MFS62

Rethinking Moneyball By Jeff Passan, Yahoo! Sports August 17, 2006 CHICAGO � Another Jason Giambi. Mark Teahen was called that once. During the preparation for the 2002 draft, the Oakland Athletics' scouting director, Eric Kubota, said if there were someone in the class who could develop like Giambi � from a big, strong singles hitter into a powerful corner infielder � it was Teahen. And this is public knowledge only because the A�s opened their doors that year to author Michael Lewis, who chronicled Oakland�s methods in the seminal book �Moneyball.� �I�d like to say I�m past all of it,� Teahen said, �but it�s always going to be with me. It�s always going to be with all of us.� It�s been more than four years since the Moneyball draft, in which the A�s had seven first- and sandwich-round picks, and their modus operandi that day still divides even the greatest baseball minds. Considering Oakland selected all college players, with the idea they were closer to the big leagues and safer bets, it seems like a fair time to look back at that draft, particularly with what Teahen has done for the team to which Oakland traded him, the Kansas City Royals. Since they recalled Teahen on June 3 after a month-long demotion to Triple-A Omaha, he has been among the best third basemen in the American League, if not the best. In 68 games, he�s hitting .307 with 13 home runs and 49 RBIs. His on-base percentage, the a la mode to the A�s pie, is a robust .392. For the time being, Teahen has turned into everything Kansas City hoped when it acquired him as the centerpiece of the Carlos Beltran trade � and just as much as Kubota hoped, seeing that Teahen�s numbers in that span are not only similar to Giambi�s but better than his teammate Alex Rodriguez�s, too. �We couldn�t possibly be happier for anyone,� said A�s assistant general manager David Forst, one of general manager Billy Beane�s trusted lieutenants in 2002. �He�s such a good kid. We knew from the limited amount of time we had him, his potential was very high. �Along the line of things that were unfair to players, [the comparison to Giambi] was near the top. Eric hears that one just about every day. It was just a sign of confidence that he was going to be a good player.� Teahen has graduated to that level, much like outfielder/first baseman Nick Swisher, chosen by the A�s with the 16th pick in 2002, and pitcher Joe Blanton, taken 24th overall. They are big leaguers, no question about it, and any scouting director will contend that a draft class with three established big-league players is a success. At the same time, with seven of the first 39 picks in 2002, the A�s did their share of busting. Shortstop John McCurdy is still stuck at Class A, as is pitcher Steve Obenchain, who underwent arm surgery last season. Pitcher Ben Fritz, coming off Tommy John surgery, is up to Triple-A and should get a shot sometime next season. The final player in the class, catcher Jeremy Brown, has bounced between Triple-A Sacramento and Oakland this season. Along with Teahen, Brown boiled the scouts� blood. They barely knew of him, and those who did dissected his rotund physique like a panel of Mr. Universe judges. Today, the debate rages, albeit not nearly as publicly as it did upon the release of �Moneyball.� It is not so much scouts vs. stats anymore as it is finding the right balance between information gleaned by scouts and statistical analyses. That the Moneyball draft has produced three successful big-league players, a pair of busts and two on the fence only adds to its polarizing nature. �It�s hard for anyone to be objective about that draft because of the publicity it got, because of the discussion it created over the last four years,� Forst said. �Ultimately, what we took out of the draft and that book is that it brought a lot of attention to what we do and what players do. No matter which side of the fence you�re on, it�s been good for the game.� While Forst is right � anything that challenges baseball�s staid traditions is welcome, if for no other reason than to see if those traditions are, in fact, what work best � there remain skeptics. They are referred to as �baseball men,� as if those who crunch numbers aren�t. Teahen�s manager is a baseball man. His name is Buddy Bell. He played third base for 18 seasons in the major leagues, won six Gold Gloves and made five All-Star teams. He likes players who do things �the right way,� which is another baseball term that means they show up on time, work hard and don�t forget the fundamentals. He preaches aggressiveness at the plate and rarely consults statistics. He has not read �Moneyball.� �There�s so much more to this game than just stats and OPS, PMS, whatever it�s called,� Bell said. �Stats do have some influence on me. I try to look at a minimum of them. Matchups over a course of time. I do a lot of that, and it tells me some stuff. But I have found that knowing the little I do about it, the guys that come up through that system � it�s almost like they�re too passive. They�re not aggressive early in the count. There�s probably a stat out there that tells me I�m wrong.� Bell is tan, his face creased with wrinkles from scowling so many times at the woebegone Royals, but players like Teahen give him faith. Since Teahen returned from Triple-A, Bell sees a different ballplayer, one who no longer panics with two strikes. On Thursday, Teahen was facing his former teammate, Chicago White Sox reliever Mike MacDougal. He worked the count to 2-2, then fouled off three consecutive pitches. On the fourth, a sinker riding away, the left-handed Teahen extended his arms and drove an opposite-field home run. �Pitchers are pitching him differently, too,� Bell said. �He�s a threat. If I�m the pitcher and see a guy who�s a run producer, I�m going to pitch him differently. He�s probably swung through more balls since he came back than he did before he went down. He�s not afraid to swing through balls. It doesn�t have to be the perfect pitch for him to get after.� Oakland values players who have the eye to pick a perfect pitch and the discipline to hold back if it isn�t the right one. They draft kids from high school and college who show it � though high school data is far less reliable than that of college players � and instill it further at each level. Bell believes this neuters the natural instinct of a player, and he trusts his scouts will find the players with the most innate ability. Teahen? He knows Oakland drafted him because he values taking pitches � yet sometimes he can�t seem to lay off some really bad ones. He is like the swing voter, with both sides tugging at him and trying to get him to buy into the platform. �It hasn�t hurt me,� Teahen said. �In Oakland�s organization, they were pushing (Moneyball) guys to prove they were right. And at the same time, people around baseball weren�t exactly rooting against us, but if we failed they wouldn�t be sad about it.� Teahen read the book. He liked the behind-the-scenes action that Lewis captured so well, and for a while, whenever he spoke with his peers in the class, they talked about it. Now, not so much. While Teahen chats with them frequently, the book rarely makes its way into the discussion. Even though �Moneyball� is stuck on them, they�re no longer stuck on it. Because Teahen�s got a career to carve out. He�s only 24. He�s batting cleanup against right-handed pitchers. He might move to right field next season to make room for Alex Gordon, perhaps the top prospect in baseball. He wants the kind of career Eric Kubota alluded to, as wild as it seems. �You can feel success,� Teahen said, �and at every level I�d had it. For my first year in the big leagues last year, and for the start of this season, I didn�t remember it. �Finally, I�m staring to get it again. It�s vindicating� The more the Moneyball class succeeds, the more the Oakland A�s know what he means. You're so 'Money' Some of the first-round choices from the Oakland A's Moneyball class have started out well in the big leagues, and others don't look like they'll come close to getting there. Here are the current numbers for the A's seven first- and sandwich-round picks. Name Team Pick Age BA OBP SLG HR RBI R BB/K Nick Swisher Oakland 16 25 .254 .365 .481 25 70 83 68/112 Mark Teahen Kansas City 39 24 .280 .357 .519 15 58 58 37/69 Jeremy Brown Sacramento 35 25 .254 .320 .434 10 30 31 22/49 John McCurdy Stockton 26 25 .282 .321 .459 12 46 46 14/69 Name Team Pick Age W-L ERA IP H BB K Joe Blanton Oakland 24 25 13-9 4.53 149 177 47 79 Ben Fritz Sacramento 30 25 6-8 4.17 146.2 140 57 97 Steve Obenchain Stockton 37 25 0-1 0.63 14.1 14 1 19 Notes: Brown spent time with Oakland this season but did not get into a game. Fritz's numbers are combined between Double-A Midland and Triple-A Sacramento and Obenchain's are between the A's rookie-league team and High-A Stockton. Jeff Passan is Yahoo! Sports' national baseball writer. Send him a question or comment for potential use in a future column or webcast. Updated on Thursday, Aug 17, 2006 10:10 pm Later

So, what's the problem? Ever hear of "Three Finger" Mordecai Brown? (No, he was before my time) Hey, its only one finger. And the eccentric motion on the ball caused by a new, different grip could extend his career another five years. So................................. Uh, sorry. This is not funny. Just trying to find a "half-full" to this rotten news. I Hope he's ok. Later

Willets Point wrote: ]I give up. Is that because the Yankees are spanking the Red Sox now in their inevitable march to a World Championship? Radio personality Bob Grant used to call them the "New York Inevitibles". Later

1-0 Yanks after three. Lowell just hit a fly ball to right with the sacks juiced to end the 3rd. Later

Oops, in the spirit of RMPL, I'll kill the other one. Thanks, Later

I started a formal IGT. Thought folks might not find it in this one. Later

Based on the way he's hit against the Mets in the past, I really don't want to face him in the playoffs. Later

WP, I had those exact thoughts. We can only hope it turns out that way. It would be a situation that would make most Yankee fans' heads explode. Later

See long Yank IGT for updates. Later

I hope when Javy sees "New York" on the opponent's uni, he thinks he's hitting against the Mets. That fukker always seemed to kill Met pitching in key spots. That's why I wrote the following: ]Another tribute to those masters of song, the Village People. If your team is losin� the Braves they are abusin� your pitching staff; in every way. There is this young hitter, who can make you bitter, hitting each and every day. Freakin� Javy! He can tick off every fan. Freakin� Javy! He�s a boy who hits like man. Freakin� Javy! He can stymie every plan. Freakin� Javy! Freakin� Javy! All our pitchers fear him, We never throw it near him, All we do is pitch away. Our ERA was little, He�ll just smash it up the middle, And Los Bravos win the day. Freakin� Javy! He can hit with power, too. Freakin� Javy! We don�t know what we can do. Freakin� Javy! Can his Green Card not renew? Freakin� Javy! Freakin� Javy! He- beats- you. He- beats - you. He- beats - you. Freakin� Javy! Freakin� Jaaaayyyveeee! (music fades) Later

Yancy Street Gang wrote: MFS62, Are you David's grandmother? No. LOL! If you read on down that page, someone named "jmb" had similar thoughts. I guess I wasn't the only one who mis-heard it. Either that, or you hear what you want to hear. Later

Willets Point wrote: No David Cone and Mike Jacobs? SC=100 No, but I remember when Jerry Koosman first came to New York. A reporter wondered about his name and asked him if he was Jewish. Jerry asked him why he had asked. The reporter said that a Jewish ballplayer in New York could make a lot of money. Koosman replied , "Then you can say that I'm Jewish". (true story) EDIT" some more thoughts. As a SP/RP add Jose Bautista. His father married a Jewish woman from the Bronx, and he was raised in the Jewish faith. Centerfielder could be Elliott Maddox, who converted to Judiasm, as did Paul Blair. (I'm going to add those above). Rod Carew married a Jewish woman, and his children were brought up Jewish. There were stories that he had converted to Judiasm, but they were never confirmed. Jim Palmer was adopted by a Jewish family at a young age (2?), but never converted. AND - when I was listening to the radio for the players the Mets had drafted when the franchise was started, I thought the announcer said "Eliosha Cohen". I later found out it was Elio Chacon. He would have been the shortstop on our list. Later

Sorry again, Kevin, but you've been bumped from third by former AL MVP Al Rosen. Fillin' in some other blanks: 1B -- Hank Greenberg , Mike Epstein 2B -- Mike Mordecai 3B -- Al Rosen SS -- very rare - the only one who played even a few games there was a guy named Andy(?) Cohen who did it for the NY Giants. C - Mike Lieberthal/Moe Berg and the Mets' own Joe Guinsberg LF -- Shawn Green CF -- Paul Blair Elliott Maddox (see my post below) Cal Abrams (Also- someone told me that Reds centerfielder of the 40's named Ival Goodman was Jewish, but haven't seen his name on any "official" lists. He was a pretty good ballplayer.) RF -- Art Shamsky (moved him to right) DH -- Ron Blomberg SP -- Sandy Kaufax SP -- Ken Holtzman SP -- Steve Stone SP -- Ed Ruelbach (won over 200 games for the deadball era Cubs) SP -- Bo Belinsky MP -- Jose Bautista (see later post) RP -- ?? RP -- Larry Sherry RP -- Mo Drabowsky Edit: Guess you could add Norm Sherry to the list of catchers, roo. Later

I heard it the other day on the Mike and Mike show on ESPN radio. It was very funny. They sometimes save sound bytes from their show on the espn radio site. But since it was originally aired on a NESN telecast, it might be on their site (don't know if they have one). Leary was in rare form, and when he was told that Gabe Kapler is Jewish, he went into overdrive. He said something like "You mean we have TWO Jewish ballplayers? Take THAT Mel, and your dad, too." Later

In case you missed it, there was a Kodak moment in yesterday's Yankee game. Late in the game there were 2 outs, and one of the O's hit a popup to the Yankee infield. Jeter and Arod both settled under it, they bumped and the ball hit the ground. Jeter just looked down, with an expression like "WTF, man" and walked away. Neither of them immediately picked up the ball and the runner on base scored from second. (And I think Jeter was given an error on the play.) A-Rod - $25 million Jeter - $17 million That moment - priceless. Later

Too bad Wakefield is on the DL - he gives them fits. Later

Delgado 3 Beltran 3 Maine 3 Feliciano .5 Bradford .5 Later

I know. I edited my post. I blame Yahoo. Later

They're letting the pitcher bat, down by 5 in the bottom of the 9th?????? Edit: Yahoo was late in making the change. They had Castro batting for the first two pitches of the at-bat. Later

And for his good work, Willie pinch hits Franco for Feliciano. Hey, its two outs. Why not let him bat for hinmself and then face Howard, who is first up in the bottom of the inning? (shameless second guess) Later

ScarletKnight41 wrote: Keith was livid that Delgado was credited with a triple on that play - he thought it was a single and that Delucci committed an error on the play. He was a catcher. What does he know about running? (Yeah, I know. He stole home in a world Series game. ) Later

Valentin's injury was described a few posts back. I was really getting nervous in that last inning. I had to remind myself to exhale. Later

Irish, looks like it is now official. (1;36 PM) You got the scoop, young reporter. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AjnhdrbXV8ufJS1D_v_NQl0RvLYF?slug=ap-bluejays-hinske&prov=ap&type=lgns Later

You can replace an injured player for the playoffs. Later

David Wright is not having a nice day. Later