over there. They’re going to want to see Cecchini play 2b at Vegas before they pull the trigger on that. My confidence in production at 2b: 65% Third Base: Wright – I think they’ll first see if Wright can play anymore. If not, some combination of Reyes, Rivera, Flores, and Cabrera will probably man the hot corner. We have no real 3B prospect on the horizon. My confidence in production at 3B: 25% Shortstop: Cabrera - He’s signed and coming off a career year, so he’s the starter. His production? Statistically likely to revert to his career averages, or less, given injuries and age. He’ll get rested by Reyes more frequently, but I think Flores only sees SS in an emergency. Reynolds is not a ML player, but we are deep in prospects at this position, including our best prospect, Rosario. I think they’ll move Cecchini to 2b at AAA to clear the decks for Rosario. My confidence in production at SS: 60% Left Field: Céspedes – I think they’ll overpay him and he’ll come back. I’d prefer him in RF, or even CF, because LF is a waste of his arm and he can cover enough ground to play those other positions. But they won’t do it; he probably won’t re-sign unless he gets some sort of commitment to keep him in LF, because he’s comfortable there. It will also be a little less strain on his body to stay in LF (rather than CF), so it could help him maintain his production. Conforto and/or Nimmo will be his primary LHed backups, either of whom could develop into decent – good ML players. If Cespedes doesn't come back, then Grandy in LF (with Bruce in RF and Nimmo/Conforto/Lagares in CF). They might go out to the FA market to replace Cespedes, with Bautista, or Trumbo, or somebody like that, but i hope not, and i doubt it. My confidence in production at LF: 75% Center Field: Granderson – It’s his last year of his contract, and his production is wildly inconsistent, but he’ll start in CF, at least for a while. Lagares will play against LHP (either in CF or RF) and if he (or Conforto, or Nimmo) hits well enough, he may take more ABs away from Grandy. My confidence in production at CF: 50% Right Field: Bruce – Given his hot finish, I think they’ll pick up his option ($13m for 30hr/90rbi bat is still a good deal). But if they keep Cespedes, I’m hoping they trade him (or at least move him to 1b), with Granderson taking over. I’d prefer Cespedes in RF, and Bruce at 1B or traded (with Grandy in LF, and Conforto & Lagares in CF), but that scenario is unlikely. Prospects: in addition to Conforto and Nimmo? Beccerra, but he’s hurt and still far away. My confidence in production at RF: 50%

yeah, you bozos really screwed the pooch on that one, that's for sure! Heyward, HA! what a piece of... (we hear off stage whispers) What? (more whispers) I did? (more whispers) Oh. (to the audience) never mind. (exits, whistling.)

i agree they'll be tendered... probably. And i think they should be. But they each have injury issues, or positional issues, or production issues (or all 3), so i can't say that each of them is a mortal lock (on a par with deGrom). It depends on if the Mets make trades or sign FAs, or need to save $$ and/or a roster spot.

baseball season ended weeks ago. a plague on both their houses.

i'm a big fan of the show, but i heard this was dreadful, so i passed on it. The last Broadway revival was about 10 years ago, with Raul Esparza as Riff Raff and Dick Cavett as the narrator. It was really good.

The Mets have 12 guys eligible for salary arbitration this year. Here's the list (2016 salary/expected 2017 salary per MLB Trade Rumors) -- these guys will certainly be tendered: RHP Addison Reed: $5.2M / $11.1M RHP Jeurys Familia: $4.1M / $8.8M RHP Matt Harvey: $4.3M / $5.2M RHP Jacob deGrom: $600K / $4.5M RHP Zack Wheeler: $546K / $1M these guys will probably be tendered: 1B Lucas Duda: $4.2M / $6.7M IF Wilmer Flores: $520K / $1.9M C Travis d’Arnaud: $540K / $1.7M LHP Josh Edgin: $500K / $800K these guys probably won't be tendered: C Rene Rivera: $443K / $2.2M OF Justin Ruggiano: $180K / $1.5M RHP Jim Henderson: $507K / $1.4M

a skill based entirely on deceit isn't one that needs to be supported by the rules, particularly at the cost of 25%-33% incorrect b/s calls. Sorry, Travis.

long term deals to guys over 33 don't sound appealing, especially when their best position is DH.

if we want to try and trade for Zunino, or Swihart, or another strong young catcher, then fine. Even Rupp. The Phillies have a hot prospect, so Rupp might be available. But overpaying for Ramos, or dumping Travis for Plawecki, don't sound like great options.

i don't really get the desire to dump Travis for Plawecki. d'Arnaud has actually shown that, when healthy, he can be a productive player in the majors over the course of a season; Plawecki has not. Plawecki didn't even dominate in the minors; but d'Arnaud did. Nor does Plawecki have any kind of significant defensive edge (if any) over d'Arnaud. Travis is going into his prime, age 27 turning 28 next year. Yes, injuries are an ongoing concern, and availability is one of the most important abilities a player needs. But replacing d'Arnaud with Ramos doesn't really solve the injury/availability issue; plus, he's older (turning 30) and coming off a career year, so he'll cost alot. I think investing in age 30+ catchers coming off career years, whose career stats aren't much better than d'Arnaud, is a bad idea, and expecting Plawecki to outperform d'Arnaud, given what they have each accomplished in their careers to date, isn't a good bet either. Yes, a quality backup is important, particularly one that can shut down the running game for those of our starters who suck at holding runners. That's not Plawecki either.

My ranking of GENERATIONS was, as i said, my understanding of the critical consensus about the film, but my personal ranking would put it ahead of ST III and INSURRECTION. Still, I'd keep it in the 3rd tier. It has some great nerdgastic moments, but some awful ones too. It's a very inconsistent movie.

I'm going to shake my naked ass at the TV tonight. Because all threads lead to my ass.

fair enough

the rule doesn't require the ball to maintain its location in the strike zone all the way through the air space. If it crosses the zone at any point its a strike. So the front plane is a sufficient measure. It doesn't matter if it falls down after that. And the upper limit of the zone should be measured for each player based on film analysis of their position when they actually swing and hit a ball. Because it shouldn't matter how they stand before or after that. What matters is where they are at the point of contact, and if a pitch is within that zone at that point, its a strike, no matter how they stood in the box up to that point, or whether they danced up to the plate when they got up to bat. I love the automation of this process. I saw the piece on REALSPORT and was convinced about the technology's superior accuracy. Crawford's attitude is exactly why its necessary; the arrogance of the umpires is unbridled. The only argument against automating the b/s calls is represented by Gumbel's Luddite view that writing a story is better if you carve it in stone rather than write it on a word processor. His notion that the "integrity" of the game must include the game-changing missed calls because... well, it always has, and it's "charming", is the same sort of stupidity we've heard for years about quantitative analysis. The wrong-headed self-rightesousness of Gumbel never ceases to amaze.

if Duda is ready to go, he goes. Otherwise, Loney. Terry is not going to start experimenting, and Campbell hitting a LHP is still significantly less productive than Duda, even with a bad back and facing a great lefty.

isn't Colon going to start game 1 of an NLCS, if they get that far? I'd think they'd prefer to have him fresh for that game, rather than coming in the pen. Lugo won't be used for quite a while and has relief experience. I think, if they're going to go with 1 starter in the pen, it'll be Lugo over Colon.. or am i missing something? wouldn't be the first time.

WC roster? [u:15hegij2]regular line-up (9):[/u:15hegij2] 3b - Reyes # SS - Cabrera # LF - Cespedes CF - Granderson* RF - Bruce* 2b - TJRivera 1b - Duda* C - R.Rivera P - Syndegaard [u:15hegij2]Bench (7):[/u:15hegij2] C- d'Arnaud LHed OF/PH - deAza* RHed OF/PH - Lagares LHed IF/PH -Johnson* RHed IF/PH -Campbell LHed PH - Conforto* + Kelly# [u:15hegij2]RP (9):[/u:15hegij2] CL - Familia SUp - Reed SUp - Salas RH - Robles LH1 - Blevins* LH2 -Smoker* Long - Lugo + Henderson +Goeddel [u:15hegij2]optimal line-up v Baumgarner?:[/u:15hegij2] 3b - Reyes # CF - Lagares SS - Cabrera # LF - Cespedes RF - Bruce* 2b - TJRivera 1b - Duda*l C - RRivera P - Syndegaard

Assuming you don't want to start Duda against a tough LHP, or want to PH for him late in a game (neither of which is far-fetched), who is your RHed 1bman? Or if Duda re-injures himself (also a distinct possibility), and you need a 1bman, assuming we haven't included Loney on the roster, then who's the 1bman? I guess in that case its K.Johnson, but he's more useful as a LHed bat off the bench, or platooning with Rivera at 2b. With Flores down, the only RHed hitter we have with any 1b experience is Campbell. So the more i look at it, the more i see Collins wanting him on the post-season roster. I Like Kelly alright, but he's like a less productive Rivera, and i don't think he has any experience at 1b. Cecchini hasn't shown anything yet, and his defense isn't ready for MLB (much less the post-season), so he'd be purely a PHer off the bench. I don't think the Mets will carry less than 11 pitchers, so i don't see how they'd have room for either Kelly or Cecchini (or Reynolds, really). It's not like I'm advocating for Campbell, but Flores' injury has left a hole in on our bench, and Campbell is currently the only guy on the 40-man with the experience and versatility to even attempt to fill that particular niche.

Edgy MD wrote: Campbell is Campbell, but the paucity of righty bats is a concern. Particularly with Lagares' injury still not allowing him to swing well, with Flores likely not available, and with only 1 catcher on the bench. Terry is not going to want to go into the post-season without a bat that can face a lefty late in the game. If it's not Campbell, it's Reynolds.