Curtis Granderson Sucks

[Centerfield]

It's a wonder that he doesn't get more grief from the fans and media. Maybe everyone gives him a pass because he is likeable. But he's terrible. If Jason Bay is the standard for terrible contracts, Granderson is not far off.

I was hoping that last year was an aberration, and that this year would be a "bounce-back" year. But then I looked at his stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grandcu01.shtml

There is a good sample size of suck there.

You can't win with light-hitting SS production out of a corner OFer (who's arm also sucks). You can talk about Wilmer Flores if you want, but if you are looking to improve the 2015 Mets, you should be starting with RF.

[Guest d'Kong76]

He'd be the prime pi�ata if he wasn't walking so much.

[Ceetar]

104 OPS+ last year.

100 this year in barely a meaningful sample.

He hasn't driven the ball but he will, and if he has a .364 OBP the rest of the time? that's good.

[Guest themetfairy]

You get no argument from me CF.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Good OBP. He's not a big problem yet.

[Edgy MD]

I think he's doing alright. Most of his production is walks, but that might change if and when the lineup strengthens. But it's better than a weak-hitting shortstop, certainly.

He's certainly not killing it, but I'm not jettisoning him. Or anybody, really, at this point.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

League average OBP is 310. 310!!

[Ceetar]

if you wanna talk about the other corner, however, he's a guy that needs to do more. He's the guy most underperforming with Murphy the runner up.

[Edgy MD]

I think they've been pretty comparable, myself.

Murphy is trailing the pack in my book, but I ain't panicking.

[Centerfield]

Granderson has an OPS of .711 since joining the Mets. He is a corner outfielder making 15 million per year. This is ok with you guys?

We shouldn't be comparing him to league averages. We should be comparing him to middle of the lineup threats.

[Ceetar]

I don't really care how much he's making, nor do I care what position he plays. I care about the aggregate of the entire team.

And I know those billion walks become runs if the other guys, like Cuddyer and Flores and Murphy and Plawecki and Herrera and Pitcher start doing their job at the plate.

[Edgy MD]

OK? I wouldn't say this. I want more success, certainly.

Last year is last year, and the salary can't be changed. That's done. The important thing is what he's doing relative to the alternatives. Jason Bay (who made more and did it when the dollar went a little further) hit his way out of the lineup and off the team. Granderson hasn't done this.

I think one thing you do when deciding on a long-term deal is try to figure out whether the guy will be completely useless if he can't perform at peak value. He, like Wright, hasn't been. Bay mostly was.

[Ceetar]

Bay also played in a higher offensive environment.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: League average OBP is 310. 310!!

.325,.321,.319 in Bay's 3 years.

[Centerfield]

Ceetar wrote: I don't really care how much he's making, nor do I care what position he plays. I care about the aggregate of the entire team.

Then you are not smart. And it is difficult to have an intelligent conversation with people who are not smart.

Ceetar wrote: And I know those billion walks become runs if the other guys, like Cuddyer and Flores and Murphy and Plawecki and Herrera and Pitcher start doing their job at the plate.

Really? The pitcher? I refer to my earlier statement.

A lot is being made of the walks throughout this thread. Even if you take into account the walks, it does not bring his overall value to anything close to what you would want from a corner outfielder, much less a corner outfielder taking a big chunk of the team's payroll.

[Ceetar]

run scoring is the most important thing.

Only Duda has a higher wRC+ (and Wright and d'Arnaud)

run scoring is also the Mets #1 problem, not the % contribution from one singular player. Yes, he should be helping more, but at least he's helping instead of hurting.

[dgwphotography]

I like that he has changed his approach since he was moved into the lead-off spot. That bunt against that ridiculous shift was a beautiful thing to see.

[Edgy MD]

I'd like to see a game where the Mets attempt about 10 bunt hits.

[dgwphotography]

Edgy MD wrote: I'd like to see a game where the Mets attempt about 10 bunt hits.

It would be the only way to stop the shift once and for all...

[batmagadanleadoff]

A coupl'a opinions about Granderson: I think he kinda sucks big time. Last year's crappy numbers weren't a fluke in my book. Adjusting out the Yankee Stadium numbers that were inflating his overall stats and accounting for the fact that he was now gonna play half his games in Citi Field, and last year's shitty season was about right on the mark. That's who Granderson is. He sucks. But he does draw a lot of walks. If I didn't know any better, I'd say that that's a sign that he's getting older, lost some bat speed, and knows it -- so he's smart enough to compensate by fouling off pitches he can no longer handle until he gets his four balls. Nobody did this better than Willie Mays at the end of his career, and everybody knows where Willie ended his career at. I'd probably be wrong, though, 'cause Granderson has always walked a lot. Even in his prime. Walks aren't new with him. And those walks have value. But those walks aren't compensating for the rest of his offense, which is invisible. So how valuable is he, even with the walks?

I got into a disagreement a couple of days ago here over whether Tejada should've been batting second in that game's lineup. I said "no", and it came up that Tejada's OBP was about league average, or a tick of a hair above average, to justify his spot in the #2 hole. Like Granderson here, whose 's OPS+ and WRC+ is about league average, or a teeny tiny bit more. The problem with average, or league average, is that in MLB, it doesn't mean what it usually means in the normal world. Major league baseball players are comprised of the coupl'a hundred best position players in the world. That's hardly a random sample. So when you plot the stats of MLB players, you don't usually get a bell shaped curve; instead you get a distribution that's like the right-most tail end of a bell shaped curve. In that curve, almost every player clusters around the average. So for example, if the league batting average is .260, you might get two or three batting average champ candidates batting 60 or 70 points above average. But don't expect to find two or three players with a full season's worth of at bats batting 60 or 70 points below average. The curve is skewed towards average. And in baseball, average is kind of crappy. You'd know this instinctively even if you didn't think about the math. Average is no good because only a quarter of the teams qualify to play full playoff series. The average team knows it's out of the race probably before Labor Day. It sucks to be average in MLB. And Grandy sucks.

Ceetar wrote: I don't really care how much he's making, nor do I care what position he plays. I care about the aggregate of the entire team.

So if the Mets had Stargell and Aaron and Bench and Morgan and Seaver and Carlton in their primes on the same team, it'd be OK with you if my mother was their starting shortstop, right?

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Ceetar wrote: I don't really care how much he's making, nor do I care what position he plays. I care about the aggregate of the entire team. So if the Mets had Stargell and Aaron and Bench and Morgan and Seaver and Carlton in their primes on the same team, it'd be OK with you if my mother was their starting shortstop, right?

Yes. Though you exaggerate, I'd absolutely take a SS that hits like Rey Ordonez and fields like Wilmer Flores if the rest of the team is that? That team wins.

You're also wrong about the average thing. Average is good in baseball. The average hitter is .253/.318/.397. That plays. That's better than half the players on most teams. It's hard to be that good. Yes, you need guys to play above that, and that Granderson is only a tick above isn't great, but the problem is still that the Mets lost two guys hitting WAY above that line.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: Ceetar wrote: I don't really care how much he's making, nor do I care what position he plays. I care about the aggregate of the entire team. So if the Mets had Stargell and Aaron and Bench and Morgan and Seaver and Carlton in their primes on the same team, it'd be OK with you if my mother was their starting shortstop, right? Yes. Though you exaggerate, I'd absolutely take a SS that hits like Rey Ordonez and fields like Wilmer Flores if the rest of the team is that? That team wins.

That team wins in spite of its shortstop.

Ceetar wrote: You're also wrong about the average thing. Average is good in baseball. The average hitter is .253/.318/.397. That plays. That's better than half the players on most teams. It's hard to be that good. Yes, you need guys to play above that, and that Granderson is only a tick above isn't great, but the problem is still that the Mets lost two guys hitting WAY above that line.

If you wanna build a pennant contender, average sucks in baseball. The average team, with a roster full of average guys, goes nowhere.

Bigger picture, the average MLB'er makes millions of dollars a year while still a relatively young man and is one of the best players in the world. That part of average, I could go for.

[Ceetar]

The average team with average players could tread water if it has two great guys coming back, the potential for midseason trades, a history of better performance from at least 2 of it's hitters, and a 5 game lead over the only team that anyone thinks is any good.

(A team that had Strasburg pulled from the game for discomfort)

That team? That team is on the cusp of a playoff berth all season. It doesn't hinge on if Granderson is merely 5% better than average or closer to 20%. Sure, that would help, but it's the other guys that are the problem.

[Vic Sage]

So if the Mets had Stargell and Aaron and Bench and Morgan and Seaver and Carlton in their primes on the same team, it'd be OK with you if my mother was their starting shortstop, right?

i don't know... how good is your mom? Can she throw the ball accurately to first? sign her up!

As for Grandy: He's got a .690 OPS at a key offensive position, eating up $15m of extremely limited resources, and hasn't been good since 2012. He doesn't run anymore and he's a RFer that can't throw. Frankly, I don't think his suckitude is really up for debate.

Sure, you can twist yourself into a knot talking about how he's not THE problem because, you know, he draws walks, but he's certainly A problem. The only issue is what can the Mets do about it... the answer is not much. A team with resources might look to dump him and eat his contract, getting what they can for him, and trade one of their pitchers for an OFer that can... um... hit, but i don't see the Mets doing that. Instead, we'll talk about Flores and Murphy and Cuddyer, which is fine, because they all suck too, but as to CF's cogent point: why does Grandy get a pass? Because he's a nice guy who draws walks. Well aint' that just peachy? Sure, i'd be happy if he'd marry my daughter, but get him the fuck out of RF already.

Edited May 6, 2015 by Guest

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: Ceetar wrote: I don't really care how much he's making, nor do I care what position he plays. I care about the aggregate of the entire team. So if the Mets had Stargell and Aaron and Bench and Morgan and Seaver and Carlton in their primes on the same team, it'd be OK with you if my mother was their starting shortstop, right? Yes. Though you exaggerate, I'd absolutely take a SS that hits like Rey Ordonez and fields like Wilmer Flores if the rest of the team is that? That team wins.

Look, if you have an otherwise great team, one of the benefits is that you can carry lesser players. Everybody can't be an all-star, and supply and demand makes it almost impossible for any team to field eight position playing stars. Even the '86 Mets had Rafael Santana. But don't twist that into something it's not. Granderson is not anywhere near the reason this year's Mets are in first place. And a team full of guys performing like Grandy would be eliminated very early.

[Ceetar]

I mean, I can point to all the facts I want, if you're not going to believe them, don't believe them.

[Edgy MD]

I imagine the average team filled with average guys goes to about 81-81. I don't think that sucks.

Nor do you rip the guys who get you there. You look to replace the sub-average guys, which right now, are at catcher, second, third, and short. Hopefully, some or all of that can be solved internally.

Average guys have held the fort for great teams forever, so the excellent players can put them over the top.

No use having Jack Clark if you've got Johnnie Lemaster and Rennie Stennett in the infield. Replace them with average guys instead of pokes who undermine Clark's every effort, and the 1980 Giants are a very good team.

The Mets would be fools to release Granderson, no matter what resources they had. Any team would be.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Maybe Zvon can photoshop a pi�ata with Curtis's mug on it!

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: If you wanna build a pennant contender, average sucks in baseball. The average team, with a roster full of average guys, goes nowhere.

Is that really true? I don't know this for sure, but I'd guess that a team loaded with average guys -- that is, NONE below average for their roles* -- would probably be a good team. The teams that go nowhere are the ones who have a guy or three below average.


* - by this I mean, your first baseman average vs. other first basemen, your leadoff guy vs. other leadoff guys etc. however it works out.

[batmagadanleadoff]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: If you wanna build a pennant contender, average sucks in baseball. The average team, with a roster full of average guys, goes nowhere. Is that really true? I don't know this for sure, but I'd guess that a team loaded with average guys -- that is, NONE below average for their roles* -- would probably be a good team. The teams that go nowhere are the ones who have a guy or three below average. * - by this I mean, your first baseman average vs. other first basemen, your leadoff guy vs. other leadoff guys etc. however it works out.

By average, I mean average. Not necessarily below average, but not really above average either.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: I imagine the average team filled with average guys goes to about 81-81. I don't think that sucks. Nor do you rip the guys who get you there. You look to replace the sub-average guys, which right now, are at catcher, second, third, and short. Hopefully, some or all of that can be solved internally. Average guys have held the fort for great teams forever, so the excellent players can put them over the top. No use having Jack Clark if you've got Johnnie Lemaster and Rennie Stennett in the infield. Replace them with average guys instead of pokes who undermine Clark's every effort, and the 1980 Giants are a very good team. The Mets would be fools to release Granderson, no matter what resources they had. Any team would be.

I agree. And teams have to have average players because there's more of them then there are stars. But that's a far cry from saying that Granderson is very valuable. Granderson's not an asset at this stage of his career. But these are different questions. We started out with: Does Granderson suck? (a/k/a how good or not good is he?)

Edited May 6, 2015 by Guest