AL Playoff Matchup

[Frayed Knot]

Holding team to ZERO runs might increase slightly based on the increased GiDP odds
But at the same time the 2-or-more odds have to jump some given that you're freely awarding the winning run the toughest 90 feet to get.

I've seen tables like this in the past--ones that show pcts rather than averages--but can't seem to locate one now.
And of course you'd want stats that are at least relatively up to date since run scoring in general is down these days.

And we have to remember that any of those tables are only generic and can't take into consideration the specific batters & pitchers.
I don't have a problem with what Buck did did given the players involved and the two game gap he had to play with.
I'd just be curious as to how the individual pcts broke down.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Holding team to ZERO runs might increase slightly based on the increased GiDP odds But at the same time the 2-or-more odds have to jump some given that you're freely awarding the winning run the toughest 90 feet to get. I've seen tables like this in the past--ones that show pcts rather than averages--but can't seem to locate one now. And of course you'd want stats that are at least relatively up to date since run scoring in general is down these days. And we have to remember that any of those tables are only generic and can't take into consideration the specific batters & pitchers. I don't have a problem with what Buck did did given the players involved and the two game gap he had to play with. I'd just be curious as to how the individual pcts broke down.

oh, I agree with you. I'm fine with the move. and I'd be interested to see those tables as well, though I don't think I've seen a 2+ runs one though. the numbers I posted were from 2014. Remind me when the 2014 data is available via retrosheet and maybe I'll try to recreate it myself.


I'd also like to see an _exactly_ one run chart because while bunting with no outs and 1 on is generally bad and reduces scoring, when it's the bottom of the 9th of a tie game, I'm not so sure it's as bad as it's made out to be somtime.

[Edgy MD]

If it's the matchup you want, it's the matchup you want.

Book says, "Don't put the winning run on base." OK, Mr. Smartybook, but if the tying run is at second, and Barry Bonds is at the plate, and Bartolo Colon is on deck, and there's absolutely nobody left to pinch-hit for him, what then? WHAT THEN, MR. SMARTYBOOK?!

[metsmarathon]

viewed strictly under the lens of win probability, walking castellanos added 5% to the tigers' chances of winning hte game.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: "We're going to walk this guy, Showalter reportedly told the conferencers at the mound. "The next guy's going to hit into a double play, and we're gonna go home." Congratulations to Buck and all the Orioles.

One thing I hadn't realized is that this was the first time a Showalter team had won a post-season series.

NYY
1992 - finished 4th w/Yanx
1993 - finished 2nd in the last pre-WC season
1994 - was in 1st place when the season was canceled
1995 - won the first ever AL WC but lost in 5 games to Seattle after taking a 2-0 leadm then was fired after the season and the Yanx went on to win four of the next five WS

Ariz
1998 - finished 5th w/the expansion Diamondbacks
1999 - Won NL West but lost in a 5-game series to the WC NY Mets
2000 - Finished 3rd and was fired after the season, DBacks won WS the following year

TEX:
2003 - finished 4th
2004 - finished 3rd
2005 - finished 3rd
2006 - finished 3rd, then was fired after the season

BALT:
2010 - took over late in the season, finished 5th
2011 - finished 5th
2012 - Won WC plus the WC play-in game vs Texas, but then lost the 1st round to the Yanx 3-2
2013 - finished 3rd

[Frayed Knot]

... I'd be interested to see those tables as well, though I don't think I've seen a 2+ runs one though. t he numbers I posted were from 2014. Remind me when the 2014 data is available via retrosheet and maybe I'll try to recreate it myself. I'd also like to see an _exactly_ one run chart because while bunting with no outs and 1 on is generally bad and reduces scoring, when it's the bottom of the 9th of a tie game, I'm not so sure it's as bad as it's made out to be somtime.

OK, here's an example of what I was talking about.
That particular chart is for 1999-2002 but the idea is the same even if the numbers there won't correspond exactly to those of 2014

For the O's/Tigers situation specifically what we're looking at is the difference in scoring in those pre and post IW situations: Runner on 2nd/1 out vs runners on 1st & 2nd/1 out
- odds of scoring 0 runs: 59.4% vs 57.4%
- odds of scoring exactly one run: 23.0% vs 16.1%
- odds of scoring exactly two runs: 9.8% vs 11.0%
- odds of scoring 2 or more runs (the sum of the 2 thru 5+ columns): 17.5% vs 26.4%

So, as expected, the odds of the O's losing the game in that inning by issuing the IW increased (assuming all other things being equal which they were NOT in this case) and a 9% jump in the odds is not a small difference.
I would have expected the odds of no runs to increase slightly after the walk on account of the increased GiDP rate, but maybe the chances of 2 consecutive walks bringing in a run negated that plus a bit more
The only odds that did decrease were those scoring exactly one run but that's not because the chances the offense would score at all went down but because the odds of them scoring only one run did.

[Ceetar]

The obvious caveat is that the league OPS in 2014 was .700 whereas the league OPS from 1999-2002 was somewhere around .765. Nearly 4000 more runs were scored on average in those years than in 2014 and more than a 1000 home runs.

Those definitely mess with the scoring numbers, particularly the 'more than 1' bits.

(You'll notice it even makes sense to bunt with runner on first no outs in the 9th of a tie game at home)

I don't know if Tangotiger re-ran those queries for 2012-2014 or any other time. (The site referenced doesn't exist for pbp data and i haven't found an adequate parser, nor had time to write one, for current data) I don't see it on Fangraphs anywhere but I sometimes can't find that stuff.


Just because it's so amazing, i'll include this. Kershaw had a 1.77 ERA this season in this run environment, Pedro Martinez, in 1999 (which was higher than those averages I mention above) had a 2.07 ERA. 1.74 in 2000.

[Edgy MD]

Frayed Knot wrote: Edgy MD wrote: "We're going to walk this guy, Showalter reportedly told the conferencers at the mound. "The next guy's going to hit into a double play, and we're gonna go home." Congratulations to Buck and all the Orioles. One thing I hadn't realized is that this was the first time a Showalter team had won a post-season series.

This was mentioned in the post-game, and he argued quite seriously that no, he had won a minor league post-season series with Oneonta or Fort Lauderdale or Albany or somebody. The interviewer was all, "Yeah, but.... the big leagues" and Buck was all, "They all count."

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: The obvious caveat is that the league OPS in 2014 was .700 whereas the league OPS from 1999-2002 was somewhere around .765. Nearly 4000 more runs were scored on average in those years than in 2014 and more than a 1000 home runs. Those definitely mess with the scoring numbers, particularly the 'more than 1' bits

The specific numbers would change (they'd basically be lower all around) but the relationship between them all would remain more or less the same.
IOW, it's not like the odds are going to reverse themselves as compared to how they were a decade ago; a (generic) move of giving the winning run a free pass to 1st will increase the odds that you lose the game in that inning.

... [buck] argued quite seriously that no, he had won a minor league post-season series with Oneonta or Fort Lauderdale or Albany or somebody. The interviewer was all, "Yeah, but.... the big leagues" and Buck was all, "They all count."

Buck was a career minor leaguer as a player and started managing at those levels very young. I'm not surprised that he takes that attitude.




btw, do you know that BB-Ref is now tracking manager challenges for each skipper?

[Guest d'Kong76]

Kansas City at Baltimore
When: 8:00 PM ET, Friday, October 10, 2014
Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland
SportsDirect Inc.

The Kansas City Royals are entering their first American League Championship Series since winning the World Series in 1985. The Baltimore Orioles, who host the Royals in Game 1 of the ALCS on Friday, are back for the first time since 1997 and are searching for the franchise�s first pennant since 1983. The Orioles and Kansas City present a contrast of styles but got to the ALCS the same way � with strong starting pitching and dominant bullpen work.

Baltimore led the majors in home runs and was last in stolen bases during the regular season while Kansas City was last in home runs but sat on top in stolen bases. The Royals do all the things well that teams need to do to win without hitting home runs, including playing great defense, but started to power up in the postseason with key extra-inning blasts from Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. Even without Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Matt Wieters in the lineup, the Orioles pounded Detroit pitching in the ALDS behind a strong series from Nelson Cruz and consistent production from Nick Markakis in the leadoff spot.

TV:
8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP:
Royals RH James Shields (1-0, 4.91 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Chris Tillman (1-0, 3.60)

�Big Game� James was bailed out by his offense after allowing four runs in five innings in the wild-card game against Oakland and surrendered a pair of solo home runs before earning the win over Los Angeles in his lone ALDS start. The free agent to-be�s big-game reputation outpaces the actual results as he is 3-4 with a 4.96 ERA in eight career postseason starts, including 0-2 in the ALCS. Shields picked up a pair of wins over the Orioles earlier this season, yielding a total of five runs and 12 hits in 14 innings.

Tillman battled through five innings against Detroit in Game 1 of the ALDS and held the Tigers to a pair of solo home runs in earning the win. The 26-year-old completed seven innings only once in his last seven starts but issued only one walk against Detroit while striking out six. Tillman had no trouble going deep into the game against the Royals on May 16, when he tossed a five-hit shutout.

WALK-OFFS:
1. Cruz owns 16 career postseason home runs, including eight in 12 ALCS games.
2. Kansas City DH Billy Butler went 0-for-9 with three walks in the ALDS.
3. Baltimore LHP Andrew Miller totaled 3 1/3 hitless innings in the ALDS.

[Edgy MD]

d'Kong76 wrote: Baltimore LHP Andrew Miller totaled 3 1/3 hitless innings in the ALDS.

This should explain those "Mets, Yankees Should Pursue Andrew Miller" pieces rolling out.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Also coming your way: "Mets should follow [crossout:1i9ihcai]Red Sox[/crossout:1i9ihcai] Orioles blueprint"