Prospect Season - 2016/17

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I would lurve it if he stuck with 99.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think the Mets will let Cabrera hold down shortstop for 2017, with Jose Reyes as the backup. Rosario won't come to the Mets until around May 1, 2018 to delay his free agency.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

John Sickels list published today. High on Szapucki and Gsellman

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/1/12/14229332/new-york-mets-top-20-prospects-for-2017

[Frayed Knot]

The requisite Amed Rosario porn:

1) Amed Rosario, SS, Grade A: Age 21, signed out of Dominican Republic in 2012; hit .324/.374/.459 with 24 doubles, 13 triples, 19 steals, 40 walks, 87 strikeouts in 479 at-bats between High-A and Double-A;
superior defender with plus arm strength, range, instincts; bat is developing nicely with increasing gap power and improved feel for the strike zone; excellent bat speed could lead to double-digit home runs as he matures, and he should maintain batting average to go with it; shortstop of the future and ready soon with multi-category fantasy impact ability. ETA 2018.

JS hands out very few 'A' grades.
That he did here probably translates to a Top-10 player when the overall lists come out in February

Edited January 12, 2017 by Guest

[MFS62]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: John Sickels list published today. High on Szapucki and Gsellman http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/1/12/14229332/new-york-mets-top-20-prospects-for-2017

Does he ever watch a major league game, or just minor league ones?
He says ETA for both Gsellman and Rivera is 2017.
Doesn't he know they already made their debuts in 2016 and were major contributors down the stretch?

Crap like that damages the credibility of any writer.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Yes, I'm sure he does watch big league games, as he reports on their performance in them in that very article. And clearly he means their arrival from this point forward.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

MFS62 wrote: John Sickels list published today. High on Szapucki and Gsellman http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/1/12/14229332/new-york-mets-top-20-prospects-for-2017 Does he ever watch a major league game, or just minor league ones? He says ETA for both Gsellman and Rivera is 2017. Doesn't he know they already made their debuts in 2016 and were major contributors down the stretch? Crap like that damages the credibility of any writer. Later

It's almost as though you need to have something to say so badly you'll take up the case of a writer's "credibility" rather than actually read the article. It's obvious had you read the article you wouldn't have missed this context and needn't have wasted anyone's time to explain it.

What's crap here is your effort.

[MFS62]

I did read the article, and since he DID mention their 2016 MLB service, I wondered why ETA wasn't something like "Already MLB" instead of 2017.
Isn't a discrepancy like that something the editor should catch, or at least mention to him?

Later

[ashie62]

Always good to have some catching on the way up.

10) Tomas Nido, C, Grade C+/B-: Age 22, eighth round pick in 2012; hit .320/.357/.459 with 19 walks, 42 strikeouts in 344 at-bats in High-A; threw out 42% of runners with low passed ball rate; needs to cut down further on errors but defense is highly-regarded overall; cut whiff rate in half and added 70 points to batting average; more power than seven homers implies;

Double-A pitching will challenge his aggressive approach but defense will keep him in the picture long enough for him to make necessary batting adjustments. ETA late 2018.

[Edgy MD]

Keith Law (Key Flaw!) has just named Amed Rosario the #3 prospect.

In all of baseball.

[Frayed Knot]

Also Dom Smith at #60, Thomas Szapucki = #76, Justin Dunn = #84

[Centerfield]

That seems way high. The kid has hit for one season.

[Frayed Knot]

He hit in back to back seasons really (A+ & AA) and was at least decent in the one year before that (his first full one as a pro). Total up 2015 & '16 and you get over 1,000 ABs of ~.304/.360/.440 all while being several years younger than the league as a whole.
Looked at another way, he lost none of his BA & OBA in 2016 plus he improved his power all while moving up a league.

Not sure how aggressive the Mets intend to be with him this spring -- start him in LV or leave him in the AA oven for some more time there -- but either way he's likely be in AAA by the time he turns 22 in June.
And we'll see how the other touts see him over the next few weeks but, good glove or not, 1st basemen are essentially rated on one thing, so the fact that he's this high means at least one (non-partisan) voice believes in the future of his bat.

[MFS62]

Centerfield wrote: That seems way high. The kid has hit for one season.

Is he talking about Smith or Rosario?

Later

[Frayed Knot]

MFS62 wrote: Centerfield wrote: That seems way high. The kid has hit for one season. Is he talking about Smith or Rosario?

My answer was assuming that CF was referring to Smith ... but maybe not.

As for Rosario, I suspect most or all of the usual ratings sites are going to have him top-15-ish or better this winter.
20 y/o SSs who can field and run and hit with already a half-season of AA ball under their belts are a valuable commodity.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Plus, Flaw has been gay for Rosario for years now

[Theoldmole]

How can you hit for a lofty average without having plate discipline?

[MFS62]

TheOldMole wrote: How can you hit for a lofty average without having plate discipline?

You hit line drives off "bad" pitches that fall in for hits? Ask Ichiro.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Plus, Flaw has been gay for Rosario for years now

Law did have Rosario higher than anyone last year; he him at #42, BA at #58, while no one else (BP, Mayo @ MLB, or Sickels) put him top 60.

[nymr83]

Law is always (justifiably in my opinion) higher on guys he thinks can play average or better defense in the big leagues at SS/CF because the bat doesn't need to develop as much for the player to make a positive impact

[Lefty Specialist]

MFS62 wrote: TheOldMole wrote: How can you hit for a lofty average without having plate discipline? You hit line drives off "bad" pitches that fall in for hits? Ask Ichiro. Later

Aaah, fuck Ichiro.

[Centerfield]

Sorry. I was talking about a Rosario. From what I remember, this was the first year he put up any offensive numbers.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, but you have to balance that against the whole package:
* Age -- he's been 3 to 4 years younger than his league avg at each step and will still play this entire coming season as a 21 y/o
* his rapid development -- despite essentially skipping the low-A level (just 30 ABs at Savannah) as he jumped from short-season to high-A as a teenager, he got across the board better at A+ (BA, XBHs, walk rates) and then kept on improving after moving to AA
* the positional value -- most descriptions of short-stop prospects carry the "if he can remain at SS" disclaimer with them, and most don't. Of Rosario, much like Reyes a decade or so back, there seems to be no doubt that he will.

I suspect Law's #3 ranking will be higher than others (I mean, it can hardly be lower) but not by all that much and at some point you're just splitting hairs when deciding who's 3rd vs who's 8th or 11th, etc.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Not to mention that the tools to be a productive offensive player-- quick wrists, wiry-strong frame, good hand-eye coordination-- have been in evidence since before his signing, even if the on-field production came in fits and starts. Which is to say, this sort of offensive progress has been anticipated, not simply hoped-for.

[Frayed Knot]

Jonathan Mayo and the crew over at MLB.com place Rosario as their #5 overall prospect so that makes it a bit tougher to paint Kee Flaw as overly Amed-ophilic.

Also Smith at #63 so that's right in line with Law too, although those were MLB.com's only two top-100 Mets.

[Frayed Knot]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Not to mention that the tools to be a productive offensive player have been in evidence since before his signing ...

And not just his offensive tools.

In giving a breakdown of their just-released top-100 prospects, MLB.com listed Rosario in both the 'strongest arm' and 'best defender' categories in their prospect list. He wasn't named at the very top in either, but rather as "also in the running" (meaning one of the next five) and this wasn't just comparing him to other SS but to everyone on the list regardless of position.
In the arm category he's there with a 3B, two catchers and two OFs - so essentially they're saying the best SS arm in the group. In 'best defender', only Philly SS prospect JP Crawford was also a middle IF among the top six (the others were two catchers, an OF, and a 1B/OF) despite there being 15 SS among the 100

[Centerfield]

That's pretty exciting. When was the last time we had a prospect ranked that high? I don't remember Conforto or Syndegaard reaching that sort of level.

[Edgy MD]

Syndergaard made Top 10 on some lists. Never top 5, I don't think.

Conforto peaked around 80, but he jumped through AAA to the majors in one season and almost certainly would have been top 25 hadn't the Mets tabbed him that quickly.

José Reyes hit top 5 on some lists back in 2003-ish. I don't think anybody since him has.

OE: 'Til now.

[Edgy MD]

BaseballAmerica had Blastings Thrilledge ranked #9 going into the 2006 season.

Oops.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, Reyes also peaked at #3 in Baseball America's pre-2003 poll (there were fewer outlets doing this sort of stuff then) when he, like Rosario now, was coming off a season split between High-A & AA although Jose was more than a year and a half younger then as compared to what Rosario is now.