2013 IPP: Johan Santana

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think Johan's last game as a Met will be in August, because he don't do September anymore.

I'm sure that the Mets would love to trade him for a prospect by the July 31 deadline, but I don't imagine there will be any takers, unless the Mets throw in about $10 million.

My guess is that Santana will have a nice streak or two where he pitches some good games, but his season will be, overall, mediocre. 6-6, 3.90 ERA. 19 starts.

He won't be back in 2014.

[Vic Sage]

He'll start on the DL, then join the rotation in May. Mediocre for 4-6 weeks, he'll get hot in June-July, which will be good enough for us to get back a prospect at the deadline. the playoff-bound team that picks him will get a few good starts out of him in August before he goes back on the DL down the stretch in September, leaving the team just short of a post-season. He'll become a FA, and no one will care. He'll get a cheap 1-year deal and pitch great in 2014, earning him a good 3-4 year deal thereafter. At which point he never pitches another game.

[Ceetar]

24 starts, 150IP, 8.5 K/9, 3.5 ERA. Finishes the season healthy, and with the Mets.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

$21 million of mediocrity.
6-6, 4.10, 21 starts, 134 IP

[Edgy MD]

Starts off 9-1. Finishes 10-7, 3.76.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I expect nothing. He'll pitch like he did last year, post no- hitter. That is, he'll suck. Then he'll get injured again. Is he a Hall of Famer? He's certainly got the peak. But has he done enough career-wise?

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: I expect nothing. He'll pitch like he did last year, post no- hitter. That is, he'll suck. Then he'll get injured again. Is he a Hall of Famer? He's certainly got the peak. But has he done enough career-wise?

I'll take the 3.6 ERA and an average of 6 IP over the 5 other starts in June(Post no-hitter, pre Reed Johnson) prorated to this year.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

22 starts, 134 IP, 9-8, 3.82 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 121 K/45 BB.

Gone with the September breeze.

[ashie62]

Hopefully more than zero starts

[batmagadanleadoff]

From Baseball Prospectus 2013:

Did you hear that the Mets finally threw a no-hitter? No! Well, they did. Santana tossed the gem on June 1, then missed about a month from July to August with an ankle sprain before finishing the year on the disabled list with back inflammation. Santana is not what he was, and he has almost no chance of being worth his $25.5 million salary in 2013. While he struck out batters at his best rate since leaving Minnesota, he also posted his worst walk rate since becoming a full-time starter. Even more alarmingly, after a career spent keeping his BABIP's at .285 or less (frequently much less), he finished worse than the league average in 2012. Were he simply a 33 year old former great, one might guess at bad luck or bad defense. As a 33 year old former great coming off a major shoulder injury and less able to find the strike zone than ever before, one suspects a more sinister and lasting cause. All of that said, Santana still has talent sufficient to be a number-three starter, and if the Mets are willing to eat his salary, a contending team might take him on that basis.

[Ceetar]

From Baseball Prospectus 2013: Did you hear that the Mets finally threw a no-hitter? No! Well, they did. Santana tossed the gem on June 1, then missed about a month from July to August with an ankle sprain before finishing the year on the disabled list with back inflammation. Santana is not what he was, and he has almost no chance of being worth his $25.5 million salary in 2013. While he struck out batters at his best rate since leaving Minnesota, he also posted his worst walk rate since becoming a full-time starter. Even more alarmingly, after a career spent keeping his BABIP's at .285 or less (frequently much less), he finished worse than the league average in 2012. Were he simply a 33 year old former great, one might guess at bad luck or bad defense. As a 33 year old former great coming off a major shoulder injury and less able to find the strike zone than ever before, one suspects a more sinister and lasting cause. All of that said, Santana still has talent sufficient to be a number-three starter, and if the Mets are willing to eat his salary, a contending team might take him on that basis.

Through the first 98 innings, it was .254 babip. Yes, his fastball velocity was down, but not as much as his slider and changeup velocity, meaning the differential actually got higher. Perhaps the .5/9 increase in walks was a result of being less willing to challenge a hitter with reduced velocity. He threw his slider twice as much in 2012, a pitch I would suspect is more often thrown out of the zone to induce swinging strikes? But if you do that more often, you're going to have guys smart enough to lay off more often too. I think the BABIP increase is a red herring.

[ashie62]

It may be as simple as there is a helluva lot of wear on that arm and not even Johan knows what he may or may not have left..

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

I think Johan is a six-inning pitcher who benefits from an improved bullpen. He'll go 11-8 with a 3.75 era.

[batmagadanleadoff]

From Baseball Prospectus 2013: Did you hear that the Mets finally threw a no-hitter? No! Well, they did. Santana tossed the gem on June 1, then missed about a month from July to August with an ankle sprain before finishing the year on the disabled list with back inflammation. Santana is not what he was, and he has almost no chance of being worth his $25.5 million salary in 2013. While he struck out batters at his best rate since leaving Minnesota, he also posted his worst walk rate since becoming a full-time starter. Even more alarmingly, after a career spent keeping his BABIP's at .285 or less (frequently much less), he finished worse than the league average in 2012. Were he simply a 33 year old former great, one might guess at bad luck or bad defense. As a 33 year old former great coming off a major shoulder injury and less able to find the strike zone than ever before, one suspects a more sinister and lasting cause. All of that said, Santana still has talent sufficient to be a number-three starter, and if the Mets are willing to eat his salary, a contending team might take him on that basis. Through the first 98 innings, it was .254 babip. Yes, his fastball velocity was down, but not as much as his slider and changeup velocity, meaning the differential actually got higher. Perhaps the .5/9 increase in walks was a result of being less willing to challenge a hitter with reduced velocity. He threw his slider twice as much in 2012, a pitch I would suspect is more often thrown out of the zone to induce swinging strikes? But if you do that more often, you're going to have guys smart enough to lay off more often too. I think the BABIP increase is a red herring.

Johan'll probably win two Cy Young Awards in 2013. Probably throw 100 complete games, too. A pitcher could probably dominate major league hitters with a 28 mph fastball because it's really all about speed differential. He could offset his slow fast ball by rolling changeup towards home plate, at about, say six mph. That'd fool the hitters, for sure.

[Ceetar]

I dunno, does this guy look fooled?

[Fman99]

metsguyinmichigan wrote: I think Johan is a six-inning pitcher who benefits from an improved bullpen. He'll go 11-8 with a 3.75 era.

Sounds reasonable to me.

[ashie62]

Ceetar wrote: I dunno, does this guy look fooled?

Thats cool..

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: I expect nothing. He'll pitch like he did last year, post no- hitter. That is, he'll suck. Then he'll get injured again. Is he a Hall of Famer? He's certainly got the peak. But has he done enough career-wise? I'll take the 3.6 ERA and an average of 6 IP over the 5 other starts in June(Post no-hitter, pre Reed Johnson) prorated to this year.

From The Hardball Times:

It is true that there is more hope than an ordinary projection would suggest, largely on the back of Johan Santana, who was excellent in his first 11 starts (3-2, 2.38 ERA, with a strikeout per inning) before going to pieces (3-7, 8.27 ERA) and being shut down thereafter.

I don't know about no 3.60 ERA but I'm expecting more of the 8.27 Santana ERA. Ordinarily, I'd add that I hope I'm dead wrong, me being a Met fan and all, but this year, I think that I could care less about Santana. In my eyes, I've written him off. I think he's done. Fork done. I actually think it's comical the way many fans were hoping that he could pitch Opening Day. Hope I'm dead wrong, though, what with me being a Met fan and all.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/content/article/five-questions-new-york-mets-2013/

[ashie62]

We can remember....