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Frayed Knot

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Everything posted by Frayed Knot

  1. Frayed Knot
    Marlins' contacts have been at fielders today in total opposition to where they were going yesterday.
  2. Frayed Knot
    =Cowtipper post_id=205867 time=1759008596 user_id=166] ^^ Mendoza is a slave to formulas and pitch limits and is allergic to common sense.
  3. Frayed Knot
    Holmes almost made me regret my confidence in him.
  4. Frayed Knot
    Ride this Holmes horse 'til it drops! Well, not until he drops, but don't make a change based on some predetermined limit.
  5. Frayed Knot
    Padres hung on to win, so the DBacks find themselves the third team in a WC chase for the second year in a row. They're two games behind both the Mets & Reds but lose a tie-breaker to Cincy and so are a non-factor now. So it's Mets & Reds and the odds are with the Reds. Mets have to go 2-0 while the Reds lose at least once: odds = 0.1875 OR Mets go 1-1 while the Reds lose both: odds = 0.125 0.1875 + 0.125 = 31.3%. Or a shade less than one chance in three. So, as Harry Callahan might have said, you've got to ask yourself one question as we go into the weekend games, "Do you feel lucky?" Personally, despite all their other problems which are both real and numerous, this is about the UN-luckiest team I've ever seen. So that's a 'No' from me.
  6. Frayed Knot
    Padres (in their pastel unis) have closed to being only down 2-1 and are still batting in bottom 4th with runners on the corners and two outs vs Zac (where's my K?) Gallen. And a walk loads the bases for Tatis w/2 out. GRAND SLAM TATIS!!! 5 - 2 SDP
  7. Frayed Knot
    Middle relief is almost always a parade of new faces from year to year with only a couple of holdovers. And the one consistent truth is that most of the fans will wind up hating most of the guys on their team. And while I'm not saying any are 'must haves', I would have no problem living with Soto, Brazoban, Rogers, or Raley going forward.
  8. Frayed Knot
    Going to bottom 9 CIN closer Emilio Pagan in for the save (of their season). K (questionable call) - Pop to SS - Pop to SS ... and we're in deep doo-doo folks!
  9. Frayed Knot
    The answer to those question marks above is G-I-D-P Top 9, still 3 - 1 Cincy
  10. Frayed Knot
    Santillan in for Cincy in bottom 8 who, as far as I can figure, has pitched like nine days in a row. Out - Walk - ???
  11. Frayed Knot
    Brewers out in bottom 7 Reds go 1 - 2 - 3 in top 8
  12. Frayed Knot
    Reds out in top 7, leading 3-1
  13. Frayed Knot
    Frayed Knot wrote: The odds of one of those happening equals about 19% Only if you assume that the given outcome of any game is a 50-50 coin flip (which it is not). Sure. But trying to assign some kind of other ratio to each game is akin to entering into a subjective guess-a-thon. Do you want to factor in season record (advantage Mets) or recent record (advantage Marlins)? Home field (advantage Marlins), starting pitcher (advantage definitely not Mets), defense (advantage Marlins), or overall offense (advantage Mets)? The point is that by trying to factor in how each game is NOT a 50/50 proposition not only makes the math ridiculously complicated but also brings so many factors (and opinions) into consideration that you wind up barely tweaking the odds at the margins (and maybe not even correctly) to the point where the revised projection probably never strays far from where the generic projection (in this case 19%) was in the first place. It's a broad estimate, not a statement of fact.
  14. Frayed Knot
    =ashie62 post_id=205765 time=1758937202 user_id=90] Reds up 2-1 If all holds the Mets need to win both and Reds not win both
  15. Frayed Knot
    Marlins have nine hits*. Seven of them in one inning, five of those w/2 outs. * now ten
  16. Frayed Knot
    This NYM "rally" is brought to you by no ball even close to out of the infield.
  17. Frayed Knot
    Mets have six hits. Five came from their first nine batters of the game.
  18. Frayed Knot
    They're also T-1st in the NL in the rate at which they take walks.
  19. Frayed Knot
    The Mets are 4th in the NL in walks. They've got to be working some counts.
  20. Frayed Knot
    The nightly 'Inning from Hell' resurfaces. Nine balls were put into play in that inning, seven of which went for hits. And with the exception of the liner off Pete's glove (which coulda/woulda/shoulda been a DP) not a single ball fell anywhere near a Met fielder. We, on the other hand, are hitting directly to every glove on the field.
  21. Frayed Knot
    The nightly 'Inning from Hell' resurfaces. Nine balls were put into play in that inning, seven of which went for hits. And with the exception of the liner off Pete's glove (which coulda/woulda/shoulda been a DP) not a single ball fell anywhere near a Met fielder.
  22. Frayed Knot
    Dang! If that Lindor liner gets by there it's another run, still just one out, no force in play, and quite possibly a whole lot more pitches on Alcantara's ledger.
  23. Frayed Knot
    Not wanting to play Taylor three days in a row fresh off a hamstring injury is the given reason for his exclusion from the lineup from Mendy.
  24. Frayed Knot
    This is already as many runs as we scored against Alcantara in his first start vs the Mets [4/1: 2 runs / 5 innings; 4-2 MIA win] and more than in his second start [8/31: 1 run / 7 innings; 5-1 MIA win] So, y'know, improvement.
  25. Frayed Knot
    So how are the AL teams of interest spending their final weekend? Glad you asked. Yanx host Baltimore Jays host Rays Guardians host Rangers Tigers @ BoSox Mariners host Dodgers Astros @ Angels
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