Raising the Jolly Roger? ... aka: Down the Stretch: NL Style

[Frayed Knot]

With the races in the East (16 games) & West (12) effectively being over for a while now, the action is all in the Central plus the outside shot that either Washington or Arizona (7 games out each) gets hot enough to snag the final WC slot.

Pirates ---
Cardinals -1.5
Reds -3.0

* Pittsburgh looks for win #82 tonight but, seeing as how they're in St Louis for the weekend, they kind of have bigger [crossout:61ex1wwq]fish[/crossout:61ex1wwq] birds to fry right now than merely worrying about the formality of notching their first winning season since GWH Bush was in the White House.
Cards are coming off losing 2 of 3 to Cincy which keeps that division a three-team race at least for a while.
Final series of the year between the two teams. Burnett vs Kelly tonight.

* Cincy hosts the Dodgers for the weekend.
Capuano vs Leake

* Nationals are in Miami. DBacks in San Fran

[MFS62]

Beat 'Em, Bucs.

Later

[Zvon]

Over the last two weeks I have watched 2 Pirate games. I'm getting into it. Gonna watch more in the stretch. Im gonna squeeze in between two real Buc fans, take a seat, and celebrate vicariously when they clinch. Just to remind myself of what celebrating feels like.

[G-Fafif]

Fine story inside. Best tidbit: the pastor who buys a ten-pack of Pirates tix every season but only for games early in the year because he knows people are giving them away by September. Nobody's giving them away this September. And he doesn't mind at all.

[Zvon]

Fine story inside. Best tidbit: the pastor who buys a ten-pack of Pirates tix every season but only for games early in the year because he knows people are giving them away by September. Nobody's giving them away this September. And he doesn't mind at all.

Someone will take care of that guy.

So he's on the cover of SI in a pic that almost makes it look like he's breaking his ankle. If he was grimacing it really would look that way. Lets see if the curse of the cover covers that.

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

Love the throwback uniform, too! Was that a one-off, or have they been wearing those a lot this year and I didn't notice?

[batmagadanleadoff]

That uniform takes me back to the roots of my baseball lovin' childhood.

[batmagadanleadoff]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: That uniform takes me back to the roots of my baseball lovin' childhood.

McCutcheon could sure use some stirrups, not that I'm complaining.

[Frayed Knot]

The Pirates get to 81 wins -- and then promptly lose their next four while getting out-scored 35-13.
That three of those losses were to StL made it even worse.
You don't suppose ... ?


Pitt & Cincy are tied for the two WC slots while Washington & Arizona, the only other contenders, have been essentially spinning their wheels at a time where they have to be not just making up territory but pretty much gulping it up.

[Gwreck]

That's the last of Pittsburgh's games head-to-head with St. Louis. The Pirates were 7-2 at home and 1-5 on the road in the second half of this season against St. Louis.

Things don't get easier for them yet, as they start a three game series in Texas tonight. They do have 7 games against the Cubs remaining, as well as another 6 against Cincinnati, which may well be critical to determining which of the three NL Central teams gets the division (with the other two getting the wild cards, a 98% certainty per ESPN playoff projections).

[Frayed Knot]

Well, we did our best to make the NL WC race interesting by laying down for the Nationals and allowing them to continue their hot last month (17-5 since Aug 20).
They still have a ways to go but have now clawed their way to 5.5 behind current #2 WC Cincy while Pitt's sweep of Texas got them to a tie with StL atop the Central 2.5 up on the Reds. Arizona at 9.0 games back seems like a dead issue.


Pitt & Cincy play each other six times more this season including the final three and six of the final nine, something that would seem to be an advantage for Saint Louie but maybe a disadvantage for the Nats. If you're Washington I figure you've got to see which team is better at the time when they meet and root for that squad to sweep all six games.
The Cards sked features Seattle, Colorado (4), Milwaukee, the Cubs, and ... Washington


This weekend is a bit of a mini-breather for each even if every game remains super important: Cubs @ Pitt, Seattle @ Cards, Reds @ Milwaukee

[G-Fafif]

Washington pulls to within 4 1/2 of Cincy. Nats dead yet?

[youtube:2ktgdis7]0Qth8xNZvVM[/youtube:2ktgdis7]

[Frayed Knot]

Cincy has got to be hearing footsteps by now
Friday night they were in Milwaukee while the Nats learned at the last minute that Strasburg would be unable to go due to 'forearm tightness'* -- but then Kyle Lohse threw a complete game for the 5-1 Brews win while Ross Ohlendorf stepped in with 5 innings of one-run ball backed by 4 shutout bullpen innings for a 6-1 win vs the Phils. I believe all six Nats runs came via Ryan Zimmerman & Wilson Ramos HRs but I'm still checking into that.**




* Davey says that Strasburg's missed start is "a non-issue" as far as the future goes, but someone in baseball once said that ALL elbow problems start as "forearm tightness"

** Only one HR each as it turns out





- Pirates lost to the Cubs when a potential 2-Run / 2-out / 9th inning / game-winning HR died on the warning track.

- StL beat Seattle (whoop-de-damn-doo ... we could beat Seattle) in the 10th when Ollie Perez was brought in with two outs and a runner on 1st base.
He promptly went Walk - Walk - Passed Ball
To be fair to Ollie, the passed ball hit the catcher right in the center of his glove - but of course it's the fact that he put himself in that situation in the first place that's the problem.
Ollie not having as good a year for the Mariners as last season -- but he still just turned 32 y/o!!

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

I'm tired of the baseball media calling for a Boston-Los Angeles World Series. I want a 1903 World Series rematch.

[Frayed Knot]

Innuresting stuff in DC.
Nationals clawed back from 5-1 down to get it to 5-4.
Zimmerman doubles in the 9th - Papelbon gets two outs -- now they're intentionally walking Harper (aka: putting the winning run on base) to get to Ramos

... and Ramos smokes a hard one-hopper to Rollins and the Phils/Papelbon hold on.


Tough day for the Nats with Cincy winning.
After knocking off a game yesterday, now they're back to where they were only with two games off the schedule. That's the tough part about coming back from so far, you have so little margin for error.

[Edgy MD]

Braves @ Nats: "Postponed, Tragedy."

[Frayed Knot]

The Reds were yesterday's major winner in the NL races (Central and WC) as they gained a full game on the losing Cardinals and Pirates (Pitt almost got no-hit by SD) and a half-game on the Nats who were idled by a madman.

The Nats are making up yesterday's postponement by playing a day/night with the Braves.
In the day portion they jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the 1st inning, then got one hit for innings 2-8 while the Braves took a 5-3 lead
In the 9th the Nats just scored three off Kimbrel to win the game - the last two coming via a one-out grounder going through the legs of Simmons at SS.

Seeing as how the Nats have to practically run the table to stay in the mix, a win like this is huge.
As it is, things are getting a bit tight.

Edited September 17, 2013 by Guest

[Guest cooby]

Go Bucs! It's been a long long time...

[Frayed Knot]

Well Coobs, your Bucs blew a bad one last night.
Three straight 2-out 9th inning singles netted the Padres 2 runs and a stunning win over Pittsburgh (blown save: Mark Melancon)
Pirates have now lost 3 straight to SD and finish the series this afternoon.

- Cardinals pulled to 2 games ahead in the Central with a 4-3 win over Rockies, but it wasn't sealed until StL closer Edward Mujica K'd Todd Helton with the bases loaded in the 9th

- Reds won in the 13th in Houston. They scored twice in the top of the inning then held on while Aroldis Chapman gave one run back then finally got the final out with the tying and winning runners on.

- Nationals had a 2-0 lead early but then lost to Atlanta 5-2. Coupled with the Cincy win, that just about kills their WC chances


Cardinals now lead the Central by 2 over Pitt and 2.5 over the Reds
Plus, Cincy & Pitt play each other six times over the final nine games, an arrangement which is almost guaranteed to keep StL ahead of one or both of them.


Wild Card
PIT +0.5
CIN ---
WAS -5.5
ARZ -9.0

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

Avast ye scurvy Padres!

[Gwreck]

Pirates get a game back after the Cardinals lose in the 15th inning in Denver today.

Let's go Bucs.

--

If the Pirates and Cardinals should tie for the division, game #163 on Monday 9/30 would be played in Pittsburgh for the division championship.
The wild card game would be Tuesday in St. Louis (if the Cardinals lose) and location TBD* (if the Pirates lose).


*Pirates and Reds still have 6 head-to-head games left

[Edgy MD]

I'm not sure I don't prefer using tiebreakers like head-to-head record, divisional record, league record, run differential, like the NFL does.

Not sure I do, either.

[Frayed Knot]

Essentially meaningless (especially once you get beyond head-to-head) tie-breaker scenarios (best intra-conference record among common opponents times points allowed squared) as a way to determine seeding among playoff teams is one thing but using it as the final word on who's in and who's out should be a crime IMO.
The NFL does it because they essentially leave themselves no choice; their whole schedule is so rigidly formatted that there's no room for variations. If there are five 9-7 teams at season's end but only room for three to move on, their checklist of tie-breakers goes into effect to select three and eject two simply for convenience sake not because any of them actually determine greater worth as demonstrated on the field.

[Gwreck]

The tiebreakers are head-to-head records. The coin-flip for home field advantage for tiebreaker games is a thing of the past.

[Frayed Knot]

Todd Helton got his revenge.
Wednesday night in a one-run game the Rox loaded the bases in the 9th against StL closer Mujica but Helton struck out to end the game.
In Thursday's game, Mujica again came in to protect a one-run lead in the 9th but this time Helton hit the first pitch of the inning for a game-tying HR.
In that game, the Cards scored one in the 8th - then the Rox tied it up. The Cards scored again in the 9th - then the Rox tied it up.


StL takes their one game lead on the road to Milwaukee this weekend while the Reds and Pirates square off in Pittsburgh.
The technically still in it Nationals host the Marlins and will certainly be rooting for the Pitt/Cincy series (both this weekend's and next) to be decisive one way or the other - preferably in Pitt's favor since they're one game closer to the Reds.

[HahnSolo]

AND, Helton pulled off a hidden ball trick in the game.

[Frayed Knot]

HahnSolo wrote: AND, Helton pulled off a hidden ball trick in the game.

That's right, I did see that. Classic.



Pirates tonight blew a 3-run lead in the 9th to Cincy. Second straight blown save for Melancon. Not sure how and how often they're using Grille these days.
He's back off the DL but never regained his closer spot.
In the middle of the Reds 9th inning rally was another PR appearance by Billy Hamilton. 1st pitch SB followed by scoring on an infield single.

StL down 4-2 in the 7th in Milwaukee.

[Gwreck]

Pirates kept in tied but then Votto homered in the top of the 10th. Just a horrible loss for them.

Should all three teams tie for the division, there would be a three-team tiebreak over two days, in which the teams are "A" "B" and "C."

Monday: Team A at Team B. Loser is a wild card.
Tuesday: Team C plays at winner of A/B. Winner is division winner. Loser is wildcard.
Wednesday: Wildcard game. Loser goes home.

[Frayed Knot]

I count that as only the 10th time this season that a 3-run/1-inning save has been botched and the Bucs picked a helluva time to do it.
In fairness to Melancon it wasn't entirely his fault. One huge error and a two-run infield single that went off two different gloves contributed. But, still, he had two outs and only one run in and never finished the inning.

That game had to be a bit of a killer for Washington as well. They won easily but wake up this morning the same distance from the WC#2 spot as they were before Friday's games.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, do what they always seem to do: Get 16 hits and score 2 in the 7th, 1 in the 9th, then, after blowing a save, 1 more in the 10th to beat Milwaukee 7-6
And now they're back to a 2.0 game lead over two teams that have to battle each other for five more games while they only have the Nats to worry about sandwiched in between the Brewers and Cubs.

[G-Fafif]

Pirate loss on 9/20/2013 about as brutal (from their perspective) as the Pirate loss on 9/20/1973. Except they've got all kinds of fallback playoff spots these days to cushion the blow. But still, Votto's ball didn't bounce off the top of any wall.