metsmarathon

y'know, it doesn't seem to play out that way. last year: beltran - 5.21 wright - 4.64 delgado - 3.11 reyes - 2.11 ... pedro - 0.60 bannister - 0.53 glavine - 0.46 ... wagner - 3.52 sanchez - 1.95 heilman - 1.58 and actually, if i counted their offensive contributions as well, pedro and glavine would both be in the negatives! the reasoning being that by holding your opponent scoreless early in the game, you're not really contributing to your team winning so much as merely holding serve. at least, that's the best i could make of it. to clarify, if the score is tied at the start and end of an inning, the win expectancy should remain virtually unchanged. only once you have a run differential does the win probability change after a scoreless inning.

and yancy, take the info from the game graphs or the box score page, and the teams won't be intermingled. you'll still have to combine your pitchers' contributions with the bat into his contributions with his arm, but its a start...

and therein lies the flaw!

well, you could just go here or here and get the totals there! granted, that's just not as much fun! oh, and jose reyes is the NL leader, with a win percentage added of almost 0.800, while arod leads all players with a 1.01

combined age, lefty starters

wow! (i guess the Sac Fly was coined in 1954 or so, cos im using that as a marker here) but of all the players who have played since the early/mid 50's, only THREE have more sac hits than tom glavine - omar vizquel - 219 ozzie smith - 214 nellie fox - 208 tom glavine - 204 wow.

Edgy DC wrote: ="Centerfield"]If this is the case, I don't see why anyone but Tom Glavine should be called upon as a pinch hitter in a bunting situation (unless of course, he is pitching).Because Bunting Is for Losers. yes, but if you're bunting anyways, might as well have somebody proficient at it.

um, i'm not sure. for the same reason that games in april are just teh same as important as games in september. oh... crap...

way way back when i first discovered that toy, i was thinking of using it in my schaefer voting somehow, but realized soon that it was an even more tedious method than i had currently employed. maybe now that i've tidied up a bit of my work, i can play, just for fun... i also think that it would greatly exaggerate late-game heroics while minimizing early game action. but it could be fun to try.

Sele 4.1 Smith 2.4 Reyes 1.7 Valentin 0.9 Beltran 0.6 Wright 0.3

don't worry. i'm making up for it with a ridiculous 4.1 points for the guy!

http://maps.google.com/maps?saddr=41.496215%2C-81.685151&daddr=43.029661%2C-87.973432&ie=utf-8&v=2.1&cv=4.0.2416&hl=en a mere 437 miles, or 7 hours driving shea to pittsburgh is only 393 miles, while shea to cleveland is 477.

my thought is that neither could any of us, nor mr. or mrs. random drunk mets fan, get the team to play hard every day for us, nor could we maintain a focused team throughout the course of hte season, as i doubt the players would have any respect for us. and while some players can manage and coach themselves, the majority cannot, at least not for an entire season. and so, i doubt that no matter how good the talent on the team, i'd have a hard time thinking that "just anybody" can manage a winning team. well, except maybe me. i'd be great!

sorry. forgot my reference: http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy/search

i dont think the situation is specifically "6th inning of tight game against one of the best lefty power hitters in the game" but rather "men on base, close game, scary batter" and if burgos crumbles as a result of having failed under this pressure situation, then we know not to use him in the future. do we know that he's crumbeld? or has he responded well? i'd like to think that we're in a particularly disadvantaged position to evaluate it, right now. does burgos want the ball again next time out, or is he afraid to pitch anymore? does he carry yesterdays at bat with him to the mound, or is it already behind him? if he bounces back, then we know that he can be resillient in the future, and that one failure may not snowball into multiple. if he doesn't, then we know that willie has to baby him throughout the season. and that should affect how he manages from here on. and if he is able to manage effectively based on what he learns of burgos, then he can improve his chances of winning in the future. and the win expectancy went from 0.699 to 0.268 after howard finished circling the bases. now, i'd like to use this to make a point about april versus september! a home team that allows the visitors a two run lead with two outs in the top of the first has a 37% chance of winning the game. by the sixth inning, that scenario - two runs down, two outs, bases empty, visitors still at bat - the home team is down to a 27% chance of winning, and by the ninth, that's down to about 8%. its the same absolute margin, but earlier in the game, there's time to come back - because the margin of error is greater. later in the game, there's no time to make up thos two runs, so the margin of error is smaller. its the same thing with april wins & losses, and september wins & losses.

so there's nothing about burgos' makeup that willie could possibly have learned yesterday? nothing? there's no way he could have learned how burgos steps up to a challenge, or how he responds to adversity or failure? there's no way willie could have learned whether or not he can use burgos in a big spot down the road, not based on the results of his one bad pitch, but his approach and demeanor and reaction before and afterwards? there's no way he could have learned whether or not burgos has the temperament to shake that off and maybe approach the next challenging situation willingly? there's no way willie could have learned whether or not burgos hides from failure, and there's no way willie could possibly learn from how burgos responds in his next outing? there's just no way? really? i'd like to think that the manager can learn more from his players than simply whether or not a certain pitch got by a batter, and whether or not that pitch got deposited over an outfield wall. not just willie, but any manager. i'd like to think that a manager can continually assess his personnel throughout the season and incorporate that knowledge into future wins and losses. and yes, mathematically, april games are just as important as september games. but in september, the loss of one game could swing a season, and really, it doesn't matter whether that one loss is in september, or if it came all the way back on april 7th. the difference is that in april, your team has time to recover from that loss, to learn from it, to play better, and to hopefully win enough future games so as to negate the ill effects of that one april loss. in september, you have far fewer future games. much like teams can overcome giving up runs in the first inning far more easily than they can in the ninth, teams can overcome april losses far more easily than they can september losses.

so you don't believe in risking a win in april so as to improve your chances of winning in september? how is a manager supposed to learn the abilities and limits of his roster if he is not to test and experiment with his players? players respond differently to real games than they do in spring training, and its important to know how burgos can a) handle pressure and handle failure. the time to find out is now, in april, rather than in september, when you have no choice, and no margin for error.

there's a pulldown over the box scores - kinda small - that has "boxscore" in it. click on the down arrow, and you can access "lineups & bench"

Ohernandez 5.0 Green 1.6 Castro 1.6 Reyes 1.1 Schoeneweis 0.4 Beltran 0.3

LoDuca 3.2 Schoeneweis 1.7 Green 1.7 Smith 1.4 Delgado 1.1 Reyes 0.9

Perez 4.1 Reyes 2.4 Beltran 1.0 LoDuca 0.9 Wright 0.8 Green 0.8

Delgado 3.4 Valentin 1.6 Alou 1.3 Maine 1.3 Reyes 1.2 Beltran 1.2

well, we can still go 161-1...

the idiocy of yankee fans is no media creation. they really are idiots.

is there really all that much of a difference in their offensive production? because endy is light years better than him defensively. if you were putting endy in for beltran, i'd understand the consternation better. but endy for green isn't much of an offensive hit you're taking, except maybe in terms of winning a game on one swing - but endy can keep an inning going, too.