Edgy MD

Chasing upstairs has been an epidemic for the Mets today.

Guillorme blows up the shift.

I believe teams have a lot of data available to them. I don't think it necessarily follows that they are sophisticated in their decision-making. Or correct in their decision-making.

Why would it be less necessary to employ shifts behind deGrom? In theory, because the purpose of the shift is to borrow from the positioning that converts poorly performed at bats into outs in order to better turn well performed at-bat into outs. And there simply isn't cause for that adjustment because there are so few well performed at bats against Jacob deGrom. Or alternatively — again, in theory — because equally distributing the amount of holes in your defense is to best prevent any but the most well struck balls from getting through. And nothing is being well struck. So why allow poorly struck balls tinkle through the massive holes that the shift creates? Edgy MD wrote: Were any of the 18 outs he got Friday on plays executed because of shifted infielders, or was the one out he didn't get the only play the shift affected? Who knows? Well, the data knows, to some extent: Of the 18 outs that Jacob deGrom recorded, 10 were by strikeout. It's theoretically possible that one or more of those strikeouts were aided by the batter trying to hit against the shift, but I wouldn't consider this particularly likely, as (a) people seem desperate enough just to make contact against the guy, and ( he throws almost no curveballs. Of the remaining eight outs, three were on pop flies caught by infielders. While, again, in theory, shift positioning could have aided in these circumstances, it seems pretty obvious that the best defense against infield flies is traditional defensing with the four infielders evenly distributed around the diamond. The circumstances where pops most typically succeed in dropping in against traditional defenses are the spots on the line directly behind the first and third basemen or in the triangle in front of the centerfielder. All three of the catches on these pops were, as fate would have it, executed by shortstop Francisco Lindor. None were in a position that a traditionally positioned shortstop wouldn't have gotten to it. https://metsrostercentral.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/screen-shot-2021-06-13-at-10.57.52-am.png> https://metsrostercentral.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/screen-shot-2021-06-13-at-10.55.15-am.png> https://metsrostercentral.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/screen-shot-2021-06-13-at-11.09.55-am.png> While those screenshots indicate where the ball came down, but not necessarily how long it was up, you'll have to take it from me that, while the third one was a flare off the handle with not a lot of time aloft, any Met shortstop I've ever seen — including Wilmer Flores but possibly excepting Ruben Tejada immediately following his broken leg — would have gotten to them from a traditional positioning, or a traditional positioning cheating one or two steps left or right. So that's 13 outs unaffected by shifting positively or negatively. Two more outs were executed by outfielders. While those indeed might have been affected by positioning, we're talking about infield positioning here, rather than outfield positioning. I'm happy to look more closely at them if necessary, but let's shelve them. So we're up to fifteen outs. One was our lone baserunner erased on a caught-stealing. No shift leaves secondbase completely unprotected from would-be stealers, so I think we can rule that as unaffected. Sixteen outs. The 17th out as we review (although the 18th chronologically) is a foul out to the thirdbaseman to end the top of the fifth. This is the semi-famous Villar-dancing-among-the-loose-baseballs putout. Let's look at that. [FIMG=600]https://metsrostercentral.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/screen-shot-2021-06-13-at-11.43.17-am.png[/FIMG] Villar has NOT shifted on this play, despite the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar batting from the left side. Again, you're not seeing the full play, but you probably remember it and it's not hard to conclude from this shot that he would have not gotten to this ball had he been in the shift. James McCann may have had a 50-50 shot, as the balls were rolling away from him. So while the shift might well have prevented this out, it certainly didn't make it more likely. So the effectiveness of the shift comes down to two ground-ball plays — the lone ground-ball out, and the lone ground-ball hit. This is very helpful. Interestingly, they came consecutively, and they both came in the secondbaseman's zone. The groundout was effected by Manny Machado. He hit a slow, high-hopper to the right of second. José Peraza, playing to the left of the bag, comes over and gets to it in plenty of time, and gets the surrendering Manny by four long strides. [FIMG=200]https://metsrostercentral.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/screen-shot-2021-06-13-at-12.05.19-pm.png[/FIMG] [FIMG=200]https://metsrostercentral.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/screen-shot-2021-06-13-at-12.05.28-pm.png[/FIMG] [FIMG=200]https://metsrostercentral.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/screen-shot-2021-06-13-at-12.07.36-pm.png[/FIMG] There's actually some ambiguity here. it's a terrifically easy ball to handle, with plenty of time to make the play. But it's not 100% certainty to get to. It's kind of got just a little bit of up-the-middle-hole-ness against a traditionally aligned secondbaseman. Maybe a bad secondbaseman makes that play 85% of the time from a neutral position and 95% of the time with a two step cheat. I'm trying to err on the side of generosity toward the batter here. I made that play when I was 15, and more than once. It's certainly usually an out. The hit — righthanded Will Myers slap through the right side for the lone San Diego baserunner off of deGrom — was struck neither hard nor soft. In fact, it's probably on the softer side of the median. But it's certainly right at a traditional positioning point for a secondbaseman, and easy enough to get to for a secondbaseman cheating two steps toward the middle against a righty. Again, I'm using the Wilmer Flores standard here. This is an out for any team deploying something like traditional infield positioning (or possibly an error). Below shows the hit getting through, starting with the centerfield camera shot, followed by a shot from behind the catcher, and finishing with three shots from the overhead cam behind home plate. [FIMG=200]https://metsrostercentral.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/screen-shot-2021-06-13-at-11.31.51-am.png[/FIMG] [FIMG=200]https://metsrostercentral.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/screen-shot-2021-06-13-at-11.34.07-am.png[/FIMG] [FIMG=200]https://metsrostercentral.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/screen-shot-2021-06-13-at-11.32.24-am.png[/FIMG] [FIMG=200]https://metsrostercentral.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/screen-shot-2021-06-13-at-11.32.38-am.png[/FIMG] [FIMG=200]https://metsrostercentral.files.wordpress.com/2021/06/screen-shot-2021-06-13-at-11.32.51-am.png[/FIMG] Also, it's two strikes, when opposite-field hitting is more likely to come into play, even in 2021. So, given that data, it's certainly not a certainty that Jacob deGrom, backed by traditional defense, finishes the sixth inning with a perfect game intact, but it's certainly likely. Beyond that he may still take himself out of the game even with a perfecto. I suspect he doesn't, but what do I know? And it's diddling over one hit. How selfish does that make me? I get a glorious game, but it's perfection I want. But again, traditional defense and perfection is more likely, at least on Friday night. Yeah, so what? It's one game. Eighteen batters worth of data doesn't suggest that the shift has given away more than it has taken, But it certainly is enough to indicate to me that further inquiry is warranted, and maybe traditional defense will get him further.

Should the shift be relaxed when deployed behind deGrom? Is it better to leave the infielders where they are, under the theory that stealing outs from batted balls otherwise destined to be hits is less necessary with him on the mound than simply making the plays on batted balls destined to be outs? Were any of the 18 outs he got Friday on plays executed because of shifted infielders, or was the one out he didn't get the only play the shift affected?

That says something that the Twins themselves are trumpeting that story.

Marcus seemingly calls deGrom, "deGo."

Villar puts quite the mix of mustard on his sandwich, doesn't he?

What a gas to have Guillorme back in this show.

Well, that's what happens when I bury a thread in a sub-forum.

Hosmer was smiling through the whole at-bat. I thought he knew something Diaz and I did not, and I was terrified.

Todd Frazier has returned to New Jersey to join the Frontier League's Sussex County Miners. The Frontier League is newly merged with the Can-Am League, so Todd can get ample opportunity to try out his French on Québécois reporters.

Too bad. Nogosek had been money all season until tonight.

Lowly Bingo up against Bowie — the top team in the circuit — this evening. Things went as you might expect, with the Ponies trailing 4-1 going into the bottom of the ninth, but not so much after that: Single by Hayden Senger Walk by Jeremy Vasquez Senger to Second =#FF0000]Strikeout swinging by Will Toffey One out HOMERUN!! by Wagner Lagrange Senger scores Vasquez scores Lagrange scores Game all tied up! =#FF0000]Groundout by Matt Winaker, 3-1 Two out out Single by Manny Rodriguez Single by Carlos Cortes Rodriguez to Third Single by Jake Mangum Rodriguez scores!!! THE RUMBLE PONIES WIN!! THE RUMBLE PONIES WIN!! Please drive safely.

He looked 100% in the postgame. Didn't even have anything on his arm.

Well, hey, all we have so far is tendonitis. That doesn't necessarily mean an injury.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=na_h6giW4oIhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=na_h6giW4oI

Wow. I may give deGrom a PotG point or two tonight.

Sheesh, that fastball was supposed to be high.

Dos. Manny, don't be a hero.

That's one. Man, Tatis stays far off the plate. You can't come up and in on him. I think Keith has about 15 words left in his throat. Let's get this done.

Deep breath.

None of our pitchers are leaving the field 100% tonight.

If the season ended today, of course he's the MVP. But right now, I'm just worried about the gamey game.

Had they double-switched, they might have gotten more than two batters out of Loogy.