2013 IPP: Ruben Tejada

[Benjamin Grimm]

I like Ruben Tejada. I don't think that he's likely to be a future All-Star or anything like that, but he does seem to be good enough to be part of a contending team's infield. He may have a long run as the Mets shortstop, unless Gavin Cecchini says otherwise.

Anyway, for 2013, I expect similar numbers to what he's done in the past. .280, about 30 doubles. He will be among a small number of Mets (his fellow starting infielders) to get to 502 plate appearances.

[Ceetar]

I would love if he 'bulked up' a little, power wise, to get to 30 doubles.

I just hope he can get his OBP up a wee bit to more 2011 levels and still keep his slugging higher than that. Hopefully he stays healthy, because I don't really like the drop off to the other guys.

.292/.345/.360. 28 doubles, 1 HR. value-negative 10/15 SB. His typical average to slightly better defense at short. 2.8 WAR (misses the 3 because of the CS)

[Vic Sage]

An empty .275 -- no power, no speed -- with a decent, but not spectacular, glove. He's been a part-timer so far, either due to injury or performance, and i wouldn't be surprised to see him miss 40-50 games again this year. He hasn't broken 2WAR in a season yet, and i see no reason to think he will now.

He's an adequate place-holder until we're competitive again, and then he'll need to be replaced.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I seem to remember being a lot more excited about this guy's potential to be something at this time last year but his stock is down in my mind.

Hopeful he can boost his OBP and XBHs to a point where he's more than an average player but not really counting on it. Prove me wrong, Ruben!

1-25-289/333/351 in 501 PA. Yes, that's his line from last year too.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Vic Sage wrote: An empty .275 -- no power, no speed -- with a decent, but not spectacular, glove. He's been a part-timer so far, either due to injury or performance, and i wouldn't be surprised to see him miss 40-50 games again this year. He hasn't broken 2WAR in a season yet, and i see no reason to think he will now. He's an adequate place-holder until we're competitive again, and then he'll need to be replaced.

He broke 2 wins last year, as per Fangraphs... starting 2/3 of the season; he was on pace for more than that the year before. His walk rate backslid a lot, but before that had increased in three straight seasons, to just shy of 10 percent (and patience/pitch selection tends only to increase with time, no?). His line-drive percentage and slugging went up-- he's hitting the ball harder; if the patience returns-- even in part-- he'll be better this year... maybe significantly.

You want to get rid of a cheap 3-win shortstop? It would be prudent to replace him with someone who's All-Star level, or even cheaper/just as solid; it's tougher than you think.

Gimme some bounce-back to a 7-8 percent BB rate, and this:

615 PA, 72 R, .289/.350/.368, 5 HR, 64 RBI, 33 XBH, some kind of clutchy cult nickname

Edited March 14, 2013 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

.304 / .381 / .422 / .794.

By the skin of Buddy Harrelson's glove, we should all have a batting average so empty as Ruben's.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: .304 / .381 / .422 / .794. By the skin of Buddy Harrelson's glove, we should all have a batting average so empty as Ruben's.

what's the fourth number?

[Edgy MD]

Bad math.

It should say .803.

[Vic Sage]

yeah, it should, but it's been .667 so far.

and the WAR was 1.9 last year, according to Baseball Reference.

And i didn't say we need to replace him now. And could we carry him in an otherwise strong lineup? yeah, i suppose so. we won one WS with Harrelson and one with Rafael Santana each getting most of the starts at SS.

But we won't need an "all-star" to replace him when we want an upgrade. Just a good player. someone with more than the 86 OPS+ he's managed to date.

[Ceetar]

If I'm reading this right, the NL OPS+ in 2012 for SS was 90. So he's not really far off.

The Mets were 8th in the league in SS OPS. Third in OBP and only one point behind the second place Nationals (first place is Marlins/Reyes)

5th in wRC.

He's not Jose Reyes, but that's basically the biggest problem with him.

[metirish]

5th in the WRC?

that's some good driving right there.

[metirish]

Seriously though

wRC � This is total runs created based of wOBA. It is calculated as (((wOBA � lgwOBA) / wOBAScale) + (lgR/PA)) * PA

WTF?

I like stats and all but again WTF is that?

[Ceetar]

metirish wrote: Seriously though wRC � This is total runs created based of wOBA. It is calculated as (((wOBA � lgwOBA) / wOBAScale) + (lgR/PA)) * PA WTF? I like stats and all but again WTF is that?

It's scaled like OPS+ in that 100 is average and you go by percentages off of that. It's basically multiplying how much more you get on base than league average by the average runs scored per PA by the league.

So last year players scored .114 runs per plate appearance for example. wOBA for the league was .315 (.304 for Ruben, so not great) so if you had a .315 you'd be at 100 if I'm reading that correctly. There are park/league adjustments as well in wRC+.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think I would have loved this stuff 30 years ago. Now I don't even care to think about it.

[Edgy MD]

His WAR is very much a product of his games played --- his injury curtailing his playing time and possibly surpressing his productivity upon his return. The second point is obviously speculative, as is whether you think is injury is indicative of a developing pattern or a harbinger of a chronic impingement on his abilities. Projected over a workload the size of Jose Reyes', for example, you get 2.6 WAR (using the lower bb-ref figure), comparable to Reyes' 2.8. That won't redeem last season, certainly, but it may promise more hope than his injury shortened season provides on its own.

It's easy to forget, but he was regularly thwacking doubles into the gap before his injury. He was hitting when he came back in July, but the doubles and walks weren't there. He's only 23, though, so I imagine he can still get his game firing on multiple cylinders at once. Jose Reyes was generally a less productive player than Ruben before he turned 23.

[Edgy MD]

His comparables through age 22 include some darn good players, including 2/3 of a poem.

[*:39g4mdc4]Ozzie Guillen (963)[/*:m:39g4mdc4]
[*:39g4mdc4]Mark Lewis (960)[/*:m:39g4mdc4]
[*:39g4mdc4]Joe Tinker (958)[/*:m:39g4mdc4]
[*:39g4mdc4]Granny Hamner (957)[/*:m:39g4mdc4]
[*:39g4mdc4]Johnny Evers (956)[/*:m:39g4mdc4]
[*:39g4mdc4]Mike Caruso (954)[/*:m:39g4mdc4]
[*:39g4mdc4]Bucky Dent (951)[/*:m:39g4mdc4]
[*:39g4mdc4]Donie Bush (949)[/*:m:39g4mdc4]
[*:39g4mdc4]Alfredo Griffin (949)[/*:m:39g4mdc4]
[*:39g4mdc4]Whitey Witt (946)[/*:m:39g4mdc4][/list:o:39g4mdc4]

Not exactly Ernie Banks and Robin Yount, but not the kind of players you sneeze at either. And of course, the first guy is the one who was so utterly lacking in Ruben's best asset --- a good eye for the strike zone.

[ashie62]

Needs to bulk up and play 150 games..Enough with the quad injuries...Bats .270 10SB not much else

I'll take Buddy Harrelson over this guy evey day..

How about pinch fielders? We do it in softball..

[Edgy MD]

If Buddy Harrelson was the Mets shortstop today, he might get hatfuls of hate.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'd hope that they'd cut him some slack. After all, he's 68 years old.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I'd hope that they'd cut him some slack. After all, he's 68 years old.

Still got more range than Derek Jeter though.

[Zvon]

.308 avg/8HR/55rbi/12sb

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy MD wrote: If Buddy Harrelson was the Mets shortstop today, he might get hatfuls of hate.

Hatfuls and hatfuls.

Longevity and sentiment aside, Buddy was Ruben minus the relative power.

[batmagadanleadoff]

[Frayed Knot]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Edgy MD wrote: If Buddy Harrelson was the Mets shortstop today, he might get hatfuls of hate. Hatfuls and hatfuls. Longevity and sentiment aside, Buddy was Ruben minus the relative power.

Harrelson had, IMO, a better glove & range, better speed (63 BSs of 78 for one 3-year stretch), drew lots of walks (career .091 OBA-BA rate), and did come up just as the most most pitching friendly era since the dead-ball days was reaching its peak.
Not that all that made him a great player, just one who was very dissimilar to Tejada.

[ashie62]

Maybe Tejada can become the Met Icon Harrelson is..

[Edgy MD]

I don't mean to suggest he was all that similar, tool-wise.

I only mean to suggest contemporary haters have less tolerance for players who persist at a position on solid but un-spectacular defense and modest but consistent offense.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Bud Harrelson was, at his peak, an all-star. He was more than adequate for the era that he played in. It's simply unfair to hold a player from 40 years ago to today's standards. Especially a shortstop, because the demands and requirements of the modern shortstop have likely evolved more so than any other position in baseball.

Edited March 15, 2013 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

And I mean to suggest that Tejada fills those needs at a comparable or better level to Harrelson's fulfillment of two generations ago.

We certainly have the tools to compare players across eras.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: And I mean to suggest that Tejada fills those needs at a comparable or better level to Harrelson's fulfillment of two generations ago. We certainly have the tools to compare players across eras.

I'm not disagreeing with anything you wrote on this topic, but I'd add that comparing players from different eras is not necessarily the same as holding a player from one era to the standards of another.

[dinosaur jesus]

Even out of the context of the time, I think Buddy compares pretty well with Tejada offensively. Similar OBP, with a lower batting average but more walks. And he was a better baserunner.

I like Ruben, though, and I see him continuing to progress: getting a little more patient, adding a little power. Just a little. I'll call a bit of a breakthrough this year: .294, .365, .380, with 30 doubles and 2 home runs.