Mex17

So here is another way of saying the same thing over again, but they way that I am going to say it (hopefully) will really bring it into focus because I am going to avoid hyperbole and just stick to what is known. -We know that the team has failed on the field. -We know that Jeff Wilpon has acknowledged this and we know that he has stated that he prefers better results. -We know what the team needs in order to fill the gaps on the roster and improve. (A righthanded power bat in order to mitigate the absence of Cespedes in the short term and to supplement Cespedes in the longer term. A legitimate major league starting catcher who has actually hit and also provide defense at the catching position. Multiple legitimate bullpen arms with successful track records in the later innings.) -We know the identities of players who are free agents now who would satisfy these needs and we know the general market value of those players on the open market. -We know that we are sitting on a reigning CY Young award winner in his prime. We know that the team controlls the player for two more years, but after that he is able to walk while he still would have good years left in him and that this would be a giant public relations hit if he continues to pitch at a high level when this happens. -We know that we have other pitchers as well who have shown that they can perform on a high level and we still control them as well for various periods of time. -We know the general market value of those pitchers. We also know that other teams in the past have been able to "buy out" years of free agency for still controllable players before they hit the open market via deals that provide guaranteed money to the players before free agency in excess of what they would get in arbitration while still being "team friendly" in the sense that the payout is to some degree below open market value. -We know how to add. In this instance we know how to add together the cumulative salaries of all of the above (needs + players who meet those needs + market value of the players who meet our needs + slightly under market value of the players that we need to retain prior to them hitting free agency). We are assuming that Jeff Wilpon also knows how to add. If Jeff Wilpon (and his Dad) are sincere about what he wants accomplished for this baseball franchise, is able to perform arithmetic, and sees that he is unwilling or unable to finance what the arithmetic tells him, the (once again) the next step should be obvious to all parties involved.

I know, we go over this year after year after year, but the fact remains that it is absolutely reasonable for a New York team to be in that range if they need to be in order to contend. Here are the moves that BVW can do this year to put a good team on the field at that price. . . -Do the pitcher extensions that I discussed in the other thread. 5 years/$130 million for deGrom ($26 million AAV). 3 years/$25 million for Wheeler ($7 million for 2019, $8.5 for 2020, $9.5 for 2021). One year/$7 million for Syndergaard (to keep him on par salary wise for 2019 with Wheeler, thereby making him happy and still amenable to a longer term extension down the road. . .you still control him for 2020 and 2021). -Donaldson: 3 years/$58 million ($22 for 2019, $20 for 2020, $16 for 2021) -Grandal: 3 years/$45 million ($15 AAV) -Familia: 3 years/$30 million ($10 AAV) -Miller: 2 years/$22 million ($11 AAV) -Trade Frazier. -Non tender d'Arnaud. 2019 Payroll Cespedes - $29 million deGrom - $26 million Donaldson - $22 million Grandal - $15 million Bruce - $14 million Miller - $11 million Familia - $10 million Lagares - $9 million Swarzak - $8.5 million Vargas - $8 million Wheeler - $7 million Syndergaard - $7 million Flores - $4.7 million (arbitration estimate) Conforto - $4.4 million (arbitration estimate) Matz - $3 million (arbitration estimate) Plawecki - $1.3 million (arbitration estimate) Rosario - $600,000 (pre arbitration) McNeil -$600,000 (pre arbitration) Nimmo - $600,000 (pre arbitration) Lugo - $600,000 (pre arbitration) Gsellman - $600,000 (pre arbitration) Rivera - $600,000 (pre arbitration) remaining 3 spots on the 25 man - $600,000 x 3 = $1.8 million If my arithmetic is correct, that puts us right in the $185 million sweet spot. Not over the luxury tax threshold, not even brushing right up against it, but in the range where at team with "New York" on it's road jerseys ought to be. It's completely reasonable.

I don't like it. You have a freshly minted Cy Young award winner in his prime right now. This is no time to be waiting for 19 year old prospects to bloom. I am all for that when the time is right, but this is not that time. They need to be playing to win now.

https://findingyourway.com/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNRw3ZzYN9s

5 years/$130 million for deGrom ($26 million AAV). 3 years/$25 million for Wheeler ($7 million for 2019, $8.5 for 2020, $9.5 for 2021). One year/$7 million for Syndergaard (to keep him on par salary wise for 2019 with Wheeler, thereby making him happy and still amenable to a longer term extension down the road. . .you still control him for 2020 and 2021). Let it ride in arbitration for Matz. You then have all four under control for the next three years with your current Cy Young award winner locked up for an additional two after that.

deGrom is easy. 5 years, somewhere between $130-$150 million. Just get it done. I've read too that BVW wants to extend Wheeler as well. I makes sense to me to buy out two years, keep him locked up through his age 31 season, and see what happens. What I do not know are three things. . . -His estimated 2019 arbitration number -His free market value -What the point in between those two figures ought to be Some of you I believe subscribe to and frequent websites that dole out that kind of info. Would you care to chime in on Wheeler?

Benjamin Grimm wrote: The relationship between Boras and the Mets isn't a major factor. If I agreed with that, then I would not have started the thread. I suppose that goes without saying. Benjamin Grimm wrote: The key thing is that virtually all of Boras' clients test free agency, and there's no reason to think that it will be any different with Conforto. True, but two things. . . a) Will the Mets get a fair shake to bid on him once that happens or will the Boras's mistrust (possibly dislike) of BVW and the Wilpons render that as not being possible? Do they want that type of uncertainty with a player that would otherwise be a young building block?

The reason why I bring it up is because of the elephant in the room that no one really wants to acknowledge yet. He is the one guy left on the team who has Boras as an agent and the relationship between Boras and the Mets does not look like it is getting any better. Maybe you let him play out this year, hope he has a really good one, and flip him next winter when there is still two years of team control left? Or at the trade deadline if the Mets are out of it again? Start 2019 with Conforto/Lagares/Nimmo in the outfield with Bruce at first base with the view of getting to the beginning of 2020 at the very latest with a Cespedes/Nimmo/Bruce outfield with Alonso at first.

I would think that most if not all of the teams that need a third basemen would be interested but wary based upon Donaldson's statistically off/injury compromised season combined with the possibility of Arenado hitting the market in a year. Am I nuts for thinking that this (Arenado specifically) affects Donaldson's overall market? At the same time, you have to deal with the here and now and try to make your team better for next year this offseason. There is no guarantee that Colorado will not extend Arenado in the same way they kept Blackmon off the market. It's a dilemma. I remember when the Mets signed Bonilla when they could have waited a year and bid on Bonds instead. Steroids aside, what would have been better for the Mets in the long run? (And yes, I know that Bonds probably would have gone to the Giants anyway because that is where he is from and because Mays is his godfather. . .just saying though.)

2019 (age 33 season): guaranteed 2020 (age 34 season): team option - you keep him if you cannot get Arenado 2021 (age 35 season): option year kicks in after minimum number of PAs 2022 (age 36 season): same as 2021 Salary commesurate with market value for someone who was playing at MVP caliber level as recently as 2015-2016. See if this is palatable to the player if he goes unsigned late into the offseason. In the meantime, focus on getting your catcher and two impact relief pitchers.

Ceetar wrote: You really got be high on catcher metrics to want Maldonado. I'll keep Plawecki's bat, thanks. Maybe you can give it back to him?

Meh. Might as well go with Plawecki and Nido, and I don't want to do that. We need someone who can hit.

Arenado > Donaldson > Frazier Therefore, two questions. . . a) Can you realistically move Frazier (and his $9 million)? Can you get Donaldson on a one year (or one year with a team option) makegood deal so that you leave your options open for a potential Arenado run next year?

It looks like Jim Riggleman has some sort of an inside track, but I put together a list of other names anyway. All of these have managed in the NL semi-recently (that seems to be the requirement). . . Fredi Gonzalez (currently Marlins 3rd base coach) Pete Mackanin Ryne Sandberg Matt Williams (currently A's 3rd base coach) Dale Sveum Mike Matheny Walt Weiss

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: he probably won't ever be the best-- or second- or third-best-- player on a WS contender. Let's put that through it's paces. 2019 Mets (if it goes a certain way) -1st Best Player: Machado -2nd Best Player: deGrom -3rd Best Player: Conforto -4th Best Player: Syndergaard I'm not guaranteeing that. You would actually have to get Machado and Conforto/Syndergaard would have to stay healthy and consistently hit their potential high-end performance levels over an entire season. You need solid complimentary role players on a championship team. Realmuto could be one of those if other pieces fall into place (along with the likes of Nimmo/Bruce/Rosario/whoever they get for the bullpen). Often times the complimentary players are the ones who come though in the big moments in a championship season. Just look at Steve Pearce just last week!

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Catchers his age tend to start breaking down within a year or two That can just as easily mean that we potentially benefit from the last two years he has left at his peak and then let him walk. It's a little hard for me to believe that he is going to start his downslide when he has two years of team control remaining. It all depends on the price, I agree with that much. If the rest of MLB sees it the way that you and others on the board commenting about it do, who is to say that the Mets cannot competitively bid?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Considering they're Chicagoan, have a theoretical crapton of unspent ducats to throw at the sexy boys in the tight pants, and have a dirt-cheap surplus of maturing talent from their sell-off with which to surround any FA acquisitions in their lineup/rotation for at least the next half-decade... I think it's funny that MLBTR (and pretty much every would-be market swami) is completely ignoring the Sawx of the Midway. They lost 100 games. Still at least a year away for them I think.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: these prices discussed here are more than we coughed up for Piazza for crissakes I'm not saying that Realmuto is comparible to Piazza or that we have to pay the same price for him as we did for Piazza (although I do not recall Preston Wilson, Ed Yarnell, and/or Geoff Geotz leading the Marlins to any championships or even contention). What I will say is that we are in a different era in valuating players than when the Piazza trade was made (pre analytics which take the players entire game into account, pre-WAR). Piazza got to the HOF pretty much exclusively based upon his lumber. Realmuto has better defensive skills. And BVW did say in his presser that he wants to be strong up the middle. https://www.mlb.com/news/marlins-jt-realmuto-excels-on-defense-too/c-238590080

Ceetar wrote: don't forget that Kevin Plawecki is not bad. Plawecki is bad. So is Nido. At least they are if they are being evaluated as starting catchers.

41Forever wrote: If the price is so high for Realmuto, do we maybe not give up on Travis? I have had it with Travis d'Arnaud. I'm sick of his face. I'm sick of the little locks of hair that pop out of the top of his batting helmet. I'm sick of the injuries. I'm sick of the lack of production. I'm sick of the defensive liability. I'm sick of both the lack of production and the defensive liability knowing that he was touted as a good defensive catcher who could hit when he came over as the actual centerpiece of the Dickey deal (with Syndergaard as the "throw in"). I'm sick of all of it.

Centerfield wrote: Assuming the starting OF is Conforto-Nimmo-Bruce. . . I have Bruce penciled in at first base, so that changes the equation for me.

Frayed Knot wrote: If I'm going to add an OF I'd want it to be someone who can REALLY play CF. Assuming he can stay on the field, we already have that guy. It would be nice if we can add enough righthanded offense in other spots so that we can carry him lower in the order and keep his glove in there regularly (particularly in his $9 million season).

Mike Puma wrote: Assistant hitting coach Tom Slater will remain in his current role. Don't get this part. Shouldn't the new hitting coach get to choose his assistant?

Ceetar wrote: This is probably residual Callaway stuff rather than Van Wagenen right? My initial reaction is the opposite, that BVW is coming in and looking at it fresh.

I also think that Jeter can be had. There is nothing at present to indicate to me that he is (or is going to be) a good baseball executive.