Calling Bullshit on Sandy Alderson

[Centerfield]

So we all heard the company line last week offered by Sandy Alderson that the Mets are, in fact, fulfilling their promise to spend. But that we, the public, are not bright enough to realize this. Alderson cited to an $85 million payroll in 2014, a projected 2016 payroll of possibly $120 million, and stated that this increase in $35 million over 2 years. This $35 million represents the Mets fulfilling their promise to re-invest in the team.

I call bullshit on this.

Sandy is well aware that there is a difference between spending more money in a vacuum, and spending more as compared to other teams in baseball. For instance, the Houston Astros were last in payroll in 2013 at $24 million. They were last again in 2014 at $44 million. Yes, they spent more in 2014 than in 2013, but so did everyone else in baseball. The gross numbers mean little. Payroll numbers have to be measured against the rest of the league. Let's look at what the Mets have done these past few years:

2013 (all figures based upon the AP analysis. Reflects payroll at the start of each season)
In 2013, the Mets had a payroll of $88 million. This was good for 19th in the league. Median payroll that year was Baltimore, at $91 million.

http://deadspin.com/2013-payrolls-and-salaries-for-every-mlb-team-462765594

2014
The next year, the Mets payroll was $89 million, 22nd in the league. The median payroll that year increased to $107 million (Orioles again). This was an increase of $16 million from the median payroll the prior year.

http://deadspin.com/2014-payrolls-and-salaries-for-every-mlb-team-1551868969

2015
The Mets payroll increased to $101 million, but it was still only 21st in the league. The median payroll that year was the White Sox, at $115 million. Median payroll jumped again by $8 million.

http://deadspin.com/2015-payrolls-and-salaries-for-every-mlb-team-1695040045

2016
It's tough to predict what payroll numbers will be since teams are not done spending and have yet to go through the arbitration process. But right now, the Mets project at 23rd in baseball:

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2016/ (you have to read from bottom to top)

But as the list shows, the first 8 teams have already committed more than $120 million. So, the highest the Mets can possibly be is 9th. But after other teams finish signing players/conducting arbitration, the Mets actual rank will be much lower (unless the Mets spend significantly).

In between 2013 and 2015, the average median jump was $12 million. But if you just take the $8 million spike from the last year, an estimate for the median payroll would end up around $123 million. And this means that the Mets, even if you take the high end of their projected payroll of $120 million, are likely in the bottom half of baseball again. We'll have to see where the actual numbers play out.

When Fred Wilpon made his promise in spring training of 2013, he did not say that the Mets would spend just enough to keep up with the other lower tier teams in baseball. (Which is effectively, all they are doing.) He said:

"I don't know what the market will be at that point. But the payroll will be commensurate with anything we've ever done because we can do it. Remember, the people have to come to the ballpark obviously. If you have a competitive team, they will. Everything that was in the past, that you guys saw the pain that we went through, is gone. It's gone."

He said that if we come to the ballpark, the payroll will be commensurate with "anything we've ever done".

In the years before Madoff, the Mets were in the top 25% of teams in terms of payroll. Since 2000, they were consistently as high as 2nd or 3rd in all of baseball, and more often than not, in the top 5. Let's not pretend that increasing spending commensurate with the other lower tier teams is what Fred meant.

At least I hope not. Because that's not what we understood.

[Ceetar]

every single thing Sandy Alderson says is bullshit. He's a GM.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

The only way to get worked up over this is insisting upon interpreting anything Fred and Sandy says as a "promise."

[Centerfield]

It's not just that.

Alderson last week came out defiant, saying they are fulfilling their "promise" to spend.

“That is a $35 million increase in just two years,” Alderson said at the New York Athletic Club, where he attended the Hall of Fame press conference for Mike Piazza and Ken Griffey Jr. “The idea we’re not investing in the team, I think, is really misplaced and sort of tied up in the populism involving Cespedes.”

He then takes it one step further and says the detractors are misguided and all caught up on the Cespedes bandwagon. It's insulting to our intelligence. Wish someone in the media would see through this and call him on it.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Take it with a fucking grain of salt already. You're dying to be insulted and victimized.

[Guest d'Kong76]

But right now, the Mets project at 23rd in baseball:

I've put away my Schlagwerk mallets for the time being, but if 23rd comes to
fruition it's just sad (and frustrating).
I still think as the days evaporate this off-season that the Mets are going to sign
Cespedes to a big-money contract for a short period of time.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I think it's sad too. I just don't go around pretending to be bamboozled by the whole thing.

You know what that sounds like? Fred Wilpon. "We didnt know Madoff was a fraud! We trusted him! He promised us!"

[Guest d'Kong76]

I can't watch this right now but it's pertinent to the thread topic:
[youtube:3dqycvgv]v9Y7LDk-9ws[/youtube:3dqycvgv]

[Centerfield]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Take it with a fucking grain of salt already. You're dying to be insulted and victimized.

Centerfield wrote: I've seen this episode many times. This thread is just another re-run of what has been taking place all offseason. 1. Poster (here, Fman, but many times me) criticizes ownership for lack of spending 2. That poster is immediately criticized. Smugly. Passive-aggressively. Many times, unfairly. And when said poster fights back, is accused of making the forum "exhausting".

Well at least all attempts to disguise disdain have been cast aside. I actually prefer outright aggressive.

What do you think mods. Does this count as an "ad hominem" attack? Where is the lecture on civility and decency?

[Centerfield]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I think it's sad too. I just don't go around pretending to be bamboozled by the whole thing. You know what that sounds like? Fred Wilpon. "We didnt know Madoff was a fraud! We trusted him! He promised us!"

Not recognizing a Ponzi scheme is completely different than believing a public figure who makes a public statement. He's not a politician. He's not running for office. He runs the team and he said what he intended to do. I don't see why it was not reasonable to believe him. Do other owners in baseball do this?

I've come to realize now that he was lying. This offseason. I'm not the only one who didn't realize this until now. Perhaps you were smart enough to see through the bullshit all along. Good for you. I was not.

And now I'm expressing my frustration about it on a forum full of Mets fans. Forgive me if this is not the appropriate venue.

When the GM makes further misleading statements, I get upset and call him out on it. Some may find that interesting. I'm sorry that you do not.

[TransMonk]

Ceetar wrote: every single thing Sandy Alderson says is bullshit. He's a GM.

This. When I watch Sandy talk, I get the sense that not even he believes what he is relaying in interviews.

However, my faith is in his abilities as a GM, not in his ability to truthfully communicate with the press.

[Ceetar]

TransMonk wrote: Ceetar wrote: every single thing Sandy Alderson says is bullshit. He's a GM. This. When I watch Sandy talk, I get the sense that not even he believes what he is relaying in interviews. However, my faith is in his abilities as a GM, not in his ability to truthfully communicate with the press.

The GM has to speak. The media needs to fill columns.

The other thing is it doesn't really make sense for Alderson to give away information in relation to budget or pursuit of players. (And the leaks we hear are designed to give away specific information) There's a lot of cat and mouse going on between teams and agents.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Centerfield wrote: He's not a politician. He's not running for office. He runs the team and he said what he intended to do. I don't see why it was not reasonable to believe him. Do other owners in baseball do this?

They're businessmen, first and foremost. And they're selling a product. And they want you to buy season tickets. And that's what they mainly care about. Your interests and theirs aren't aligned so perfectly.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm not tying to be disdainful, my beef in this thread is not about your point of view on the payroll itself -- I agree, fair game to be criticized, and I also get your point about its relativeness being meaningful. It's that I just don't get being pissed off about it because you expected a partiuclar outcome based on interpreting remarks to reporters on this topic as gospel.

I don't know this for sure with other clubs but the Mets have always been vague as to their intentions on payroll. Always! I think in part that's because Fred is incompentent, takes every single matter on a case by case basis, and can barely get by despite his wealth because he owes money all over town, man. Then there are all the extenuating baseball circumstances that would also influence payroll that we've been through discussing the makeup of the club (for example, weighing a potential commitment to Cespedes when you have 2 other corner outfielders under contract etc) and the many ways to skin a cat. I'm wondering for example whether we'd have added Cabrera at all had Zobrist come aboard? etc.

[Centerfield]

Understood and agreed. I just think that Sandy is so good at this, and having his pedigree and past success, that the media is afraid to challenge him when he makes statements like this.

They're intentionally misleading. And I get that it's his job to do this, regardless of whether they spend further or not. I'm just disappointed that the media eats it up and doesn't challenge him. It is, more or less, part of their job.

If I knew or suspected that he had another move in him, I'd just sit back and chuckle. "That Sandy. Playing them like fools."

But it's also possible that they are done. Which would suck. And if that's the case, I want them to get the criticism that is warranted.

(Whole post meant as a reply to Ceetar, two posts up)

Edited January 12, 2016 by Guest

[Centerfield]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm not tying to be disdainful, my beef in this thread is not about your point of view on the payroll itself -- I agree, fair game to be criticized, and I also get your point about its relativeness being meaningful. It's that I just don't get being pissed off about it because you expected a partiuclar outcome based on interpreting remarks to reporters on this topic as gospel. I don't know this for sure with other clubs but the Mets have always been vague as to their intentions on payroll. Always! I think in part that's because Fred is incompentent, takes every single matter on a case by case basis, and can barely get by despite his wealth because he owes money all over town, man. Then there are all the extenuating baseball circumstances that would also influence payroll that we've been through discussing the makeup of the club (for example, weighing a potential commitment to Cespedes when you have 2 other corner outfielders under contract etc) and the many ways to skin a cat. I'm wondering for example whether we'd have added Cabrera at all had Zobrist come aboard? etc.

I take back what I said then. Sorry. It sounded like disdain to me.

I'm pissed off about it because I really thought that's what they were doing. And not just because of one press conference. Sure, that had a lot to do with it. I mean, how often has Fred come out and outright lied? But also because everything they did pointed to them going about this the right way. Not spending during rebuilding years. Avoiding guys like Shin Soo Choo. Getting smart people in charge. It seemed like they finally got it right. And when they went balls out at the deadline, I took that to mean "Shit is going to be different from now on."

And when Sandy comes out and says "What are you talking about? We ARE spending, just like we said. You're just pissed about Cespedes."

That just drives me crazy.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I can't watch this right now but it's pertinent to the thread topic: [youtube]v9Y7LDk-9ws[/youtube]

Youse are gonna hate Megdal even more. Here's a picture of his upcoming book, due on the shelves next month:

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Eh that's old news, man.

[Guest d'Kong76]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Youse are gonna hate Megdal even more.

I don't hate anyone, and I promoted his interview sight unseen.

[Lefty Specialist]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: You know what that sounds like? Fred Wilpon. "We didnt know Madoff was a fraud! We trusted him! He promised us!"

JTF2j0OWUi8

[Frayed Knot]

THE CARDINALS WAY: How One Team Embraced Tradition and Moneyball (and the illegal hacking of opponents' proprietary information) at the Same time

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

d'Kong76 wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: Youse are gonna hate Megdal even more. I don't hate anyone, and I promoted his interview sight unseen.

I watched it. Again, I disagree with the idea that a case ought to be built on against Fred for violating a "promise" interpreted from his remarks. I also disagree that he's running a ponzi scheme inasmuch as the fans didn't buy the Mets this year so as to assure a higher payroll next year -- that might be an expected byrpoduct, but it's not the purpose. They bought the Mets this year because they buy good baseball, and on that count the Mets delivered.

That Fred needs to do that as efficiently as he can to service debt should be plainly obvious in spite of anything he says.

[batmagadanleadoff]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: d'Kong76 wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: Youse are gonna hate Megdal even more. I don't hate anyone, and I promoted his interview sight unseen. I watched it. Again, I disagree with the idea that a case ought to be built on against Fred for violating a "promise" interpreted from his remarks. I also disagree that he's running a ponzi scheme inasmuch as the fans didn't buy the Mets this year so as to assure a higher payroll next year -- that might be an expected byrpoduct, but it's not the purpose. They bought the Mets this year because they buy good baseball, and on that count the Mets delivered. That Fred needs to do that as efficiently as he can to service debt should be plainly obvious in spite of anything he says.

Yeah, I agree. Now that I've seen Megdal explain his Ponzi scheme analogy, I don't agree with it. Not that the Mets are being operated properly. But that Ponzi scheme analogy kinda blows.

[Centerfield]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: d'Kong76 wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: Youse are gonna hate Megdal even more. I don't hate anyone, and I promoted his interview sight unseen. I watched it. Again, I disagree with the idea that a case ought to be built on against Fred for violating a "promise" interpreted from his remarks. I also disagree that he's running a ponzi scheme inasmuch as the fans didn't buy the Mets this year so as to assure a higher payroll next year -- that might be an expected byrpoduct, but it's not the purpose. They bought the Mets this year because they buy good baseball, and on that count the Mets delivered. That Fred needs to do that as efficiently as he can to service debt should be plainly obvious in spite of anything he says.

The Ponzi scheme comparison is dumb and meant to be intentionally inflammatory.

But I like the fact that he is calling out the Wilpons on their lies. It doesn't matter if it's a promise, or a statement, or even if you believe it or not. When a public figure is dishonest, I like to see that fact brought to light.

Same with Alderson. When he says something misleading, I wish others would call him on it.

I still disagree that the Wilpons being unable to spend was that obvious. Hell, I'm still holding out hope that they still do something this winter.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Frayed Knot wrote: THE CARDINALS WAY: How One Team Embraced Tradition and Moneyball (and the illegal hacking of opponents' proprietary information) at the Same time

Forgot about that! Good one.

[Centerfield]

And just to round out my thoughts here, I don't agree that the only reason one should be upset is if they view Wilpon's words as promises.

If Wilpon never said a word, Mets fans are justified in being upset. Their organization is run by owners either too greedy or too incompetent (or both) to field a market-level payroll. Without ever having said a word, the Wilpons are worthy of every bit of ire directed at them.

The fact that the owner came out and blatantly lied to the fans is just a bonus and only serves to make it worse.

The fact that the general manager comes out last week and claims, through twisted logic and misleading statements, that the team is, in fact, spending, makes it even worse than that.

I don't envy Sandy's position. The financial handcuffs give him no choice but to resort to faulty arguments, but when he presents them, discerning fans are right to call him on it.

[Guest d'Kong76]

They need to be kicked out of ownership, like that LA dude. I
ain't holding my breath for MLB to ball up and do that again.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

every single thing Sandy Alderson says is bullshit. He's a GM.

http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2015/02/are_the_mets_a_playoff_team_in_2015_absolutely.html

Sandy in Spring Training in 2015: Expectations are higher, too. General manager Sandy Alderson believes 89 wins is a reachable number and the postseason would be in reach.

Not BS!

I just need to give him credit for the one exception.

[Centerfield]

Agreed. And on top of that, there are times where his job dictates that he feed the press BS.

The distinction that I make here (and the reason I started this thread) is this:

There are times when Sandy's job as a GM requires that he say nothing to the press. When discussing future moves or potential free agent targets, he absolutely should say nothing. And the more he says without revealing a thing, the better. He's great at this. And that's why I had an issue with John Ricco's "I HEART ZOBRIST" campaign in November.

And then there are times when a GM has to take on the role of team spokesman. This usually pertains to events that have already taken place. Here, it's his job to provide facts and information. Usually these are not controversial events, and the GM just issues a statement. For instance, when the Mets extended their contract in Las Vegas, Alderson issued a statement and answered questions.

Last week, Alderson was asked about the Mets lack of spending. I think here, the line is blurred a bit. And because it may give insight into future moves, I can completely understand if Alderson went into "say nothing" mode here.

"Look, payroll is a fluid thing. I understand the fans' frustration, but negotiations are not one-sided, and we cannot set salaries unilaterally. There are two sides to every deal. We continue to look for ways to improve the team on a case-by-case basis. I would tell fans to let the situation play out, because we will field a very good baseball team, and that is the objective."

This would have been fine. It's the Alderson Mind Trick that makes reporters think he's answered the question when he hasn't. But that's not what he did.

"That is a $35 million increase in just two years."

He went on the defensive and claimed that the team is spending. That's no longer Sandy the GM. That's Sandy the Wilpon spokesman. And when the Wilpon spokesman comes out and claims that the team is doing right, fans are justified in reacting.

And then, he took it one step further, and went on the offensive.

"The idea we’re not investing in the team, I think, is really misplaced and sort of tied up in the populism involving Cespedes."

This is Sandy saying, not only are we spending, you guys are too dumb to realize it because you have your head up Cespedes ass.

Fuck that Sandy.

Like I said, I don't think Sandy buys it. I think the Wilpons said to him "We're getting killed out there. Take some of the heat off, will you." And so Sandy did the best he could.

But this would have been a great time for him to say nothing.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: But this would have been a great time for him to say nothing.

"Sandy mum on Mets payroll. Is he being gagged by the Wilpons?"