Prospect Porn, 2015

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

HOW THE F*CKING F*CK DO YOU BAT ROSARIO EIGHTH, WALLY

[Kicks Google Ottoman in disgust]

[Frayed Knot]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: My $$ on Big Fat Disappointment, emphasis on "Fat."

[fimg=350]http://www.dnamagazine.com.au/media/0/62549/2/julyMatt%20Harvey1.jpg[/fimg]

"Who you calling FAT?"

[Frayed Knot]

MLB.com's Top-100

82 - Michael Conforto
72 - Brandon Nimmo
66 - Steven Matz
63 - Kevin Plawecki
10 - Noah Syndergaard


Clicking on a given player via that link gives you a scouting report

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Frayed Knot wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: My $$ on Big Fat Disappointment, emphasis on "Fat." [fimg=350]http://www.dnamagazine.com.au/media/0/62549/2/julyMatt%20Harvey1.jpg[/fimg] "Who you calling FAT?"

Now I see why the thread is called "prospect porn."

[Edgy MD]

Rosario and Smith make MLB.com's supplemental list.

Score!

[Vic Sage]

Edgy MD wrote: A lot of starters sliding happily over to the bench like it's the 1970s all over again. But Laggy sliding over for Caleb Stewart? I laugh! I scoff!

There is a parallel reality in the multiverse where this has already happened.

[Edgy MD]

Caleb's still only 32. I say we give him a minor league deal.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: Rosario and Smith make MLB.com's supplemental list.

Which makes it five in the top 100, and seven in the top 120 where the norms would be about 3 and 4.
Certainly encouraging, even if tempered a bit by the fact that, after getting past Syndergaard, the rest are in the back half of that list.

[Edgy MD]

The interesting part to me are Matz's upward trend, as some have more trust in him putting the injuries and missed time behind him, and Montero's downward trend, as some are more concerned about his initial MLB misfires than others.

I'm trying to stay encouraged that Montero is an MLB pitcher of some sort, as his failures so far were rife with bad control, and that's like his lead skill, and I'm trying to think it's unlikely that it's abandoned him.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Them eggheads over at 'em Baseball Prospectus sez'um of 'eir top hundred-and-one:

9. Syndergaard
33. Matz
69. Nimmo
78. Rosario
80. Plawecki
82. Herrera

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Jonathan "Hold The" Mayo of MLB.com lists RHP Gabriel Ynoa as a "sleeper" prospect:

http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/108852054/jonathan-mayo-mets-pitcher-gabriel-ynoa-no-1-on-list-of-top-five-sleeper-prospects There's a good amount of subjectivity regarding baseball prospects. With the evaluation of talent being in the eye of the beholder, finding consensus is often difficult. Even Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLBPipeline.com don't always see eye to eye. They discuss their viewpoints regularly in a feature called Pipeline Perspectives. Submit a topic for them to debate. As much time as we spend on figuring out who should go on the Top 100 Prospects list, we care about more than just the "big" names. Sure, they may get a good amount of our ink, but rest assured, we try to keep an eye on the entire prospect landscape. While we love seeing the elite prospects live up to expectations and become exciting superstars, we also enjoy watching lesser-known Minor Leaguers jump firmly onto the prospect map with a breakout season. That's why Jim Callis and I are using this edition of Pipeline Perspectives to tackle the question, "Which sleeper not on the Top 100 Prospect list do you like best?" A sleeper could be defined in any number of ways, but both Jim and I have chosen players who have largely been under-the-radar types, at least in terms of overall Top 100 lists. They were all on their individual team lists at the end of 2014 and will be firmly on the '15 versions coming out in March. But neither of the players we chose -- Jim has Astros outfielder Brett Phillips and I have Mets right-hander Gabriel Ynoa -- received strong consideration for the Top 100, other than perhaps a nod as a "sleeper to consider for the future." Of the players on my top five sleepers list, Ynoa is the only one who came remotely close to the overall rankings right now: 1. Ynoa 2. Amir Garrett, LHP, Reds 3. Clint Coulter, OF, Brewers 4. Dom Nunez, C, Rockies 5. Lewis Thorpe, LHP, Twins But a year from now, any one of them could be strong contenders. That's what we were looking at when making our choices. To me, the only way Ynoa doesn't work his way onto the Top 100 is if he pitches his way to the big leagues and graduates off the list. That might seem far-fetched, given that Ynoa is just 21 years old and there are a slew of young pitchers in the Mets' system to compete against. But I wouldn't count out the 6-foot-2 Dominican for one simple reason: He really knows how to pitch. There are other pitchers with better pure stuff than Ynoa, there's no question of that. He does have plenty of fastball, sitting in the low-90s and touching 95 mph, but that's not up where upper-echelon pitching prospects -- like organization-mate Noah Syndergaard -- live. Ynoa has an excellent changeup and a slider that's OK, but nothing like the exploding breaking stuff you might see from the guys at the top of the Top 100. What Ynoa can do is throw strikes. He walked 1.5 per nine innings across two levels, reaching Double-A, in 2014. And that was a career high. It made Ynoa's career walk rate skyrocket all the way up to 1.2. He made 25 starts in 2014 and walked exactly that many batters, 25. In his Minor League career, Ynoa has issued 63 walks in 86 total games. Everyone realizes how insane that is, right? Now, Ynoa does have some work to do. He was much more hittable last year, as he advanced, than he had been in previous seasons. Ynoa's control is impeccable, but he needs to command his pitches better, keep them down in the zone more. He needs to learn how to miss on occasion purposefully, getting hitters who are off-balance to chase. Everything else works extremely well. Ynoa has a smooth and clean delivery that he repeats consistently well. His changeup is so effective because his arm speed never changes. If Ynoa can sharpen his breaking ball some to miss a few more bats, it could be a huge difference-maker. I have confidence in Ynoa's ability to do all of those things for a number of reasons. Two are his plus makeup and mound presence. He doesn't get flustered on the mound and he knows how to make adjustments. I fully expect Ynoa to come out in 2015 and make the corrections necessary to succeed at the upper levels. If it all clicks and there's a need, he's the type of advanced arm that could move quickly to New York -- or at the very least, move quickly onto the Top 100. Every fall, when I head to the Arizona Fall League, there are scouts I love to catch up with. One veteran scout I always seek out gives me a couple of players to keep an eye out for, either a sleeper not on the list or a guy he predicts will make a huge jump the following season. This past fall, he mentioned two pitchers, both in the Mets' system. One was Steve Matz, the lefty now at No. 66 on the Top 100. The other was Ynoa, who he just raved about in terms of his pitchability. I tend to listen to this scout. Not long ago, he sang the praises of a lanky young outfielder in the Pirates' system who he said I absolutely had to move up the list in a hurry. His name? Gregory Polanco.

[Frayed Knot]

Them eggheads over at 'em Baseball Prospectus sez'um of 'eir top hundred-and-one: 9. Syndergaard 33. Matz 69. Nimmo 78. Rosario 80. Plawecki 82. Herrera

In the Q&A for that list they go a bit toward explaining the Syndergaard vs [Nats prospect Lucas] Giolito face-off as to which gets the 'best RHP prospect in baseball' title (a question that came up earlier in this thread -- although BP throws Dylan Bundy into the mix as well)


Q -- It seems clear that no other pitching prospect can touch Giolito's upside, but I wonder why Syndergaard's close-to-major-league-readiness and lack of injury history wouldn't make him the top pitching prospect in baseball.

A: -- More of a testament to Giolitto's immense upside and the fact that we don't view him as being as far away from contributing as his recent usage might indicate. Thor is a dude, no question.

[nymr83]

Keith Law doesnt like Matz but likes some other Met more than most, this is his Mets top 10 wit their overall rank in parenthesis...

1. Noah Syndergaard, RHP (17)
2. Michael Conforto, LF (41)
3. Kevin Plawecki, C (45)
4. Dominic Smith, 1B (65)
5. Amed Rosario, SS (69)
6. Brandon Nimmo, OF (91)
7. Dilson Herrera, 2B
8. Steven Matz, LHP
9. Rafael Montero, RHP
10. Gavin Cecchini, SS

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

BP really likes us, slotting Metsie just behind the Cubs, Twins and Rangers, and ahead of highly-touted systems like Colorado, Pittsburgh and Boston.

State of the System: Not the best, but likely the most balanced farm system in all of baseball, the Mets have everything you could want from a group of minor-league players�a potential ace (Noah Syndergaard), a major-league ready, everyday player (Dilson Herrera), an up-the-middle regular (Kevin Plawecki), a next wave of prospects coming behind them (Brandon Nimmo and Steven Matz), potential bats with a few years to go (Dominic Smith and Michael Conforto), and young, unproven, high-ceiling talent (Amed Rosario and Johan Urena). Not all of these players are going to work out, but the Mets, as an organizational whole, have enough safety nets to continue to refill their major-league roster for the next few years. Must-See Affiliate: Triple-A Las Vegas Prospects to See There: Noah Syndergaard, Dilson Herrera, Kevin Plawecki, Rafael Montero

Their writers peg the Nats at 11 (based mostly on Giolito's sky-high ceiling) and the rest of the division in/near the bottom third of baseball.

[Edgy MD]

Bring on the golden age.

[Frayed Knot]

Lots of scouting reports for NYM prospects courtesy of the folks at Fangraphs

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Frayed Knot wrote: Lots of scouting reports for NYM prospects courtesy of the folks at Fangraphs

Been camping out on that site for the last two months... LOVE the detail and-- especially-- the organizational depth. I mean, they're beyond Blake Taylor/Brosher territory, hipdeep into Gizeeyevenevurrhurduff Swamp. Especially fun for slightly-more-realistic speculating on potential Gee trades (From the Rangers*, e.g.-- NOT getting Profar/Odor; maybe on, say, Sardinas or Ti'Quan Forbes).

*Probably mooted now, granted

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

You thought Baseball Prospectus was up in our bid'ness, players? Baseball America be all up in Metly bid'ness.

7 in the top 100, tied with Boston for first.
4 in the top 50-- #11 Syndergaard, #33 Matz, #45 Nimmo, #46 Herrera.

(#63 Plawecki, #80 Conforto, and #98 Rosario round out the set.)

[Edgy MD]

Matz is all over the board, i'n't he?

Looks like a make-or-brake year for Rosario, as far as prospect stock, if not so far as his ultimate fate. He could easily become the Mets #1 prospect by this time next year, or fade like the grass in the fields.

[MFS62]

Mets in the BA top 100, as reported on the MLB network:

11. Thor
33. Matz
45. Nimmo
46. Herrera
63. Plawecki
80. Conforto
98. Rosario

Tied with the Red Sox for most playrs in the Top 100, with 7.

Later

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

oh well whatever nevermind

[Edgy MD]

Not only is Syndergaard the #11 prospect according to Baseball Prospectus, but a publication called BP has ranked a Mets prospect named Thor in their 11th slot.

When we report the same news a second time, it's like a fake validation of the earlier post. YEAH!

[Frayed Knot]

My mash-up of four* prospect lists: BA, BP, MLB (Mayo) and ESPN (Law), finds NYM prospects at --
#10 - Syndergaard
#50 - Matz
#70 - Conforto
#71 - Nimmo
#72 - Plawecki
#77 - Herrera


League wide list:

1 - Byron Buxton - OF, Twins (21)
2nd overall pick in 2012 draft missed most of last season with injuries (only 124 ABs) but it hasn't soured the touts on his potential

2 - Kris Bryant - 3B, Cubs (24)
2nd overall pick in 2013 draft has monster power and will be up early this season, maybe even for OD

3 - Carlos Correa - SS, Astros (20)
1st overall pick in 2012 draft out of Puerto Rico, also missed a large chunk of 2014 with injuries

4 - Addison Russell - SS, Cubs (21)
The big trade bait in the Samardzija deal at mid-season, Oakland's 1st round pick (11th overall) in 2012 is probably at least a 1/2 year away still

5 - Francisco Lindor - SS, Indians (21)
Still more glove than bat, but with 600+ ABs at AA+AAA he should be just about ready to come out of the oven

6 - Corey Seager - SS, Dodgers (20)
18th overall pick in 2012 mashed at high-A & AA in 2014 [.349/.402/.602]. Brother Kyle was All-Star with Seattle last year and other brother Justin is in Seattle system

7 - Lucas Giolito - RHP, Nationals (20)
Nationals pretty much knew he'd need TJ surgery when they drafted him 16th overall in 2012 (and he did after just 2 professional IP) but the strategy is looking good so far after he sat out most of 2013

8 - Julio Urias - LHP, Dodgers (18)
Mexican signee dominated low-A ball in 2014 [2.25 ERA, 1.1 WHiP] yet won't even turn 19 until this coming August

9 - Joey Gallo - 3B, Rangers (21)
39th overall pick in 2012 draft shows Crazy power (see what I did there?) with 42 HRs across 2 levels last season. Lots of Ks to go with it but an improving all-around game

10 - Syndergaard





* I usually include John Sickels report as well but he's been ill and is behind the 8-ball this winter

[MFS62]

Edgy MD wrote: Not only is Syndergaard the #11 prospect according to Baseball Prospectus, but a publication called BP has ranked a Mets prospect named Thor in their 11th slot. When we report the same news a second time, it's like a fake validation of the earlier post. YEAH!

My post was about Baseball America, not Baseball Prospectus. And earlier reports I heard had BA having six players in their top 100. According to the MLB report, BA had seven. That's why the repost. And BA is not BP.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Yes, I know it's not the same. My post was meant satirically to point out that the same news was being posted more than once.

OE: I'm certainly guilty of the same.

[Benjamin Grimm]

You thought Baseball Prospectus was up in our bid'ness, players? Baseball America be all up in Metly bid'ness. 7 in the top 100, tied with Boston for first. 4 in the top 50-- #11 Syndergaard, #33 Matz, #45 Nimmo, #46 Herrera. (#63 Plawecki, #80 Conforto, and #98 Rosario round out the set.)

Mets in the BA top 100, as reported on the MLB network: 11. Thor 33. Matz 45. Nimmo 46. Herrera 63. Plawecki 80. Conforto 98. Rosario Tied with the Red Sox for most playrs in the Top 100, with 7. Later

These two posts sure look the same to me.

[MFS62]

Yep. You're right. Missed it. (insert blushing emoticon here)

Later

[Frayed Knot]

From the Q&A session following BA's Top-100

Q: Amed Rosario was a pleasant surprise at #98. Are scouts completely sold that he'll be able to stick at SS?
A: (John Manuel - BA): We do believe he profiles as a strong defensive shortstop; range, agility and arm strength are all there. Now he needs to add polish to the package. But right now, he�s a glove-first guy, kind of an Alcides Escobar type, but with the potential for more offensive upside. There�s a lot to like with the Mets� prospects and with Rosario.

[Frayed Knot]

Conforto & Matz declared to be 'Studs' on BA's mid-season 'Studs & Duds' report.

Basically they're picking one player from each position who's exceeded or fallen short of their pre-season status.
Also good news is that none of our guys showed up on the duds side of the ledger.

Conforto: The 10th overall pick in the 2014 draft, Conforto showcased a broad offensive skill set as he advanced to Double-A Binghamton in the first half. He batted .308/.388/.506 with nine home runs, 21 doubles-plus-triples and a selective strikeout-to-walk ratio of 43-to-31.

Matz: Matz didn�t back down from a tough assignment to the Pacific Coast League, going 7-4, 2.19 through 15 appearances at Triple-A Las Vegas. The lefthander led the league in both ERA and strikeouts in the first half, recording 94 in 90 innings. Matz can reach back for mid-90s velocity and throw two quality offspeed pitches for strikes.





I was going to make a note on Conforto but felt it best to wait until he had 100 AA ABs under his belt lest I seem overly giddy.
But since BA brought him up ... the numbers they quote above are his overall stats for the year, but since his promotion to Binghamton he's gone [.346/.448/.568 // 1016] in 96 PA/81 AB after putting up a 811 OPS in the more pitching friendly FSL. 12 of his 28 hits since his promotion have gone for XB including 2 HRs & 2 3B

Still too early to discuss with any conviction, but if he keeps that pace up we'll be having a Kris Bryant-like discussion this winter over if/how soon to bring him up in 2016 and how the cheap-ass Wilpons are going to wait until [insert date here] before they do. Conforto is 14 months younger than Bryant so will be at a similar spot next year that Bryant was this past spring. Bryant was promoted more aggressively through the system by the Cubs and also hit for more power in the minors as compared to Conforto but he showed more power than just about anyone in the minors so that's to be expected.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm like, almost totally okay at this point to make Cuddy the righthanded pinch hitter we need and throw this kid out there. I know there a million reasons not to do that now including one I read somewhere that suggested Conforto still need to work on his D to be an effective ML player, but geez.