A Boy Named Seo

Yancy Street Gang wrote: MLB Game Day says "Coaching visit to the mound."Hmmm, two out and John Maine at the plate. What's there to talk about? It was actually a coaching visit to home plate. Charlie Manuel was out to argue the safe call on Delgado at home, a killer slide to the first base side of the plate, sneaking his right hand in just ahead of the lunging tag of Ruiz, who had to come from the third base side to handle Burrell's throw.

Back-to-back 3-2 change ups. That kid's got some stones.

Maine's slider looks really really flat. That inning could've been a lot worse, man.

Cole Hamels = PFG.

That's pretty funny, girl. BTW- If you have Darryl Kile in your rotation, I'm afraid I have some bad news for you.

]Working with the radio would be finer if they were in sync, but I don't see tha that happening any time soon.Yeah, that bugs me, too, but I still dig it even as a companion to the audio. ]It's a little too much, but I guess I'll get used to it. The deserted astroturf environment is a little spooky.Chlling, even. Would anybody say chilling? Boring and sterile, but a clean display. I'd like a "No Pepper Games" sign as much as the next guy, but it just wouldn't look right.

Been revamped again for '07, with different camera angles to show the pitch trajectory and lots more data. The field window and in-game box score window are the same as previous years. On the pitch-by-pitch description, you now get pitch speed, break of the pitch in inches, and something called "PFX" (also displayed in inches). I've searched all over the internet for "PFX" and still don't know what the hell it is, though. In the middle "camera view" window, you know get all kinds of data that wasn't there before. For the current pitch, you not only get the trajectory and the approximate location where the catcher caught it, but also the speed of the pitch on release as well as the speed of the pitch when it crosses the plate (some surprising differences depending on the pitch and pitcher). They also display the break (in inches and degrees), and that "PFX" thing again. There are 6 camera angles. I think I dig the "behind the pitcher facing home plate" view best, but the default is the catcher view. The pitcher and batter mugshots appear in the top center. Beneath the pitchers photo are 5 small boxes that represent the last 5 batters faced. You can click on one of the boxes and an animation will replay that at bat. Under the hitter's pic are his previous at bats and you can do the same. In the lower right hand corner is an advertisement. I have Firefox with the Adblock plugin, so it appeared to me as just a black box. I had to google around a bit to find out what was supposed to be there. Sadly, you can't use that space to make the box score larger. MLB's supposed to add the pitch type and a bunch of other cool stuff later in the year. It's pretty kick ass, I think, and with the radio feed, it's the next best thing to watching it. Here's a screen shot from the Gameday blog:

So Tipperarymets is metsirish. DL AllStars -> metsmarathon. P-Funk AllStars -> Roblatt Fairfield Stags -> Steve J Flying Dutchman - Steve J's homeboy, right? Farney Farm?? I think that one changed after the draft. Who's that again?

Nymr83 wrote: I can't demonstrate the relationship either, but theres enough anecdotal evidence to make me (if i were Mets ownership/management) want to politely ask Mets players not to participate, even if i had to give them something extra for that purpose ("hey Carlos, you don't really want to go to the HR Derby do you? wouldn't you much rather spend the All-star Break in cancun with your wife and kids on my dime?") I don't know, it didn't seem to slow down Ryan Howard any. I'd say rest is definitely something he could've used more of, so skipping the HR derby would absolutely fall under that umbrella, but aside from Bobby Abreu, is there anyone else who stopped hitting homers after a home run derby?

Yeah, he makes mention of that ("In fairness, the statistical similarities between Brock and Pierre do not reflect that Brock developed modest power and played in a pitching-rich era that made a one-run offense more of a necessity.") but then kinda moves away from it, ending with Colletti being all happy about Pierre's higher career OBP than Brock's, .350 for Pierre to .343 in 19 seasons and 10,000+ AB's for Brock. I love Stoneman defending the Matthews signing and fluke year talk by citing his incredible defense. Pretty sure he could've pried Joey Gathright away from the Royals for less than $55 mils if he wanted some kick-ass centerfield defense.

Perez might turn out to suck, but to me he's one of the most exciting players on the team this year because of the unknown. He's dazzling when it all falls together. Maine and the gopher balls is an issue.

-An outfield defense with Alou and Green at the corners has the potential to be quite bad. I think we'll see plenty of Endy again this year and hope Beltran wears his running shoes in center. -Aaron Heilman's wonky elbow. -Paul Lo Duca. Hit a career-high 39 doubles last year and was well over his career BA last year, maybe benefiting from seeing lots of fastballs with Reyes on in front of him? If he reverts to his career norms, he doesn't really bring much to the team except for his world-renowned heart and his CitySearch-like mastery of the Long Island club scene. -I'm a little worried about second base. Valentin was only really crappy at hitting lefties last year (.599 OPS in 112 PA) and Easley was okay and should negate that (.764 OPS in 124 PA in '06). Both are 37, though, and each could reasonably drop off the face of the earth with who to fill in? Ruben Gotay? Is there someone I'm forgetting about? Hopefully it won't come to that. -David Wright. Something's up with him. The Baseball Forecaster shows he had a 4% decline in fly ball% on balls in play in the second half last year. He also had a 1% decline in line drives, which made his ground ball percentage go up 5%. I thought that might be a clue, but I'm not so sure. He put the ball in play 249 times in the second half (AB+ROE+Sac+SacFly) and the 4% FB decline from those 249 AB's amounts to only about 10 at bats. The Forecaster also makes reference to some Voros McCracken stuff that shows that the rate of HR to flyballs is about 10%, so even if all those fly balls that became grounders in the second half magically became flyballs again, we're still just talking about just one extra homer. So I don't know what the hell happened, but his 1 HR this spring doesn't freak me out any less. What else?

He made a huge mistake not going by Dick.

Not Mets related, but kind of entertaining anyway. The LA Times takes a quick look at the statistical revolution in baseball with respect (or disrespect) to the Juan Pierre signing. Quotes from San Diego's Kevin Towers, the A's Billy Beane, the Angels' Bill Stoneman, and best of all the Dodgers' Ned Colletti offer differing insights, with Stoneman and Colletti, at times, sounding borderline ridiculous, if you axe me. ]Lies, darn lies ... and baseball statistics?The inexact science of player evaluation is being changed by a new emphasis on statistical analysis, though character, and scouting, still count with many old-school types. By Bill Shaikin, Times Staff Writer March 31, 2007 If you're a serious baseball fan, you know Ernie Broglio. If the trivia category is "All-Time Worst Trades" and the challenge is to name the player the Chicago Cubs got when they traded Lou Brock, the answer is Broglio. Brock got into the Hall of Fame on his first try, as the outfielder atop the St. Louis Cardinals' lineup during their glory years of the 1960s. The Cardinals counted on Brock to hit .300, score 100 runs and steal 50 bases every year. Juan Pierre can do all that. The Cardinals were thrilled to have Brock. So were their fans. No one questioned his value. The Dodgers were thrilled when they signed Pierre over the winter, but a vocal brigade of fans objected and a chorus of statistical analysts chuckled. As Pierre enters his seventh full season, the statistics from his first six are essentially similar to the numbers Brock put up in his first six. The criticism of the Pierre signing reflects the rise of a new wave of statistical analysis and its widespread dissemination via the Internet. In Brock's era, batting average ruled. Today, the Dodgers are condemned for paying attention to the wrong statistics. Keith Law, a former assistant general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays, labeled Pierre on ESPN.com "a player whose ideal role is defensive replacement/pinch runner." At Baseball Prospectus, a baseball think tank, Marc Normandin alluded to Pierre's high stolen base total in calling him "more useful to your fantasy baseball team than a real team." Dodger Thoughts blogger Jon Weisman, slapping General Manager Ned Colletti, said the signing of Pierre had "validated the worst fears of anyone who suspected he was too enamored of pointless statistics � to make sensible decisions." The criticism spread to talk shows, to message boards and even to the Dodgers' website, where public relations director Josh Rawitch pleaded for mercy for Pierre. "I sure hope you will all give him a chance," Rawitch wrote, "to win you over." The waiver wire buzzes regularly, and players can be yours for a token fee. Kevin Towers, general manager of the San Diego Padres, looked up one day to find his young assistant begging him to claim a minor league infielder with a mediocre batting average, no power and a weak arm. "He's an on-base machine," the assistant said. "Look at his size," Towers said. "Look at the scouting reports." The Padres passed. The Angels claimed David Eckstein, who developed into the shortstop on their World Series championship team. "We followed him and saw what he ended up doing," Towers said, "and said we better start paying attention to some of these things." And the young assistant? He was Theo Epstein, hired two years later as general manager of the Boston Red Sox, at age 28. Epstein represents a new generation of baseball executives, one that challenges conventional wisdom through statistical analysis. Playing experience is not required. "You've got guys who would normally spend four years at Goldman Sachs out of college now applying for baseball jobs," Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane said. "Instead of running hedge funds eight years later, they're on their way to becoming general managers. To me, that's great. You want the best and brightest in your game." And so the analysts multiply � some with jobs in baseball, some in search of them, some enjoying a hobby, all in search of information that could give a team an edge. With a laptop computer, fans can conduct their own research � in evaluating players and otherwise � then publish it. On a recent morning, Beane took note of a website that attempted to calculate how many runs the A's could score with every possible lineup combination. "With the Internet and blogs, you have so much more," Beane said. "You've almost got a 'wisdom of the crowd' situation." That wisdom can turn intuition on its head, or validate it. Two decades ago, Angels manager Gene Mauch dismissed conventional theory by using Brian Downing as a leadoff hitter. Downing did not fit the mold of the typical leadoff hitter � he did not hit .300 or steal bases, as Pierre does � but he walked a lot and therefore got on base more often than his teammates. The data is in. The correlations have been checked. Mauch was right. "The two statistics that are the greatest determining factors in whether you win games," Beane said, "are team ERA and on-base percentage." The traditional display on a ballpark scoreboard presents the Triple Crown offensive statistics � batting average, home runs and runs batted in. The Baseball Prospectus glossary offers dozens more, from on-base percentage and slugging percentage to newer measures listed by such acronyms as EqA and WARP-3. "It seems like each and every year there's a new stat to look at," Towers said. "I think there are organizations that aren't looking at that type of stuff, and I think they're missing the boat." This isn't all new. Colletti charted batter-pitcher matchups as a publicist for the Chicago Cubs in 1984. Angels General Manager Bill Stoneman said he used OPS, the now-popular combination of on-base percentage and slugging percentage, as an executive with the Montreal Expos two decades ago. Today, the Angels employ a statistical analyst and compile proprietary information. When they signed outfielder Gary Matthews Jr. to a five-year, $50-million contract over the winter, after career highs in virtually every offensive category last season at age 31, had the Angels developed any data to suggest Matthews might not have had a career year? "Not really," Stoneman said. "It's more scouting-related. We got him to help with our defense, and he should be a big help. But that comes from scouting, especially defensively � his first-step quickness, the jumps he gets, the routes he takes to the ball, throwing arm. It's all stuff you've got to see." Stoneman said he considers "a lot more" than statistics in evaluating players. "What kind of a person is he?" Stoneman said. "How does he fit within the club? Does he play with a lot of heart? Is he a distraction to the club? There's a lot of thought that goes into it." Said Colletti: "When you're looking at statistics, you're basically looking at a resume. I don't know that a lot of companies would hire without bringing somebody in and talking to them and finding out what they're really like." Nothing drives statistically oriented fans batty more than intangibles � heart, character, chemistry and other such terms impossible to quantify. Colletti uses them proudly. "I would say, when I first came into the big leagues in 1982, it was 95% scouting and 5% statistics, something like that," he said. "Now there's a lot more factors involved. Scouting is something I put a lot of priority on. We take into account statistics and character � the history of the player in every way. "Statistics have certainly come on to play a much greater role, but I don't put all my credence in statistics. I don't make half an evaluation of a player simply based on statistics." Pierre led the National League in at-bats last season. He led the league in hits, as his supporters point out. He led the league in outs, as his detractors point out. He attracted many detractors because of his contract � five years for $44 million � but this case against Pierre is statistical more than financial. He has little power, he can't use his speed unless he gets on base and even then he can run unwisely. He has ranked second in the league in stolen bases but first in times caught stealing in each of the last three seasons, and his .330 on-base percentage ranked 130th among 160 major leaguers who qualified for the batting title last season. "You'd rather have a slower guy with a .370 on-base percentage," Baseball Prospectus executive editor Nate Silver said. "He's an interesting player to talk about," Colletti said. The floor is yours, Ned. "First of all, the man's character is outstanding," Colletti said. "His love for the game, his ability to prepare for the game and help other teammates, to help young players � I haven't found anybody that gives the guy a B+. It's all A's, across the board. That's going to be tough to measure in a stat book. "When we're in a close game, and somebody capable of stealing 30, 40, 50, 60 bases gets on base late in the game, that's tough to defense. The speed of the player will keep the defense moving. It will keep the pitcher in a split-second of indecision or loss of concentration. It will keep the catcher in a position of worrying about the hitter, the pitcher and the baserunner. "Players like that are very important players. There was a time, not too long ago, when he did walk more and his on-base percentage was higher. That's the stat everybody keeps questioning, right?" Colletti noted Pierre set a career high in walks for Florida's 2003 World Series championship team, and suggested he and Rafael Furcal could duplicate the chaos Pierre and Luis Castillo created atop that Marlins lineup. Brock wreaked havoc for two championship teams in St. Louis; Colletti called him "a great example." Said Stoneman: "If we had a chance to sign a modern-day Lou Brock, we'd sign him yesterday." In fairness, the statistical similarities between Brock and Pierre do not reflect that Brock developed modest power and played in a pitching-rich era that made a one-run offense more of a necessity. But Brock also led the league in times caught stealing seven times � probably enough to keep Beane from signing a modern-day Lou Brock, although Beane wouldn't say. "I came up with Lou Brock as a fan," Beane said. "He's a Hall of Fame player. That's all I need to know. If I had to pay players in the '60s, I would have to evaluate them. But I don't." In his office at Dodger Stadium, Colletti reaches across a table and runs his finger across a sheet filled with statistics. Pierre, it turns out, has a higher career on-base percentage than Brock, the Hall of Famer. "That," Colletti said with a smile, "is good news." * bill.shaikin@latimes.com BTW- the comparision with Brock is only kinda valid. Staying with the first 7 seasons, they were similar in AB, BB, SB, CS, but describing Brock's power as "modest" was kinda silly. While Pierre's hit 12 HR in those same 7 seasons, Brock hit 90, and had an OPS+ greater than 100 five times (over 120 three times), while Pierre's managed an OPS+ > 100 just once in his career and had a freaking 81 last year. Pierre - 4110 AB, 258 BB, 325 SB, 116 CS, 64.4% success Brock - 4238 AB, 252 BB, 334 SB, 112 CS, 66.5% success

Alright, alright, alright. After a completely dominant spring for the Mets (one IP, zero runs, baby), my dude's now listed on the AAA Zephyrs roster. Coming off a 31-save season, I'd guess he'd enter the season as the closer and might get hisself a cup of coffee this year if all goes well. He just turned 26 a couple weeks ago, so it's time to make a move. Go, C-Los, go.

Wow, a cult that controls not only the future of Alex Rodriguez, but that of the game of baseball, as well. That's heavy stuff, man. He really needs to start accepting PayPal if the movement, sorry, The Movement, is really going to get off the ground. Do you believe? Because I sure as fuck do. ]And make no mistake about it—his future with the New York Yankees, and quite possibly The American Pastime, is in our hands. We hold the power. What we do now with this power will define not only the remainder of A-Rod's career, but baseball in the Bronx for years to come. As stated before, there has never been a more opportune time for change. And judging by how far you've read today, I think we're each ready to step up to the plate—to dig in—with our third baseman, instead of against him. Choose. Believe. Rise. Three simple steps. An infinite supply of possibility. When we choose to accept Alex and support him as a Yankee, and when we believe unconditionally in his talents at the plate, the chances that he will rise as an athlete, as a man, and as a legend increase one hundred-fold. Likewise, by choosing this path of positive thought and good will over the easier, more popular, negative route, the chances that we'll rise as fans, as individuals, and as a city are undeniable. In a very real sense, our fates are intertwined with his, which makes The Movement that much more necessary. Above all things, this is a project about breaking molds, making a stand for principle, and coming together for the common good—to do the right thing, essentially.

Looks like Park's cruising, 4 K's through 2 scoreless. Wright hitting 5th today. 66 AB's this spring with 1 HR? Be nice to see get one of those Kaboom's.

Hardball Times and the guy from America's Most Wanted question your New York Mets. Lots of love for Endy, but none for my man, Feliciano, who does nothing but get hitters out. ]Five Questions: New York Mets by John Walsh March 28, 2007The 2006 Mets came within a whisker of copping the National League pennant and many are predicting another NL East crown for the New Yorkers. I can't deny, I'm a little more skeptical than many. Here's why... 1. Any aces on this team? Many prognosticators are focusing on the back of the Mets rotation and rightfully so (I'll address it myself in a minute), but I'm also worried about the top of the rotation. You know, the "ace" and the number-two guy. Tom Glavine posted an ERA+ of 115 in 198 IP last season. Those are decent enough numbers, but they aren't really ace material, are they? That ERA+ was tied for 13th in the NL last year: tied with Clay Hensley and Jeff Francis, two other not-exactly-number-ones. The THT projection system predicts a slight drop-off in ERA+ for 2007, to 111. THT did not try to seriously project playing time in its first version, so I'll borrow playing time estimates from our friends at Baseball Prospectus. They see Glavine throwing 175 innings in 2007. How likely is the 41-year-old to pitch that many innings? Well, he has pitched 212.3, 211.3 and 198 innings the last three years, so 175 seems within reach. On the other hand, over the last 20 years, only eight 41-year-olds have managed to throw at least 150 innings in the majors: +--------------+------+------+------+-------+-------+------+------+ | Name | Year | G | GS | IP | ERA | W | L | +--------------+------+------+------+-------+-------+------+------+ | Johnson_R | 2005 | 34 | 34 | 225.7 | 3.79 | 17 | 8 | | Ryan_N | 1988 | 33 | 33 | 220.0 | 3.52 | 12 | 11 | | Clemens_R | 2004 | 33 | 33 | 214.3 | 2.98 | 18 | 4 | | Rogers_K | 2006 | 34 | 33 | 204.0 | 3.84 | 17 | 8 | | Moyer_J | 2004 | 34 | 33 | 202.0 | 5.21 | 7 | 13 | | Wells_D | 2004 | 31 | 31 | 195.7 | 3.73 | 12 | 8 | | Hough_C | 1989 | 30 | 30 | 182.0 | 4.35 | 10 | 13 | | Darwin_D | 1997 | 31 | 24 | 157.3 | 4.35 | 5 | 11 | +--------------+------+------+------+-------+-------+------+------+ I wouldn't necessisarily bet against Glavine throwing 175 innings, but I don't think it's a sure thing by any means. The Mets number-two rotation stalwart is Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez. There are conflicting reports on El Duque's fecha de nacimiento; some sources (e.g. ESPN) have him born on October 11, 1969, while others (Baseball Reference, Retrosheet) place the big event four years eariler. We may never know how old he is, unless we can get some Carbon-14 dating measurements on the guy, or simply chop him in half and count the rings. THT's projection for Hernandez is an ERA of 4.05 (i.e. above average), and his estimated work load is 145 IP. The 145 IP seems high to me; El Duque has thrown 162.3, 128.3, 84.7 innings in the last three seasons. Still, even if Glavine and Hernandez meet their performance and playing time estimates, we're talking about a combined ERA of 4.00 (in a park favorable to pitchers) in 320 IP, which doesn't look too good for the #1/#2 combo of a pennant contender. 2. And what about the back of the rotation? Well, after Glavine and Hernandez, we come to John Maine, Oliver Perez and, probably, at this point, Mike Pelfrey. Maine made 15 starts for the Mets last year and put up quite respectable numbers, thank you: IP ERA W-L H/9 HR/9 K/9 K/B Maine,J 90 3.60 6-5 6.9 1.5 7.1 2.15 Here's the trouble: that Ryanesque hit rate (fewer than seven hits per nine innings) does not seem to be supported by a high strikeout rate. In fact, Maine's BABIP was a paltry .228, and you can be pretty sure that'll be going up in 2007. The home run rate looks pretty worrisome too. THT projects him to an ERA of 4.20, which looks a little too good to me, but what do I know? Next we come to Oliver Perez, who has broken the heart of many a fantasy baseball player over the last few years. Perez got everybody excited back in 2004 when, as a 22-year-old, he went 12-10 with a 2.98 ERA and 239 strikeouts in 196 innings of work. Since then Perez had managed to put up the following line: Oliver Perez, 2005-2006 +-------+------+-------+------+------+------+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/BB | W | L | +-------+------+-------+------+------+------+ | 215.7 | 6.21 | 1.711 | 1.4 | 10 | 18 | +-------+------+-------+------+------+------+ Yuck. Of course, the Mets are hoping that Perez can find some of the old magic, but if I were a betting man, I think I'd put my money elsewhere. By the way, there have been 22 major league players named Perez, but only three players named Oliver. The battle for the fifth starter gig appears to be over, with Mike Pelfrey emerging victorious over his rivals, Chan Ho Park and Aaron Sele, both of whom seem destined for the bullpen. Pelfrey seems to me a reasonable choice for fifth starter: despite a rocky MLB debut last year (ERA 5.48 in four starts), he has a solid minor league track record and is young enough (23 this year) to do some on-the-job learning. THT projects him to post an ERA of 5.09, which is not so bad for a fifth starter these days. 3. Will the bullpen be the National League's best again? In a word, idoubtit. The Mets bullpen in 2006 had the best ERA, by far, of any National League team. Check out the stats of the Mets top relievers (ranked by IP): Name IP ERA Heilman 87 3.62 Oliver 81 3.44 Wagner 72.1 2.24 Bradford 62 2.90 Feliciano 60.1 2.09 Sanchez 55.1 2.60 That's one fine bullpen performance, folks, but it's one that I don't think the Mets can repeat in 2007. First of all, Oliver and Bradford have moved on to other teams. The 30-year-old Feliciano, who had compiled a career ERA of 4.21 in 73 IP previous to last season, can be expected to suffer some serious regression this year. THT projects his ERA at 4.62, which gives you an idea of how flukey the system sees Feliciano's 2006. Next we come to Duaner Sanchez: you'll recall that Sanchez was having a fine season before getting injured in a car crash during the 2006 season. Willie Randolph and the Mets brass were none too happy when Sanchez showed up at Spring Training 15 pounds overweight. Then Randolph got really annoyed with Sanchez for hitting the snooze button on his alarm clock a few too many times. A recent MRI has shown that Sanchez will need another surgery on his shoulder, which should give him plenty of time to sleep in over the next few months. In any case, he won't be a factor in the Mets 'pen for at least the first half of the season, maybe more. Another key piece of the bullpen puzzle is Guillermo Mota, whom the Mets acquired from the Indians late in the season last year. Mota went 3-0 for the Mets, giving up just two runs in 18 innings pitched. Good work, but possibly tainted by performance-enhancing drugs, since Mota was subsequently suspended for violating MLB's drug policy and will miss the first 50 games of the 2007 season. Newcomers to the Mets bullpen include Scott Schoeneweis (lifetime ERA 5.01) and Ambiorix Burgos, he of the 100+ mph fastball. Burgos' arm is certainly very interesting, but it's all potential at this point, since he seems to have little idea of where his pitches are going. Burgos is the first-ever major league player with the name Ambiorix. As previously mentioned, Sele and Park will probably be long men, at least to start the season. I think it's inevitable that the Mets bullpen takes a huge step back this year. 4. Is this offense great, or what? It's easy to look at the Mets lineup and be seduced: they have a fantastic core of exciting young players that seem to have limitless potential. I don't need to tell you about Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes and David Wright. We're talking three superstars here�well, maybe that's jumping the gun on the youngsters a little, but not by much. Add with Carlos Delgado, a bona fide offensive force at first base, and the core of this offense is very solid indeed. But, three or four offensive standouts does not a lineup make, so what about the other positions? The Mets were 15th in the NL last year in production by second basemen, as measured by OPS. Their problem was giving around 300 at-bats to Kaz Matsui, Chris Woodward and Anderson Hernandez, before settling on Jose Valentin, who OPS'd 867 while playing second base. That was quite a bit better than expected for the veteran second baseman, and the Mets shouldn't be counting on getting an 850+ OPS from Valentin this year. To steal a line from Lou Piniella, that would be like finding a wallet on Friday and then counting on finding another one on Monday. Instead, the Mets should concentrate on finding a platoon partner (Damion Easley might work) for Valentin, who has always had trouble hitting lefties: 559 OPS against them in 2006, 585 career. Doesn't Shawn Green seem a lot older than 34? I dunno, maybe it's because his decline phase started in earnest several years ago, when he was only 30, but he sure seems older than 34. Green put up an OPS of only 776 in 2006, his first below-average performance in 10 years. When you consider he's playing an offense-first position in the field, that 776 looks even worse. Now, a lot of folks are wondering if and when Lastings Milledge will take over in right for Green, but THT's projections see an even better alternative: Endy Chavez. Now, essentially all of Chavez's advantage comes from the fielding projection, +10 runs for Endy, -13 for Shawn, so I generally take that with a grain of salt. But there is another piece of information that has not been incorporated into the projections and which favors Chavez: Shawn Green has absolutely the worst outfield arm of anybody in the major leagues. And Chavez has a great arm, although he didn't have enough playing time to enter into the study linked above. Usually a good or rotten arm is not that big a deal, but the difference between these two, just in terms of outfield throwing, was about two wins in 2006 (extrapolating Endy to a full season). That's a lot, and even if you throw in a good bit of regression to the mean in projecting for this season, it's still a lot. Now, I'm not saying that Chavez should necessarily play ahead of Green or Milledge, but I'm sure that the Mets are very happy to have a backup plan in case Green and Milledge both falter. 5. Any other thoughts? The Mets ran away with the NL East last year, winning 97 games and making it all look easy. However, keep in mind that the Mets' run differential, 834 scored and 731 allowed, suggest that they should have won 91 games. Still good enough to win the division, but not in a cake walk. Furthermore, as Dave Studeman wrote here, the 2006 Mets caught lightning in a bottle, not once, but several times, getting better-than-expected performances from Bradford, Feliciano, Valentin and several others. That's unlikely to happen again in 2007, and the Mets' bottom line will suffer for it. Do I think the Mets will walk away to a division crown again this year? No, I don't think it will be so easy. However, I still haven't mentioned the name of one of the most famous Mets of all: some guy named Pedro. Here's the ace we were looking for; unfortunately he's recovering from shoulder surgery and is currently expected back sometime when the fish are jumpin' and the cotton is high. Getting Martinez back for five to seven starts late in the season, though, might be just what the doctor ordered to fend off the Phillies or Braves, who are looking to take a division crown of their own. John Walsh dabbles in baseball analysis in his spare time. He welcomes questions and comments via e-mail. Do you have a general question or comment for one of THT's writers? Send it in to our weekly mailbag We also welcome unsolicited op-ed pieces of approximately 500 words for consideration. We reserve the right to edit for length, clarity and consistency of style. Please include your whole name and location to be considered. If you have a comment about this specific article, please email the writer.

Yancy- Thanks for the heads up. My install guy told me the same regarding the phone line. I would need it for PPV, but not for the Extra Innings package. I have a phone line connected to the receiver in the living room anyway, but not to the receiver in the bedroom. The install guy said it wouldn't matter for the baseball package, I'd be able to watch it in the bedroom just the same and it looks like he's right. II ordered Extra Innings online and now if I go to channel 217 (the order Extra Innings channel), it says in my bedroom (no phone line) that I am authorized for that programming. I don't know about any new or different features, but it looks like I'm okay from that room. You might want to check that channel, too.

Franco singles to score Lo Duca and Valentin then doubles Franco in from first to make it 2-0 so far in the second. Valentin's having a pretty nice spring.

Nomar's wearing the traditional wool Dodger hat and has painted or colored in the white swath over the ears that the spring training MLB hats have so no one will notice. Penny's got the regular blue regular season lid so far.

Wonder if Duaner pushed himself too much at the wrong time to prove he's not a lazy ass?

I'm positive he could do it and be great at it. I just don't want him to get too unselfish and change his approach. This is the first of the Mets I've seen this year, so I'm probably worried tonight over nothing.

Beltran doubles to deep center, Reyes scores, Wright out at home. 6-1 Mets. "Tightening things up."

Wright singles to right following Reyes' third hit and Vin tells us that Wright is showing his manager that he can hit to the right side behind his runner, having done so three times tonight. That's not bad, is it? Is it?