Excerpted from a recent Keith Law article at ESPN: Preseason predictions tend to focus more on the likely contenders than the likely also-rans, as no one gets that worked up over a team that's going to win 70 games, plus or minus five. Even the fans of those teams are usually more concerned about their long-term outlooks, so I've looked at five such clubs to assess how long their fans might have to wait before the teams could reasonably expect to contend. I've looked at future payroll commitments, major league assets, farm systems, ownership status and front office strategies. I also considered the competition in each team's division to assess their chances of earning a playoff spot. So, for example, the New York Mets face a higher standard than the Chicago Cubs or San Diego Padres because the National League East is so tough. (Exclusion of any club isn't a comment on how soon they might become competitive.) ... New York Mets The good news for Mets fans is that the $43 million rathole known as Santana Bay will close after 2013 with a couple of option buyouts, after which, assuming that David Wright has sailed for non-bankrupt shores, they'll have no significant long-term commitments. The bad news, aside from the running farce in the ownership suite is that the new front-office regime's turnaround hasn't had enough time to do more than make sure the ship is facing the right direction. There are a few potential stars in the system in right-handers Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey, both of whom could debut this year if the rotation has room for them, and outfielder Brandon Nimmo, who's probably a good four years off even if the knee trouble is completely behind him, but those three aren't enough to be the core of a championship club. And, unfortunately, they don't have great assets on the major league roster to trade for prospects. New ownership would help, but otherwise the Mets will have to build through the draft and international markets, which will take several years unless they get an infusion of cash. They will most likely contend next in ... 2016 I like Law's analysis of things because he tends to not sugarcoat anything and takes a critical view. The upside is that he could be underestimating things but I don't think this is an unfair analysis. I know I am fond of suggesting that a farm system rebuild takes 3-5 years (2012 being year two) but now I hope that was just an optimistic projection.