Frayed Knot

So the Phils (vs Tampa) didn't move the time of their game today, I guess they figured they're far enough 'in -land' to avoid the worst of this storm even as NYC and Boston were getting swamped. The 7:15 start was pushed back until 7:50 due to some lingering rain but they're underway now ... and Tampa immediately jumps out to a 3- 0 lead in top o' the 1st. Aaron Nola has been put in charge of saving their season. Not that the Phils can eliminate themselves tonight but they can sure put a spot in jeopardy. One game up on Arizona but without the tie-breaker in their favor, they need to be at least one game better than Arizona on Sat + Sun. Snakes are at home vs San Diego and will start within the hour. The DBacks were five games behind the Phils just eight days ago but have run off six straight wins since while the Phils have been tripping over their own dicks. And the Phils go down 1 - 2 - 3 in bottom one.

The final week of TWiB was kind of shoved aside by the 'Post Season Picture Comes into Focus' thread. All games on Sunday are scheduled for 3 PM Eastern, no matter what time zone you're in, so that any last day drama for playoff hopeful teams will play out in different cities simultaneously. They've been doing this for several years now and it's actually one of the good ideas MLB has come up with in this century.

And learning the strike zone. And not being flummoxed by left handed pitching.

And THAT's why Pache is on the roster.

It's on the one I'm watching. 5 innings in the books and in just under two hours. Gonna party like it's 2019

Of course they won't be able to play at 12:45 if the current game isn't over by then. Both teams might have to sleep in the locker rooms, get a few hours shut-eye, and then go straight out for Game #2 warmups.

Lotsa rain expected later in the day in the D of C Re-work your lives accordingly.

AND IT'S STILL JUST THE 3rd INNING!! Although they at least finally got the 1st out of B-3

NYM hitters stranding a lot of puppies out there so far. Alvarez's day so far: inning ending GiDP w/bases loaded; E-2 on a terrible throw allows a runner to advance; yet another really bad challenge; K w/runners on 1st & 3rd/one out Did have a nice throw leading to a caught stealing

So at the start of business today ... The Padres, winners of 16 of 19 since Sept 4th, had muscled their way into the #1WC slot one game ahead of the Cubs who are in turn one game up on the Phillies who are two games in front of the Desert Snakes. But business has already started today. The Cubs finish their season at Fenway but impending weather caused them to move Sunday's game to today* as part of a D/N DH, one which saw Boston win 4 - 3 in the opener. So mark the Cubs an extra half game away from the Padres and 1/2 closer to Philly. The Cubs, and obviously SDP in front of them, Have already clinched WC spots so it's just seeding concerns for those two. Philly has yet to secure meaningful October baseball status. Padres host the DBacks; Phillies host the Rays (with nothing specific to play for); and the Cubs, as mentioned, are in Boston and will likely have two results up prior to either of the other teams posting even one [Game 2 in Boston starts at 6PM]. Over in the AL, both CLE and CHW secured spots as neither can be caught by HOU or TEX. So those two Central teams fight it out for which is Division Champ and which will be WC #3 as both are miles behind #2WC BoSox. The Guardians, with a one game lead on the ChiSox but NOT the H-2-H tie-breaker advantage, will spend the final weekend in Kansas City while the White Sox host the Rockies. Both teams have got to be thinking 3 - 0 And that leaves just TEX & HOU to fight it out for which is the tallest midget in the AL West circus and which goes home after Sunday. Currently they're deadlocked at 79 - 80 with the Astros holding the tie-breaker. The Astros play in West Sacramento while the Rangers head to Minneapolis. * Orioles at Yanx also to play two games today and no game on Sunday.

So it's blonde wigs and BYOB* night for all ticket holders? * Bring Your Own Boobs

Trade options for Nimmo trade were probably also very limited. He had full N-T protection so could have vetoed any deal he didn't like. What made Texas attractive -- possibly what made Only Texas (and probably Houston) attractive -- was that the NImmo clan had recently pulled up stakes in Wyoming and relocated to Austin. Without that side benefit of having family within reasonable reach, It's possible Brandon would have put the kibosh on deals with some of all of the 28 non-Lone Star State clubs.

Looks like we're going to have to sweep.

A win here in the 9th (or beyond) is the difference between needing a sweep vs the Nationals to escape the dreaded 'cellar dweller' label vs needing only two of three. Soto - Bichette - Benge ... and now the inning looks like it'll end quicker than it took me to type the above sentence.

Too bad Alvarez challenged a pitch that was a foot and a half out of the zone a couple innings back otherwise Cionel would have two outs already.

He's intermittently good.

Ronnie dropping names of country chart toppers.

Watch out for fourth pitch Brett!!

Watch out for 'First Pitch Brett' Nope: not this time.

See! If we had let Morabito swing away he would have driven a single up the middle with two runners on in each of his last two ABs. At least that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Error was later reversed. And now the error in judgement in pitch location to Alvarez continues.

Sometimes other voices isn't such a great idea. I mean it's fine that The Doors wanted to carry on following Morrison's death but did anyone really want to hear them without Jim as the front man?

And just for kicks I looked up the top 24 leaders in All-Time Walks to see how Soto might compare to them. The only players with a higher BB-rate than Soto are Ted Williams [4th overall but tops in pct at 20.64% !!!] and Barry Bonds [20.29%] The remainder of the top ten in Rate are: Babe Ruth, Eddie Yost!!! (the original 'Walking Man'), Mantle, Thome, Frank Thomas (Big Hurt), Joe Morgan, Rickey Henderson, and Harmon Killebrew. 23 of the 24 have walk rates above 10% with only Pete Rose (9.86%) dipping below 1-in-10 but making up for it in volume. No one on the active list is all that close to cracking the top 24 in walk totals: Carlos Santana, Bryce Harper, and Andrew McCutcheon (top three active players) are currently in 40th, 61st, and 69th place on the all time list.

It doesn't have to be an either/or situation.

On the first part I'm merely saying that one 'solution' to the issue of rewarding better teams is to seed strictly by record. I wasn't suggesting that You were suggesting this as a fix but I do hear it at times (mostly in football but for MLB as well). And while no one directly says, 'Hey, let's get rid of divisions', but if winning a division has no reward to it -- as things currently stand no AL West team would even qualify for post-season under a 'strictly by record' scenario -- then why even have divisions. On the second part: the reason I cited IL play as a factor is because when every team's schedule is 30% against clubs playing for a different prize then the type of imbalance we see can get exaggerated. So this season has not only has an imbalance within the AL (best three teams all in the East) but also an NL vs AL imbalance* and the combination of those two factors make the possibility of barely .500 (or even sub-.500) division winners more likely. So while, yes, each AL division is now playing NL clubs at an (almost) equal rate as each other division, the AL is consistently and collectively getting beat by NL clubs which gives us the opposite effect of the 'Rising tide lifts all boats' scenario. My only problem with the 'middle ground' of reseeding once the first round is over is that you've got to justify changing seeds mid-stream. In this year's case HOU/TEX would go from being the 3rd seed in round one to the 6th after/if they advance as they're likely to finish with a worse record than all three WC teams. And if we want to give this year's West winner a 6th seed from the git go then we're back to not rewarding division winners. So while it's not always perfect, I'm comfortable sticking with the idea that if you want the best slots then win your division, and if you don't win your division then you have to deal with the potentially rockier road ahead. * NL has won nearly 54% of IL games this year. That gap isn't as high as it was earlier in the season but it's still a factor.