Forecasts for Fifteen: Jacob deGrom

[Edgy MD]

Rookie of the Year. Surprise of surprises. Men's Hair Care Now cover model.

But... well, kinda old for a rookie. Can I build on last year's success? Can I?!



What will 2015 look like for Jacob deGrom?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

It's easy to forget that he was supposed to be a relief pitcher when they first brought him up. But. Well, I dunno.

Not as dominant as last year is what my gut is telling me. Whiffs will decrease slightly, and some will turn into home runs. Still a solid guy most nights and playing for a 102-win team is going to be to his advantage, win-column-wise.

16-10, 3.66, 150 K's, 50 BBs in 170 innings

[Lefty Specialist]

Teams didn't catch up to him the second time around, so I think he'll be okay. Playing for an 81-win team with a spotty offense will hinder him, win-column-wise, though.

13-8, 3.46, lots of ND's.

[A Boy Named Seo]

If I didn't know he didn't strikeout 9+ dudes per 9 in the minors, I'd have no real worries here, but I do wonder if he'll regress some. Baseball HQ talks about his high percentage of swinging strikes, which they say is a good indicator for success going forward regardless. His walks went up a little in the Majors, too, so if they both 'go back' a little, I figure he should be alright.

I'm gonna guess 182 IP, 167 K, 53 BB, 3.39 ERA, 13 wins.

[Edgy MD]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: It's easy to forget that he was supposed to be a relief pitcher when they first brought him up.

This often gets framed as evidence in the "Mets have no clue" case, but I thought it was flattering. They brought him up for a spot start with the intent to keep him around for relief. I didn't read this as "We don't think he has the goods to start" so much as "We don't have an opening right now, but we think he looks to have put the minors behind him."

[Guest themetfairy]

More of the same -

[Edgy MD]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Still a solid guy most nights and playing for a 102-win team is going to be to his advantage, win-column-wise. 16-10, 3.66, 150 K's, 50 BBs in 170 innings

Lefty Specialist wrote: Playing for an 81-win team with a spotty offense will hinder him, win-column-wise, though. 13-8, 3.46, lots of ND's.

Interestingly, the bearish guy here predicted the lower win total, but the higher win percentage, .619 to .615

[batmagadanleadoff]

He got better deeper into the season and by the time it was all over, deGrom was legitimately, one of the league's most dominant pitchers. There was more there than simply someone copping the ROY award against a weak field. Barring injury, a significant drop-off in effectiveness would surprise me. I think deGrom can sustain the level of quality pitching he established last year.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Edgy MD wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Still a solid guy most nights and playing for a 102-win team is going to be to his advantage, win-column-wise. 16-10, 3.66, 150 K's, 50 BBs in 170 innings Lefty Specialist wrote: Playing for an 81-win team with a spotty offense will hinder him, win-column-wise, though. 13-8, 3.46, lots of ND's. Interestingly, the bearish guy here predicted the lower win total, but the higher win percentage, .619 to .615

Yeah but that's mostly because I tempered my original win total when I realized I'd given him too many starts and decisions for the innings I was expecting. I was trying to make him go 18-12.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Remind me, who's this guy, again?





But seriously, folks...

He got better deeper into the season and by the time it was all over, deGrom was legitimately, one of the league's most dominant pitchers. There was more there than simply someone copping the ROY award against a weak field. Barring injury, a significant drop-off in effectiveness would surprise me. I think deGrom can sustain the level of quality pitching he established last year.

I'm in this camp. Did you guys look at his second-half numbers? He was damn good the first time through the league... and damn near Kershaw-level the second/third go-round. The strand rate-- 77.4%-- is a little high, but, barring an injury or drastic change in approach, that's the only thing that looks like it might fall "back to earth." Maybe he lets up a few more longballs, but, well, he doesn't really hang much, does he? Everything else seems to indicate that he's staying in this neighborhood:

30 GS, 196 IP, 181 K/52 BB, 13 W/7 L, 13 HR allowed, 3.08 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

[Benjamin Grimm]

24-4, 1.53.

Okay, maybe that's a little optimistic. I actually think he'll be a bit less sensational in 2015 than he was last year. Maybe 15-9, 3.60.

[metirish]

CY Young baby....

[MFS62]

14-11 3.10



Later

[smg58]

Once again, I feel like I'm almost copying MFS62.

I'll say 14-9, 2.95 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, over 200 K.

[ashie62]

15-8 2.98 stays healthy.

[Guest d'Kong76]

High teens in wins (leading the team) and a Cy candidate.

[Ceetar]

209.2 IP, 215Ks, 2.68 ERA, 2.65 BB/9.

Due to a late clinch, starts game 1 of the NLDS.

[Vic Sage]

30-0 / 0.01 ERA /CY and MVP awards, then leads the parade down the canyon of heroes, getting the key to the city and a blow job by ScarJo on the steps of city hall.
Oh, wait. that was me, last night. But then i woke up. Damn.

15-11 / 3.2 ERA / 200 IP / 190K

[Guest themetfairy]

A year worth smiling about.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Nice profile here from Howard Altman at the Observer (along with throwback caricature!)

AND a look at how stuff works for Dutch Boy.