Terry LaRussa

[Edgy MD]

Lotta outlets reporting out loud that Terry Collins is thinking seriously about the pitcher batting eighth much more frequently this season, going with a lineup something along the lines of:

[*:125o1tgs]Granderson[/*:m:125o1tgs]
[*:125o1tgs]Wright[/*:m:125o1tgs]
[*:125o1tgs]Duda[/*:m:125o1tgs]
[*:125o1tgs]Cuddyer[/*:m:125o1tgs]
[*:125o1tgs]Murphy[/*:m:125o1tgs]
[*:125o1tgs]d'Arnaud[/*:m:125o1tgs]
[*:125o1tgs]Flores[/*:m:125o1tgs]
[*:125o1tgs]Pitcher[/*:m:125o1tgs]
[*:125o1tgs]Lagares[/*:m:125o1tgs][/list:o:125o1tgs]

Seems modestly workable, but can Duda hack the three-hole?

Or should it matter? It's like everybody goes forward a notch and poor Laggy gets knocked out of the bed and has to climb in the other side. Our 3-4-5 guys look like a perfectly viable 4-5-6.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I don't get why Muffy is fifth.

[Edgy MD]

Because Terry has lefty-righty-lefty fever, and the only cure is more Murphy.

�It negates a lefty reliever coming in and taking out an entire inning easily,� Collins said.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Behind a bunch of dudes who can get on base, Murph actually makes more offensive sense, doesn't he?

Me-from-a-month-ago wouldn't believe I'm about to say this, but... whither JohnnyLags? I kinda want to get him more plate appearances.

[Ceetar]

It's a silly contrivance to keep going RLRLRL and not bat Murphy 6th cause Murphy's his guy and that's too low in the batting order.

the order doesn't really matter too much of course, but I dislike Flores and the pitcher* getting more AB than Lagares.

But likely this will work itself out at any rate. someone won't hit that well and it'll become obvious you should hit him/them 7th/8th or everyone will be pulling their weight and it doesn't really matter that the back of the lineup is hitting well but can't find anyone to supplant at the top.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Behind a bunch of dudes who can get on base, Murph actually makes more offensive sense, doesn't he?

yeah, I kinda like that. He's a good contact type guy, so the Mets will benefit from the chaos of ball in play with runners on. More chance of an error occuring with more moving parts. and d'Arnaud (And sorta Recker) with the power behind him to sweep the bases clean as well.

[batmagadanleadoff]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Me-from-a-month-ago wouldn't believe I'm about to say this, but... whither JohnnyLags? I kinda want to get him more plate appearances.

Take a deep breath. It's March.

[Edgy MD]

That's the thing. This makes more sense now than at early eras in baseball history because the eighth-place-hitting pitcher won't get more at-bats than the ninth hitter.

A pitcher is generally pinch-hit for the last two times through the batting order, more or less. That'll be true batting eighth or ninth. He may get 11% more at-bats than he used to, and that's not nothing, but he won't get more at-bats than the ninth-place hitter.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Yeah, but if Collins intended to bat Lagares at the top of a conventional lineup, than Lagares's PA's are being reduced by a whole lot.

[Edgy MD]

Certainly. I was just meaning to respond to

Ceetar wrote: the order doesn't really matter too much of course, but I dislike Flores and the pitcher* getting more AB than Lagares.

I miscalculated too. That 11% figure is inflated.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Edgy MD wrote: That's the thing. This makes more sense now than at early eras in baseball history because the eighth-place-hitting pitcher won't get more at-bats than the ninth hitter. A pitcher is generally pinch-hit for the last two times through the batting order, more or less. That'll be true batting eighth or ninth. He may get 11% more at-bats than he used to, and that's not nothing, but he won't get more at-bats than the ninth-place hitter.

Yeah but I still don't get the 8/9 thing. And I'm down on Muffy in general

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't get the 8/9 thing either. It's just the illusion of a difference. The batting order isn't really a list, it's a cycle. It has to start somewhere, (in the first inning, of course) but then it's a rotation.

This:

Granderson Wright Duda Cuddyer Murphy d'Arnaud Flores Pitcher Lagares

Is only nominally different from this:

Lagares Granderson Wright Duda Cuddyer Murphy d'Arnaud Flores Pitcher

It may make the manager look like he's thinking outside the box, but it really means next to nothing, except to Juan Lagares, who, as noted, will be getting significantly fewer plate appearances.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Whenever this pitcher batting eighth thing comes up, I always have to think harder than I usually do just to remind myself what the payoff's supposed to be. That's because I probably dismissed this strategy in the past and haven't thought about it much, since.

The payoff, as I now recall, is supposed to increase the odds of your number three hitter coming up with the bases loaded, or more RBI opps, in general, for the guys atop the order. This might make some sense when the manager swaps the pitcher with the number eight hitter. Even then, I wonder if the payoff is meaningful, instead of negligible or even counterproductive. On rare occasions, the pitcher is a better hitter than one of the position players and so the batting order pitcher switcheroo is warranted on that basis alone.

But I don't recall a manager demoting his leadoff hitter to the last spot in the lineup in pursuit of that payoff. To me, that's absolute lunacy.

Am I missing something?

[Guest d'Kong76]

I'd be shocked if "lotta outlets" is right and we ever see
this happening.

[ashie62]

Let the pitcher bat ninth. Attempts otherwise are vanity projects.

[Edgy MD]

A big part of the thinking is to better concentrate better hitters. The leadoff hitter is presumably a good hitter, at least relative to the lineup. But he always comes up either with an automatic out in front of him, or to leadoff because the automatic out ended the inning.

His primary job, obviously, is to get on base, but he's presumably got a related secondary skill to push other guys around, and merely getting on base isn't as valuable when you're coming up with one or two out and nobody on.

That's part of the thinking, anyhow.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: A big part of the thinking is to better concentrate better hitters. The leadoff hitter ... His primary job, obviously, is to get on base....\

Everybody's job is to get on base (a/k/a "do not make an out"). Essentially. That's your offense. The guy that bats leadoff and the guy that bats seventh have the exact same job on offense. Don't make an out. The guy that bats seventh bats seventh because he's not as good at his job as the leadoff guy. Any manager that creates a specific spot in the lineup for someone to purposely make an out should be strangled on site. I digressed a little.

[fimg=333]http://blogs.villagevoice.com/runninscared/NY_DN0620-thumb.jpg[/fimg]
Cry me a river. Willie thought he was Earl Weaver. And as you can see,
MLB has been falling over itself to hire him again. Good riddance.

If everybody gets on base, if everybody doesn't ever make an out, well ... you can see where that's going. If your leadoff guy is good at getting on base, good at not making outs, it's counterproductive to bat him ninth. And he'd still immediately precede the #2 hitter, who's now a #1 hitter in the shifted lineup. 100+ less PA's, to me, outweighs everything else. This, to me, is fundamentally different than simply swapping the eight guy and the pitcher.

Edited March 26, 2015 by Guest

[Zvon]

If TC wants to play games with the line-up, don't be doing it at the expense of a players progress. Lags is being groomed to be a lead-off hitter. He's excelling at the role this spring. Don't fuck with this. If you want to flip flop 8 & 9, put someone else 9th. Muffy would be a good candidate IMO.

[batmagadanleadoff]

ac

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Am I missing something?

I did miss something. Lagares the conventional leadoff hitter might get his PA's cut by a lot if he's suddenly slotted 9th, but everybody else moves up one slot. So Wright and Duda and all of the other bruisers in the Mets Big Blue Lumber Company Machine get more PA's and take up some of the slack of the conventional leadoff hitter's reduced PA's. So this idea is not as wacky as I first imagined. How much less wacky? Beats me, but less.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Just to be sure I don't think lineups really matter all that much except in the case you have some terrific leadoff guy like Rickey, which the Mets don't, and/or when it appears to matter for the comfort of the ballpayer. David Wright would be a great leadoff guy but he's probably less comfortable doing it than hitting 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

Lagares may still convince me otherwise but the numbers suggest he was lucky on balls in play last year and doesn't walk enough so if you didn't want to lead him off I totally get it. But how the Mets are better off with him 9th as opposed to 8th is where I don't get it.

[Fman99]

It's dumb. He's overthinking. Isn't Lagares batting like .450 this spring? Let's bury him after Colon in the lineup, makes 100% sense to me.

Maybe they can wear cleats on our hands and gloves on their feet, too. No one else is doing it. It's GENIUS.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

In all fairness, he's "buried" after Colon if he's leading off, too. (NO I'M NOT ARGUING AGAINST MYSELF YOU ARE SHUTUP)

[Edgy MD]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Edgy MD wrote: A big part of the thinking is to better concentrate better hitters. The leadoff hitter ... His primary job, obviously, is to get on base....\ Everybody's job is to get on base (a/k/a "do not make an out").

Yes, well, I chose the word obviously for a reason.

I'm not sure when Lags graduated to become an established leadoff hitter, much less a conventional one. Seemed like a lot of folks thought him a dubious candidate a month or two ago.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Edgy MD wrote: A big part of the thinking is to better concentrate better hitters. The leadoff hitter ... His primary job, obviously, is to get on base....\ Everybody's job is to get on base (a/k/a "do not make an out"). Yes, well, I chose the word obviously for a reason. I'm not sure when Lags graduated to become an established leadoff hitter, much less a conventional one. Seemed like a lot of folks thought him a dubious candidate a month or two ago.

Good point. Me, I'm not necessarily saying that Lagares is the Mets ideal leadoffer. What I am saying, or what I did said write but then waffled on but only a tiny little bit to account for Wright and Duda moving up, is that the idea of Lags being a combo leadoff hitter/9th hitter is hard to reconcile.

[Ceetar]

You know what would increase offense and RBI opportunities for the leadoff guys?

a DH.

or at the very least, even pretending a little bit that your pitchers are also supposed to hit.

[Edgy MD]

The idea is trying to increase your offense relative to the other team. Not universally.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Ceetar wrote: You know what would increase offense and RBI opportunities for the leadoff guys? a DH.

Oh, snap!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Ceetar wrote: You know what would increase offense and RBI opportunities for the leadoff guys? a DH.

It would also make the game a helluva lot less interesting. On the rare instances when I watch a game played by AL rules it feels like it's the "managing for dummies" version.

[Frayed Knot]

Lagares is a much better hitter now

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Ceetar wrote: You know what would increase offense and RBI opportunities for the leadoff guys? a DH. It would also make the game a helluva lot less interesting. On the rare instances when I watch a game played by AL rules it feels like it's the "managing for dummies" version.

Better than guys like Bartolo Colon making a mockery of things.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I couldn't disagree more.