Gwreck wrote: Yes, and David Wright could get run over by a city bus tomorrow too. I think we all understand the risks of long term contracts. Well, this eight-year deal is contrasted with the benefits of a shorter-term deal and that wasn't mentioned. Gwreck wrote: I do not understand what you mean by the "trajectory his career is heading in now." I mean I'm not confident. His age and OPS+ by year 20 - 131 21 - 93 22 - 117 23 - 114 24 - 109 25 - 116 This is a good player, but as a corner outfielder, those numbers don't fill me with confidence for a great future, certainly not enough for me to invest eight years worth. Gwreck wrote: I was surprised by the comment about his only having one all-star selection too. Well, it's just a fact. This is a guy who, when the middle of the season rolls around, does not stand out in the mind of the public or the All-Star managers as among the best at his position. Gwreck wrote: I see WAR of 4.6 (2010), 2.5 (2011), 5.8 (2012), 3.7 (2013), 6.2 (2014) and 6.5 (2015) and that certainly seems to me to be a player worth signing to a long term deal if he's only 26 years old. These are good numbers, but they are, in a large part, a product of strong defense, which peaks early. Outfield defense has been described at Fangraphs as peaking at around 24. And one injury, and that defense becomes a shell of itself. And even healthy the assumption that he's an everyday center fielder is still in the realm of wishcraft. Carlos Beltran only got seven years, and he spent a good chunk of it rehabbing or playing hurt. I view him like a view all non-Mets, with suspicion. But putting that hairy bias aside, it doesn't seem altogether unfounded, does it?