Raising the Jolly Roger? ... aka: Down the Stretch: NL Style

[Frayed Knot]

Zvon wrote: I disagree. If Adams stayed on the bag I dont think that ump will call a tie an out there. And I do think he could have reached the throw w/o coming off the bag. Wow. Good job by the kid pitcher.

The throw certainly had the runner beat, I just don't think he could have stayed on the base and stretched far enough.

[Zvon]

Frayed Knot wrote: Zvon wrote: I disagree. If Adams stayed on the bag I dont think that ump will call a tie an out there. And I do think he could have reached the throw w/o coming off the bag. Wow. Good job by the kid pitcher. The throw certainly had the runner beat, I just don't think he could have stayed on the base and stretched far enough.

I've seen it a few times now. It's certainly debatable and since I'm the only one sayin it I'll roll over.
YIP!

[Frayed Knot]

StL completes the sweep of Washington (Nats fans must be seeing those 'Birds on the Bat' in their nightmares).
This, along with our defeat of the Reds, eliminates Cincy from the Central division race. For them the only drama remains whether they or the Pirates get to host the one-game WC play-in game.

Actually the Pirates can still win the division - although the just-concluded StL sweep plus the 3R HR they just served up to the Cubs is making that more and more unlikely.
4-1 Cubs in the 6th at Wrigley.

[Edgy MD]

Chicago takes it 4-2. Pittsburgh should still fly to Phoenix to pee in the pool.

[Frayed Knot]

So Pitt is now down 3 games to the Cards with 3 to go.
That means they'd have to run the table vs Cincy while the Cards get swept by the Cubs. Hmmmm not likely.

So the Pitt/Cincy season-ending series turns out to be nothing more than a warm-up and a determinate of home-field for the one-game play-in. The math is pretty simple as the winner of the series wins the home game.
A Pitt win -- of either 2-1 or 3-0 -- means they finish higher and host the game.
A Cincy 3-0 sweep means they finish higher, while Cincy taking 2-of-3 puts them in a flat-footed tie but would also give Cincy the game as the Reds would then hold a 10-9 edge in the head-to-head season series.



Watching a few of the games this week, the Pirate & Reds announcers seemed overly concerned with each other and not so much with St Louis even though that was the bigger prize. Now obviously it's better to host the game than not (especially if you're the Pirates and haven't had a playoff game in your town since, like, the FDR administration) but a 1-game series is the ultimate crap-shoot and the REAL home-field edge is how good your starting pitcher is that day.
And it's looking increasingly like the winner of the play-in game is just going to turn around and play the Cards anyway while the Braves & Dodgers fight it out.

[Edgy MD]

So, is homefield advantage that important, or do you save your top starter for the play-in game?

The question seems academic, as it isn't really clear who either team's top starter is. Cueto and Liriano, I guess.

[Frayed Knot]

Given the choice between home field or the better pitcher I'll take the pitcher every time.

Not that it should be looked at as an either/or situation. Yesterday's hurlers, Latos & Liriano, would be on their regular day for starting the likely play-in game on Monday (or is it Tuesday?). Neither team has that one killer starter that you'd go all out to slot in instead of either of those two, nor do I think either manager should go all and burn ever weapon in their arsenals on Sunday just to have that one game on home turf.

I suspect, because of the long drought and the 50/50 shot of ending the season without ever selling a playoff ticket, that the home game is more important to Pirate mgmt and the city of Pittsburgh than it is to the Reds/Cincinnati, but there still isn't a lot you can do between Friday & Sunday that's going to make winning on Monday any more likely.
The overall advantage, of course, goes to whichever team the survivor will meet in round one which is the way the system was designed.