Leadoff

[Edgy MD]

What's your strategem for leadoff batter?

Much as I enjoyed Juan Lageres swinging with some more authority this season, I prefer him batting sixth and bashing the ball gap to gap, rather than slapping and taking and running and trying to be a leadoff guy, not that he's been a complete failure in that regard.

What's your plan for leadoff, in the next few weeks with Lagares absent, and going forward beyond? Do you give it to den Dekker until Young, Jr. returns? Do you expect EY to return promptly? Would you try Tejada and Flores?

Longer term, even beyond this year, who do you see profiling as the leadoff guy? Nimmo, Mazzill, Cecchini, and Rosario are too far away to speculate, but I don't see an answer in Las Vegas or Bingo either? Nieuwenhuis? Puello? Nah...

[ashie62]

Try something new...Den Dekker..you can always change it...

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I don't know much, but I know den Dekker-- he of the heavily-BABIP-dependent .330ish minors OBPs, and more wind than a professional frijole-taster/amateur bassoonist-- is not the guy.

Tejada, mebbe? If he's Old Tejada-- and he's playing like it over the last two weeks-- then he's most useful as a guy getting on in front of the guys who can do real damage, instead of trying to clean up their leftovers.

Long-term? Ridiculously walk-prone and gap-powerful, Nimmo seems built for it, don't he?

[Edgy MD]

Certainly, but there's a lot rivers and mountains and fan revolts between now and Nimmo.

Really underscores how two birds could've been bagged with a leadoff-hitting shorstop. Didi Gregorius, hear my cry!

[Frayed Knot]

Gregorius = .310/.389/.447 in 226 ABs at AAA Reno in 2014
coming on the heels of his 357 ML ABs of .252/.332/.373 in 2013

As for Arizona - who knows what's going on out there. They seem to like Chris Owings at SS who might have a bit more pop and is a year and a half younger than Didi
On the other hand the team has the 2nd worst record in the NL and has recently gone and pulled a Jim Dolan/Phil Jackson by bringing in Tony LaRussa to do a job he's never done before, that is to be an extra layer between the owner and the field with vaguely described duties which will play out ... somehow, a move which has the current GM and manager walking around on tippy-toes.

[Ceetar]

Well, the only non-pitchers with OBP higher than Tejada are Abreu (likely baBIP/luck driven and small sample size) Davis (he's not on the team anymore, also small sample) and Murphy.

Murphy drives the ball more, so Tejada, then Murphy.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I've been a Gregorius Guy for a while (and a gregarious one, so I'm willing to give the Snakes a young pitcher plus their choice of the SS we discard for Didi).

Otherwise, would be nice if Tejada's resurgeance is real or d'Arnaud would learn how to hit.

[MFS62]

[crossout:1tmn2np9]Batmagadanleadoff[/crossout:1tmn2np9] Murphy.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

The only problem with hitting Murphy at leadoff is that it might encourage him to start running even more recklessly.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm of the mind to drop Muffy to batting 8th just to punish him for fucking up so many chances.

[Edgy MD]

I'd love to give Tejada a chance, but like Duda, his confidence seems so fragile, I'm loathe to put him in a spot that makes him more of a lightning rod.

[Vic Sage]

Ceetar wrote: Well, the only non-pitchers with OBP higher than Tejada are Abreu (likely baBIP/luck driven and small sample size)...

Abreu has nearly a .400 CAREER OB%. Even as he's faded over the last few years, he's never been at less than .350. So are you really going to say that his current success in that category is a statistical anomaly? Yes, he may not end up at his current .390 by the end of the season, but even a .350 OB% would make him about the same as Murphy, and better than either Lagares or Tejada, both this year and over their careers to date. So, until Lagares and/or EY comes back, I'd platoon Abreu with Campbell and let either one lead off (Campbell has a .380 lifetime OB% in the minors). Or you could go with the hot hand in Tejada, and let him hit there until he cools off. Perhaps one or both of the other guys will be back by then.

But over the long term, I don't trust Tejada as far as i can throw him, and Murphy is solid in the 2 slot, so you'd just be creating a hole there if you moved him up. Ditto with Duda, whose power is desperately needed in the middle of the order. And i don't see anybody else on the roster who is suitable in the short or long term.

Looking at AAA, Puello has some skills and a lot of upside, but he'd need to improve greatly his BB/K ratio to make that work, as would both denDekker and Nieuenheis (neither of whom have Puello's speed or bat), and Danny Muno seems like a utility IFer to me. The other guys down there with good minor-league OB% numbers (Brown, Seratelli, Lutz, Satin, Dykstra, Allen) are either career minor-leaguers or project out as (lower) middle-of-the-order guys who i don't think would be usable in the leadoff slot at the major league level. Maybe Seratelli, if he could hit up here like he does down there. And if Terry has given Tejada back his job, then we may as well send Flores down so he can play everyday and give Seratelli another shot at the backup MI slot.

With regard to the lower minors, as was rightly said, projecting out from AA or lower levels is just too speculative to consider.

[Ceetar]

Am I going to say the guy who wasn't even in baseball last year and sucked the year before that is going to maintain quality value based off 59 PA? Absolutely not.

He hasn't slugged like this since he played in Yankee Stadium nearly 10 years ago. He's been helpful so far. surprising, but I wouldn't bank on it continuing and certainly wouldn't go out of my way to make sure he plays. The sooner the other teams realize he still has the bat speed to get one out and isn't just an over the hill guy just hanging on, the less he's going to get to hit. Sure, he still has the discipline to walk if they throw balls, but I'm just not going to make decisions based on 59 PA. I could list you 100 guys you've never heard of that have better numbers over that type of sample.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: Am I going to say the guy who wasn't even in baseball last year and sucked the year before that is going to maintain quality value based off 59 PA? Absolutely not.

You're sticking to your antipathy of Abreu, and missing the evidence of your own eyes.

I think the argument has been made and made again that there's a lot more to judge him by. Just look at him play. He's a fat old dude who brings very little on defense and could break down tomorrow, but until then, every plate appearance is a privilege to watch. And that's a cool drink of water in an offensive desert.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Ceetar wrote: Am I going to say the guy who wasn't even in baseball last year and sucked the year before that is going to maintain quality value based off 59 PA? Absolutely not. You're sticking to your antipathy of Abreu, and missing the evidence of your own eyes. I think the argument has been made and made again that there's a lot more to judge him by. Just look at him play. He's a fat old dude who brings very little on defense and could break down tomorrow, but until then, every plate appearance is a privilege to watch. And that's a cool drink of water in an offensive desert.

59 PA is not evidence, it's a small sample size and the recent past doesn't suggest it's going to stick.

It's not an antipathy of Abreu so much as strong evidence that 40 year old bad outfielders who haven't played good baseball in years almost never come out of nowhere to be more than passingly useful.

I certainly don't find every plate appearance a privilege to watch. I've got Wright and Lagares and Duda and Murphy and occasionally Granderson to watch if I want to see good AB.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: 59 PA is not evidence, it's a small sample size and the recent past doesn't suggest it's going to stick.

You're just going to keep doing that, aren't you?

[Edgy MD]

Abreu has been to the plate almost 10,000 times as a major leaguer. Much of that is less relevant, because it's well behind him. That doesn't make it [u:2ypjnxdf]non-[/u:2ypjnxdf]relevant.

If you're not enjoying his performance, I'm not sure what to say. It's been a gift, from my perspective. The guy's plate judgement is just spectacular. He doesn't even cock his bat on balls off the plate. They miss by a mere inch or two and he's taking from the moment they leave the pitcher's hand, sometimes with two strikes. He should be an ump when he packs it in.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Ceetar wrote: 59 PA is not evidence, it's a small sample size and the recent past doesn't suggest it's going to stick. You're just going to keep doing that, aren't you?

citing facts? yeah, sorry.

[Edgy MD]

No, returning to the same fact when people try and point out a broader array.

That's ONE fact. There's no reason to be sarcastic.

[batmagadanleadoff]

You'ree both right, ceets and sage. Abreu was once a star. Now he's old. I mean, Moises Alou isn't playing any more. Neither is Hank Aaron. Abreu's got a track record but who would be surprised if his production plummets drastically?

We'll see what happens. What else is there to do?

[Edgy MD]

Nobody would be surprised. But one outfielder is on the DL and another is apparently heading there, while the whole team is desperate for offense. Even Rusty Staub was briefly tried as an actual outfielder for a few days at the end of his career during a pinch. Pinches happen.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: No, returning to the same fact when people try and point out a broader array. That's ONE fact. There's no reason to be sarcastic.

Just because you think the stuff Abreu did in CBP in 2005, and before and after, is significantly relevant to today doesn't make it so.

When you're 40 and the results over the last 3+ years are subpar. That's the most recent sample. 59 PA is basically nothing and is certainly not reason to think he's reverted to a player that he hasn't been in years and therefore deserves MORE AB and responsibility.

People that know him better than we do even looked at him, closely, and decided he didn't really have any of value left. 59 PA doesn't make those people wrong.

If Chris Young was even remotely hitting this would be a moot point, and if Juan is hurt again, well.. but personally I'd rather see if I could mine any value out of den Dekker or Nieuwenhuis or Puello before I played Abreu more. Even if their is more weight on Abreu's side of that equation, the upside of discovering something in one of the others is too great, in my opinion, to give more work to Abreu.

And yes, if we're suddenly finding ourselves awash of OF playing time because of these injuries and such, it doesn't really matter. ride Bobby if he's hitting, but certainly don't bat him leadoff and give him more AB than everyone else. It annoys me that for righty/lefty ordering they bat him ahead of Duda.

[Edgy MD]

Amazin'.

Ceetar wrote: No, returning to the same fact when people try and point out a broader array. That's ONE fact. There's no reason to be sarcastic. Just because you think the stuff Abreu did in CBP in 2005, and before and after, is significantly relevant to today doesn't make it so.

And just because you think it's not doesn't make it so. Where does that leave us? With you citing the same datum over and over? At least that beats the one you made up about him starting three times in six games when other players were healthy.

Ceetar wrote: When you're 40...

I am! I'm even older!

Ceetar wrote: ...and the results over the last 3+ years are subpar. That's the most recent sample.

I think you're failing to construct a sentence here.

Ceetar wrote: 59 PA is basically nothing and is certainly not reason to think he's reverted to a player that he hasn't been in years and therefore deserves MORE AB and responsibility.

Which of course is not the claim.

Ceetar wrote: People that know him better than we do even looked at him, closely, and decided he didn't really have any of value left. 59 PA doesn't make those people wrong.

Other people looked at him and decided otherwise. They are real people too.

Ceetar wrote: If Chris Young was even remotely hitting this would be a moot point,

Well, he's not and this is the situation before us.

Ceetar wrote: and if Juan is hurt again, well..

Well!

Ceetar wrote: but personally I'd rather see if I could mine any value out of den Dekker or Nieuwenhuis or Puello before I played Abreu more.

That's great.

Ceetar wrote: Even if their...

"there"

Ceetar wrote: ... is more weight on Abreu's side of that equation...

I thought you were suggesting there was no weight.

Ceetar wrote: ...there was the upside of discovering something in one of the others is too great, in my opinion, to give more work to Abreu.

Fine. But these players aren't going anywhere, and haven't yet made strong cases for themselves as hitters. And there are still games to win. This subject was indeed brought up framed with concerns for the short-term, the near-long-term, and the long-term.

Ceetar wrote: And yes, if we're suddenly finding ourselves awash of OF playing time because of these injuries and such, it doesn't really matter.

Then why are you being so impossibly intransigent?

Ceetar wrote: ... ride Bobby if he's hitting, ...

That's the idea.

Ceetar wrote: ... but certainly don't bat him leadoff and give him more AB than everyone else. It annoys me that for righty/lefty ordering they bat him ahead of Duda.

I promise you that he'll go away soon enough.

But short-term, the team still needs an answer.

[batmagadanleadoff]

[fimg=544:2hxncxjs]http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/Kkue1ns4XvU/hqdefault.jpg[/fimg:2hxncxjs]

[Edgy MD]

Hee...

[Vic Sage]

First of all, stating "59 PAs is not evidence" is just factually incorrect. Of course it's evidence; it just may not be sufficiently reliable evidence (because of its sample size) to project his production going forward. But setting up a "straw man" argument claiming i'm judging Abreu on 59 PAs is just bullshit.

Even discounting the 12 years when he averaged over a .400 OB%, Abreu has had over 1300 ABs over his last 3 major league seasons, consistently hitting .250-.255/80-90 BB, .350-.355 OB%. That's enough of a sample size to see that, as of today, he's a viable option in the lineup. Do i think he's likely to maintain his current .390 OB% pace? No. But another season of .250/80 BB/.350 OB% seems totally possible, which, under our current roster and injury circumstances, makes him a viable option to discuss as a leadoff guy until the troops return.

As for your pet agenda, Tejada, talk about small sample sizes. As of May 20, 7 games ago, he was hitting .183/.299 OB. Over the last 7 games he's gone 10/24, 5bb, to bring his numbers all the way up to .226/.334 OB over the season to date (133 ABs). And those 24 ABs are the sample size you want to use to say he should lead off? But, when you add this season to last year's .202/.259 OB% over 200+ ABs and the last 2 months of the year before (2012), when he hit .260 with just over a .305-.310 OB% over 200+ ABs, then I think you have a pretty significant sample size of total awfulness.

That being said, and as i mentioned above, i wouldn't be averse to playing the hot hand and letting Tejada lead off until he tanks again. If he maintains it, then great. But if not, we shouldn't be married to him because he's 24 and he had a decent (not great) season a few years ago. And i think this is alot more likely than Terry batting Abreu/Campbell leadoff for a few weeks. I just don't know that it's more likely to be more productive.

on edit: None of those AAA OFers have showed even at that level that they are ready to hit major league pitching.

[Ceetar]

Vic Sage wrote: on edit: None of those AAA OFers have showed even at that level that they are ready to hit major league pitching.

In his last 56 PA last season (which is pretty close to Abreu's sample this year)

Kirk Nieuwenhuis hit .245/.339/.449.
21 PA this year .222/.286/.444 for a 105 OPS+.

It's not enough to show he's ready to hit major league pitching consistently, but he also plays good defense and is faster.

Or hell, play Campbell out there. You can still use Abreu in a pinch, he's not going anywhere. Maybe you can get something more out of these other guys given the the chances.

As for Tejada, even a week ago he had a averagish OBP. At least he's not making outs. He's not really a drive guys in player, so you're not missing much batting him first. Plus while he's not fast, he's not really slow either so can do the first to third, score from second stuff without clogging the bases.

[nymr83]

Abreu is doing it right now and has an entire career history of showing he can do it, why not stick him there until he proves he can't instead of sticking someone who hasn't done it there to try and prove he can?

*"it" being get on base

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I understand Abreu is about a million years old but the whole "he didn't even play last year" thing is a bit of a red herring inasmuch as there's little reason to doubt the story of the Mets having been impressed with his work in Venezuela over the winter. That is to say, had he played like a old piece of shit there they wouldn't have asked. They saw something, and Abreu's performance so far indicates as much. I do not live in fear the team will build the lineup around him or that his presence will have repercussions for future generations of Mets, or any of that shit. He's just doing what he does.

On a related note, I also wanna tell fans who'd point to him and Colon on the roster as a signal the team isn't "committed" to youth, as though that in itself were a goal, to bite bhmc.

[Vic Sage]

yeah, right? Youth isn't a virtue of a ballclub in and of itself. Its a byproduct of a roster construction that seeks to buy out the best parts of a player's career before they become too costly and start to decline (usually at about the same time). But the only thing we know about a young player is that, given time and luck, he has the chance to one day be older.