Prospect Season - 2016/17

[Edgy MD]

"I think Tim Tebow should stick to announcing and probably never play baseball again,'' Law said on an ESPN conference call. "He was the worst player I've ever seen in the 10 years I've been going to the Arizona Fall League"

Ouch. Let's hoping he's right about Rosario but not so much about Tebow.

[Frayed Knot]

Gee Keith, do you think that might have something to do with Tebow being essentially a beginner thrown into his first game action in a league which is often used as a showcase for teams to put their up and coming hopeful stars?

Look, the odds of Tebow ever appearing in a ML game are a thousand to one if not longer. But I'm not sure who's worse, the football press who's pissed off at him for committing the sin of choosing to do something with his life other than football, or the baseball purists who act all offended by someone who doesn't come up through the normal channels even one willing to subject himself to the tough road of back fields and bus rides.

[Edgy MD]

I'm guessing it's more like 30-to-one against him ever appearing.

But sure, you're looking at a guy who hasn't swum in 11 years thrown right into the ocean in some pretty rough seas. It's fine to have an opinion about how he looks out there, but it's silly to declare it to be somehow definitive.

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: Gee Keith, do you think that might have something to do with Tebow being essentially a beginner thrown into his first game action in a league which is often used as a showcase for teams to put their up and coming hopeful stars? Look, the odds of Tebow ever appearing in a ML game are a thousand to one if not longer. But I'm not sure who's worse, the football press who's pissed off at him for committing the sin of choosing to do something with his life other than football, or the baseball purists who act all offended by someone who doesn't come up through the normal channels even one willing to subject himself to the tough road of back fields and bus rides.

I think what offends the baseball guys are the idea that a football player can fail at that sport, then just jump over and play baseball. I think they feel that this suggests that baseball is in some way easier or inferior to football.

I think this is why they go out of their way to insult Tebow and say things like he's the worst guy in the universe, bla bla bla.

I'm not a football guy. I really don't get the attention given to Tebow.

[Frayed Knot]

Centerfield wrote: I think what offends the baseball guys are the idea that a football player can fail at that sport, then just jump over and play baseball. I think they feel that this suggests that baseball is in some way easier or inferior to football.

Which is, of course, really stupid logic.
Michael Jordan failing at baseball while being maybe the best ever at basketball proves nothing more than the fact that Jordan was less suited to (and less practiced at) baseball than he was at hoops. But it's not like the sport of baseball gained anything by his brief failure.

The argument some of these baseball defenders get behind is that some poor baseball lifer is being denied a spot on a roster, an argument which actually fit Jordan better as he was promoted directly to AA where he held down a spot all year despite being a .200 hitting corner OF without power. Tebow hasn't even gotten to the point where that kind of decision has come up yet.

[nymr83]

Centerfield wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: Gee Keith, do you think that might have something to do with Tebow being essentially a beginner thrown into his first game action in a league which is often used as a showcase for teams to put their up and coming hopeful stars? Look, the odds of Tebow ever appearing in a ML game are a thousand to one if not longer. But I'm not sure who's worse, the football press who's pissed off at him for committing the sin of choosing to do something with his life other than football, or the baseball purists who act all offended by someone who doesn't come up through the normal channels even one willing to subject himself to the tough road of back fields and bus rides. I think what offends the baseball guys are the idea that a football player can fail at that sport, then just jump over and play baseball. I think they feel that this suggests that baseball is in some way easier or inferior to football. I think this is why they go out of their way to insult Tebow and say things like he's the worst guy in the universe, bla bla bla. I'm not a football guy. I really don't get the attention given to Tebow.

I suspect they also go out of their way to attack Tebow for his political leaning and/or high-profile Christianity. I'm sure Tebow isnt very good - but Law would never say that about another guy.

[Centerfield]

It's interesting to compare the Tebow experience to that of Rick Ankiel. Now, of course Ankiel was successful in that he made it back to the majors as a position player, but was never really good.

When Ankiel started over again, he was painted as heroic. A story in perseverance. A feel good story that made you want to root for him.

Tebow, is lambasted. Some, it seems, are actively rooting against him. Like I said, I don't know enough about Tebow to know if he is generally unlikeable, but to me he seems a decent enough guy, no scandals, no wife beating, no drugs. Why not give him a chance?

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: Centerfield wrote: I think what offends the baseball guys are the idea that a football player can fail at that sport, then just jump over and play baseball. I think they feel that this suggests that baseball is in some way easier or inferior to football. Which is, of course, really stupid logic. Michael Jordan failing at baseball while being maybe the best ever at basketball proves nothing more than the fact that Jordan was less suited to (and less practiced at) baseball than he was at hoops. But it's not like the sport of baseball gained anything by his brief failure. The argument some of these baseball defenders get behind is that some poor baseball lifer is being denied a spot on a roster, an argument which actually fit Jordan better as he was promoted directly to AA where he held down a spot all year despite being a .200 hitting corner OF without power. Tebow hasn't even gotten to the point where that kind of decision has come up yet.

All fair. But I imagine there is some sort of "Who's *$#! is bigger" type of competition between guys who cover football and guys who cover baseball. Or any sport for that matter. And they would be mortified if an athlete failed at another sport, then came on and succeeded at their's.

Again, all really stupid logic, but I imagine there is some of that out there.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Nymr83 wrote: Centerfield wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: Gee Keith, do you think that might have something to do with Tebow being essentially a beginner thrown into his first game action in a league which is often used as a showcase for teams to put their up and coming hopeful stars? Look, the odds of Tebow ever appearing in a ML game are a thousand to one if not longer. But I'm not sure who's worse, the football press who's pissed off at him for committing the sin of choosing to do something with his life other than football, or the baseball purists who act all offended by someone who doesn't come up through the normal channels even one willing to subject himself to the tough road of back fields and bus rides. I think what offends the baseball guys are the idea that a football player can fail at that sport, then just jump over and play baseball. I think they feel that this suggests that baseball is in some way easier or inferior to football. I think this is why they go out of their way to insult Tebow and say things like he's the worst guy in the universe, bla bla bla. I'm not a football guy. I really don't get the attention given to Tebow. I suspect they also go out of their way to attack Tebow for his political leaning and/or high-profile Christianity. I'm sure Tebow isnt very good - but Law would never say that about another guy.

Oh, FFS. It's not an antiChristian thing. If there's something people resent about him, it's the attention he gets relative to his actual talent (football OR baseball). He's famous for being That Good-Looking Christian Guy Who Is Not Good Enough For The Pros (But Somehow Manages To Stay In The Public Eye Anyway). He's a Wholesomeseeming Kardashian.

[Frayed Knot]

Baseball America:
Rosario = #8
Dom Smith = #71
Justin Dunn = #100

[Frayed Knot]

Need a breakdown of Thomas Nido's leap forward offensively last season? Sure, go ahead and give it to me
If he keeps this up in AA then none of us will be heartbroken.

[Frayed Knot]

BP whips out their 2017 list, slotting Rosario at #8 and LHP Thomas Szapucki at 69th while leaving off Smith entirely. But then they really buck the trend on the previously thought of as 'low-ceiling' Robert Gsellman by tabbing him as their #17 prospect.

Specifically on Gsellman: "... the stuff has jumped this year. The fastball looks plus-plus now, a sinker with hard, late movement in the mid-90s, the slider is a potential plus pitch and the curve has tightened up as he's thrown the hard slider more. That's a 70 FB / 60 SL / 55 CU from a guy that is already in the majors. The proximity, floor, and still remaining upside if the command and change find another half grade makes him one of the best pitching prospects in baseball for us."

Only 3 pitchers are higher on their list (#1 Alex Reyes of StL, #10 Tyler Glasnow w/Pitt, #14 Lucas Giolito now w/the ChiSox) all of whom also pitched in MLB for short stints during 2016 so it's not like Gsellman has an experience jump on any of them and none can compete with him on the hair.

[Frayed Knot]

In an effort to get a jump on next year's top prospects, BA identified potential 'Breakout' stars who, while not yet on this year's Top-100, could be the ones shooting up next year's lists.
They name two players per position, one each from the upper minors (High-A, AA, AAA) and from the lower minors (Low-A + Rookie/Short-season/Summer). Two Mets included in that group.

[u:2mvn2ndq]First base - lower minors: Pete Alonso (Mets)[/u:2mvn2ndq]
The lower minors are thin on first base prospects because typically the future first basemen of the major leagues begin their careers at other positions. Injuries slowed Alonso in college, but the Mets’ second-round pick has the combination of power and hitting ability that should lead to success at higher levels.

[u:2mvn2ndq]Shortstop - lower minors: Andres Gimenez (Mets)[/u:2mvn2ndq]
Our top three prospects on the 2015 international market were Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), Gimenez and Leody Taveras (Rangers). Guerrero and Taveras are both top 50 prospects and rank No. 1 in their organizations. Gimenez hasn’t received the same attention because he’s yet to debut in the United States, but his talent is on par with his fellow elite 2015 signings. Gimenez had a terrific Dominican Summer League season and should shoot up prospect rankings next year with an exciting blend of tools and baseball skills.

[Edgy MD]

So how about that huge rating on Gsellman followed by a kick in the balls with Smith? Prospectus totally ignores the consensus of their peers. They stand alone and give not a shit.

[Edgy MD]

Does Baseball America consider Gsellman graduated or just not good enough?

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: Does Baseball America consider Gsellman graduated or just not good enough?

Well pretty much all these ratings sites use the standard rookie classification as their cut-off and, if you flip back to page 1 of this here thread, you'll see that BA had Gsellman as their #7 among NYM prospects. They just don't have him making their overall Top-100, nor did Mayo at MLB.com, nor did Law/ESPN. John Sickels however did (list also out today) although, at #59, he was so not quite so bullish as BP despite adding in his comments section that he believed that "what we saw late in the year was not a fluke" and that this higher than most rating here "may prove too pessimistic."

[Frayed Knot]

With all the big lists now out, here's this year's consensus top twenty via a combined mash-up of five of the major ones (MLB, ESPN, BP, BA, Sickels)

#1 Andrew Benintendi - OF Boston - Highest Level Played thru 2016 = MLB
Would have passed his rookie status last year if not for a late season knee injury

#2 Dansby Swanson - SS Braves - MLB

#3 Alex Reyes - RHP Cardinals - MLB

#4 Yoan Moncada - 2B? - White Sox - MLB

#5 - Amed Rosario - SS NYM - AA

#6 - Gleyber Torres - SS NYY - High A
Biggest prize from the Cubs in the late season Aroldis Chapman deal

#7 - Austin Meadows - OF Pirates - AAA

#8 - J.P. Crawford - SS Phillies - AAA

#9 - Victor Robles - OF Nationals - High A

#10 - Eloy Jimenez - OF Cubs - Low A

#11 - Cody Bellinger - 1B Dodgers - AAA
Son of short-term (1999-2002) MFY pitcher Clay

#12 - Rafael Devers - 3B Red Sox - High A

#13 - Lucas Giolito - RHP White Sox - MLB

#14 - Tyler Glasnow - RHP Pirates - MLB

#15 - Brendan Rodgers - SS Rockies - Low A

#16 - Ozzie Albies - SS Braves - AAA
Another Braves teenager (just turned 20) out of Curacao

#17 - Nick Senzel - 3B Reds - Low A

#18 - Michael Kopech - RHP White Sox - High A

#19 - Willy Adames - SS Rays - AA
Lotsa shortstops up high this year

#20 - Anderson Espinoza - RHP Padres - Low A



Gsellman = 57
Dom Smith = 70
Thomas Szapucky = 94

Edited February 14, 2017 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

Frayed Knot wrote: #11 - Cody Bellinger - 1B Dodgers - AAA Son of short-term (1999-2002) MFY pitcher Clay

Lance Niekro and Ike Davis have made me suspicious of slugging, first base-playin' sons of short-term Yankee pitchers, the sons of Dave LaRoche notwithstanding.

[Frayed Knot]

btw, check out the prospects originally signed and/or drafted by the BoSox - 5 of the top 20, 7 of the top 31


Andrew Benintendi - #1
7th overall pick - 2015, U Arkansas

Yoan Moncada - #4
Cuban FA signing ($31.5 mil/3 yrs) - dealt to CWS in Chris Sale deal

Raphael Devers - #12
Int’l signing from Dom Rep ($1.5 mil)

Michael Kopech - #18
1st round (33rd overall) draft pick in 2014 out of HS - dealt to White Sox in Chris Sale deal

Anderson Espinoza - #20
Int’l signing from Venz ($1.8 mil) - dealt to SDP for Drew Pomeranz

Manual Margot - #21
Int’l signing from Dom Rep (800K) - dealt to SD for Craig Kimbrel

Jason Groome - #31
1st round (12th overall) draft pick 2016 out of HS in NJ


The best way to make trading top prospects not as painful is to have plenty of them in reserve.

[Frayed Knot]

Frayed Knot wrote: I suspect Law's #3 ranking [of Rosario] will be higher than others (I mean, it can hardly be lower) but not by all that much and at some point you're just splitting hairs when deciding who's 3rd vs who's 8th or 11th, etc.

The final tally on Rosario from the four major ranking lists that I follow in addition to Law at ESPN were: 5th (MLB), 5th (Sickels), 8th (BA) & 8th (BP)
So while we were wondering whether Law was overly rosy on our guy Rosy, the answer is slightly (if at all) and that if he's wrong on this guy then essentially everyone is wrong.

[MFS62]

Here's MLB.com's Mets top 30.
http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=nym

Click on the names and see the scouting reports.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

Frayed Knot wrote: the positional value [of Amed Rosario] -- most descriptions of short-stop prospects carry the "if he can remain at SS" disclaimer with them, and most don't. Of Rosario, much like Reyes a decade or so back, there seems to be no doubt that he will.

Short BP article on how often top SS prospects remain at SS.

[Edgy MD]

I question the methodology there. By taking guys who are in the top 100, you lose players who've already been moved. You're limited to guys who've had a bit of time to cast their fate. Your starting pool should be guys signed as shortstops. You could perhaps then identify "top prospects" as guys taken in the first two rounds or foreign players signed with a bonus over X threshold. This would allow them to go back and include Wally Backman and Gregg Jeffries, and even professional imports like Kazuo Matsui. Heck, Mickey Mantle and Hank Aaron too, if they want to go back that far.

The methodology also fails as it looks at total MLB games played at shortstop as a bottom line, rather than percentage of games played at shortstop. This misinterprets guys like Chin-lung Hu, who didn't fail to stick at shortstop, but failed to mature as a hitter.

[ashie62]

I HAVE FAITH IN BUCCERRA.

[Frayed Knot]

Early returns on Amed Rosario's debut in AAA: 11 for 26 although all are singles and with no walks, leading to the rather interesting slash line of .423/.423/.423
Also 2 SBs in 3 attempts and only 2 strikeouts

[MFS62]

Frayed Knot wrote: Early returns on Amed Rosario's debut in AAA: 11 for 26 although all are singles and with no walks, leading to the rather interesting slash line of .423/.423/.423 Also 2 SBs in 3 attempts and only 2 strikeouts

Keith Law has now named Amed as the #1 prospect in all of baseball.

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2017/4/12/15276224/mets-amed-rosario-best-top-prospect-keith-law

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

Joel Sherman in the Post speculates that the Mets may give up on both Wright and Reyes, put Rosario at shortstop and move Cabrera to third.

[Frayed Knot]

A bit premature on that kind of projection. Even Miguel Cabrera has of 3 singles in 24 ABs (.125) so far this season so we need to stick a big SSS alert on Jose-Jose still.

If Reyes is hitting one-something in June and Rosario still at .400-plus at the same time then maybe we'll talk, and even then it depends on what the story is with Wright, Flores, and Rivera.

[Edgy MD]

Just tuned in to the Las Vegas game and one pitch later, Amed Rosario hit his first AAA homer.

[Frayed Knot]

Frayed Knot wrote: Early returns on Amed Rosario's debut in AAA: 11 for 26 although all are singles and with no walks, leading to the rather interesting slash line of .423/.423/.423 Also 2 SBs in 3 attempts and only 2 strikeouts

Nothing like an off-day Monday for an Amed Rosario update.
The extra base hits are starting to kick as now 20 of his 63 hits have gone for XB: 13 doubles, 3 triples, 4 HR
And given the singles-happy nature of the start he was off to (see above) that's really 20 XBH of his last 52 hits overall. Now slashing .360/.398/.537
Walks still a bit low though not absurdly so and are picking up. K's not too bad (26 in 191 PA), steals a decent 8 of 11. Could do without the nine errors but aren't too worried there.