Off-season FA news (non-NYM edition)

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Phil Hughes to the Twins: 3/24. I guess that's the outerest limits of what I would offer.

[metirish]

Damn, I will echo what Lefty said above.

mediocrity never paid so good.

what will Big Pelf get in this market?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

metirish wrote: what will Big Pelf get in this market?

1 yr/ $3.5 million. From the Mets.

[metirish]

"drinking the piss"

[Guest sharpie]

Scott Kazmir to A's. 2 years, 22 mils.

[ashie62]

sharpie wrote: Scott Kazmir to A's. 2 years, 22 mils.

This is astounding...

[Frayed Knot]

All this coming nearly twelve years after Billy Beane cheered the selection of Kazmir so as to clear the way for his dream draft choice of Nick Swisher.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

It's a little higher than I thought he'd get, but it's only astounding if you, y'know, don't actually look at baseball play involving Scott Kazmir.

He was a 2.5 WAR guy last year, and only got better as the season continued (Second-Half: 13 starts, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.23 K/9, 2.29 BB/9), including a return to near-peak velocity and a dropping home-run rate over the last three months... in a pennant race, no less. He's also 29.

[Guest sharpie]

20th Century Boy AJ Pierzynski to Bosox for 1 year/8.25 mils.

[Vic Sage]

BBRef says Kazmir was a 1.1 WAR guy in 2013 (not 2.5) but, regardless what his WAR was, he hasn't had a season with either 30+ starts or 180+ IP since his career year of 2007, at age 23. Over the last 5 years, he had negative WARs each season from 2009-2011 and didn't even pitch in the majors in 2012 (he pitched poorly for an independent league team that year). Yeah, he had a nice season for Cleveland last year (not great, but good), but he still only gave them 150 IP and had the highest ERA on the staff. That he finished well last year is no more predictive of this year's performance (and that of 2015 too) than a strong finish by Ike Davis in 2012 was predictive of a strong start for him in 2013.

So no, I don't think it's irrational to think that investing 2yr/$22m on such a guy is high risk, to say the least. But, given his limited resources, Billy boy has to make high risk moves if he wants the As to stay competitive.

[ashie62]

Tigers send Doug Fister to Nats for Steve Lombardozzi and two prospects..

They better be good ones lol..

[seawolf17]

Stony Brook's Joe Nathan AGAIN NOT TO THE METS, instead to Detroit for two years. Actually, that'll work, because then we can acquire him for the 2015 stretch run.

Twitter says Beltran has a 3/$48M offer on the table somewhere (Seattle?), apparently.

[Edgy MD]

Hmmm... Is Beltran worth to you and your Mets 1.87 Chris Youngs. Yes, I feel relatively safe saying that.

Will he be worth that each of the next three years? Hurm...

[ashie62]

seawolf17 wrote: Stony Brook's Joe Nathan AGAIN NOT TO THE METS, instead to Detroit for two years. Actually, that'll work, because then we can acquire him for the 2015 stretch run. Twitter says Beltran has a 3/$48M offer on the table somewhere (Seattle?), apparently.

3/48 if true is not tough to beat Jeff...

[seawolf17]

That's 3/$48+, plus a draft pick. $16M+ for a 39-year-old in 2016. Unless you're pretty confident that the NL will have the DH by then...

[Ceetar]

seawolf17 wrote: That's 3/$48+, plus a draft pick. $16M+ for a 39-year-old in 2016. Unless you're pretty confident that the NL will have the DH by then...

only a second rounder for the Mets though.

[Frayed Knot]

seawolf17 wrote: Stony Brook's Joe Nathan AGAIN NOT TO THE METS, instead to Detroit for two years. Actually, that'll work, because then we can acquire him for the 2015 stretch run.

Seems like Dombrowski is focusing his Tigers towards rebuilding the bullpen, definitely a weakness of the 2013 squad after Jose Valverde went into the tank in late 2012.
Nathan takes over as closer; Ian Krol from the Fister trade, youngster Bruce Rondon (who they tried to shoe-horn into the closer role too early) plus possibly the minor league Ray who came in the same trade as Krol become set-up men; and that all allows Drew Smyly to move from the pen and take over Fister's slot in the rotation.

Throw in Kinsler + 3B prospect Castellanos replacing Fielder + Infante and they're not looking too bad providing they can get another good year out of the aging Toriiiiii Hunter.

Edited December 3, 2013 by Guest

[seawolf17]

I'm just saying that it wouldn't kill Joe Nathan to sign with the Mets, JUST ONCE.

[Frayed Knot]

seawolf17 wrote: I'm just saying that it wouldn't kill Joe Nathan to sign with the Mets, JUST ONCE.

Sure, except that if I had to recommend to Sandy where NOT to spend major money this off-season it would be in the closer's spot.
Buying closers on the open market is a questionable strategy in most cases (although the Tigers may be in that spot) and especially so in our condition right now.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: seawolf17 wrote: I'm just saying that it wouldn't kill Joe Nathan to sign with the Mets, JUST ONCE. Sure, except that if I had to recommend to Sandy where NOT to spend major money this off-season it would be in the closer's spot. Buying closers on the open market is a questionable strategy in most cases (although the Tigers may be in that spot) and especially so in our condition right now.

our condition being "having one already" or "not likely to score enough runs to close games"?

[Edgy MD]

Our condition being "having one already" and "hopefully savvy enough or tempered-by-experience enough to realize the closer marketplace is a fool's paradise."

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think the Mets feel that they already have two closers: Parnell and Black.

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: our condition being "having one already" or "not likely to score enough runs to close games"?

More the former than the latter.
But there's also the concept of having a limited budget with other holes to fill. And then there's the whole thing about the erratic nature of closers, the relatively short span of greatness even the good ones tend to have, the marginal difference between the edge a supposedly "great" one will give you as compared to just a decent one and the difficulty in predicting which will be which, and so on.

As I talked about towards the end of the year-long Adventures in Closerland thread, a number of what turned out to be the top closers in 2013 didn't even start out the year with that job in the same way that some of the ones who started there didn't finish. And that a team even keeping the same closer for more than a year or two at a time is more the exception than the rule.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Ceetar wrote: our condition being "having one already" or "not likely to score enough runs to close games"? More the former than the latter. But there's also the concept of having a limited budget with other holes to fill. And then there's the whole thing about the erratic nature of closers, the relatively short span of greatness even the good ones tend to have, the marginal difference between the edge a supposedly "great" one will give you as compared to just a decent one and the difficulty in predicting which will be which, and so on. As I talked about towards the end of the year-long Adventures in Closerland thread, a number of what turned out to be the top closers in 2013 didn't even start out the year with that job in the same way that some of the ones who started there didn't finish. And that a team even keeping the same closer for more than a year or two at a time is more the exception than the rule.

Think it was at Beyond the Box Score, but relievers who weren't "proven closers" out-closed their proven brethren by a hefty margin last year.

Of course, that just means they've all become proven, and likely this year will continue to perform well this year as proven closers.

[ashie62]

The twitterverse in pitching Nelson Cruz to the MFS's Choo to the Tigers..an MYF offer to Omar Infante and Beltran to several..

The board is moving..Anybody seen Mets attached to any FA??

[Ceetar]

Ashie62 wrote: The twitterverse in pitching Nelson Cruz to the MFS's Choo to the Tigers..an MYF offer to Omar Infante and Beltran to several.. The board is moving..Anybody seen Mets attached to any FA??

Curtis Granderson.

Chris Young.

[ashie62]

Chris Young the Pitcher??

[ashie62]

Frayed Knot wrote: Ceetar wrote: our condition being "having one already" or "not likely to score enough runs to close games"? More the former than the latter. But there's also the concept of having a limited budget with other holes to fill. And then there's the whole thing about the erratic nature of closers, the relatively short span of greatness even the good ones tend to have, the marginal difference between the edge a supposedly "great" one will give you as compared to just a decent one and the difficulty in predicting which will be which, and so on. As I talked about towards the end of the year-long Adventures in Closerland thread, a number of what turned out to be the top closers in 2013 didn't even start out the year with that job in the same way that some of the ones who started there didn't finish. And that a team even keeping the same closer for more than a year or two at a time is more the exception than the rule.

Parnell et al should do just fine...

[metirish]

Elsbury to the MFY's for seven years.......wow


sorry, apparently this is the case.

[ashie62]

Same as it ever was...